McEwen – Australia 2025

Despite Rob Mitchell being the member here sense 2010 the margin here isn’t that big however, he has had a near death experience in 2013 although he went into the with a 9% buffer and came out with less 1%. This might be a big call to make but given the small margin and the high part of this electorate having mortgage but, I would say Labor hold only because he’s been tough situations like this before.

@SpaceFish if the Liberals gain any seat from Labor in Victoria it’ll be this.

@Nether Portal
I agree, this electorate and Aston however, I’m not prepared to write Rob Mitchell yet as if you remember the polling here is 2013 had him behind a couple of points, I’m pretty the Liberals threw a lot at it and even Abbott visited a couple of times.

It is a very mixed seat as i discussed with John and Darth Vader a few days ago some parts are mortgage belt. Others are tree change/tealish areas so the mood will be quite different in different parts of the seat.

i think this will be a liberal gain.

I recently read somewhere that the liberals are favourites here and greens are favourites in macnamara il post it when I find it again

John,
Macnamara and McEwen are constantly written off for Labor both are complicated seats seats with very different demographics. I’d say that at moment not to write off either member as both have incumbency and know how to campaign in a marginal seat.

If Labor can’t hold mcewen macnamara and werriwa i can’t see how they even make minority govt. Even a loss in Chisholm would be hard to overcome. Albow will simply be too far behind Dutton and if he’s relying on the greens to prop up his numbers i can’t see hi. Forming a govt with a huge crossbench.

I wouldn’t write Labor off in either but I certainly think they’re under serious threat in both.

@both in their current form are gonna get remodelled sooner or later mcewen is a dog’s breakfast if you want to travel from Macedon to wallan you need to travel through at least 2-3 other electorates. Macedon will get chopped eventuallly helping the libs hold it. That caufield tail will get chopped sooner or later and that will help Labor in macnamara as if it’s a Labor v grn seat Labor should win on liberal preferences until the libs change their mind.

@NP: Agreed. McEwen is the easiest seat for the Liberal Party to gain in Victoria if you do not count the notionally Labor Menzies that has a sitting Liberal MP. If the Liberal Party doesn’t gain McEwen, they won’t gain any other Victorian seat and they will not increase their parliamentary representation from Victoria. Dutton will be under pressure to stand down if the Liberal Party fails to gain seats in Victoria as it shows that he has a huge problem in Victoria.

@josepj in my opinion they will regain menzies (notionally, technically a hold) Aston (technically hold as it was a by election) and likely McEwen in my opinion based off 2022 results. They should also be competitive in Chisholm, Dunkley, Bruce and maybe Hawke and Holt as well. If they can make inroads in thos places and dont win governement they should have no issue winning them in 2028, Isaacs is also another possibility but that will depend on Dreyfus’ retiring in 2028.

I don’t necessarily think that seats the Liberals narrowly miss out on in 2025 will be easier for them to complete the job in 2028. It will depend on the outcome of the 2025 election.

While there is a trend towards the Liberals in outer suburban areas more generally, I think Victoria is a state that for the last few decades is generally only more receptive to voting Liberal when they are not already in government. Especially when Labor are in government at both federal & state level and have been in one or the other for a long time.

So, say Labor hold onto government at the 2025 election, and Labor also win the 2026 state election again, I think the Coalition will almost certainly pick up those seats in 2028.

However, if Dutton manages to win the 2025 election, I think it’s more likely that the Liberals won’t do as well in 2028 as they probably will in 2025.

Similarly, if Dutton wins in 2025 it’s almost certain Labor will win the 2026 state election comfortably; if Albanese holds on in 2025 then 2026 will be much more of a contest.

This seat swung to the Liberals in 2022, a low tide year for them in Victoria. I know swings are never uniform but I’d like to know what is cushioning Labor from a potential 5% statewide swing (on current polling) in a place that trended about 3-4% away from them in the last election cycle and very much fits the profile of an electorate where more granular pollstars are screaming out to Labor that they are bleeding in

Don’t think any seats in Vic are possible to. Change except menzies deakin and Aston. Mcewen will not shift

The lay-by theory does not hold for other seats…. 5% now 2025 and the rest later 2028. Anyone predicting the 2028 result in any way is very brave

@Maxim, what I’m saying is it’s more likely to flip to the Libs in 2025 than there to be some kind of lay-by theory (as Mick nicely puts it) for 2028, if the Liberals win the 2025 election.

ie. If the Libs don’t pick this up in 2025, but still manage to form government, I can’t see them having a better chance in 2028 when the Libs are in government. I think they’d just pick it up in 2025 to be honest.

@Trent, my comment wasn’t targeted at you especially but thanks for clarifying, you’re probably correct.

Although to your point there isn’t a feasible universe where the Liberals fall short here but manage to form government in my opinion

I like the term ‘lay by’ theory – it says it all. As far as 2028 goes – it would be better to say ‘ the conditions are more favourable for a win’ etc. 2028 may be more favourable to the Coalition in some seats IF the Albanese government is reelected particularly in minority as by 2028 it is likely to be worn out. All bets are off should Peter Dutton be PM by 31 December 2025.
Especially as federal governments have always lost seats in their second election – think 1913, 1934, 1951, 1974, 1977, 1984, 1998, 2010, 2016. And in many of those the incumbent has had a nasty scare after a previous comfortable or big win. In contrast, state governments are often elected by a small margin and then have a landslide following.

@mick menzies will shift back to the liberals after becoming notionally labor, deakin will hold and aston will flip back too. the polls indicae about a 5% swing to the Liberals which is outside the margin of error. the Liberals are in the hunt for at least 5 victorian seats. i reckon they will get at least 2 and the others will be close. and the layby theory does hold up as proven in 2010 they won back a heap of seats and got close to govt and were only robbed by 2 turncoats independents. in 2013 they pulled the mat from under labor in 17 seats after 3 years of disfunctional minority govt. this time there will likely be another labro minority govt but far deeper into it with more greens mps, teals and independents add the cost of living crisis continuing on top of that and its a recipe for the biggest majority in australian history and realistically should have won Greenway as well if not for an incompetent candidate. the same will happen this time. and if the greens get their carbon tax back labor will lose badly….

@SpaceFish – In 2013 the boundaries of McEwen included Craigieburn, a heavily-Labor voting area. I’m pretty confident in saying that Craigieburn saved Rob Mitchell in 2013, due to how strong the Labor vote was there.

Link to see the historical boundaries: https://handbook.aph.gov.au/Electorate/McEwen/State/Victoriathe

@Trent the libs arent forming govt without Mcewen

also a reminder tabout the couple points he was behind in 2013 that is well within the margin of error and the seat was only won by 313 votes. and he started with a 9% margin after a favourable redistribution after the 2010 election. his margin is only 3% this time. and while he may survive this time he wont survive another liberal landslide given their likely wont be another redistribution unless vic gains another seat before the 2028 election and even if there were it would likely not be favourable

Lots of people assuming that the swing will be uniform when in reality that hardly happens. Maybe in some parts it will but not everywhere. The same swings that will happen in NSW will not happen in Queensland, or Victoria, or WA for that matter.

McEwen actually had one of the biggest anti-Labor swings in 2013 and still survived, yet many seats on lesser margins fell by smaller swings like Lindsay, Robertson and Dobell, not to mention the likes of Deakin in Victoria. A poll swing is indicative of a presumptive scenario but it doesn’t mean all seats will swing that way. In fact some seats may even swing to the incumbent. It’s not impossible but it’s also less likely for an incumbent in their 2nd election.

@James you’re absolutely right about Craigieburn. Labor won McEwen in 2013 with 50.2% of the TPP vote but if all of the Craigieburn booths were excluded it would’ve been won by the Liberals with 50.7% of the TPP vote.

i think the results will be similar to the 1990 election when labor retained power but lost mcewen. this seat has a history of keeping membres but the govt is gonna lose grond here and i dont think his margin is big enough to withstand the swing thats gonna happen in Victoria.

Reading between the lines this is a must win seat for the forces of darkness if they are to win government. Fran Bailey only just won in 2007 she was obviously a good candidate… Now again all things being equal I think incumbency is the key

@mick seriously forces of darkness?

@ i am practising using entertaining terms… I don’t think the lnp are evil really.
Just misguided

The December 2024 quarterly Newspoll aggregate recorded a Coalition 2PP of 50% in VIC. The estimated Coalition 2PP in VIC in the recent January 2025 Resolve poll was 51.0%. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate recorded a Coalition 2PP of 50.5% in VIC. All these point to a 2PP swing against Labor in Victoria of between 4.8% – 5.8%. As a mixed urban-rural seat, McEwen will be the first Labor seat in Victoria to fall to the Liberals under these numbers, especially considering swings against Labor will be larger in outer suburban and regional areas. McEwen swung against Labor in 2022 despite the unpopularity of Scott Morrison and Rob Mitchell’s personal vote, which indicated the voters of McEwen had been hit hard by the economic depravation caused by the pandemic. The cost of living crisis will only add more pain to McEwen voters’ household budgets. That’s why I think McEwen will be a Liberal gain.

Swings are never uniform, and as we have seen in the 2022 federal election, seats in Melbourne’s East that are relatively well-off, middle-class and highly educated (especially ones with large Chinese-Australian populations) swung hevaily towards Labor, while poor, working class seats in Melbourne’s outer North and West with lower levels of university education swung heavily against Labor.

Similar swings could play out again in the 2025 federal election. In Melbourne’s inner and outer East, the Labor vote could hold up well with minimal swings against Labor, but in the outer north and West there could be large swings against Labor. We could see Labor retaining Chisholm and Aston but losing McEwen. Gorton and Calwell could become marginal Labor seats. Bruce, Holt and Hawke could be knife-edge but Labor is still the favourite to retain all three.

A Labor guy I know was a bit concerned about taking a significant ‘haircut’ in Gorton and Calwell, he didn’t mention Shorten’s seat but Labor did throw some money at it last time when he was no longer the party leader

No way Labor retains Aston even if their vote holds up well in eastern Melbourne, picking off Menzies, Deakin or Casey is way more likely IMO

@joseph McEwen is on my list of Liberal pickups and they should regain Aston as well due to the fact it was won at a high tide by election with factors that are no longer in play. Dutton was an nknown at the time of the by eletion but both and the Liberals have found their footing since. Chisholm should be cloe but barring a landslide i cant se them winning Bruce Holt nad Hawke this time around but they have good prospects in a landslide come 2028.

Labor resources – money and people – are going to be spread very thin this time around. It is possible – and it would be good to know from someone in the area – that they took the western suburbs for granted last time, diverted resources elsewhere and it came back to bite them. They are now in the situation similar to the Liberals that they need to work hard in what were hitherto safe seats. Labor need to sandbag Chisholm, Aston, Wills, Macnamara and McEwen for a start. Cooper, Dunkley, Bruce and possibly Holt will also need to be watched. Frankly, last time, Labor getting so close in Deakin and Menzies was a bonus, they did put serious effort into the seats – in Deakin none. Aston is probably an easier theoretical pick up compared to Menzies – at least they have an MP there. With the polling showing Labors primary vote with a 2 in front – they have a lot of work to do.

I’m wondering if Labor look almost certainly headed to minority government as a best case scenario, and it’s really a matter of preventing the Liberals forming government, they divert resources from Wills and Macnamara (probably much to the dismay of Khalil & Burns) knowing those seats will at least remain with an MP who won’t support or contribute to the Coalition forming government.

Trent
Labor are close enough to an existential crisis about their future without entertaining ideas like that. Why not do the same in Sydney, Grayndler or Cooper (Sorry Tanya, Albo and Ged)? The Greens might think it a good idea but not many others.

Yeah, I agree redistributed, this kind of thinking only comes from Greens supporters who see any chance they can get to leverage Labor. Any advantage Labor might get from additional resourcing would be overpowered by the Liberals flagging a ‘formal Labor/Greens alliance’ which I think would be disastrous in places where Labor are already struggling due to COL pressures.

Also Trent, I think Labor would probably prefer to have the Liberals form Government than get into a formal alliance with the Greens.

Yeah plus once a seat falls from Labor to the Greens they probably have to fight much harder to get it back than if the Liberals win one of the marginals in a good cycle for them

This appears to be even in support of.labor. I suspect Labor retains unless there is a landslide here.

@mick this is not landslide terrritory this is within the margin of error of current polling in vic

@mostly labor will sell their souls to anyone to hold onto government

I don’t think so Darth. There have been enough instances where Labor have needed the Greens, either in a formal or informal partnership, to know 2 things. One is that the Greens are difficult to work with (and that was in an era of more pragmatic Greens leadership) and the second is that Labor votors really, really hate Labor working with the Greens.

@mostly labor cannot govern without the greens in almost every state an federally. they require green support on any legislation the coalition doesnt agree with in the upper house because they dont have enough memebrs to pass partisan legislation. labor would absolutely do a deal with the greens to remain in power as they did last time in 2010