ALP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Josh Burns, since 2019.
Inner south of Melbourne. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park, Windsor and South Melbourne.
Redistribution
Macnamara lost South Yarra to Melbourne, and gained Windsor from Higgins. This change did not affect the two-party-preferred Labor margin, but it slightly weakened Labor and slightly strengthened the Greens and Liberal on the three-candidate-preferred count.
History
Melbourne Ports was an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins. The seat was renamed “Macnamara” in 2019.
Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.
Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.
Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.
Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.
Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.
Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. Labor candidate Josh Burns won Macnamara in 2019, and Burns was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Macnamara was a very close and complex count in 2022, which is not at all reflected in the safe Labor two-party-preferred margin. The more important point in the count was the three-candidate-preferred count, which determined who out of Labor, Liberal or Greens would be excluded from the final count. That count has been included in the below results tables.
If Labor made it into the top two, they were expected to easily win on preferences of whichever candidate came third – Liberal or Greens – but if Labor dropped into third their preferences would elect the Greens.
This likely will still be the case in 2025. The parties were extremely close to a three-way tie in 2022. A swing away from Labor would likely see the Greens win, but it’s entirely possible that the Greens could lose ground and remain in third place.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 29,552 | 31.8 | +0.9 | 31.7 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 27,587 | 29.7 | +5.5 | 29.7 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 26,976 | 29.0 | -9.7 | 29.1 |
| Jane Hickey | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.2 | +1.0 | 2.2 |
| Rob McCathie | Liberal Democrats | 1,946 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| John B Myers | Independent | 1,835 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.9 |
| Ben Schultz | Animal Justice | 1,724 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Debera Anne | One Nation | 1,349 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 3,302 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 31,327 | 33.7 | -5.8 | 33.8 |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 31,149 | 33.5 | +0.3 | 33.4 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 30,555 | 32.8 | +5.5 | 32.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 57,911 | 62.2 | +7.3 | 62.2 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 35,120 | 37.8 | -7.3 | 37.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.
The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with a vote ranging from 29.4% in Caulfield to 40.7% in St Kilda.
Labor’s vote was much more consistent, ranging from 31.6% in Caulfield to 32.5% in St Kilda.
The Liberal vote ranged from 17.4% in St Kilda to 30.8% in Caulfield.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| St Kilda | 40.7 | 32.5 | 17.4 | 15,001 | 16.1 |
| Port Melbourne | 29.8 | 32.4 | 28.7 | 13,913 | 14.9 |
| Caulfield | 29.4 | 31.6 | 30.8 | 6,983 | 7.5 |
| Pre-poll | 29.3 | 31.6 | 29.6 | 32,473 | 34.7 |
| Other votes | 23.6 | 30.8 | 35.2 | 25,091 | 26.8 |
Election results in Macnamara at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
Jewish voters are a significant but at 12% of the roll are not necessarily a decisive constituency in whether Labor or the Greens win in Macnamara. Jews are not a monolith and do not vote solely vote on a party’s position on Israel/Palestine. Greens positions have probably already been factored in the Jewish and broader vote over the years so doubt Israel/Palestine will have as big an impact here as people assume it will.
I totally agree Malcolm.
The biggest threat to Josh Burns is a general ALP to Liberal swing, reflecting Labor’s decline in support in Victoria since 2022 and a far better Liberals candidate who is actually campaigning, which drops him to third place.
If anything, the uncompetitive position of the Liberals and framing a vote for Labor as the only way to keep the Greens out is probably his best chance to contain that swing and perhaps even pick up some Zionist Liberal voters who might vote tactically to not risk the Greens. It helps him consolidate the non-Greens vote.
I don’t know why the party would throw that away by doing something as silly as making the Liberals a viable, competitive alternative and having to then compete on both flanks.
(Far better Liberal candidate compared to 2022 is what I meant, not compared to Josh Burns)
@Trent One thing that I will say that could determine how big (or small) the swings will be this time around is whether Josh Burns has a personal vote and whether or not he’s been a good MP or not.
I’ve noticed that at least for Macnamara, I haven’t seen a lot of sniping or gaslighting between the main candidates, well not yet anyway. I see that Josh Burns seems to be doing his own thing and promoting hisrecord and community connections rather than talk excessively about Greens and the Liberals, which was unlike his predecessor who sniped the Greens nonstop for eons. He seems quite competent and outspoken for his community and I don’t think he’s going to get any hate votes and could potentially benefit from any votes that could go from Greens to Labor directly (of which there definitely will be).
As I said before, Labor just needs to stay in 2nd place at least when it gets to 3CP and he’ll make it.
Yeah even as a mostly Greens voters myself, Josh Burns is a good, active, respectful MP. He doesn’t lower himself to the level that Michael Danby did. He doesn’t snipe, or attack opponents really at all.
In the 2022 race, him and Steph Hodgins-May actually seemed to have a very mutually respectful, friendly competition between them. You could see at candidate events they actually agreed on most things and genuinely seemed to get along.
Like in 2022, while I will vote Greens, I’ll also be happy if Josh Burns retains as well. He is a good MP and I think a very decent person.
Labor are certainly at no risk whatsoever of losing a 2CP race, should they stay in the 2CP. That’s a given, and they will win a 2CP comfortably against either opponent.
I just feel like Burns’ biggest risk of dropping out of the 2CP would come from an ALP to LIB swing moreso than an ALP to GRN swing (the Greens’ vote will likely be stagnant or reduce a little), and his best way to contain any potential ALP to LIB swing is to paint the Liberals as uncompetitive and a vote for the Liberals as risking the Greens.
If they run an open ticket, they make the Liberals competitive (not in a 2CP against him but against the Greens) which would undermine that, give the Liberal campaign momentum, and probably increase their vote at his expense making it more likely he misses the 2CP. It’d be very dumb.
Trent,
I think the problem Labor has in a seat like this, is that if they’re trying to claim the Greens are too extreme/radical/ anti-Semitic/supporting of terrorism/whatever, it will just raise the question “Well why are you preferencing them and giving them chances to win, then?”
An open ticket at least gives them some way out of that bind.
@Mark, but they are arguing similar about Dutton & the Liberals to. Not about anti-Semitism but more broadly about his Trump-like agenda being extreme, and that is more relevant to ALL of the electorate, not just 10% of it.
The Jewish community is very tight-knit with a lot of effective ways to get a message across to that 10% (between Jewish news, synagogue services, community leaders, school newsletters, etc).
It would be very easy for Labor & Burns to formulate a clear message to that 10% of the electorate about WHY a traditional HTVC preferencing the Greens is the best chance of keeping the Greens in third place, while explaining they don’t have to follow it anyway, and that it’s a tactical decision because making the Liberals competitive actually increases the chance of a LIB v GRN count (which even with an open ticket the Greens would still be favoured in).
In short – that 10% tight knit Jewish community is much easier to communicate a message & strategy to, that not only explains the preference decision but encourages a tactical vote, than having to justify to the other 90% of the electorate (in the face of attacks by the Greens) why they have made a decision to make the Liberals competitive.