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Very interesting as Labor wins the TPP in this electorate.
@Bob only last election. Historically it’s been a Liberal seat and even after Rebekha Sharkie won the seat for the Centre Alliance in 2016 (then known as the Nick Xenophon Team), the Liberals still often finished first on primaries and ahead of Labor in the TPP contest, but the TCP contest has always been since Sharkie won the seat a CA v Liberal contest. In 2022 it was still CA v Liberal but CA finished first on primaries and Labor finished ahead of the Liberals in the TPP count by a small margin.
In 2019, the Libs threw a lot of resources into the seat when Georgina Downer was the candidate. People on the ground would know but I suspect that the Libs decided it was better to try and save the furniture in Boothby and Sturt.
looks like Sharkie is in trouble for riding her staff too hard. though i doubt it will be enough to unseat her
@John
I agree with you – this seat is Sharkie’s until she retires or commits a serious crime.
Sharkie retain.
This will be an interesting seat when Sharkie retires. Labor is now competitive here so will have incentive to pour resources in. However, the area is fairly independent-minded as it often votes in high numbers for third parties, so a credible independent, or even daresay the Greens, would have good chance to win it too, as would the Liberal party obviously.
For the Greens to increase their chances, they’d need to win or come close in the state seat of Heysen, which would help give them a foothold in the area. The federal Richmond campaign outcome will give people a sense of how good the Greens are at campaigning at more rural areas. In Heysen, they’re not too far off overtaking Labor but I’d definitely favour the Liberal party to hold that seat at this point.