Macnamara – Australia 2025

ALP 12.2%

Incumbent MP
Josh Burns, since 2019.

Geography

Inner south of Melbourne. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park, Windsor and South Melbourne.

Redistribution
Macnamara lost South Yarra to Melbourne, and gained Windsor from Higgins. This change did not affect the two-party-preferred Labor margin, but it slightly weakened Labor and slightly strengthened the Greens and Liberal on the three-candidate-preferred count.

History
Melbourne Ports was an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins. The seat was renamed “Macnamara” in 2019.

Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.

Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.

Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.

Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.

Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.

Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. Labor candidate Josh Burns won Macnamara in 2019, and Burns was re-elected in 2022.

Candidates

Assessment
Macnamara was a very close and complex count in 2022, which is not at all reflected in the safe Labor two-party-preferred margin. The more important point in the count was the three-candidate-preferred count, which determined who out of Labor, Liberal or Greens would be excluded from the final count. That count has been included in the below results tables.

If Labor made it into the top two, they were expected to easily win on preferences of whichever candidate came third – Liberal or Greens – but if Labor dropped into third their preferences would elect the Greens.

This likely will still be the case in 2025. The parties were extremely close to a three-way tie in 2022. A swing away from Labor would likely see the Greens win, but it’s entirely possible that the Greens could lose ground and remain in third place.

The race is made even more complex due to Labor’s decision to issue an open ticket, not recommending preferences. We don’t know how Labor preferences will flow in such a scenario.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Josh Burns Labor 29,552 31.8 +0.9 31.7
Steph Hodgins-May Greens 27,587 29.7 +5.5 29.7
Colleen Harkin Liberal 26,976 29.0 -9.7 29.1
Jane Hickey United Australia 2,062 2.2 +1.0 2.2
Rob McCathie Liberal Democrats 1,946 2.1 +2.1 2.1
John B Myers Independent 1,835 2.0 +2.0 1.9
Ben Schultz Animal Justice 1,724 1.9 -0.1 1.8
Debera Anne One Nation 1,349 1.5 +1.5 1.4
Others 0.1
Informal 3,302 3.4 -0.4

2022 three-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Colleen Harkin Liberal 31,327 33.7 -5.8 33.8
Josh Burns Labor 31,149 33.5 +0.3 33.4
Steph Hodgins-May Greens 30,555 32.8 +5.5 32.9

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Josh Burns Labor 57,911 62.2 +7.3 62.2
Colleen Harkin Liberal 35,120 37.8 -7.3 37.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.

The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with a vote ranging from 29.4% in Caulfield to 40.7% in St Kilda.

Labor’s vote was much more consistent, ranging from 31.6% in Caulfield to 32.5% in St Kilda.

The Liberal vote ranged from 17.4% in St Kilda to 30.8% in Caulfield.

Voter group GRN prim ALP prim LIB prim Total votes % of votes
St Kilda 40.7 32.5 17.4 15,001 16.1
Port Melbourne 29.8 32.4 28.7 13,913 14.9
Caulfield 29.4 31.6 30.8 6,983 7.5
Pre-poll 29.3 31.6 29.6 32,473 34.7
Other votes 23.6 30.8 35.2 25,091 26.8

Election results in Macnamara at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.

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314 COMMENTS

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  2. Micheal danby has created his own second htv with the words “how to stop the greens” and has stated they will have someone on every polling booth in macnamara

  3. Gympie, Yes true about nations near Israel but Israel pretends to be a democracy but its not with sme woth out full votong rights and a deranged

    Gympie – Israel pretends it is a democracy but it is not with its oppressive IDF (on non Jews) and a political system that is similar to the former aparthide South Africa.

  4. Sorry about the first sentence in my last as the computer has a mind of its own saving my typos before i corrected them.

  5. Whilst true that’s only a result of extremist Muslims trying to wipe them out and they play on people’s fears.

  6. It was big news in 2016 that Danby handed out an unauthorised (by Labor) HTVC to Jewish voters in Caulfield that had Libs above Greens.

    As early as 2013 his entire campaigns had been targeted against the Greens rather than the Libs.

    Nothing new here. Danby had made the Greens and their view on Israel the focus of his campaign for a long, long time.

    It’s why I’ve said the whole time that it won’t make a bit difference here.

    The Jewish community is 10%. I reckon more than 5% of that is already LIB. There are some non-Zionist Jews among the 10% too.

    So we’re looking at 3-4%? Most of those Labor voters among them are probably the biggest demographic who already preferenced the Libs above Greens.

    So what’s to gain? Not much. The non-Jewish community is where votes will change. Other than maybe a small ALP-LIB swing in that community due to Labor’s UN votes, the other 90% of the electorate will vote on other issues.

    Only one party hasn’t been focused (locally at least) on that foreign conflict. Burns and Saulo entirely have.

  7. Yeah that’s been up for a while. Online response seems to be a mix of left wing voters opposing them and rusted on Libs supporting it. Don’t think it’ll change many votes.

  8. Marion Smedley who ran for the Greens in South Barwon at the 2018 State election has endorsed the campaign and said the Greens have been hijacked by extremists.

  9. As much as I get why Burns may have done this, he could’ve just done the standard by preferencing the Greens 2nd, cop it on the chin from whoever in the Jewish community that wanted him to preference the Liberals and shut the gobs of Lupton and Danby and co. Ultimately he wants to win this seat from the Greens but he doesn’t want his swingy voters to go that way either and by giving into that pressure it gives the Greens an opportunity to sneak through on preferences. It’s just a really bad position that he’s found himself in wedged between the Greens and the extreme pro-Israel groups.

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