ALP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Josh Burns, since 2019.
Inner south of Melbourne. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park, Windsor and South Melbourne.
Redistribution
Macnamara lost South Yarra to Melbourne, and gained Windsor from Higgins. This change did not affect the two-party-preferred Labor margin, but it slightly weakened Labor and slightly strengthened the Greens and Liberal on the three-candidate-preferred count.
History
Melbourne Ports was an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins. The seat was renamed “Macnamara” in 2019.
Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.
Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.
Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.
Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.
Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.
Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. Labor candidate Josh Burns won Macnamara in 2019, and Burns was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Macnamara was a very close and complex count in 2022, which is not at all reflected in the safe Labor two-party-preferred margin. The more important point in the count was the three-candidate-preferred count, which determined who out of Labor, Liberal or Greens would be excluded from the final count. That count has been included in the below results tables.
If Labor made it into the top two, they were expected to easily win on preferences of whichever candidate came third – Liberal or Greens – but if Labor dropped into third their preferences would elect the Greens.
This likely will still be the case in 2025. The parties were extremely close to a three-way tie in 2022. A swing away from Labor would likely see the Greens win, but it’s entirely possible that the Greens could lose ground and remain in third place.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 29,552 | 31.8 | +0.9 | 31.7 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 27,587 | 29.7 | +5.5 | 29.7 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 26,976 | 29.0 | -9.7 | 29.1 |
| Jane Hickey | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.2 | +1.0 | 2.2 |
| Rob McCathie | Liberal Democrats | 1,946 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| John B Myers | Independent | 1,835 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.9 |
| Ben Schultz | Animal Justice | 1,724 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Debera Anne | One Nation | 1,349 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 3,302 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 31,327 | 33.7 | -5.8 | 33.8 |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 31,149 | 33.5 | +0.3 | 33.4 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 30,555 | 32.8 | +5.5 | 32.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 57,911 | 62.2 | +7.3 | 62.2 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 35,120 | 37.8 | -7.3 | 37.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.
The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with a vote ranging from 29.4% in Caulfield to 40.7% in St Kilda.
Labor’s vote was much more consistent, ranging from 31.6% in Caulfield to 32.5% in St Kilda.
The Liberal vote ranged from 17.4% in St Kilda to 30.8% in Caulfield.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| St Kilda | 40.7 | 32.5 | 17.4 | 15,001 | 16.1 |
| Port Melbourne | 29.8 | 32.4 | 28.7 | 13,913 | 14.9 |
| Caulfield | 29.4 | 31.6 | 30.8 | 6,983 | 7.5 |
| Pre-poll | 29.3 | 31.6 | 29.6 | 32,473 | 34.7 |
| Other votes | 23.6 | 30.8 | 35.2 | 25,091 | 26.8 |
Election results in Macnamara at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
They would never do that as there’s no real benefit.
Within Macnamara, yes it would go down well in the Jewish community where they want to minimise a swing to the Liberals, but that’s only 12% of the electorate and already where the Libs do best. So realistically there probably isn’t a whole lot of benefit in terms of swinging/saving votes, there’s a much bigger risk of losing votes over it, or not regaining ALP/GRN swing voters who voted Greens last time and might return.
Probably more importantly, outside Macnamara, imagine the backlash in seats like Wills if word got out they were preferencing the Liberals?
I don’t know that is necessarily the case. I think the ALP/Green swing voter is a lot smaller in number than many would have you believe. It seems that even in Prahran a large proportion of Labor voters has stayed at home rather than vote for the Greens (and not the first data point here either), suggesting the losses are probably very small (if you are going to get the hump over the ALP not directing preferences to the Greens you probably already vote Greens) and the simple act of signalling you are anti the Greens might even bring home a number of voters who have moved away. I also doubt it would hurt Labor that much as how many Greens voters will preference the Libs in a fit of pique?
Also, I have seen nothing that says the Greens position on Gaza has been a vote winner, so I am not sure even in Wills putting the Greens last would be electoral poison.
I tend to think those arguments almost never come from Labor partisans but from Greens partisans (and I am not suggesting this is you Trent) who want to use it as a bargaining chip to get the ALP to accept some of their positions.
@mlv if they do that they will lose
I think this will be a Labor retain. I think Josh Burns will have gained a reasonable personal vote for prominently speaking out against antisemitism. He also strategically speaks out on certain issues like the environment to create the impression that he runs to the left of Labor. That kind of thing is very popular with the professional class so I think they will give him credit for “pushing the Labor party to the left” and punish the Greens for being too “extreme”. The Green vote probably hit a peak in 2022 so will go down; the Liberal vote will probably recover somewhat, and Josh Burns as the incumbent can probably have confidence that his vote will hold up and remain ahead of the Greens.
@Greens Political Party Supporter March 10, 2025 at 9:54 pm
From what I remember, Burns barely won Macnamara in the 3CP race against the Greens by 200 votes, if the Greens overtook him, it would’ve been them who’d gain the seat off Labor preferences rather than Burns retaining off Greens preferences.
Regardless of if Burns has a reasonable personal vote, there’s a 5% swing away from Labor in VIC. Even accounting for the fact that there will be less of a swing against Labor in Inner Metro seats, Burns would need to lose very little votes in the 3CP race against the Liberals and Greens, bc if Labor loses more than 200 votes, the Greens will overtake Labor in the 3CP count and win Macnamara in 2PP count off Labor preferences.
@Drake: Labor 55% 2PP is unrealistically low. Current polling aggregate only shows a 5.6% statewide swing against Labor in Victoria. A 55% Labor 2PP in Macnamara would be equivalent to a 7.2% 2PP swing against Labor, above the statewide average. A highly-educated and high-income inner urban seat like Macnamara is not going to record an above average statewide 2PP swing against Labor.
@trent: A Greens 2CP in the 54-55% range is also unrealistically low. Assuming Labor to Greens preference flow is weaker than Greens to Labor preference flow, a Greens 2CP in the 54-55% range would be equivalent to a Labor 2PP in the 55-56% range. A 56% Labor 2PP in Macnamara would be equivalent to a 6.2% 2PP swing against Labor, still above the statewide average. As I have said, Macnamara is not going to record an above average statewide 2PP swing against Labor.
Reportage today that puts greens 2 percentage points ahead of Labor at 3CP here, following a 6 point primary drop for Labor.
https://www.ntnews.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=NTWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ntnews.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Ffederal-election%2Fnew-poll-reveals-greens-are-facing-a-federal-election-wipeout%2Fnews-story%2F35c427b0f840dc5b1a1d83dd2d728a88&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&BT=federalelection
2% margin between Labor and Greens is well within the margin of error. Could go either way.
Joseph, 55% ALP TPP would be realistic in Macnamara due to the make-up of the electorate. 2022 was a particular bad result for the Liberal party, but in saying that, a 45% Liberal TPP would be their best case.
Any chance someone could kindly share the numbers/seats featured in that article?
Brisbane – Green primary down from 27.2 to 18.1, Lib gain
Ryan – Green down 2.8pp, Lib up 1.1pp, Lib gain
Griffith – ALP down 6.3pp, Lib up 7.9pp, too close to call.
Wills – Green up 4.8pp, Lab retain due to stronger conservative flows to Labor
Melb – Green retain
Macnamara – 3CP Lib 37, Green 28, Lab 26.
Commissioned by right-wing activist group Advance, the poll by pollster Insightfully of roughly 600 voters in each of the seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith in Queensland – which are held by the Greens – as well the Victorian seats of Wills, Macnamara, and Melbourne, which is held by Mr Bandt.
@douglas
As far as I can see, LNP hasn’t announced a candidate in Griffith, but combined Labor/Greens primary vote exceeded 60% in 2022, the above figures must mean it’s too close to call between Labor and Greens?
@Joseph, I agree with what you’re saying. I don’t see inner city seats like Macnamara having an above-average swing against Labor either; however the Liberals did have a particularly awful candidate in 2022 – I mean really, really, really bad – who probably ate into their vote even a bit more than they would have otherwise had, and they do have a surprisingly good candidate this time, so I think there could be roughly a 2% factor attached just to the difference in candidate.
The 55% Greens 2CP I mentioned was really a worst-case scenario (as a Greens voter).
I think more likely would be a roughly 57% or so Greens 2CP (and a 58-59% ALP 2PP vs LIB). That would factor in:
– Roughly 2% improvement for Libs based on far better candidate;
– On top of roughly 1-2% generic inner-city swing to Libs (below state average);
– And then a 1-2% 2CP swing vs Libs due to ALP to GRN preference flow being weaker than GRN to ALP
Interestingly, that poll commissioned by Advance looks pretty accurate to me. Those 3CP figures would translate to a GRN 2CP starting with 57 if the preference flow is anywhere between 77-80%, which is exactly where I expect it would be. And it’s a +3.3 LIB 3CP which is pretty much exactly in line with what I’d expect based on a lower than average generic swing (1-2% range) + an additional 1-2% based on candidate.
Actually those Advance figures don’t add up though as a 3CP:
37 + 28 + 26 is only 91 so there’s still a 9% other.
They look more like primary votes, so in terms of swings they would be around:
+8 LIB (seems far too high for inner city even with a better candidate)
-1.7 GRN
-5.7 ALP
I’d translate that into a 3CP more like:
40 LIB
32 GRN
28 ALP
(I think if the Libs are getting that much of a primary swing, some would be coming at the expense of right-wing minor parties so the Libs wouldn’t get the unusually big share of the minor vote that they got in 2022)
That would actually only translate to around a 54-55% Greens 2CP.
But, small sample size and before the campaign has actually started, and polls seem to be trending back towards Labor recently, I think there’s probably a 2% correction the other way that will happen.
My prediction for primary votes, based on that, would be more like 35 LIB, 28 GRN, 28 ALP but the Greens always get more minor preferences than Labor. So on those numbers it would still be GRN v LIB, and the Greens 2CP would be back in the 56-57% range.
Over the past 30 years, the Liberal party primary in Macnamara/Melbourne Ports has mostly been around the mid 30’s to low 40’s range depending on the election, and for that reason 37% looks realistic.