IND 3.3% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Sophie Scamps, since 2022.
Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. Mackellar covers northern parts of the Northern Beaches council area. Major suburbs include Dee Why, Collaroy, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, Avalon and Frenchs Forest.
Redistribution
Mackellar expanded south, taking in Forestville, Killarney Heights and North Curl Curl from Warringah. Adding in the vote for Zali Steggall in these areas, it improved the independent margin from 2.5% to 3.3%.
History
Mackellar was created in 1949 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It had always been won by the Liberal Party with substantial margins, prior to 2022.
The seat was first won in 1949 by William Wentworth, grandson of colonial political figure William Charles Wentworth. Wentworth had previously polled 20% of the vote in the seat of Wentworth (named after his grandfather) as an independent in 1943.
Wentworth was a leading red-baiter in Parliament during the 1950s, although he remained in Parliament for almost two decades after winning Mackellar. He was close to John Gorton, and when Gorton became Prime Minister in early 1968 he appointed Wentworth to cabinet as the first ever federal minister with responsibility for Aboriginal affairs. Wentworth remained on the frontbench under Billy McMahon and served in the ministry until McMahon’s defeat in 1972.
Wentworth announced his retirement in 1977, but didn’t wait for the election to resign from the Liberal Party, after returning to the role of outspoken backbench rebel during the first term of the Fraser government. He ran as an independent for the Senate in 1977 and polled 2%.
Wentworth was succeeded in Mackellar by Liberal candidate Jim Carlton, who had served as the state party’s General Secretary during the 1970s. Carlton served as a minister in the final year of the Fraser government, and was a frontbencher in the Liberal opposition from the Hawke government’s election in 1983 until the 1990 election. Carlton retired from Parliament in 1994.
The ensuing by-election was won by sitting Senator and Liberal frontbencher Bronwyn Bishop. Bishop had been a Senator for New South Wales since 1987, and had been a prominent Opposition frontbencher, and had been discussed as a possible leadership contender. She played a prominent role in the opposition frontbench after winning the by-election, but her colleagues did not share her assessment of her leadership potential, and she was passed over in favour of first Alexander Downer and then John Howard.
Bishop was re-elected to seven full terms from 1996 to 2013. Bishop was appointed to a junior ministerial role after the election of the Howard government in 1996. She was dropped from the ministry after the 2001 election after a controversial tenure as Minister for Ageing. She was elected Speaker after the 2013 election, but was forced to step down in August 2015 after criticisms over extravagant travel expenses.
Bishop lost Liberal preselection to Jason Falinski in 2016. Falinski won Mackellar in 2016 and was re-elected in 2019.
Falinski was defeated in 2022 by local independent candidate Sophie Scamps.
Assessment
Mackellar is a very marginal seat, but Scamps now has the advantage of incumbency which will makes her the favourite to win re-election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Falinski | Liberal | 40,993 | 41.4 | -11.6 | 40.5 |
| Sophie Scamps | Independent | 37,724 | 38.1 | +38.1 | 38.5 |
| Paula Goodman | Labor | 8,162 | 8.2 | -8.7 | 8.4 |
| Ethan Hrnjak | Greens | 6,032 | 6.1 | -5.4 | 6.3 |
| Christopher Ball | United Australia | 2,881 | 2.9 | +0.6 | 2.9 |
| Darren Dickson | One Nation | 2,624 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Barry Steele | TNL | 575 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 3,884 | 3.8 | -0.9 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sophie Scamps | Independent | 51,973 | 52.5 | 53.3 | |
| Jason Falinski | Liberal | 47,018 | 47.5 | 46.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Falinski | Liberal | 58,012 | 58.6 | -4.6 | 57.9 |
| Paula Goodman | Labor | 40,979 | 41.4 | +4.6 | 42.1 |
Mackellar covers all of the former Pittwater council area and a majority of the former Warringah council area, all now contained in the Northern Beaches council area. All of the polling places in the Pittwater area have been grouped together as “north”. Those in Warringah have been split between “south-east” on the coast and “west” further inland.
Scamps won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.8% in the west to 57.8% in the north.
| Voter group | IND 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 54.7 | 22,687 | 20.3 |
| North | 57.8 | 19,073 | 17.1 |
| West | 51.8 | 15,909 | 14.2 |
| Pre-poll | 52.0 | 36,779 | 32.9 |
| Other votes | 50.7 | 17,413 | 15.6 |
Election results in Mackellar at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and independent candidates
The Liberal Party have preselected James Brown to run at the next election. Was a very tight race all the way through, and a controversial winner at that.
James Brown moved to the Northern Beaches in 2022, after divorcing from Daisy Turnbull (daughter of Malcolm) and beat off a host of local candidates, including Vicky McGahey, Former Councillor Michael Gencher, Co-Founder of Pandora Australia Brook Adcock and Intelligence expert Lincoln Parker.
What’s our thoughts around this seat? IND retain with the recent overlapping NSW state seat going IND.
expect IND to retain. Scamps campaign seems to be around cost-of-living/economic issues. Her current policy is a tax free threshold for small businesses
No comment from anybody so far on the Northern Beaches Council issue-background here:
https://www.northernbeachesadvocate.com.au/2025/01/29/residents-rage-over-rate-rise/
Those councillors who voted for the rate rise are independents who would be Scamps supporters.They are in power thanks to the Liberals failing to nominate in the last election.
Scamps has purported to distance herself from the rate rise,but she may face problems in doing so.
6 months ago I would have said Scamps would walk this in but the Council 40% rate rise changed the contest.
Scamps made a critical and possibly fatal error by endorsing and promoting many of the councillors who voted for the rate rise and hand out for the Teals, and she put herself in this position by putting it all over her own social media. She then had a train wreck of an interview on day time Sky News which is being shared everywhere and openly mocked.
The reaction on the ground/online has been quite fierce and every social media group (which are very heavily suburb based) is being flooded with a very angry mob with baseball bats against the Teals (with the only exception being the Teal stronghold of Avalon).
There’s no doubt the reaction has caught Scamps by surprise and she’s now got her staffers out running defence all over social media. I would say she starts as favourite because she has time to see if the issue dies down, a larger volunteer base, far more cash than the Libs and Climate 200. But this contest is definitely going to be far closer now and a swing against is at least in scope now.
yes – liberals are trying to blame greens/teals for the rate rise and tie this with Scamps and Steggle
From the voting record in council it seems some greens and independent were against the rate rise – not that facts matter too much here
Reliably informed polling completed shortly before the Council rate rise was 2PP LIB 51 and IND 49 and focus groups were incredibly negative about Scamps lack of work in the seat (as opposed to her policy work outside of it which has been decent). A bit of a surprise result since Scamps has only had 3 years.
Have also confirmed:
1. Scamps is moving quickly into battle mode and has no choice but to start spending early. She is setting up a campaign office in Dee Why (across the road from the Libs campaign office which has been running since before Christmas!). I wonder if we’ll get a handshake in the middle of a busy Pittwater Road!
2. The Libs have been quietly bullish since they lost the seat as they felt that it had nothing to do with the previous member and was largely Scomo’s reputation in the area. They had pinpointed Scamps as vulnerable because they quickly worked out she doesn’t have the political nuance like other Teals e.g. Spender and lacks a narrative that she could work with the Coalition/Dutton (who she regularly criticises online). I guess it’ll always be the challenge for the Teals to keep onside their ex Lib voters who don’t want a Labor govt.
Keep this seat high on your radar. I think the media will be watching it a lot closer soon.
Fun Fact – James Brown’s Campaign office is the Old Godfrey’s store in Dee Why.
That sucks…
Ok I’ll see myself out
news limited have given Tony Abbott some air time around the council rate rise issue
Out of the three Sydney-based teal seats, this would be the tightest I reckon.
The post-redistribution estimate is a bit inflated due to Zali Steggall’s personal vote in the newly-added parts – North Curl Curl and Killarney Heights.
Doesn’t Rory ‘s ex seat fall 8n this
Electorate
Mick, Rory Amon? Yes, it’s Pittwater which is at the northern end of the electorate.
for reference the state seats of Pittwater and wakehurst cover most of this electorate and are currently held by independents
The remainder is half of the state seat of Davidson – currently held by the Liberals and also the area that is likely to have the highest Liberal party first preference vote
Jeff Quinn announced as the candidate for Mackellar. Woo hoo.
*Labor’s candidate.
“Park Bench Politics” keeps advertising on Meta across Mackellar pushing a new party called the Good Party and their content looks like possibly Narrabeen so must be a NB start up. Never heard of them but they have a Mackellar doctor running. Looking at their pretty extensive policy positions they look to the left and similar to greens and teals depending on the issue.
Know much about them Ben Raue? I don’t think they’re registered but are taking donations
https://www.goodparty.com.au/candidates
They are a tad presumptious referring to “our member” …. they are not elected so why not “our candidate”? They could be done dishonesty as the “member” is the sitting MP.
The same guy is touted as both cabdidate for Page and Mackellar. They are a funny mix – peo business and gung ho on China – but left wing on other things.
Redistributed it’s a common mistake but yes they should correct
According to the AFR. “The liberals believe they close but behind in Mackellar and Warringah. But have privately conceded Spender is unbeatable in Wentworth”. If Dutton wins 2 or 3 teal seats he’s won. There simply won’t be enough cross benches for Albo to win.
Nats are also reportedly bracing for a loss in Calare
@Redistributed Yeah, I noticed that too, Member as opposed to Candidate. It is incorrect, and presumptuous. They haven’t read the tea leaves and aren’t going to win, so I don’t see why they’d bother. It’s not like they would harvest enough votes for the Senate either. The Page and Mackellar mix-up is suss!
Whoever is polling Warringah and getting a close result needs to rethink their methods. It’s not even a marginal seat, Steggal has a 9% margin and she’s very well entrenched in the seat. There may be a slight correction because of the awful candidate the Libs had last time, but it won’t be close.
Adam they won’t win Mackellar or warringah in my opinion. However Kooyong and Goldstein are in play and in my opinion the libs will win Curtin
If Monique Ryan could beat Josh Frydenburg, who was popular in his electorate, and had a high personal vote, and was one of the highest profile MPs in the country, then there’s no way she loses to a much lower profile candidate while she is the incumbent. Regardless of how good of a candidate Amelia Hamer may be.
Adam your forgetting people hated scomo and to some extent the liberal party at that time. And there wasnt a cost of living crisis and other factors in play. This all came into play. Plus there was just a redistribution. If people shift back to the Libs or preference them ahead of her it’s entirely possible.
Dutton is just as unpopular as Scomo in these parts, and the cost of living crisis isn’t as acute in the teal seats. The people it is affecting most in Kooyong are the younger people around Glenferrie who would never vote Liberal anyway.
There were so many factors at play last time:
– the widespread loathing of Scott Morrison.
– the ‘Me Too’ that fed into the loathing of Morrison.
– the Pandemic was raw and recent and people were exhausted.
– Labor were not being led by Bill Shorten – who inspired a certain dislike in the wider public.
Morrison is gone, the gloss has gone off some of
The “Me Too” players, people particularly as I can see in Victoria feel scarred by the memory of
The lockdowns, and Albo has had three years abd to be honest has been a tad underwhelming. In an uncertain world, there may be less of an appetite for a minority government.
For Monique Ryan in particular, she won more because of federal government criticism/attacks at the Victorian government being perceived as slights against voters in Victoria in general (also driven effectively by the Victorian government who already had a long stoush with the feds since 2014 with regards to federal funding for infrastructure – the money for the EW Link was always used as an example, arguably quite effectively), with Josh Frydenberg seen as being a part of that, if not tied to the hip of Scomo altogether despite being Victorian himself. The teals all mainly won due to heavy dislike of Scomo, but in her case it also overcame the personal vote Josh Frydenberg had (of all the Liberals unseated by teals, he had the largest personal vote by far).
A similar example would be criticism of China by the feds during and right after the pandemic perceived as attacks on ethnic Chinese voters, for which they responded in kind.
The teal seats have their own momentum. They by definition are wealthier than other seats. So cost of living factors impact less.
The liberal voters are rusted on.
Why would alp and Green voters shift to liberals?
My suspicion .. status quo teal is minus 1 courtesy of the abolition of North Sydney.
Chance in Bradfield!
Adam it’s Labor who are the nose in Vic Dutton and the Libs have never been more popular liberals are on the verge of winning mcewen Hawke corangamite dunklet holt and Bruce.
Darth
The only seat that is even possible is
MCEWEN
That seat is much less likely than the
Classic marginal seats
Chisholm
Deakin
Aston
Mick you are gonna be so disappointed on election noght. The Libs will win Aston deakin mcewen and probably Chisholm too.corangamite holt Hawke Bruce and likely Gorton will be close but likely Labor holds but Labor won’t be winning by anything more then a toenail this time. I’m giving Conroy good odds at winning dunkley.
And the teals well the nsw seats are safe but curtin will fail and the Libs will give kooyong and goldstein a crack
Let’s get this chat back to Mackellar. The Good Party have this Doctor on their Instagram as Mackellar not Page. Might just be a mistake on their website.
So far the lineup is Teal, Libs, Labor, Greens, Good Party (assume as independent if not registered?), Libertarians (talk is Doug Rennie who ran in the Pittwater by-election is a start – they have been active and hijacked one of Scamps events in Avalon during the week). Trumpets of Patriots is running in all seats including Mackellar. I’m expecting One Nation to run a ghost candidate like they did in 2022.
Looking like an interesting field where preferences will be crucial for both Teal and Libs.
@Avcat, I gather that teh Good Party (and its candidates) are yet to collect enough signatories to be eligible to run in this election.
Last time, PHONy did one better than just a ghost, they deployed a parachute ghost.
Very spooky if you ask me.
It wouldn’t totally surprise me if Rennie is running.
What event of Scamps’ did they “hijack”, and what did they do?
Yes, sounds like a colourful field this time.
I saw in a local Facebook group a video of the Libertarians heckling Scamps on the panel of her Avalon health and climate event then at the end trying to ask her their apparently pre-approved question but she does a runner. Not a great look from Scamps. The Libertarians have really been going after her for weeks now since her poor interview on Sky News about the council rate rise.
Personally I find all those sort of antics very off-putting and out of sync with the NB which is a relaxed place, but it’s also not unprecedented given the Teals were quite aggressive towards the Liberals when they were in the seats.
I guess Mackellar has changed a lot from the days where you’d only see Bishop around election time and the results reflect that.
UComms polling the seat
A Climate 200 spokesperson has confirmed they commissioned an interesting poll into Mackellar: https://www.northernbeachesadvocate.com.au/2025/03/16/push-polling-revealed-in-mackellar/
Ethan Hrnjak announced on his social media that he is the Greens candidate again.
Yeah, it was announced by various Greens last week. He’s a friend of a friend.
Upcoming budget to include funding to help complete the stalled Mona Vale Road upgrade. Scamps to claim credit
Plenty of James Brown posters up
Guess the local Liberal branch might be cashed up for this campaign with the money they saved not running for the local council
I do expect a bounce-back to the Liberal Party on Primary Vote, with no Morrison Factor.
What will be interesting are the Liberal Votes who voted for Scamps just to get back at Falinski. There was plenty of Falinski hate in the area, but blowing in James Brown, who is almost cut from the same cloth as him, will do nothing to help.
AE Forecasts has Scamps increasing her margin by 1PP, I disagree with that. My money is that she retains with no significant shift in her 2CP.
Hawkeye, is James Brown considered too conservative, or is he from outside the northern beaches area?
Either or both of these factors will make him less attractive for the small l liberal type voters in this district
It’s spotty. He grew up in Collaroy but now lives in Great Mackerel Beach, which is basically only accessible via Ferry from Palm Beach.
He left for his military service (understandable) and ended up married to Daisy Turnbull (Malcolm’s Daughter) and they ended up living in the Eastern Suburbs for the entire time.
Following the divorce, he moved back up to the Northern Beaches.
In terms of his allegiance within the party, he is definitely from the moderate side of the party, similar to Jason Falinski. Part of the question will be whether the electors will accept him coming back after being gone for so long. The Northern Beaches can be VERY Parochial…
Hawkeye, if Falinski was a moderate how come he wasn’t that liked by locals in the area? Was it because he was seen as an ‘outsider’ or was he too close to disgraced MP Bronwyn Bishop?
@hawkeye_au – James Brown is not from the moderate faction. It was reported the moderates and the right factions each backed other candidates in the preselection. He is centre-right and won preselection with support of branches which are still loyal to Bronwyn Bishop (who also endorsed him)
@Yoh An – Falinski had been working to white-ant Bronwyn Bishop for a while and eventually managed to do so. He had a massive image problem from the start and made it worse with calling himself a moderate and appearing regularly on Sky After Dark. He lost his narrative from that point on.
@AvCat – He can claim it all he wants… but remember who he was married to… Besides, the Centre-Right Influence in the seat doesn’t exist anymore, since Damian Jones and Natasha MacLaren-Jones spend more time in the Southern Highlands than the seat.
“It’s spotty. He grew up in Collaroy … ended up living in the Eastern Suburbs ”
Also, Scamps grew up in Turramurra and ended up living on the Northern Beaches – so no real advantage either way.
At my local shops saw a few elderly residents with overt political support. One old guy with an “Albo” cap and another elderly lady with a Sophie Scamps t-shirt