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i think this will be lineball
Alp favourite here
@bentley yes but on a greatly reduced margin
From what I heard and read, the last Liberal candidate was a controversial one.
The swings to Labor were huge, even double-digit swings, in Windsor, Richmond and surrounding areas like Kurrajong and Bilpin. Coincidentally, they were hit hardest by floods and submerged bridges and cut-off roads last term, so the natural disasters may’ve been an issue last election.
@votante i think macquarie followed the rest of nsw in pumping up the labor vte but it may have helped here. Labor is popular in Blue Mountains Liberals in Hawkesbury. the new area of Emu Plains is Liberal. I reckon Labor retain on reduced margin but a 2028 target for the Libs.
The Emu Plains part having a strong Lib vote could be due to the member for Lindsay’s personal vote. There may be a swing to Labor in Emu Plains whilst there’s a swing back to the Libs in the Hawkesbury.
The YouGov poll released today shows that there’s likely going to be a very close race in Macquarie. I think 50-50.
Pretty dumbfounded if the Liberals won considering the gentrification in the Blue Mountains making things a lot worse for them. I predict Templeman will hang on but to be honest I don’t really know what the final result will be.
Pls link
MRP polling doesn’t take into account the MP’s personal vote nor local factors nor electioneering. It gives estimates adjusted by various combinations of socio-demographic attributes such as income levels, age groups and gender. This means that it predicts outer-suburban electorates in the same state and with similar demographics will swing the same way.
I can’t see Macquarie flipping just like MacArthur the most personal vote will likely save them
I doubt it will flip but will likely tighten because Labor overperformed last time due to reasons I mentioned in my first post.
I agree an individual seat poll can be very unreliable. Mrp is basically an extension of that.
It is only of value assessing global percentages ie primary votes and 2pp
Agreed seat polling is less reliable than national polling. MRP is effectively guesswork based on demographics.
The feeling here is that it’s close and the only thing keeping Labor in it is Templeman’s local profile.
It’s true that it’s gentrified in the Blue Mountain parts, but possibly as prices go up that gentrification is starting to tilt to more to the right. On top of this, the economic environment and Albanese himself is not appealing.
On top of that adding Emu Plains on top of around here in Windsor is really pushing the seat into a Liberal leaning one. These areas are affordable to young professionals and tradies with their families.