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Labor hold.
Yeah, I don’t know how that one poll has it close. Mike Freelander seems to be fairly popular from what I’ve heard, and for Labor to be close to losing here I would’ve thought would only happen in a 1975/1996 style defeat. Definite Labor hold in my eyes
macarthur seems to fit the bill of the Liberals targeting outer suburban working class labor seats. i think that labors margin here specifically Mike Freelanders personal vote will however save them here. though i imagin the sat will become marginal and if the liberals are still in opposition come 2028 he wont be able to withstand a landslide when the liberals sweep to power.
he was elected on basically a pretty favourable boundary change in 2016 and in the last 2 election including both the liberal revival in 2019 and when labor swept across nsw to regain govt in 2022 his vote was basically unchanged from 2016. so i imagine he will face a swing against him but im not sure that will be enough to unseat him this time around.
@Nick G @John – I live in this seat.
This is a seat I feel that has an underperforming margin but an excellent and hard-working MP in Mike Freelander. At state level this would be very safe but the Liberals at federal level have held here so they do put a bit more effort in.
Freelander will hold this seat until the sun sets. He’s mega-popular, very active and involved in the community, and the Labor branches in Campbelltown are definitely competent. The Liberals are not winning unless Freelander is not the MP of Labor is electorally trounced.
To an extent, with Dutton as leader I think the Liberals can make a substantial dent in the margin, but not enough to win. Dutton will do well with families and less well-off voters who are struggling with COL, etc. but winning would take a lot of resources and potential gaffes/controversy with Mike Freelander.
At the end of the day, this is a seat the Liberals can do well in under a more conservative leader, but Freelander’s personal vote will save him even if Labor lost the election, as well as the public housing areas like Airds and Claymore which vote 80%+ 2PP for Labor, as well as decent Liberal-leaning areas (Glen Alpine, Ruse, Gledswood/Gregory Hills) having trended to Labor, likely because of Dr. Freelander.
@James im inclined to agree with you. i think that it will be a labor hold as its not gonna be a landslide and his vote didnt suffer when the liberals bounced back in 2019. i think he will suffer about 5% wing against him. but if the liberals are still in opposition in 2028 and they sweep to power in a landslide even Freelander would be hard to hold on.
Hard to see Mike Freelander going around again in 2028 – he would be 75 or so by then.
@redistributed agreed he may head for the exit when labor are about to get thrashed. i think we will see a whole heap of people from labor jump ship in 2028 if theres gonna be a liberal landslide. Dreyfus down in isaacs is a likely one too. we already know Bob katter will likely retire in 2028 as well. Likely Tony Zapia in Makin and Anne Webster in Mallee. there are others but none in what youd consider to be safe enough seats that they may be voted out before they retire.
Macarthur on current boundaries will remain alp held short of a large landslide
@Mick if Freelander were to retire in 2028. Landslide or not Libs would likely win.
@ vader
The boundaries are such that short of a one in 50 year landslide this is Labor retained
@mick Macarthur is prime hunting ground for the Liberals in their targetting off outer surburban working class labor seats. the only thing that will keep this from falling in 2025 is Mike Freelanders personal vote. in 2028 i imagine no matter if he retires or not if the libs are still in opposition they are in trouble here
@john
The main determinant of this seat is the boundaries.This applies in either 2025 and 2028
It won’t be alp drops 5% 2025 then the remainder 2028
@mick it will drop at least 4-5% this time 2028 will depend on who is in government and if freelancer recontests
Unlike Macarthur werriwa doesn’t have a strong mp and is under serious threat this time