Mayo – Australia 2025

Very interesting as Labor wins the TPP in this electorate.

@Bob only last election. Historically it’s been a Liberal seat and even after Rebekha Sharkie won the seat for the Centre Alliance in 2016 (then known as the Nick Xenophon Team), the Liberals still often finished first on primaries and ahead of Labor in the TPP contest, but the TCP contest has always been since Sharkie won the seat a CA v Liberal contest. In 2022 it was still CA v Liberal but CA finished first on primaries and Labor finished ahead of the Liberals in the TPP count by a small margin.

In 2019, the Libs threw a lot of resources into the seat when Georgina Downer was the candidate. People on the ground would know but I suspect that the Libs decided it was better to try and save the furniture in Boothby and Sturt.

looks like Sharkie is in trouble for riding her staff too hard. though i doubt it will be enough to unseat her

@John

I agree with you – this seat is Sharkie’s until she retires or commits a serious crime.

Sharkie retain.

This will be an interesting seat when Sharkie retires. Labor is now competitive here so will have incentive to pour resources in. However, the area is fairly independent-minded as it often votes in high numbers for third parties, so a credible independent, or even daresay the Greens, would have good chance to win it too, as would the Liberal party obviously.

For the Greens to increase their chances, they’d need to win or come close in the state seat of Heysen, which would help give them a foothold in the area. The federal Richmond campaign outcome will give people a sense of how good the Greens are at campaigning at more rural areas. In Heysen, they’re not too far off overtaking Labor but I’d definitely favour the Liberal party to hold that seat at this point.

This is the least English-speaking seat in Australia. The most is Blaxland.

Seats where under 51% of the population speaks English at home:
1. Blaxland (NSW) (Labor): 24.3% — lowest in Australia
2. Fowler (NSW) (DLFCN): 24.9% — lowest for a non-Labor seat
3. Watson (NSW) (Labor): 30.0%
4. Parramatta (NSW) (Labor): 31.9%
5. Calwell (VIC) (Labor): 35.2% — lowest in Victoria
6. Barton (NSW) (Labor): 37.1%
7. Werriwa (NSW) (Labor): 37.6%
8. Hotham (VIC) (Labor): 38.6%
9. McMahon (NSW) (Labor): 39.2%
10. Fraser (VIC) (Labor): 40.1%
11. Reid (NSW) (Labor): 40.5%
12. Bennelong (NSW) (Labor): 43.6%
13. Gorton (VIC) (Labor): 44.0%
14. Scullin (VIC) (Labor): 44.2%
15. Chisholm (VIC) (Labor): 45.2%
16. Chifley (NSW) (Labor): 46.0%
17. Lalor (VIC) (Labor): 46.9%
18. Bruce (VIC) (Labor): 47.2%
19. Greenway (NSW) (Labor): 47.5%
20. Banks (NSW) (Liberal): 49.1% — lowest for a Coalition seat
21. Lingiari (NT) (Labor): 50.8% — lowest for a non-urban seat, lowest in the NT

Seats where over 88% of the population speaks English at home:
129. Dickson (QLD) (LNP): 88.0%
130. Dobell (NSW) (Labor): 88.1%
131. Casey (VIC) (Liberal): 88.4%
132. Indi (VIC) (Independent): 88.4% — lowest for an independent seat
133. Ballarat (VIC) (Labor): 88.5%
134. Corangamite (VIC) (Liberal): 88.6%
135. Fairfax (QLD) (LNP): 88.7%
136. Fisher (QLD) (LNP): 88.8%
137. Gilmore (NSW) (Labor): 88.8%
138. Monash (VIC) (Liberal): 88.8%
139. Bowman (QLD) (LNP): 88.9%
140. Wannon (VIC) (Liberal): 88.9%
141. Flinders (VIC) (Liberal): 89.0% — highest in Victoria
142. Hinkler (QLD) (LNP): 89.0%
143. Macquarie (NSW) (Labor): 89.3%
144. Wide Bay (QLD) (LNP): 89.4% — highest in Queensland
145. Hunter (NSW) (Labor): 89.9%
146. Braddon (TAS) (Liberal): 90.5% — highest for a Liberal seat
147. Paterson (NSW) (Labor): 90.7%
148. Lyons (TAS) (Labor): 90.7% — highest in Tasmania
149. Shortland (NSW) (Labor): 91.2% — highest for an urban seat, highest for a Labor seat
150. Lyne (NSW) (Nationals): 91.3% — highest for a NSW seat, highest for a Coalition seat, also my old seat
151. Mayo (SA) (CA): 91.5% — highest in Australia

Full table: https://jmp.sh/N8YkR4Yq

There is some numbers there I didn’t expect, thanks NP. Only thing is that you’ve mixed yourself up in your first line.

Lowest by state and territory (overall + Labor):
* ACT: Fenner (Labor): 64.8%
* NSW: Blaxland (Labor): 24.3%
* NT: Lingiari (Labor): 50.8%
* Queensland: Moreton (Labor): 59.6%
* SA: Adelaide (Labor): 60.0%
* Tasmania: Clark (Independent): 76.2%, Franklin (Labor): 86.9%
* Victoria: Calwell (Labor): 35.2%
* WA: Cowan (Labor): 60.9%

Lowest by state or territory (Coalition seats):
* NSW: Banks (Liberal): 49.1%
* Queensland: Leichhardt (LNP): 71.7%
* SA: Sturt (Liberal): 66.3%
* Tasmania: Bass (Liberal): 86.3%
* Victoria: Menzies (Liberal): 52.3%
* WA: Durack (Liberal): 75.0%

Lowest in each non-capital city with multiple seats:
* Central Coast: Robertson (Labor): 86.5%
* Geelong: Corio (Labor): 80.1%
* Gold Coast: Moncrieff (LNP): 74.7%
* Newcastle: Newcastle (Labor): 84.7%
* Sunshine Coast: Fairfax (LNP): 88.7%
* Wollongong: Cunningham (Labor): 78.9%

@Darcy whoops my bad. Blaxland is the least, Mayo is the most.

Lowest by state or territory (Greens seats):
* Queensland: Griffith (75.4%)
* Victoria: Melbourne (57.1%)

Lowest by state or territory (independent seats):
* NSW: North Sydney: 65.9%
* Victoria: Kooyong: 67.4%

Highest by state and territory (overall + Coalition seats):
* ACT: Bean (Labor): 76.3%
* NSW: Lyne (Nationals): 91.3%
* NT: Solomon (Labor): 64.2%
* Queensland: Wide Bay (LNP): 89.4%
* SA: Mayo (CA): 91.5%, Barker (Liberal): 87.3%
* Tasmania: Lyons (Labor): 90.7%, Braddon (Liberal): 90.5%
* Victoria: Flinders (Liberal): 89.0%
* WA: Canning (Liberal): 86.9%

Highest by state (Labor seats):
* NSW: Shortland: 91.2%
* Queensland: Lilley: 80.3%
* SA: Kingston: 87.9%
* Tasmania: Lyons: 90.7%
* Victoria: Corangamite: 88.6%
* WA: Brand: 82.2%

Highest by state or territory (Greens seats):
* Queensland: Ryan (79.4%)

Highest by state or territory (independent seats):
* NSW: Mackellar: 81.7%
* Victoria: Goldstein: 76.1%

Highest by city:
* Adelaide: Kingston (Labor): 87.9%
* Brisbane: Bowman (LNP): 88.9%
* Canberra: Bean (Labor): 76.3%
* Central Coast: Dobell (Labor): 88.1%
* Melbourne: Dunkley (Labor): 84.4%
* Newcastle: Shortland (Labor): 91.2%
* Perth: Moore (Liberal): 86.3%
* Sunshine Coast: Fisher (LNP): 88.8%
* Sydney: Mackellar (Independent): 81.7%
* Wollongong: Whitlam (Labor): 84.9%

Forgot to add for the highest in each city:

* Geelong: Corangamite (Labor): 88.6%
* Gold Coast: McPherson (LNP) (83.8%)

@ Nether Portal
I think you missed McEwen in your table.
I think Mayo may also be the most White seat has it the lowest CALD % and is very low in terms of % indigenous only 1.1% methinks the peri-urban seats such as Flinders, Mayo, Wright, Macquarie maybe the most racially homogenous as the % Indigenous is low while seats like Braddon, Lyons, Paterson have high % of indigenous

@Nimalan if I missed McEwen then whoops but just in case I did 79.8% of McEwen speaks English at home.

You’re right that seats up the North Coast of NSW are actually very Indigenous. I knew lots of Aboriginal kids at school, in fact at one of my schools there was a big Aboriginal family where lots of the students were cousins. Aboriginal people tend to be younger on average so I don’t think there’s anything to say that the Aboriginal population is in decline. I will note most of them are also white, so they might be Aboriginal but also have British or German or Italian heritage.

The Indian community in Port Macquarie which is in Cowper but could be moved back into Lyne eventually is growing so I would expect the white % to drop a bit next census, same as in Coffs Harbour which is in Cowper and will remain in Cowper unless it’s abolished.

@ Nether Portal
Thanks so much for the table much appreciated. I always enjoy your maps/tables as i always like looking at demographics and voting patterns. Interestingly, i never knew anyone who was Aboriginal in school even though i grew up in a diverse area. The indigenous population is only 0.3% in my seat so that makes sense. While @Tommo9 mentioned that places like Mount Barker are growing i dont think it will be easy for first home buyers (from immigrant backgrounds) to purchase in Mayo compared to other parts of Adelaide and with less public transport i think it will be like Wollondilly which is a growth area but very White.

@Nimalan I think it’s similar with coastal areas. Port Macquarie is middle-class, with the average income being higher than that of Lakemba and close to that of Bankstown according to the census. And the census data for Port Macquarie is from the entire city and its inner suburbs (so most of it) so the CBD would be even more than that. The houses there have always been expensive since it is a beachside regional city.

In Thrumster, a suburb of Port Macquarie, the average income is $1,988 as of the 2021 census which is more than Blacktown and Hornsby and is almost equal with Cronulla. Thrumster is a housing estate away from the coast and has semi-rural parts.

Sa is really a building disaster area for the liberals.. this election Sturt is completive. In the next 1 to 2 elections the alp may be in with a show.
Think this largely overlaps the state seat of Mawson

The implosion of the Centre Alliance in SA is wild. They went from being a real third party across SA (something unseen in Australia but widely seen in Europe) back in 2016 federally and in 2018 on the state level but after Nick Xenophon left things went downhill very quickly, basically becoming irrelevant outside of Mayo in 2019 and even more so in 2022.

NXT primary vote across SA in 2016:

* Statewide: 21.3% — third
* Adelaide (Labor): 12.9% — third
* Barker (Liberal): 29.1% (45.3% TCP) — second
* Boothby (Liberal): 20.7% — third
* Grey (Liberal): 27.7% (48.0% TCP) — second
* Hindmarsh (Labor): 15.1% — third
* Kingston (Labor): 17.2% — third
* Makin (Labor): 16.6% — third
* Mayo (NXT): 34.9% (55.0% TCP) — second (won on preferences)
* Port Adelaide (Labor): 18.7% (35.1% TCP) — second
* Sturt (Liberal): 21.2% — third
* Wakefield (Labor): 20.4% — third

CA primary vote across SA in 2019:
* Statewide: 4.4% (–16.9%) — fourth
* Barker (Liberal): 2.9% (–25.7%) — fifth
* Grey (Liberal): 5.2% (–21.6%) — fourth
* Mayo: 34.2% (+1.3%) (55.1% (–2.2%) TCP) — second (won on preferences)

CA primary vote across SA in 2022:
* Statewide: 3.3% (–1.1%) — sixth
* Mayo (CA): 31.4% (–2.8%) (62.3% (+7.1%) TCP) — first

Does anyone know why CA flopped so badly? A swing of –16.9% against a minor party is diabolical.

And is Australia too accustomed to the two-party system for a third party to be a real force with appeal across the country or across a state or territory? Besides the Greens in the ACT there really are no third parties because while the Greens poll well in the inner-city they don’t in rural areas, and while One Nation poll well in rural areas they barely get any votes in the inner-city.

Labor has won the ttp, if Rebekha Sharkie were to retire who would pickup the seat.

It might be competitive between the two majors if Sharkie weren’t running.

The SA state electoral map shows Mawson (McLaren Vale to Kangaroo Island) as safe Labor whilst all the other state seats are Liberal. The Adelaide Hills and Mount Lofty Ranges are teal or moderate liberal.

@Spacefish @Votante I’d say it’d go back to the Liberals.

Mawson is usually a marginal seat by the way, it just has a popular Labor incumbent. The SA Liberals still should target it.

@NP – Centre Alliance had a massive drop in vote in 2019 for a few reasons.

1. The party had a bit of a disappointing state election in 2018. They were expected to win a few seats (including Hartley where Nick Xenophon was running), yet ended up with 0 in the Legislative Assembly, though did win seats in the Legislative Council.
2. The Nick Xenophon Team was renamed to Centre Alliance before 2019 elections. Nick Xenophon was a very recognisable figure, but his name being gone maybe made some voters switch party due to thinking the NXT had dissolved.
3. Those factors meant a big withdrawal in resources to SA seats. I believe they didn’t run in any Adelaide seats, and I believe only contested the rural seats and Mayo. Their vote dropped 25% in Barker, 21% in Grey. Mayo had a sitting MP in Rebekha Sharkie who was relatively popular, and alongside the demographic change in the Adelaide Hills meant Sharkie was always expected to hold, even despite her part collapsing overall.

@James thanks for the info. I agree that while in 2018 they got lots of votes they didn’t win any seats and that was a major loss for their cause.

What’s interesting is they did best in a mix of two areas: rural seats and affluent/moderate seats (with the exception of Adelaide where they did poorly despite it having small-l-liberal areas). Maybe the state Liberals being clearly moderate helped this whereas the federal Liberals while moderating at the time still had some other influences.