ALP 12.2%
Incumbent MP
Josh Burns, since 2019.
Inner south of Melbourne. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park, Windsor and South Melbourne.
Redistribution
Macnamara lost South Yarra to Melbourne, and gained Windsor from Higgins. This change did not affect the two-party-preferred Labor margin, but it slightly weakened Labor and slightly strengthened the Greens and Liberal on the three-candidate-preferred count.
History
Melbourne Ports was an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins. The seat was renamed “Macnamara” in 2019.
Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.
Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.
Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.
Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.
Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.
Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby held the seat for the next two decades, retiring in 2019. Labor candidate Josh Burns won Macnamara in 2019, and Burns was re-elected in 2022.
Assessment
Macnamara was a very close and complex count in 2022, which is not at all reflected in the safe Labor two-party-preferred margin. The more important point in the count was the three-candidate-preferred count, which determined who out of Labor, Liberal or Greens would be excluded from the final count. That count has been included in the below results tables.
If Labor made it into the top two, they were expected to easily win on preferences of whichever candidate came third – Liberal or Greens – but if Labor dropped into third their preferences would elect the Greens.
This likely will still be the case in 2025. The parties were extremely close to a three-way tie in 2022. A swing away from Labor would likely see the Greens win, but it’s entirely possible that the Greens could lose ground and remain in third place.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 29,552 | 31.8 | +0.9 | 31.7 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 27,587 | 29.7 | +5.5 | 29.7 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 26,976 | 29.0 | -9.7 | 29.1 |
| Jane Hickey | United Australia | 2,062 | 2.2 | +1.0 | 2.2 |
| Rob McCathie | Liberal Democrats | 1,946 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| John B Myers | Independent | 1,835 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1.9 |
| Ben Schultz | Animal Justice | 1,724 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 1.8 |
| Debera Anne | One Nation | 1,349 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1.4 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 3,302 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
2022 three-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 31,327 | 33.7 | -5.8 | 33.8 |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 31,149 | 33.5 | +0.3 | 33.4 |
| Steph Hodgins-May | Greens | 30,555 | 32.8 | +5.5 | 32.9 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Burns | Labor | 57,911 | 62.2 | +7.3 | 62.2 |
| Colleen Harkin | Liberal | 35,120 | 37.8 | -7.3 | 37.8 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.
The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with a vote ranging from 29.4% in Caulfield to 40.7% in St Kilda.
Labor’s vote was much more consistent, ranging from 31.6% in Caulfield to 32.5% in St Kilda.
The Liberal vote ranged from 17.4% in St Kilda to 30.8% in Caulfield.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | LIB prim | Total votes | % of votes |
| St Kilda | 40.7 | 32.5 | 17.4 | 15,001 | 16.1 |
| Port Melbourne | 29.8 | 32.4 | 28.7 | 13,913 | 14.9 |
| Caulfield | 29.4 | 31.6 | 30.8 | 6,983 | 7.5 |
| Pre-poll | 29.3 | 31.6 | 29.6 | 32,473 | 34.7 |
| Other votes | 23.6 | 30.8 | 35.2 | 25,091 | 26.8 |
Election results in Macnamara at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
Could there be a prospect of Josh Burns benefitting from a ‘sympathy vote’ or voters sticking to a more centrist option?
Is there a non-Jewish crowd, perhaps closer to the bay, who are somewhat apathetic on the Palestine issue but have doubts about what’ll happen if the Green candidate wins?
Either could be a form of tactical voting following recent anti-Semitic attacks, including vandalism of Burns’s office.
What’s really interesting when observing the 3 state electorates of Albert Park, Caulfield and Prahran, is despite the Liberals getting a swing in the ttp in Albert Park and Caulfield the primary votes went down in all 3 electorates all exactly 1.6%. Would’ve been interesting to see in the independents hadn’t contested in Albert Park and Caulfield and if Labor could have picked up Caulfield? Also despite Albert Park having a long time incumbent member retiring the swing against Labor wasn’t that big 1.9%. I know it doesn’t mean too much but still interesting to consider the state election results.
@Votante, I don’t think it will be a particularly decisive issue in those areas. I think they will decide their vote more based on issues like climate, economy, leader approval, etc.
@SpaceFish, I remember saying after the state election that I think Labor would have won Caulfield if the independent hadn’t run. I think all she really did was disrupt a knife-edge ALP v LIB, and gave disaffected Liberal voters and alternative place to cast their protest vote that wasn’t Labor, while being able to send their preference back to the Libs, whereas without her running Labor may have just got that additional <2% they needed.
Pesutto may have been in trouble in Hawthorn without the teal as well.
@Votante I think that could be the Port Melbourne, Albert Park and Middle Park area, along with the likes of Southbank and South Melbourne which are less hardcore Green left voters, which is St Kilda and Windsor, and more tealish, centrist by comparison.
The fact that Josh Burns has been visible in the Jewish community in the face of all this seems to suggest that the people don’t have as much disdain for him as we seem to think there is. I still think there could be some tactical voting in place if the Jewish population figured out that voting Liberals as usual will lead to the Greens winning which is even worse as I suspect the Greens candidate won’t even dare to visit Caulfield and said areas because of what’s transpired.
The independent in Caulfield’s preferences flowed on the 3CP
21.3% LIBS
30.6% ALP
48.1% GRNS
They overwhelming took votes from left wing voters that came back to them on preferences. Even if all the IND->Lib votes had of gone to Labor, then Labor still would have lost the seat. The Caulfield area has always voted much more Labor on a fed level compared to state where it’s much more Lib voting. Really not that surprising when there is a popular Lib incumbent on a state level and a popular ALP incumbent on a fed level.
@Nimalan I know I was using it as an example of another group that votes different ways on the federal and state level.
Many white working-class voters might traditionally vote Labor but think federal Labor are too progressive and too focused on issues they don’t care about like social issues. Similarly, many moderate or ethnic voters might lean Liberal but think the federal Liberals are too focused on climate wars and culture wars.
Hence why when we calculated Lindsay it was a Labor seat on state results but Bennelong would be a Liberal seat on state results (I haven’t calculated it yet, but I can though, and I know it’ll be a Liberal seat because all the overlapping state seats are Liberal seats).
If anyone’s interested I can calculate this (or any other seat) on the state level results. I’ve done almost every seat in Queensland already (Kennedy is the only one left), thanks to some help from Nimalan who created a list of all the booths in each seat. I also did Hunter, Lindsay, Paterson and Shortland.
Interestingly this overlaps with a Labor seat (Albert Park), a Liberal seat (Caulfield) and a Greens seat (Prahran), similar to Ryan which overlaps with several Labor seats, an LNP seat (Moggill) and a Greens seat (Maiwar).
Agree Trent,
I personally reckon that Labor could’ve held onto Hawthorn and picked up Caulfield if it hadn’t been for the independents running.
@ SpaceFish
Caulfield and Hawthorn are quite different despite the margins being quite similar on TPP. Trent pointed this out on the Caulfield 2022 correctly to another commentator before the state election. Caulfield has more natural left wing territory (Port Philip council areas) which are Solid Left. It has has more Classic Labor/Liberal areas along the Frankston Line (Glen Huntly/Ormond) which are middle class bread and butter suburbs which in my view is the northern most part of the sandbelt and has more in common with Bentleigh demographically. Hawthorn has no such natural Left wing territory. Trent also correctly pointed out while the area around Swinburne University is Progressive by Eastern Suburbs standards it still an area that can get behind a Teal. Despite a sitting Labor MP the Teal out polled Labor along all booths in Glenferrie Road and Camberwell Junction. This is why there is a massive difference in Teal primary in both seats and Labor’s strategy. Labor campaigned hard in Caulfield ran dead in Hawthorn.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/caulfield2022/comment-page-3#comments
Yeah I think in Hawthorn especially, you can’t really look at the actual results or preferencing to figure out what would have happened without a teal, because like Nimalan says, the biggest impact there was actually that once a teal was running, Labor pretty much stepped aside and ran dead. Strategically it made sense because Labor probably don’t see themselves holding it long term anyway, whereas a teal might.
Whereas I think Labor see Caulfield as more of a long term prospect. A seat they could easily pick up (and hold onto) if Southwick retires and they run a strong Jewish candidate for example, or that only small boundary changes could flip. The notional margin going into 2022 was so close – I actually think it was 0.04% – that if they were to defeat Southwick and gain incumbency, it’s a seat they’d probably be more confident about holding for a while. It’s safe to say the most Liberal voting demographic in Caulfield is the Jewish community but they have largely demonstrated their willing to get behind an individual who they feel represents their community well just as much if not moreso than a party.
I would say Southwick’s incumbency is a HUGE factor in that seat, and probably the biggest hurdle to Labor gaining it. The seat could easily flip when he retires. I’m curious about what might happen with the fallout from the Deeming saga because it was Southwick who secretly recorded calls played in court, and has turned a lot of the party room against him. It would make no difference to his constituency, but may influence how long he stays in politics, for example if any leadership aspirations have been crushed by it.
@ Trent
Also there is no Federal benefit of winning Hawthorn unlike Caulfield/Croydon or Bayswater. Labor is not going to win Kooyong federally and if Mel Lowe won then it may provide more resouces to Monique Ryan. If Lior Harel won Caulfield they could have made further inroads into the Jewish community and it may have helped Josh Burns someone who could have helped him campaign. Another thing is Hawthorn is pretty much made up young renters and wealthy old money asset owners and pretty much nothing in between so even without a Teal who is to say it will not become a LIB V GRN seat longer term. Caulfield has more middle class territory like Glen Huntly/Ormond.
i cant see with al the bad press that labor has done towards the jewish community that they would even consider voting labor for any reason
Continuing from the Melbourne thread. There will be a campaign to keep Burns’ primary vote up to keep the Greens out, but it will fail (as did the last “Keep Josh” campaign hahaha). Zionist voters will not be able to look past what they are told is the Labor government’s “extreme anti-Israel policies”, the Coalition vote will increase and Labor will be relegated to third place. The idea that the Greens vote would collapse in the eastern part of Macnamara is overblown. The position of the Greens on Palestine was not a secret before October 7th, those with a contrary view were not voting for them last time. If there is a swing overall against the Greens (which I do not predict), it will be negligible. GRN GAIN
@douglas i think there is a minute chance of a liberal gain if enough of the labor vote breaks their way however unlikely. although i agree no matter how badly certain jews want to keep labor out. i just cant see them being able to bring themselves to being able to vote labor
keep the greens out that should have said. and it will probably be negligible anyway since its oyl a matter of time before parliament expands or vic regains its 39th seat and that caufield tail is removed.
Keep the Greens will only be effective in 2025 at best because the Jewish vote is being diluted in any case by population growth in Southbank/Fishermens Bend, probably will be a Greens gain by 2028 though. In Wills, if Labor survives in 2025 then 2028 will be easier if Labor gets a new candidate in 2028.
@nimalan if labor can somehow hold out this time they may be able to hold in 2028 if jewsh voters come back or tactically vote labor. if victoia regains a 39th seat labor should be able to hold it as with caufield removed it will become a lab v grn seat and lab should hold on lib preferences. but i think lab will lose because of how they have simply taken jewish voters for a ride and i think most arent gonna reward labor for that. grn gain in my opinion but longer term labor should recover when its a lab v grn seat depending on how the libs feel about them. in wills i dont think labor can win it outright this time around especially since the libs wil be preferncing lab though 2028 i thin they might win wills and by that time lab might have lost in vic at a state level
@douglas, I 100% agree with your assessment. Polling in Victoria has consistently shown a huge swing against Labor, moderate swing to the Liberals, and stable Greens vote.
Even if the Labor vote is holding up better in the inner city, even if they do get a tactical vote to keep the Greens out, it’s just so hard to see how they possibly maintain their 0.5% 3CP lead vs the Greens.
The Israel issue has actually turned into a much bigger threat to Labor/Burns than it has for the Greens in this seat (I would argue it has never been a significant threat to the Greens in this seat).
@ John
Just for this analysis lets ignore a redistributions and lets look at the electorate from Caulfield to Port Melbourne. A few points
1. Judaism is still a growing religious albeit slowly it is due to natural increase rather than immigration or conversion of non Jews
2. However, the Jewish community is concentrated in the Caulifield tail.
3. The Caulfield tail is much lower density compared to the rest of the seat and is not really growing fast in population. It has single family homes and nuclear familes.
4. The Fasted growing part of the seat is Fishermens Bend/Port Melbourne where there are hardly any Jews
5. Macnamara on current boundaries may already be like Griffith if it was not for the Jewish community. There are strong Greens areas like St Kilda but no strong Labor areas.
6. With respect to Wills, it will always be a ALP V GRN seat which is much harder for the Greens to win in normal circumstance so without Palestine the Greens probably will not have a chance especially if there was a left wing Labor MP.
@ Trent
What do you think about Wills. If Greens dont win Wills then there strong pro-Palestine chance will be a waste. However, if Labor survives in Macnamara the Greens will get another chance as the Jewish vote is being diluted due to population growth in Fishermens Bend/Southbank so the Greens will get another chance in 2028 but may not get another chance in Wills in 2028.
* Greens Pro-Palestine stance
As someone who will be voting LNP I think Josh Burns deserves re-election. He’s been working hard for the electorate and Labor needs moderates like him to keep the party from drifting to the left which Albanese would happily do just as Dutton is moving the Coalition to the right.
@np labor is gonna get hammered at the next election from every side. no way Burns survives in my opinion labor will bleed voters (especially from the jewish community) to the liberals and to the greens becuse of Burns’ stnace on israel
I dont think Burns will loose too much vote to the Greens in Macnamara it one of the least Muslim seats in Greater Melbourne. I also think Pro-Palestine Green Left Anglo voters probably already voted Greens last time.
@nimalan one cant assume that though. same as in werriwa we cant assume they are already voting labor 2pp wise.
@ John
In this seat, most people are already well aware that the Greens are Pro-Palestine because Labor mentions it every election before October 7th which is why i doubt Greens have support among Pro-Israel Jewish voters. The Greens are already in the 40s in primary in St Kilda, Windsor etc. Werriwa is a classic ALP V LIB contest neither party will mention it themselves but the Greens probably will. Labor will not mention Israel-Palestine in Werriwa because it can be weaponised in another seat neither will the Libs for the same reason but the Greens dont really have much to loose so they can see whatever they want. If Ned Mannoun had joined the Labor party instead regardless of Israel/Palestine Labor would have a safer margin like they do in neighbouring Macarthur.
Also St Kilda has a different history the Greens improved due to it being very progressive on LGBT issues etc.