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The teals/ ind have chances in
Bradfield
Calare
Cowper
Wannon
Likely they win 1 to 2 at most
Reckon alp retain
Reid
Chisholm
Mcewen
Paterson
Parramatta
Blair
Linguari
Liberal
Liberal retain
Hughes
Prob Menzies
Prob. MONASH
Proh. Banks
Prob Moore
I expect most if not all existing teals snd
Independents to be re elected
@Mick Quinlivan I think Liberals will probably gain Chisholm, McEwen, Paterson and Lingiari. Labor should retain Blair and Parramatta is a toss-up for me
Mick Labor will losemore then 3-4 seats that is almost a certainty the teals won’t win wannon. The ind (gee) already holds calare but i do acknowledge he may win but his problem is the teal. If Labor and /or the greens get the teal over the line into the 2cp the teal won’t win. Gees preferences will elect the nationals. However if gee ma,especially the 2cp he could be in a chance as he will get lab and grn preferences. However depending on the threat facing Labor in Western Sydney Labor might horse-race to preference the coalition over the ind/teals as their will be a threat in Western Sydney Watson should be safe due to the controversy of the ind but their will be a threat in Blaxland and maybe McMahon.if carbone runs.
Cowper maybe ind gain but unlikely. The real threat is bradfield. Reid likely Labor retain. Chisholm 50/50. Mcewen Paterson will be lost. Parramatta is reckon will be close either way. Likely the most marginal seat in the country. Blair likely alp retain but I’d say about 51/49 to Labor. Lingiari is one of the most likely gains for liberals. The recent yougov poll doesn’t suggest so but 2 points. 1. That’s a hard seat to poll due to remoteness and turnout. 2. The yougov poll can’t be seen as reliable as it has the libs winning seats like shortland Hunter and coming very close in a handful of seats. Libs will retain all their seats vs Labor. With the eceptionof Leichardt and sturt which could go either way.
@ agreed but Blair is a Toss-up for me
Brisbane 50/50 could go to Labor or liberal. Labor a chance in Griffith too. No chance at fowler. Dai Le too strong. Carbone to win McMahon if he runs.