To provide the best experiences, we use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Consenting to these technologies will allow us to process data such as browsing behavior or unique IDs on this site. Not consenting or withdrawing consent, may adversely affect certain features and functions.
The technical storage or access is strictly necessary for the legitimate purpose of enabling the use of a specific service explicitly requested by the subscriber or user, or for the sole purpose of carrying out the transmission of a communication over an electronic communications network.
The technical storage or access is necessary for the legitimate purpose of storing preferences that are not requested by the subscriber or user.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for statistical purposes.
The technical storage or access that is used exclusively for anonymous statistical purposes. Without a subpoena, voluntary compliance on the part of your Internet Service Provider, or additional records from a third party, information stored or retrieved for this purpose alone cannot usually be used to identify you.
The technical storage or access is required to create user profiles to send advertising, or to track the user on a website or across several websites for similar marketing purposes.
Unlock with Patreon
i think this will be lineball
Alp favourite here
@bentley yes but on a greatly reduced margin
From what I heard and read, the last Liberal candidate was a controversial one.
The swings to Labor were huge, even double-digit swings, in Windsor, Richmond and surrounding areas like Kurrajong and Bilpin. Coincidentally, they were hit hardest by floods and submerged bridges and cut-off roads last term, so the natural disasters may’ve been an issue last election.
@votante i think macquarie followed the rest of nsw in pumping up the labor vte but it may have helped here. Labor is popular in Blue Mountains Liberals in Hawkesbury. the new area of Emu Plains is Liberal. I reckon Labor retain on reduced margin but a 2028 target for the Libs.
The Emu Plains part having a strong Lib vote could be due to the member for Lindsay’s personal vote. There may be a swing to Labor in Emu Plains whilst there’s a swing back to the Libs in the Hawkesbury.
The YouGov poll released today shows that there’s likely going to be a very close race in Macquarie. I think 50-50.
Pretty dumbfounded if the Liberals won considering the gentrification in the Blue Mountains making things a lot worse for them. I predict Templeman will hang on but to be honest I don’t really know what the final result will be.
Pls link
MRP polling doesn’t take into account the MP’s personal vote nor local factors nor electioneering. It gives estimates adjusted by various combinations of socio-demographic attributes such as income levels, age groups and gender. This means that it predicts outer-suburban electorates in the same state and with similar demographics will swing the same way.
I can’t see Macquarie flipping just like MacArthur the most personal vote will likely save them
I doubt it will flip but will likely tighten because Labor overperformed last time due to reasons I mentioned in my first post.
I agree an individual seat poll can be very unreliable. Mrp is basically an extension of that.
It is only of value assessing global percentages ie primary votes and 2pp
Agreed seat polling is less reliable than national polling. MRP is effectively guesswork based on demographics.
The feeling here is that it’s close and the only thing keeping Labor in it is Templeman’s local profile.
It’s true that it’s gentrified in the Blue Mountain parts, but possibly as prices go up that gentrification is starting to tilt to more to the right. On top of this, the economic environment and Albanese himself is not appealing.
On top of that adding Emu Plains on top of around here in Windsor is really pushing the seat into a Liberal leaning one. These areas are affordable to young professionals and tradies with their families.
The upper Blue Mountains (Wentworth Falls to Blackheath) are a magnet for tree-changers and those seeking an alternative lifestyle. The area is politically left-leaning but the Greens vote has been surpressed by Labor. In Katoomba, there’s a hipster vibe.
Emu Plains is interesting. It’s a part of Penrith LGA and therefore Western Sydney. T1 trains terminate in Emu Plains. Trains go to Parramatta and the city more frequently than from Glenbrook or Lapstone. The voting differences between Emu Plains and the lower Blue Mountains is like night and day.
The Hawkesbury part could be the most swingy. In 2022, there were double-digit swings in Windsor, Richmond and surrounding areas like Kurrajong. The vote would calibrate in part because of the Labor over-performance last time and also cost of living. South of the Hawkesbury River are more mortgage holders and young families.
My perception (based on (highly fallible) memory) is that in her physical mail, Facebook posts, and quotes in the local paper, Susan Templeman has more often than not led with the Hawkesbury before the Blue Mountains when promoting place-based issues, benefits of government policy, her advocacy in parliament, etc., during this term. I think she’s been making a sustained effort through her comms to consolidate/defend the swing she achieved in that half of the electorate in 2022.
Her office is in Windsor. Also, her vote is the weakest in Hawkesbury. The current Liberal candidate is a Hawkesbury councillor.
I thought her office was in Lawson? I have often driven past it there. She must have two which is unusual for an electorate that isn’t that big.
I just Googled it. There’s two of them. APH and her website say her office is in Windsor.
@Adam – yes while Macquarie is very small in comparison to electorates with multiple electorate offices (Calare, Parkes etc.) Macquarie has very different ends, in terms of demographics and also physical population. There aren’t a lot of links from the Hawkesbury to the Blue Mountains so two electorate offices in each end is fair.
Zali Steggle has offices in Manly and Mosman
They are divided by the Spit Bridge so it make sense
Mps with large electorates have more then 1 office for obvious reasons they can’t expect constituents at one end of the seat to travel to the other end if that’s where their office is