ALP 3.8%
Incumbent MP
Rob Mitchell, since 2010.
Geography
Northern Victoria. McEwen covers the northern fringe of Melbourne and rural areas further north, including Gisborne, Romsey, Macedon, Whittlesea, Strathewen, Diamond Creek, Woodend and Wallan.
Redistribution
Changes to McEwen were relatively minor – McEwen lost Kilmore to Nicholls, Christmas Hills to Casey and Wollert to Scullin. McEwen gained Kalkallo from Calwell and the remainder of Mernda from Scullin. These changes increased the Labor margin from 3.3% to 3.8%.
History
McEwen was created when the Parliament was expanded in 1984, and was first won by Peter Cleeland of the ALP. The seat has traditionally been considered a marginal seat, although the Liberal Party held it continuously from 1996 until 2010.
Cleeland held on in 1987 before losing to Fran Bailey in 1990. Cleeland returned in 1993 before Bailey defeated him again in 1996. Bailey held on at every election from 1996 to 2010, but never with a great margin. She held on with a 2.2% margin in 1996, 1.0% in 1998 and 1.2% in 2001. She gained a 6.4% margin in 2004, but that melted away in 2007, when her margin was wiped out and the seat became the most marginal seat in the country.
Bailey led for most of the count after the 2007 election but her Labor opponent, Rob Mitchell, was declared the winner by six votes. A full recount gave Bailey a margin of twelve votes. This result was challenged in court and after seven months Bailey was declared the victor with a margin of twenty-seven votes.
In 2010, Bailey retired and Mitchell was comfortably elected.
Mitchell has been re-elected four times.
Assessment
McEwen is a marginal seat and could be in play if the Coalition does well. Mitchell is a strong local member and has weathered the tides here for 15 years but that is no guarantee.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 35,238 | 36.8 | -3.0 | 37.2 |
| Richard Welch | Liberal | 31,796 | 33.2 | -1.8 | 32.7 |
| Neil Barker | Greens | 13,524 | 14.1 | +4.7 | 14.1 |
| Paul Joseph McRae | United Australia | 5,474 | 5.7 | +2.5 | 5.9 |
| Chris Bradbury | One Nation | 5,387 | 5.6 | +0.5 | 5.6 |
| John Herron | Liberal Democrats | 2,579 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Christopher Neil | Federation Party | 1,721 | 1.8 | +1.8 | 1.7 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 3,918 | 3.9 | -1.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Rob Mitchell | Labor | 50,998 | 53.3 | -2.0 | 53.8 |
| Richard Welch | Liberal | 44,721 | 46.7 | +2.0 | 46.2 |
Booths in McEwen have been split into three parts: Central, East and West. The east includes booths in the Nillumbik council area, the centre covers the Whittlesea and Mitchell council areas, and the west covers the Macedon Ranges council area.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 52.1% in the east to 55.9% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 11.3 | 55.9 | 18,180 | 19.7 |
| West | 17.9 | 54.7 | 14,615 | 15.9 |
| East | 17.6 | 52.1 | 12,699 | 13.8 |
| Pre-poll | 12.6 | 53.2 | 25,875 | 28.1 |
| Other votes | 13.3 | 53.3 | 20,794 | 22.6 |
Election results in McEwen at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
The teals/ ind have chances in
Bradfield
Calare
Cowper
Wannon
Likely they win 1 to 2 at most
Reckon alp retain
Reid
Chisholm
Mcewen
Paterson
Parramatta
Blair
Linguari
Liberal
Liberal retain
Hughes
Prob Menzies
Prob. MONASH
Proh. Banks
Prob Moore
I expect most if not all existing teals snd
Independents to be re elected
@Mick Quinlivan I think Liberals will probably gain Chisholm, McEwen, Paterson and Lingiari. Labor should retain Blair and Parramatta is a toss-up for me
Mick Labor will losemore then 3-4 seats that is almost a certainty the teals won’t win wannon. The ind (gee) already holds calare but i do acknowledge he may win but his problem is the teal. If Labor and /or the greens get the teal over the line into the 2cp the teal won’t win. Gees preferences will elect the nationals. However if gee ma,especially the 2cp he could be in a chance as he will get lab and grn preferences. However depending on the threat facing Labor in Western Sydney Labor might horse-race to preference the coalition over the ind/teals as their will be a threat in Western Sydney Watson should be safe due to the controversy of the ind but their will be a threat in Blaxland and maybe McMahon.if carbone runs.
Cowper maybe ind gain but unlikely. The real threat is bradfield. Reid likely Labor retain. Chisholm 50/50. Mcewen Paterson will be lost. Parramatta is reckon will be close either way. Likely the most marginal seat in the country. Blair likely alp retain but I’d say about 51/49 to Labor. Lingiari is one of the most likely gains for liberals. The recent yougov poll doesn’t suggest so but 2 points. 1. That’s a hard seat to poll due to remoteness and turnout. 2. The yougov poll can’t be seen as reliable as it has the libs winning seats like shortland Hunter and coming very close in a handful of seats. Libs will retain all their seats vs Labor. With the eceptionof Leichardt and sturt which could go either way.
@ agreed but Blair is a Toss-up for me
Brisbane 50/50 could go to Labor or liberal. Labor a chance in Griffith too. No chance at fowler. Dai Le too strong. Carbone to win McMahon if he runs.
to me this is the weirdest looking seat in the country and thats why i tried to fix it at the redistribution instead they just made it more weird
McEwen is the ultimate ‘bits and pieces’ electorate – work in from the edges and what is left goes into McEwen. The numbers dictate that it joins together these disparate areas. Not enough to in any direction to end up with a clear community of interest. Can’t think of something similar in another state.
@Redistributed March 16, 2025 at 5:38 pm
Would the Urban-Rural hybrid electorates in WA like Bullwinkel count considering that it’s a mix of outer suburbs like Kalamunda and rural towns like Northam? I don’t think there seems to be a clear community of interest there.
@redistributed not really I clearly showed it could be done. I managed to remove the Macedon ranges from McEwen. A similar thing would be previous Hume which they fixed. To some extent Macquarie and Blair in. qld.
Macquarie was unfixable in my opinion and atm so is Blair based on current numbers unless QLd gains a seat.
@lurking not really there is a some community of interest with a Bullwinkel. People from Kalamunda go to work out in those parts and people from those parts go into Kalamunda/midland for shopping etc. however that seat could have been a purely metropolitan seat but the aec didn’t want to do it that way………
The recent MRP poll here was interesting with this seat still being called as a Labor retain. I’m inclined towards a Liberal gain due to the demographics here and an expected statewide swing to the Coalition but it could end up on a knife edge.
@james it wil be close but im saying Liberal gain based on the fact Victoria is predicted to swing harder then the national avg.
This will be a very close contest I think. The expected swing in Victoria is right around the margin of this seat. On one hand, the geography and demographic of this seat is what is expected to swing even harder than the state average; but on the other hand Rob Mitchell seems to be a strong incumbent who may cancel that out, probably leaving the swing to be more in line with the state average which would result in very close to a 50/50 result on current polling.
Could go either way, I’d probably lean slightly towards a Liberal gain right now, but <1% margin either way.
Seats on margins up to 8%(corangamite) in Victoria are being talked about in victoria
Both leaders have been here which would suggest that this will be close.
This is definitely close. Polling shows there is gonna be a statewide swing away from Labor and I reckon it’ll be more pronounced in the outer suburbs. McEwan ticks both boxes.
I hear that Jacinta Allan is a net negative for the federal Labor brand in Victoria.
Has McEwen gained enough of Melbourne’s outer north to shake the incumbency advantage members have previously enjoyed (Libs hanging on in 07 and Labor in 13)?
This seat get lumped into the rest of the North/West Yarra seats but it’s pretty different. Adjusted to current boundaries Labor actually did 3.8% better in 2022 vs 2007. It’ actually one of the few seats north of the Yarra Labor did better in 2022 vs 2007.
You could make the argument that Fran Bailey was just really popular, and that may be a part of it. Adjusted to current boundaries it voted .3% to the right of Victoria in 2013 vs 1% to the right in 2022. So you could say it’s trending to the right but not really at that crazy of a level. Macedon Ranges and Nillumbik shire might even be trending slightly to the left.
The growth in the southern suburbs probably helps Labor even though these places are probably slowly trending against them. I’d predict a narrow Labor (50.5) win now.
Two weeks to go!
Agree with Drake that it’s an interesting spiral happening where that growth can help Labor in the short-term even as that cohort shifts away. Fascinating to me that fully one-third of the cooker party preferences went to Labor over the Libs in 2022 (while nearly 20% of Green votes went Liberal). Also intriguing that Trumpet of Patriots are not running here – not trying very hard, if you ask me!
I’m not sure if this is a test case for Dutton’s strategy, since it’s a little bit fringe-y to be outer suburbs (feels more like some of the south-west WA seats with almost 30% of voters going Green or cooker in 2022). But I think there will be a larger swing here – and Victoria in general – than my predicted nationwide swing of under 3%. So I’m predicting a very narrow Liberal win. Very narrow.