Macnamara – Australia 2025

They would never do that as there’s no real benefit.

Within Macnamara, yes it would go down well in the Jewish community where they want to minimise a swing to the Liberals, but that’s only 12% of the electorate and already where the Libs do best. So realistically there probably isn’t a whole lot of benefit in terms of swinging/saving votes, there’s a much bigger risk of losing votes over it, or not regaining ALP/GRN swing voters who voted Greens last time and might return.

Probably more importantly, outside Macnamara, imagine the backlash in seats like Wills if word got out they were preferencing the Liberals?

I don’t know that is necessarily the case. I think the ALP/Green swing voter is a lot smaller in number than many would have you believe. It seems that even in Prahran a large proportion of Labor voters has stayed at home rather than vote for the Greens (and not the first data point here either), suggesting the losses are probably very small (if you are going to get the hump over the ALP not directing preferences to the Greens you probably already vote Greens) and the simple act of signalling you are anti the Greens might even bring home a number of voters who have moved away. I also doubt it would hurt Labor that much as how many Greens voters will preference the Libs in a fit of pique?

Also, I have seen nothing that says the Greens position on Gaza has been a vote winner, so I am not sure even in Wills putting the Greens last would be electoral poison.

I tend to think those arguments almost never come from Labor partisans but from Greens partisans (and I am not suggesting this is you Trent) who want to use it as a bargaining chip to get the ALP to accept some of their positions.

@mlv if they do that they will lose

I think this will be a Labor retain. I think Josh Burns will have gained a reasonable personal vote for prominently speaking out against antisemitism. He also strategically speaks out on certain issues like the environment to create the impression that he runs to the left of Labor. That kind of thing is very popular with the professional class so I think they will give him credit for “pushing the Labor party to the left” and punish the Greens for being too “extreme”. The Green vote probably hit a peak in 2022 so will go down; the Liberal vote will probably recover somewhat, and Josh Burns as the incumbent can probably have confidence that his vote will hold up and remain ahead of the Greens.

@Greens Political Party Supporter March 10, 2025 at 9:54 pm
From what I remember, Burns barely won Macnamara in the 3CP race against the Greens by 200 votes, if the Greens overtook him, it would’ve been them who’d gain the seat off Labor preferences rather than Burns retaining off Greens preferences.

Regardless of if Burns has a reasonable personal vote, there’s a 5% swing away from Labor in VIC. Even accounting for the fact that there will be less of a swing against Labor in Inner Metro seats, Burns would need to lose very little votes in the 3CP race against the Liberals and Greens, bc if Labor loses more than 200 votes, the Greens will overtake Labor in the 3CP count and win Macnamara in 2PP count off Labor preferences.

@Drake: Labor 55% 2PP is unrealistically low. Current polling aggregate only shows a 5.6% statewide swing against Labor in Victoria. A 55% Labor 2PP in Macnamara would be equivalent to a 7.2% 2PP swing against Labor, above the statewide average. A highly-educated and high-income inner urban seat like Macnamara is not going to record an above average statewide 2PP swing against Labor.

@trent: A Greens 2CP in the 54-55% range is also unrealistically low. Assuming Labor to Greens preference flow is weaker than Greens to Labor preference flow, a Greens 2CP in the 54-55% range would be equivalent to a Labor 2PP in the 55-56% range. A 56% Labor 2PP in Macnamara would be equivalent to a 6.2% 2PP swing against Labor, still above the statewide average. As I have said, Macnamara is not going to record an above average statewide 2PP swing against Labor.

Reportage today that puts greens 2 percentage points ahead of Labor at 3CP here, following a 6 point primary drop for Labor.

https://www.ntnews.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=NTWEB_MRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ntnews.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Ffederal-election%2Fnew-poll-reveals-greens-are-facing-a-federal-election-wipeout%2Fnews-story%2F35c427b0f840dc5b1a1d83dd2d728a88&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&BT=federalelection

2% margin between Labor and Greens is well within the margin of error. Could go either way.

Joseph, 55% ALP TPP would be realistic in Macnamara due to the make-up of the electorate. 2022 was a particular bad result for the Liberal party, but in saying that, a 45% Liberal TPP would be their best case.

Any chance someone could kindly share the numbers/seats featured in that article?

Brisbane – Green primary down from 27.2 to 18.1, Lib gain
Ryan – Green down 2.8pp, Lib up 1.1pp, Lib gain
Griffith – ALP down 6.3pp, Lib up 7.9pp, too close to call.
Wills – Green up 4.8pp, Lab retain due to stronger conservative flows to Labor
Melb – Green retain
Macnamara – 3CP Lib 37, Green 28, Lab 26.

Commissioned by right-wing activist group Advance, the poll by pollster Insightfully of roughly 600 voters in each of the seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith in Queensland – which are held by the Greens – as well the Victorian seats of Wills, Macnamara, and Melbourne, which is held by Mr Bandt.

@douglas
As far as I can see, LNP hasn’t announced a candidate in Griffith, but combined Labor/Greens primary vote exceeded 60% in 2022, the above figures must mean it’s too close to call between Labor and Greens?

@Joseph, I agree with what you’re saying. I don’t see inner city seats like Macnamara having an above-average swing against Labor either; however the Liberals did have a particularly awful candidate in 2022 – I mean really, really, really bad – who probably ate into their vote even a bit more than they would have otherwise had, and they do have a surprisingly good candidate this time, so I think there could be roughly a 2% factor attached just to the difference in candidate.

The 55% Greens 2CP I mentioned was really a worst-case scenario (as a Greens voter).

I think more likely would be a roughly 57% or so Greens 2CP (and a 58-59% ALP 2PP vs LIB). That would factor in:
– Roughly 2% improvement for Libs based on far better candidate;
– On top of roughly 1-2% generic inner-city swing to Libs (below state average);
– And then a 1-2% 2CP swing vs Libs due to ALP to GRN preference flow being weaker than GRN to ALP

Interestingly, that poll commissioned by Advance looks pretty accurate to me. Those 3CP figures would translate to a GRN 2CP starting with 57 if the preference flow is anywhere between 77-80%, which is exactly where I expect it would be. And it’s a +3.3 LIB 3CP which is pretty much exactly in line with what I’d expect based on a lower than average generic swing (1-2% range) + an additional 1-2% based on candidate.

Actually those Advance figures don’t add up though as a 3CP:

37 + 28 + 26 is only 91 so there’s still a 9% other.

They look more like primary votes, so in terms of swings they would be around:
+8 LIB (seems far too high for inner city even with a better candidate)
-1.7 GRN
-5.7 ALP

I’d translate that into a 3CP more like:
40 LIB
32 GRN
28 ALP

(I think if the Libs are getting that much of a primary swing, some would be coming at the expense of right-wing minor parties so the Libs wouldn’t get the unusually big share of the minor vote that they got in 2022)

That would actually only translate to around a 54-55% Greens 2CP.

But, small sample size and before the campaign has actually started, and polls seem to be trending back towards Labor recently, I think there’s probably a 2% correction the other way that will happen.

My prediction for primary votes, based on that, would be more like 35 LIB, 28 GRN, 28 ALP but the Greens always get more minor preferences than Labor. So on those numbers it would still be GRN v LIB, and the Greens 2CP would be back in the 56-57% range.

Over the past 30 years, the Liberal party primary in Macnamara/Melbourne Ports has mostly been around the mid 30’s to low 40’s range depending on the election, and for that reason 37% looks realistic.

@Gympie You’d think so. Nope, the article insists that if MCM were to lose, it would be to the Liberals.

@Trent Right.

Advance Australia commissioned the polling. Advance Australia were pretty active in their anti-Greens campaigning at the last QLD state election and at various council elections. Word is that they are heavily targetting Greens and teals this federal election. The campaigning will be negative.

There’s commentary above that the Liberals had a dud candidate last election and so the primary vote will correct itself. I also think that the Liberal primary will improve as part of the general statewide swing away from Labor, though the swings will be smaller in inner-city and wealthier electorates.

I hold the view that the 2CP result will hinge upon Josh Burns’s personal vote. He’s had a huge profile boost in the past year and a half.

It would be hilarious if the Jewish community in Caulfield and surrounds voted Liberal in droves and pushed Labor into 3rd only for the Greens to swoop in and win the seat. It’s almost as if they’re cutting off their nose to spite their face if they did that.

Given that Burns himself had been super vocal about antisemitism and the nature of the seat, I’m fairly certain that the Liberals won’t win this seat so it’s a matter of whether the Jewish community want the same (aka Labor and Burns) or do they want the Greens. Let’s check out their reactions when they protest vote Josh Burns out and the Greens win it.

If the Labor surge at least holds or continues I expect Labor to retain here. Labor has bounced back in the polling in the last few weeks and that increase in overall support could help them maintain the status quo here.

Some context around the Liberals’ campaign (or lack thereof) in 2022:

They originally preselected some guy whose name I don’t remember who was a science fiction writer from the Albert Park area. He was invisible, and pulled out at the eleventh hour just before the campaign started.

They replaced him last minute with Colleen Harkin, a serial candidate from Brighton who vocally supported Katherine Deves and waged culture wars on social media. The Liberals basically ran dead: I saw no corflutes, no posters, received only one pamphlet, there was no indication of her courting the Jewish community in Caulfield at all, and they didn’t even have volunteers handing out HTV cards on election day, at least not in St Kilda. Not even one at my polling place, so there were no Liberal HTVCs whatsoever there. Subsequently, the Liberals got under 14% at that polling place.

This is why I think Macnamara could have a swing to the Liberals that is closer to the statewide average (or even slightly exceed it) despite being a progressive inner city seat. 2022 was just a disaster candidate and the party clearly put zero resources into the seat.

This time I’ve seen Benson Saulo corflutes around, even a couple in St Kilda (albeit on multi million dollar mansions), Australian Jewish News have been promoting him and talking up his chance of winning which might hurt Burns’ tactical vote to keep the Greens out, he has been engaging a lot with the Jewish community and turning out to a lot of events. They’re putting resources into it.

So I think while 37% would appear to be an 8% swing which seems unlikely for the inner city, it could just represent more of a return to the mean after a catastrophic one-off 2022, considering that would still be less than 2019.

That said, I don’t think it will be that high. I think Labor are rebounding a bit, so around 35-36% is probably a more likely Liberal primary vote in my view, and some of that swing will probably be offset in 2PP terms by a reduction in the right-wing minor party vote too.

I can see Labor and Greens being very close on primary vote – probably both high 20s – but the Greens tend to always get a bigger share of minor party preferences, so Labor probably need to clear the Greens by close to 2% on primary vote.

3CP difference between Labor and Greens, using 2022 minor party pref rates.

YouGov MRP: (2.3 Labor)
ALP: 33.6
GRN: 31.3

Redbridge MRP (12.6 Labor)
ALP: 36.6
GRN: 24

Redbridge seat poll (7.1 Labor)
ALP: 32.4
GRN: 25.3

Advance Australia (3.2 Greens)
ALP: 27.5
GRN: 30.7

Average:(4.7 Labor)
GRN: 27.8
Labor: 32.5

Still very close

Random thought, but if a theoretical national 2CP was calculated for GRN v LNP and GRN v ALP based on 2022 results what would the result be? I assume ALP would win a national 2CP contest against the Greens maybe 70-30 or 75-25 even? Would the Greens have won a 2CP contest nationally against the LNP in 2022? I think there’s a good chance they would.

I think that’s unlikely.

The only jurisdiction where you could calculate something like that is NSW, where they publish 2CP pairings for every combination of candidates, and also the raw ballot data so you can do calculations yourself.

I haven’t done Coalition vs Greens statewide 2CP, but I did an analysis of the reciprocity of Labor and Greens preference flows based on the 2019 results. In inner city seats like Prahran the flows are usually close to equal. But in other places, Labor flows to the Greens are a lot weaker. You see this most obviously in Lismore, but if you look at other seats where the Greens would never make the top two, Labor voters are not as sympathetic to the Greens.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/51058

@Trent: The Advance polling’s recorded primary votes in Macnamara were Liberal 37.6%, Greens 27.9%, Labor 25.9% and others 8.6%. You can also check the polling results of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan here. https://archive.md/GKf0I Assuming a Labor to Greens preference flow of 80%, and preferences from other candidates split 50-50, the estimated Greens 2CP vs LIB would only be 52.9%. Definitely not realistic, especially considering the Liberals are very unlikely to get such a large primary vote swing towards it of 8.6%.

@joseph beng that close its not certain who would finish second if its labor then a labor win if its greens it could be interesting overall id say green win on 55% 2pp

@Joseph
**Definitely not realistic, especially considering the Liberals are very unlikely to get such a large primary vote swing towards it of 8.6%.**
The 2022 candidate got 40% in 2019, 30% last time, should she run again, 40% is feasible and perhaps quite a bit more if the LNP sink some $$ into the campaign. White Collar Whiteopias such as Coorparoo/Camp Hill/Holland Park might take a punt on Green in a good economy like 2022, less likely to in this economy.
I’d say the LNP won’t have any trouble finding volunteers this time, if they sprinkile the $$ on top, an upset is on the cards.

@Gympie, the Liberals ran different candidates in 2019 compared to 2022.

In 2019 it was Kate Ashmor, a lawyer who was Jewish and put a lot of effort in especially around the Caulfield area. She got a 37.3% primary vote so similar to Advance’s polling here.

In 2022 it was Colleen Harkin. A serial candidate from Brighton who doesn’t live in the seat, recently ran in the Bayside council elections (unsuccessfully), and was a pretty hardline right-wing candidate focused on culture wars. She got 29% which is the Liberals’ lowest primary vote in the seat since 1966 when Melbourne Ports included Williamstown.

I’m certain that Colleen Harkin would have no chance of getting a Liberal primary vote anywhere near 40%; Kate Ashmor could probably get it back into the 35-37% range but then again I think so could Benson Saulo who they have selected this time, an indigenous man and actually an ex-Greens member.

I also agree that the Liberals won’t get a +8.6% primary vote swing in an inner city seat though, especially one that just added Windsor where the Liberals struggle to crack 20%, and lost the ‘South Yarra – West’ SA2 where the Liberals usually do moderately ok (over 30%).

But, as I’ve said I do think Macnamara could buck the trend of inner city seats having a smaller than average swing to the Liberals, based purely on the candidate & local campaign factors, given the Liberals ran dead with a dud in 2022 (didn’t even hand out HTVCs in some places) and are putting in effort this year with a strong candidate.

There was also a 5.8% right-wing minor party vote in 2022 which I don’t think will be repeated this time and will probably return to the Liberals. So that will add to the primary vote swing too (although that one is unlikely to contribute much, if anything, to the 3CP or 2CP swing).

With all that in mind, I can actually see the Liberals getting a possible 6-7% primary vote swing to return them to the mid-30s, much of which will just be a correction to all the factors that contributed to a 56-year low in 2022.

I think the Liberal primary vote will probably end up between 35-36%, around 2% lower than the Advance poll indicated.

That 2% will probably be added to Labor’s primary vote, putting both Labor & Greens around 28% each. That sounds realistic to me.

But at the 3CP stage, I don’t see Labor getting more minor party preferences than the Greens, so I still expect a GRN v LIB 2CP, pretty much exactly the same as my comment above from 17 March:

Primary Votes: 35+ LIB, 28+ ALP, 28 GRN, 8 Other.
(That adds up to 99, but the 35+ and 28+ indicate another 1% between ALP & LIB)

3CP: 39 LIB, 31 GRN, 30 ALP.
2CP: 55 GRN, 45 LIB.

@Trent – great analysis here with the candidates and the PV predictions, and I definitely agree with your sentiment it will be a marginal GRN v LIB. One question, do you have the source about Saulo being a former Greens member? This is news to me, I’ve seen Liberals go to the Greens (Andrew Wilkie, Johnathan Davis, Bob Brown nearly joined the Liberals when Menzies was leader), but never have heard of Greens going to the Liberals.

I don’t have a source, but Greens members have told me that.

It’s mentioned in this article here a couple of times:
https://www.southbanklocalnews.com.au/benson-saulo-to-contest-macnamara-for-the-liberal-party/

Someone also questioned him about it on a Facebook post and he confirmed it, apparently he was briefly a Greens member around 2015 or so in his 20s.

I agree that Greens to Liberals – especially with the rightward trajectory the Liberals have been on, and given Peter Dutton’s opposition to the voice (which Benson Saulo voted ‘Yes’ for) – seems like a strange move.

Thank you.

I wouldn’t think it is that strange a move – the social class of the Greens and traditional Liberals has a huge overlap, the main difference being age. I would think Greens-Lib is a lot more likely than Greens-ALP, notwithstanding the realignment underway.

I guess what I mean is that in that article, he talks about having joined the Greens due to his concerns about climate change and indigenous issues. He was actually a Greens member when Malcolm Turnbull (who supported the Voice and an ETS) was the Liberal PM too so the Liberals would have been far more aligned to his values back then they are now, and since then the Liberal Party have strayed a lot further from his own values and views on those issues.

So in that context specifically, it’s strange that as the Liberal Party have moved further to the right and further away from the very reasons he joined the Greens to begin with, that he’d make such a leap.

If it were the other way around and he had jumped from the Greens to the Liberals when Turnbull was PM, that would made more sense to me.

I think already, based on some social media interaction I have seen, he is struggling to defend a lot of Dutton’s policies and his response is that he wants to change the party’s direction “from inside the tent”. That never conveys a whole lot of confidence in the party you are running as a candidate for though.

I get what you are saying Trent, my point is that from a social class perspective the Greens have always been closer to the Liberals than Labor, ideology not withstanding. I tend to think class is a far bigger determinant of vote than ideology which is why I am not surprised.

Yeah that is true, although your point about the realignment that’s underway almost makes it even more curious and interesting.

Back when Turnbull was PM, the party was not only more progressive ideologically than now, but the realignment hadn’t really happened yet so they were also still very popular in the circles that crossover with the Greens (affluent, educated, inner city, “doctors wives” type of demographic).

And now, not only under Dutton are the Liberals less socially progressive, but the realignment of traditional voter bases has had them appealing more to Labor’s traditional blue collar base, while the affluent, professional class which once had more crossover between the Greens & Liberals has been shifting away from them.

Benson ran for preselection for the Greens in Batman in 2016

Both the Newspoll quarterly figures and the demosAU Vic fed poll have the Greens on 15% and Labor on 29-30%. The Greens vote seems to be stagnant or going backwards everywhere except Vic. If the Greens actually got 15% and Labor under 30, that would definitely put Macnamara and Wills very much in play.