Mayo – Australia 2025

Very interesting as Labor wins the TPP in this electorate.

@Bob only last election. Historically it’s been a Liberal seat and even after Rebekha Sharkie won the seat for the Centre Alliance in 2016 (then known as the Nick Xenophon Team), the Liberals still often finished first on primaries and ahead of Labor in the TPP contest, but the TCP contest has always been since Sharkie won the seat a CA v Liberal contest. In 2022 it was still CA v Liberal but CA finished first on primaries and Labor finished ahead of the Liberals in the TPP count by a small margin.

In 2019, the Libs threw a lot of resources into the seat when Georgina Downer was the candidate. People on the ground would know but I suspect that the Libs decided it was better to try and save the furniture in Boothby and Sturt.

looks like Sharkie is in trouble for riding her staff too hard. though i doubt it will be enough to unseat her

@John

I agree with you – this seat is Sharkie’s until she retires or commits a serious crime.

Sharkie retain.

This will be an interesting seat when Sharkie retires. Labor is now competitive here so will have incentive to pour resources in. However, the area is fairly independent-minded as it often votes in high numbers for third parties, so a credible independent, or even daresay the Greens, would have good chance to win it too, as would the Liberal party obviously.

For the Greens to increase their chances, they’d need to win or come close in the state seat of Heysen, which would help give them a foothold in the area. The federal Richmond campaign outcome will give people a sense of how good the Greens are at campaigning at more rural areas. In Heysen, they’re not too far off overtaking Labor but I’d definitely favour the Liberal party to hold that seat at this point.

This is the least English-speaking seat in Australia. The most is Blaxland.

Seats where under 51% of the population speaks English at home:
1. Blaxland (NSW) (Labor): 24.3% — lowest in Australia
2. Fowler (NSW) (DLFCN): 24.9% — lowest for a non-Labor seat
3. Watson (NSW) (Labor): 30.0%
4. Parramatta (NSW) (Labor): 31.9%
5. Calwell (VIC) (Labor): 35.2% — lowest in Victoria
6. Barton (NSW) (Labor): 37.1%
7. Werriwa (NSW) (Labor): 37.6%
8. Hotham (VIC) (Labor): 38.6%
9. McMahon (NSW) (Labor): 39.2%
10. Fraser (VIC) (Labor): 40.1%
11. Reid (NSW) (Labor): 40.5%
12. Bennelong (NSW) (Labor): 43.6%
13. Gorton (VIC) (Labor): 44.0%
14. Scullin (VIC) (Labor): 44.2%
15. Chisholm (VIC) (Labor): 45.2%
16. Chifley (NSW) (Labor): 46.0%
17. Lalor (VIC) (Labor): 46.9%
18. Bruce (VIC) (Labor): 47.2%
19. Greenway (NSW) (Labor): 47.5%
20. Banks (NSW) (Liberal): 49.1% — lowest for a Coalition seat
21. Lingiari (NT) (Labor): 50.8% — lowest for a non-urban seat, lowest in the NT

Seats where over 88% of the population speaks English at home:
129. Dickson (QLD) (LNP): 88.0%
130. Dobell (NSW) (Labor): 88.1%
131. Casey (VIC) (Liberal): 88.4%
132. Indi (VIC) (Independent): 88.4% — lowest for an independent seat
133. Ballarat (VIC) (Labor): 88.5%
134. Corangamite (VIC) (Liberal): 88.6%
135. Fairfax (QLD) (LNP): 88.7%
136. Fisher (QLD) (LNP): 88.8%
137. Gilmore (NSW) (Labor): 88.8%
138. Monash (VIC) (Liberal): 88.8%
139. Bowman (QLD) (LNP): 88.9%
140. Wannon (VIC) (Liberal): 88.9%
141. Flinders (VIC) (Liberal): 89.0% — highest in Victoria
142. Hinkler (QLD) (LNP): 89.0%
143. Macquarie (NSW) (Labor): 89.3%
144. Wide Bay (QLD) (LNP): 89.4% — highest in Queensland
145. Hunter (NSW) (Labor): 89.9%
146. Braddon (TAS) (Liberal): 90.5% — highest for a Liberal seat
147. Paterson (NSW) (Labor): 90.7%
148. Lyons (TAS) (Labor): 90.7% — highest in Tasmania
149. Shortland (NSW) (Labor): 91.2% — highest for an urban seat, highest for a Labor seat
150. Lyne (NSW) (Nationals): 91.3% — highest for a NSW seat, highest for a Coalition seat, also my old seat
151. Mayo (SA) (CA): 91.5% — highest in Australia

Full table: https://jmp.sh/N8YkR4Yq

There is some numbers there I didn’t expect, thanks NP. Only thing is that you’ve mixed yourself up in your first line.

Lowest by state and territory (overall + Labor):
* ACT: Fenner (Labor): 64.8%
* NSW: Blaxland (Labor): 24.3%
* NT: Lingiari (Labor): 50.8%
* Queensland: Moreton (Labor): 59.6%
* SA: Adelaide (Labor): 60.0%
* Tasmania: Clark (Independent): 76.2%, Franklin (Labor): 86.9%
* Victoria: Calwell (Labor): 35.2%
* WA: Cowan (Labor): 60.9%

Lowest by state or territory (Coalition seats):
* NSW: Banks (Liberal): 49.1%
* Queensland: Leichhardt (LNP): 71.7%
* SA: Sturt (Liberal): 66.3%
* Tasmania: Bass (Liberal): 86.3%
* Victoria: Menzies (Liberal): 52.3%
* WA: Durack (Liberal): 75.0%

Lowest in each non-capital city with multiple seats:
* Central Coast: Robertson (Labor): 86.5%
* Geelong: Corio (Labor): 80.1%
* Gold Coast: Moncrieff (LNP): 74.7%
* Newcastle: Newcastle (Labor): 84.7%
* Sunshine Coast: Fairfax (LNP): 88.7%
* Wollongong: Cunningham (Labor): 78.9%

@Darcy whoops my bad. Blaxland is the least, Mayo is the most.

Lowest by state or territory (Greens seats):
* Queensland: Griffith (75.4%)
* Victoria: Melbourne (57.1%)

Lowest by state or territory (independent seats):
* NSW: North Sydney: 65.9%
* Victoria: Kooyong: 67.4%

Highest by state and territory (overall + Coalition seats):
* ACT: Bean (Labor): 76.3%
* NSW: Lyne (Nationals): 91.3%
* NT: Solomon (Labor): 64.2%
* Queensland: Wide Bay (LNP): 89.4%
* SA: Mayo (CA): 91.5%, Barker (Liberal): 87.3%
* Tasmania: Lyons (Labor): 90.7%, Braddon (Liberal): 90.5%
* Victoria: Flinders (Liberal): 89.0%
* WA: Canning (Liberal): 86.9%

Highest by state (Labor seats):
* NSW: Shortland: 91.2%
* Queensland: Lilley: 80.3%
* SA: Kingston: 87.9%
* Tasmania: Lyons: 90.7%
* Victoria: Corangamite: 88.6%
* WA: Brand: 82.2%

Highest by state or territory (Greens seats):
* Queensland: Ryan (79.4%)

Highest by state or territory (independent seats):
* NSW: Mackellar: 81.7%
* Victoria: Goldstein: 76.1%

Highest by city:
* Adelaide: Kingston (Labor): 87.9%
* Brisbane: Bowman (LNP): 88.9%
* Canberra: Bean (Labor): 76.3%
* Central Coast: Dobell (Labor): 88.1%
* Melbourne: Dunkley (Labor): 84.4%
* Newcastle: Shortland (Labor): 91.2%
* Perth: Moore (Liberal): 86.3%
* Sunshine Coast: Fisher (LNP): 88.8%
* Sydney: Mackellar (Independent): 81.7%
* Wollongong: Whitlam (Labor): 84.9%

Forgot to add for the highest in each city:

* Geelong: Corangamite (Labor): 88.6%
* Gold Coast: McPherson (LNP) (83.8%)

@ Nether Portal
I think you missed McEwen in your table.
I think Mayo may also be the most White seat has it the lowest CALD % and is very low in terms of % indigenous only 1.1% methinks the peri-urban seats such as Flinders, Mayo, Wright, Macquarie maybe the most racially homogenous as the % Indigenous is low while seats like Braddon, Lyons, Paterson have high % of indigenous

@Nimalan if I missed McEwen then whoops but just in case I did 79.8% of McEwen speaks English at home.

You’re right that seats up the North Coast of NSW are actually very Indigenous. I knew lots of Aboriginal kids at school, in fact at one of my schools there was a big Aboriginal family where lots of the students were cousins. Aboriginal people tend to be younger on average so I don’t think there’s anything to say that the Aboriginal population is in decline. I will note most of them are also white, so they might be Aboriginal but also have British or German or Italian heritage.

The Indian community in Port Macquarie which is in Cowper but could be moved back into Lyne eventually is growing so I would expect the white % to drop a bit next census, same as in Coffs Harbour which is in Cowper and will remain in Cowper unless it’s abolished.

@ Nether Portal
Thanks so much for the table much appreciated. I always enjoy your maps/tables as i always like looking at demographics and voting patterns. Interestingly, i never knew anyone who was Aboriginal in school even though i grew up in a diverse area. The indigenous population is only 0.3% in my seat so that makes sense. While @Tommo9 mentioned that places like Mount Barker are growing i dont think it will be easy for first home buyers (from immigrant backgrounds) to purchase in Mayo compared to other parts of Adelaide and with less public transport i think it will be like Wollondilly which is a growth area but very White.

@Nimalan I think it’s similar with coastal areas. Port Macquarie is middle-class, with the average income being higher than that of Lakemba and close to that of Bankstown according to the census. And the census data for Port Macquarie is from the entire city and its inner suburbs (so most of it) so the CBD would be even more than that. The houses there have always been expensive since it is a beachside regional city.

In Thrumster, a suburb of Port Macquarie, the average income is $1,988 as of the 2021 census which is more than Blacktown and Hornsby and is almost equal with Cronulla. Thrumster is a housing estate away from the coast and has semi-rural parts.