Macnamara – Australia 2025

This being my seat I’ll kick off the discussion here. I predict a Greens gain with roughly a 57-43 2CP vs LIB.

The reason for this is that Labor’s 3CP margin vs GRN is only 0.5%; there will at least be small swings between the 3 main parties, and I think Labor are most likely to cop a negative swing (which is all the Greens need to win) for the following reasons:

* Stronger Liberal candidate than 2022 should contribute at least a small shift from ALP to LIB;

* While Dutton is probably even less palatable than Morrison, he’s not in government; the factor of the electorate being desperate to turf the Morrison government would probably hurt the Liberal vote more than Dutton’s unpopularity, so could contribute another small shift from ALP to LIB;

* On that same topic, ALP/GRN swing voters I think are more likely to vote Labor when the motivation is booting out a Liberal government, and more likely to vote Greens when Labor are in government, so this could contribute a small ALP to GRN shift (probably at least enough to cancel out the loss of the Greens’ candidate ‘incumbency’ with Steph Hodgins-May not running);

* Labor’s polling has quite simply tanked in Victoria since 2022, and while I think that’s mostly concentrated to outer suburbs and it has held up better in the inner city, I still think there’s no doubt still been a loss of support while the Liberals’ polling has improved and the Greens’ polling has remained stable. So this could contribute to shifts from ALP to both GRN & LIB;

* Gaza. Contrary to most media commentary, I think Gaza will hurt Burns more than the Greens here. Why? Israel has always been a central issue for this seat’s Zionist/pro-Israel voter base and I don’t believe the Greens have much of a vote with that cohort to lose in the first place. However, the ongoing war in Gaza has actually brought the issue more into focus for progressive/left voters who mostly condemn Israel’s actions, so Burns being such a notable pro-Israel figure within Labor could actually shift votes from ALP to GRN, especially in suburbs like St Kilda, Windsor & Elwood.

Meanwhile, Labor’s recent escalation of criticism of Israel at the UN could shift some ALP votes to LIB among Zionist voters, particularly those who voted Burns federally and Southwick (LIB) at state level in 2022. Even if they personally like Burns, Labor’s UN votes may be too much for them, and also if Labor’s position on the issue is moving closer to the Greens anyway, it also reduces the motivation for a tactical vote. So really, I see it as lose-lose for Burns who can possibly lose votes on both sides of the issue, while I don’t think the Greens really had much vote to lose over it in the first place and they actually have more to gain.

* Also, the notional 0.5% 3CP margin between ALP & GRN may even be inflated due to the difficulty in calculating the non-ordinary vote from a seat like Higgins which has huge variations from suburb to suburb, with Windsor being far more Green (especially relative to Labor) than the rest of Higgins. Realistically, their notional 3CP could already be close to even.

* The Prahran byelection overlaps with part of Macnamara, and with Labor sitting it out it means the Greens and Liberals will be a lot more visible over the next few months than Labor. Also it could create a perception that Labor are not giving this area priority, or have given up on it, or some Labor voters may just feel snubbed.

So overall, I struggle to see how in current circumstances, Labor increase their vote relative to the Greens.

I’m predicting a 3CP that may look something like LIB 37, GRN 33, ALP 30. The ALP’s 30% will split at least 24-6 (80%) in favour of the Greens – that’s taking into account it probably being a little weaker than usual due to Burns’ vote in the Jewish community – which should result in at least a 57-43 GRN v LIB 2CP.

With respect I don’t see the Greens winning here.
I would argue that Steph Hodgins-May not running here would suggest that Greens don’t think they’ll win here. Also a poll with Redbridge had the about 7% swing away from Labor mainly at the expense of Greens. I do think the Gaza issue has hurt the Greens here more then it has with Labor.
I know in the state by Labor aren’t contesting there but neither of the two major parties haven’t well in that part of electorate in the recent decade so Labor will use resources elsewhere regardless if Greens outperform Labor in that part of the electorate at the federal level they’ll flow back to Labor. It’s worth noting that at the 2022 state election the Liberals improved in the other two state seats that Macnamara overlaps while Labor went backwards and the Greens underperformed. I remember speculation that Greens would do so much better in Albert park electorate and they didn’t. Honestly I think at this point it will be Labor hold with a margin of 55/45 Labor/Liberal with Greens falling into third place.

It’s that precise dynamic though – Liberals improving at the expense of Labor in those other two overlapping state seats – that is all that’s required for the Greens to win, as long as they don’t go backwards more than Labor do.

Steph Hodgins-May isn’t running this time, but she’s actually elected, increased her profile, and has been side by side with Sonya Semmens the whole time. I’ve seen her everywhere. School fetes, baby clothes swaps, hosting renters’ rights workshops, family picnics & community days, it’s been Steph & Sonya together every time, almost like Steph is introducing everyone personally to her replacement.

I can’t see how it’s possible for Gaza to hurt the Greens in any meaningful way in this seat to be honest. For that to happen means they must have had a significant pro-Israel vote to begin with, which I don’t believe they did, because Israel-Palestine was always a central issue in this seat at every election dating back to at least 2010.

If you ignore the fact that the seat is around 12% Jewish, I can’t understand why the remainder of this seat would be any more pro-Israel than any other seat, in fact its demographics would suggest the remaining 88% of would be less so than the average electorate. It’s just that the 12% Jewish population – which is very unlikely to be the source of much Greens support to begin with – always seems to be the focus.

I’ll add too that the main reason I think the Greens will win is not because of an increase in Greens support, they might even go backwards a bit themselves, but because of an ALP to LIB swing.

And that’s not necessarily because I think Dutton is more electable here than Morrison (I think the opposite), but for the reasons I outlined above:

– Part of the reason for the LIB collapse here in 2022 was running the worst possible candidate. The original candidate actually dropped out late in the game, and was replaced by a serial candidate from Brighton who was a Katherine Deves type, in the seat with the 3rd highest ‘Yes’ vote for SSM in the country;

– Another part of it was the motivation to boot the unpopular Morrison government out of office. Dutton may be even more unlikeable, but the “baseball bats are out” element isn’t there

So it’s not that I think people will swing to the Liberal Party out of any sort of endorsement of them or Dutton, but I just think they will recover some of their usual Liberal-leaning voters that they lost in 2022 due to those two factors.

I also think there may be an ALP to LIB swing in the Jewish community too, since Labor have changed their stance on their UN votes, and from what I could tell, at the Ripponlea synagogue incident, that community had a lot of anger and hostility towards Labor. These are voters who very possibly voted for Burns in 2022 but may not do so this time.

All the Greens need to do is lose about 0.5% less support than Labor do, and they win the seat. And I think that’s the most likely outcome because I think at least a small to moderate ALP to LIB swing is inevitable.

@Trent Don’t quote me on this and I could be wrong as I’m not a local (although I have stayed in this part of the world when I visited Melbourne last time, a fantastic area I might add), but it seems to me that this seat is one where the constituents can’t see eye to eye, as far as the issue of Israel/Gaza is concerned. The folks in St Kilda can’t stand the thought of pro-Zionist Jewish people protesting about antisemitism, whilst those in Caulfield won’t have a bar of the pro-Palestinian protestors or movement. It’s almost as if you put both sides in a boxing ring and they’ll have a red hot go at each other.

Whilst it’s interesting, it’s certainly not in the interest of the electorate to have such a polarising population groups in there which is not good for social cohesion. It would be nice if both sides got along but I’d be looking to airborne swines before that happens. I feel bad for Josh Burns as MP because I can see that whilst he is firmly Jewish and supportive of the community east of Chapel Street, he’s also empathetic towards pro-Palestinian causes along with other progressive policies on climate change, equality etc, but that puts him at odds with both groups even though he’s trying to unite them. At least with Danby, as bad as he was, you could tell where his allegiance lay even though it almost cost him on several locations, and ironically was saved by Greens (of all) preferences.

Two ways Gaza might benefit Burns.

1) many left wing Jews have been polarised against the Greens on the issue. Surprisingly strong effect IMO.

2) more conservative Jews will be willing to vote tactical to support Burns primary. This already occurs but will absolutely be a new focus of their campaign.

Sorry Several Occasions not locations haha

@Z There is still the sentiment (and this has been promoted in the Australian Jewish News) that if the more conservative Jews were thinking of voting Liberals all it does is that it will give the Greens the seat which is probably the worst outcome for them (aka voting for one but get the opposite outcome), because the Liberals won’t win the seat ever in this current form. If this is being promoted I reckon a decent chunk of those voters could be voting Labor 1 and Liberal 2 to keep the Greens out and thus re-elect Burns. I don’t know how many voters that will be but it could be decisive.

Labor could potentially run a campaign in Caulfield with a slogan of ‘Vote Liberal? Get Greens’ or ‘Want to shut the Greens out? Vote 1 Labor’, which could have a big effect on the voting sentiments there. But then again that’s doomsday stuff. I suspect Labor will probably be running 2 different campaigns on either side of Chapel Street if that’s the case, aka a more progressive left wing one in the west and a more targeted, conservative on in the east to appease the Jewish voters.

i am not personally sure if Josh Burns Pro-Israel stance was loose him too many voters among irreligious progressive Anglos. I think he Green Left voters probably already voted Greens last time. Also pretty much in the all the booths labelled as “St Kilda” by Ben the Greens already outpolled Labor last time and this was before October 7 and got a primary in the 40s, i can see the Greens growing to around 45% average across these booths. One exception was one Elwood booth which a lower green primary however, that is a Catholic school booth which seemed to attract a more right wing demographic. I have noticed that Catholic school booths are generally more right wing than adjacent Public school booths. I think in the booths labelled Port Melbourne (the Parks etc) people may be more neutral and it would be Josh Burns personal popularity that will determine his fate,

i think josh burns may be in trouble due to Labors poor standing with the jewish community after the fire.

I agree @John, there is anger in the community. However, if they vote Liberal then the Greens will win the seat which is not the outcome Jewish or even non Jewish Liberal voters want.

@nimalan i think that all but inevitable anyway

The big question is if Labor come third, how many votes may leak to the Libs rather than going to the Greens?

@ John
The only other thing is that Greens may not be as popular in Albert Park, Port Melbourne etc as in 2022 which are more Tealish and may loose voters for other reasons such as MCM grandstanding on housing and CFMEU. I still would not be surprised if there is tactical voting because a Greens win will be a disaster for the community and maybe if you lived in Macnamara maybe that is something you ought to do as you support Israel as well.

@ Redistributed probably vast majority of Jewish Labor voters but that is no where near enough.

@nimalan still labor will bleed votes to the greens over time so its inevitable that the greens will outpoll labor

@john & nimalan – I completely agree, it looks like there is a lot of hostility towards Labor in the Jewish community. Firstly this will impact Josh Burns even if they like him; but secondly, it will surely reduce even the ‘tactical vote’. While it makes sense to somebody astute enough to realise voting Libs will probably deliver the Greens, not everybody will understand that, and more importantly, if the Jewish community are seeing Labor’s current position as really not being much better than the Greens anyway, where’s the motivation to make a tactical vote.

@redistributed – I think it might wipe about 1-2% (max) off the Greens 2CP. No more than that really. Every Jewish/Zionist primary vote that flips from ALP to LIB to result in Labor falling to third place to begin with, is 1 less ALP preference to be distributed so it cancels itself out as that vote is already with the Liberal Party.

Just say the ALP v LIB 2PP ends up being 58-42 or something; I’d estimate that the GRN v LIB 2CP will probably be close to 57-43 still.

@ John
Longer term i agree Labor will not hold it. I think they will be happy just to win it for one more term. It will become like Griffith is currently when Labor vote got hollowed out.

@ Trent
With the Greens strategy, if the Greens fail to win Macnamara in 2025, they will have another chance in 2028. However, that is not the case with Wills if they fail in 2025, they may not get a second chance for sometime. Also among the 12% who are Jewish i suspect a lot are already voting Liberal especially the Orthodox Jewish ones. We can see when Postal votes come there is a big difference in Macnamara so i wonder what of Labor primary vote is Jewish for Labor to loose.

It would be awkward if voters switching from Labor to Liberal over the Middle East conflict led to the election of a Greens MP here. It makes me wonder what the fallout would be and what political discourse would come out of that.

Re-distributed
Michael Danby was wont to produce recommendations putting The Green Party last.
Josh Burns could save himself by taking a likewise stance.
In the circumstances, I don’t regard a Labor 1, Liberal 2, vote as a leak, if it is the advice of the incumbent MP.

labor has the same problem in several places notably in Richmond as well. with that Labor will struggle to ever regain majority government

@ John
I would argue that is the case of Higgins if it still existed on 2022 boundaries because one day it could very well be a LIB V GRN seat by 2028,that is why Labor would have been better off if they won Deakin in 2022 than Higgins as the former is a simple classic race.
It is why Labor had no interest to try and hold in to the state seat of Hawthorn as that is also a seat that one day could be a LIB V GRN even if there was no Teal

@nimlan if parliament expands or regains its 39th seat macnamra will be gone as that caufield tail will be the first to go

@ John
If the Caulfield tail is gone, Macnamara would be GRN V ALP seat in the current circumstances unless the Liberals moderate, hence the Greens wanted Caulfield in Macnamara.

@nimalan wouldnt it be likely to also take in prahan from melbourne though?

@ John
Yes it would but Prahran is a weak area for Libs which increases the chance that Libs will come third in Macnamara hence a GRN V ALP seat.

@nimalan but thats helps the greens right?

I think it’s pretty safe to say that if the Greens win Macnamara in 2025 and there is a redistribution prior to 2028, the Jewish community will actually be suggesting to remove the Caulfield tail from the seat rather than opposing it this time!

Agree too that unless the Liberals recover across the remainder of Macnamara – which they very well might in the north of the seat – it would be an ALP v GRN race (which Labor would win) without Caulfield in the seat. That’s why the Greens wanted it in there this time.

The reason I’m tipping a Greens win is simply because I struggle to see how Labor won’t have a swing against them compared to 2022, which is really all the Greens need to win (that and not having an even bigger swing against themselves).

Here’s something that could be a major factor too: Labor demolished St Kilda Primary School’s hall in 2021 and have since pulled the funding to rebuild it. There has been a huge campaign by the school community to rebuild it, thousands of signatures on a petition, corflutes everywhere, and they are actively blaming Labor for it.

St Kilda Primary school sits in both Macnamara and Prahran, and the Greens have made rebuilding the primary school hall a centrepiece of both campaigns. The Greens candidates have been very active in St Kilda Primary School’s campaign itself.

This is just another factor working against Labor here:

– I think it’s reasonable to expect there will be at least a small ALP to LIB swing within the Jewish community.

– The Liberals will probably recover some of the vote they lost in 2022, particularly in the north end of the seat (Port Melb, Albert Park etc) and it’s likely more of that will come at the expense of Labor than the Greens

– The St Kilda Primary School issue could hurt Labor around St Kilda, an area where their vote has already steadily been shifting to the Greens as it is

So the question is, where is Labor going to source any sort of positive swing to counter all that?

Based on what I think is going on in each part of the seat, the local issues, the trends, the demographics, I honestly think we’ll be looking at primary vote swings of about +5 LIB, -1 GRN, -3 ALP, -1 Other.

That’ll make ALP & GRN roughly equal on primary votes (around 29% each) but minor party preferences are always where the Greens significantly outperform Labor, so I’d expect 3CP results in the range of 37 LIB, 32 GRN, 31 ALP.

And then factoring in a weaker than normal preference flow to the Greens due to the Jewish community, that’s basically a 57-43 GRN v LIB 2CP.

@john – Labor would most likely win an ALP v GRN contest off Liberal preferences (unless the Libs directed preferences to the Greens) which is why I think the Greens see their best chance of winning as Labor finishing third because they would certainly win a GRN v LIB 2CP.

@ John
it does not help the Greens because the Liberal primary vote will be too low to make the 2CP without Caulifled.

Dutton culture warring probably means the Liberals won’t recover in Port Melbourne in 2025.

im sure the liberals would welcome teh rest of caufiled in likely Chisholm.

@ Nether Portal
Yeah i agree i dont see what incentive people have in Albert Park/Port Melbourne to vote Liberal COL does not impact them at the same time they are not Green Left so i think MCM and all his stunts will be a turn off. Josh Burns ironically is probably the centrist option.

@ Nether Portal – I do agree with that, I don’t think the Liberals will necessarily be winning over any/many new voters even in Port Melbourne & Albert Park with Dutton leading the party and focusing on culture wars & nuclear energy.

However, I think in 2022 they even lost some solid Liberal voters over a really, really bad candidate as well as a general “it’s time” factor to boot the Morrison government and have a reset, for the good of their own party.

Remember a lot of people thought Frydenburg would become leader if the Liberals lost the election, so there was likely a cohort of Liberal voters who held their nose to vote Labor once because the Libs needed a term out of government to change direction.

They are the types of voters who I think might just return their vote to its usual ‘home’ with the Liberals this time. I think they will land somewhere between their 2019 & 2022 results.

Also, I feel like Port Melbourne is a strange suburb because it’s so inner-city, but culturally it actually feels more like middle-suburbia. It’s atypical for a relatively affluent inner-city area in that way.

I think the fact that it’s very tucked away, it’s a hub for a lot of trade-related industries, and it has easy access to a freeway but very little public transport, makes it attract a different demographic to your typical inner-city area like Prahran/Windsor, Fitzroy/Collingwood, Brunswick, Richmond or even nearby South Melbourne.

@ Trent
What about Albert Park/Middle Park it does not seem Bohemian, it seems very posh to me where everyone wears designer label Fashion. Nothing like the Inner North or hipster vibes.

Agree. Albert Park / Middle Park would be put off by Dutton and the vote may not move as much from 2022. I think Dutton would actually appeal to a sizeable chunk of Port Melbourne voters though.

When it comes to Albert Park / Middle Park, I feel like they’ll be choosing between two options they don’t particularly like: Dutton & Albanese. It’s a more ‘teal-ish’ area, which the Greens usually do pretty well in when there’s no teal running. Especially when they are running a very locally focused campaign which they tend to do in the inner-south.

I don’t think the vote in Albert Park / Middle Park will move quite as much. I think maybe a very small ALP to LIB swing (just some Lib voters returning ‘home’ due to a better candidate and Libs not in government), and a stagnant/steady Greens vote.

Whereas I think there’s potential for a much more pronounced ALP to LIB swing in Port Melbourne, where Dutton would have more appeal. In some ways, Port Melbourne is more similar to suburbs like Patterson Lakes than it is to Prahran/Windsor. Just as one example, The Age’s recent map of the most popular car in each suburb had little Corollas and Hydundais across the entire inner suburbs, except in Port Melbourne the most popular car was a Hilux. So it definitely has that much more tradie type population that Dutton is actually focusing his efforts on.

@Trent @Nimalan you’re right that it’s atypical for inner-city Melbourne, but here on the Gold Coast that’s quite normal for the inner-city to be not progressive (though nowhere on the Gold Coast is progressive, not in the way Melbourne is).

I think it depends how we define inner-city though. Technically you could say that affluent, small-l-liberal Hawthorn is inner-city as it’s only 7km from the Melbourne CBD. Similarly, affluent, small-l-liberal Double Bay and Rose Bay are only 5km and 8km away from the Sydney CBD, respectively. Also, Essendon is about 10km from the Melbourne CBD but only about 5km from Brunswick, yet it’s completely different.

It’s just so crazy to me that Richmond is only 3km away from Hawthorn and 3.5km away from Toorak yet they all vote differently (and Richmond votes completely differently to Hawthorn and Toorak). Federally, Hawthorn is a teal booth, Richmond is a Labor vs Greens booth where Labor are narrowly ahead (the Greens came first but Liberal preferences pushed Labor ahead) and Toorak is a Liberal booth. Have a look at this:

Primary votes of the three major parties in Richmond vs Toorak:

Richmond:
* Greens : 39.2% (–7.7%)
* Labor: 27.8% (+10.3%)
* Liberal: 22.9% (–2.8%)
(TCP: 51.4% Labor vs 48.6% Greens)

Toorak:
* Liberal: 59.1% (–8.6%)
* Labor: 20.8% (+6.2%)
* Greens: 13.9% (–1.0%)
(TPP: 64.7% Liberal vs 35.3% Labor, +7.1% to Labor)

Difference:
* Labor: 7% higher in Richmond
* Liberal: 36.2% higher in Toorak
* Greens: 25.3% higher in Richmond

So the Liberal vote is usually over 40% higher in Toorak than in Richmond. Yet these two suburbs are within a walkable distance of each other. That’s crazy.

@ NP
Maybe compare Albert Park to Fitzroy/St Kilda both are inner city but quite a different vibe. I feel Albert Park is a bit like Teneriffe/New Farm in Brisbane or Centennial Park/Millers Point in Sydney.
Also Richmond is not as Left wing as Collingwood etc especially around Cremorne/Burnley. If you compare Kew and Collingwood you get a big contrast as well.
Also Agree Essendon different from Brunswick or even Coburg (much closer to Essendon). Essendon has Private schools etc.

You’re completely right NP, and that’s also a big part of why I think doing redistribution calculations when transferring from a seat like Higgins is difficult too.

Most seats around the country have nowhere near the level of variation that a seat like Higgins has, so simply applying the non-ordinary vote results for the whole seat to the non-ordinary vote being transferred usually works.

But in a seat like Higgins, you had basically had ALP v LIB 2PPs of:
* 52-48 for the seat as a whole
* 33-67 in parts of Toorak
* 77-23 in Windsor

Looking just at the Greens primary, you had:
* 22% for the seat as a whole
* 13% in parts of Toorak
* Over 45% in Windsor

And for the Liberal primary:
* 41% for the seat as a whole
* 62% in parts of Toorak
* 15% in Windsor

The variations are massive, and what’s even crazier with Windsor vs Toorak compared to Richmond vs Toorak, is that at their closest point they are only about 700m apart (!!), in the same electorate, and the same city council! Yet their 2PP result is about 44 percentage points apart, the Greens’ primary vote is 33 percentage points apart, and the Liberal primary vote was 47 percentage points apart! Between two suburbs that are literally less than 1km apart.

On the topic of Macnamara, that’s why I think that 0.5% notional 3CP margin between ALP & Greens probably doesn’t even exist, because in the area being transferred (Windsor) the Greens outperformed the seat as a whole by over 20%, but the standard method of calculating a notional result doesn’t factor that in.

So I’d say the current notional 3CP margin is probably close to a dead-heat between all 3 parties in reality, and even 0.2% swings in any direction could change the outcome.

There are definitely some very extreme changes in voting behaviour within close proximity to each other in Melbourne.

Correction: Windsor & Toorak are only 600m apart!

If you stand on the southwest corner of Williams & High, you’re in Windsor. If you walk 600m north to the next set of lights and cross over to the northeast corner of Williams & Malvern, you’re in Toorak.

Yet one of them voted 62% Liberal & 13% Greens, and the other voted 45% Greens & 15% Liberal. Crazy.

@Trent yeah Melbourne is very unique like that. A suburb can be less than 1km away and vote nearly 50% differently.

@Nimalan Teneriffe is quite left-leaning but New Farm is small-l-liberal and voted LNP on the BCC level.

Liberal primaries:
* Albert Park: 29.3% (–6.1%) — 2nd
* Caulfield: 39.3% (–15.0%) — 1st
* Port Melbourne: 29.8% (–5.6%) — 2nd
* Port Melbourne Beach: 35.8% (–9.5%) — 1st
* St Kilda: 13.4% (–4.3%) — 3rd
* Windsor: 11.5% (–12.1%) — 3rd

Labor primaries:
* Albert Park: 28.4% (+0.1%) — 3rd
* Caulfield: 32.5% (+2.9%) — 2nd
* Port Melbourne: 34.3% (–1.2%) — 1st
* Port Melbourne Beach: 30.2% (–0.2%) — 2nd
* St Kilda: 35.8% (–5.8%) — 2nd
* Windsor: 24.8% (–6.0%) — 2nd

Greens primaries:
* Albert Park: 30.6% (+1.3%) — 1st
* Caulfield: 19.3% (+9.3%) — 3rd
* Port Melbourne: 25.0% (+2.2%) — 3rd
* Port Melbourne Beach: 26.2% (+6.9%) — 3rd
* St Kilda: 44.2% (+9.5%) — 1st
* Windsor: 57.3% (+16.5%) — 1st

Labor TPP:
* Albert Park: 60.6% (+4.2%)
* Caulfield: 52.0% (+10.9%)
* Port Melbourne: 59.2% (+0.8%)
* Port Melbourne Beach: 55.7% (+6.1%)
* St Kilda: 80.4% (+2.8%)

In 2022, Caulfield was the most conservative booth in Macnamara with a Liberal TPP of 48.0% (note the big swing away from the Liberals meant it became a Labor booth, though Caulfield has a high prepoll because of the high Jewish population, as Australian elections take place on Saturdays which is the Sabbath (day of rest) for Jewish people), while the most progressive was Windsor which is a Greens booth with a Labor TPP of 82.1%. The Labor TPP in Windsor was 30.1% higher than in Caulfield.

Spot on NP, and I think those Caulfield results even inflate the support for both Labor and Greens because of exactly what you mention: high pre-poll and postal vote due to the Sabbath, so those polling day results for Caulfield would be predominantly just the non-Jewish (or at least non-practicing Jewish) vote.

@Nimalan Teneriffe leans left (Labor/Greens), because it’s mostly young professionals in those new apartment towers. New Farm is small-L liberal.

@ AA/NP
OK maybe Teneriffe was not a good comparison it has very expensive housing so maybe Melbourne 3004 is a better comparison which has high density but more affluent demographic.
Albert Park is not like Ascot etc and more marginal on TPP terms especially when Libs are moderate.

@Nimalan yeah Ascot is more like Toorak or Vaucluse I would say (i.e old money conservative). Similar to Ascot is places like Eagle Farm, Hamilton and Hendra. Clayfield is more small-l-liberal but it doesn’t vote Labor or Greens, it votes LNP (just by smaller margins federally than on the state level and much smaller than at BCC elections).

@Trent the non-Jewish people in Caulfield tend to be moderate Liberals so that definitely explains it. But there are some Jews who are moderate and would vote for Josh Burns on the federal level and David Southwick on the state level (similar to how some Asian and Indian people in NSW vote for federal Labor and the state Liberals or white working-class people who vote for state Labor and the federal Liberals, hence why Bennelong would be a Liberal seat on 2023 state results while Lindsay would be a Labor seat).

I think there would be a pretty significant cohort of Jewish voters in Caulfield who in 2022 voted for Burns in May and Southwick in November.

The risk for Labor – and what the Greens would probably be hoping for – is that it’s this particular cohort that could swing to the Libs due to a bubbling anger with Labor at the moment.

@ nether Portal
From my experience especially having Jewish friends I think in some ways Jewish voters are moderate/progressive in most aspects except foreign policy. due to much higher levels of education they will be more pro climate etc than your typical Anglo australian. I have also noticed they tend to be more sympathetic to refugees etc. Michael Danby often spoke in favour of Uyghurs, Tibetens etc. Having said I would not compare them to Chinese or especially Indian voters as many Jews have lived here for generations so there is greater intergenerational wealth some also live in old money areas now.