ALP 9.8%
Incumbent MP
Mike Freelander, since 2016.
Geography
Macarthur covers most of the City of Campbelltown (except for Macquarie Fields and Glenfield) and small parts of the Camden and Liverpool council area. The key suburbs are Campbelltown, Minto, Leumeah, St Andrews, Raby, Bradbury, Ambarvale and Rosemeadow.
Redistribution
Macarthur lost Harrington Park, Leppington, Oran Park and Rossmore to Hume and lost Ingleburn to Hughes. Macarthur gained part of Bardia and the Crossroads from Werriwa. These changes increased the Labor margin from 8.5% to 9.8%.
History
Macarthur was first created at the 1949 election, and has moved around southwestern Sydney, the southern highlands and the Illawarra over the last sixty years. The seat was a bellwether seat from 1949 until 2007, when the Liberals managed to hold on to the seat.
The seat was held from 1949 until 1972 by Jeff Bate of the Liberal Party, who became an independent in 1972 after losing preselection, before losing to the ALP’s John Kerin. Kerin held the seat until 1975. He later won the neighbouring seat of Werriwa in a 1978 by-election following the retirement of Gough Whitlam and served as a minister in the Hawke government, including a brief term as Treasurer following Paul Keating’s move to the backbench.
Michael Baume won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1975 and held the seat until the 1983 election, when he too was defeated. Baume returned to politics as a Senator following the 1984 election. He was defeated in 1983 by the ALP’s Colin Hollis, who transferred to the Illawarra seat of Throsby in 1984 following the expansion of the House of Representatives.
Hollis was succeeded in 1984 by Stephen Martin, who transferred to the seat of Cunningham in 1993 following a redistribution which presumably shifted Macarthur out of the Illawarra, which is now covered by Cunningham and Throsby. Martin went on to serve as Speaker during the final term of the Keating government and his 2002 retirement triggered the Cunningham by-election, which was won by the Greens. Chris Haviland held the seat for one term before he was defeated for Labor preselection in 1996 and retirement.
The new Labor candidate was defeated by former Liberal premier John Fahey, who had previously been the state member for Southern Highlands before his government was defeated in 1995. Fahey served as Finance Minister in the first two terms of the Howard government.
A 2001 redistribution saw Macarthur move out of the Southern Highlands and take in parts of southern Campbelltown, which had previously been included in Werriwa. This gave the ALP a notional majority in the seat, and the party nominated recurrent Mayor of Campbelltown Meg Oates. Fahey originally planned to transfer to the seat of Hume, which now covered his heartland territory around Bowral and Moss Vale, although he eventually retired at the 2001 election due to health problems.
The Liberal Party eventually preselected ultramarathon runner and charity fundraiser Pat Farmer, a personal favourite of John Howard, and he managed to win the seat with a swing to the Liberal Party. The 2004 election saw Farmer solidify his hold on the seat, holding the seat with a 9.5% margin.
Despite his margin increasing to over 11% thanks to a favourable redistribution, Pat Farmer barely held on in 2007.
The redistribution prior to the 2010 election made Macarthur a notional Labor seat. Farmer was defeated for Liberal preselection by former Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson, who went on to retain the seat for the Liberal Party. Matheson was re-elected in 2013.
Another redistribution brought Macarthur into more Labor-friendly territory in 2016, and Matheson lost to Labor candidate Mike Freelander. Freelander was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Assessment
Macarthur is a reasonably safe Labor seat, although some polling has suggested the seat could be in play.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mike Freelander | Labor | 51,001 | 45.9 | -1.9 | 46.9 |
| Binod Paudel | Liberal | 33,867 | 30.5 | -0.4 | 29.3 |
| Adam Zahra | One Nation | 8,876 | 8.0 | -0.6 | 8.0 |
| Jayden Rivera | Greens | 8,584 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 7.8 |
| Rosa Sicari | United Australia | 6,602 | 5.9 | +3.4 | 5.9 |
| Scott Korman | Liberal Democrats | 2,197 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 2.2 |
| Informal | 8,646 | 7.2 | -1.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mike Freelander | Labor | 65,039 | 58.5 | +0.1 | 59.8 |
| Binod Paudel | Liberal | 46,088 | 41.5 | -0.1 | 40.2 |
Booths in Macarthur have been divided into four groups: central, north-east, north-west and south. Three of these areas are contained entirely in the City of Campbelltown, while the north-west covers booths in three different council areas.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, with just 53.7% in the north-west and a vote ranging from 62.5% in the south to 65.1% in the centre.
| Voter group | ON prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 8.8 | 62.5 | 12,885 | 14.9 |
| North-East | 8.3 | 64.1 | 12,430 | 14.4 |
| Central | 8.5 | 65.1 | 11,835 | 13.7 |
| North-West | 7.6 | 53.7 | 9,488 | 11.0 |
| Pre-poll | 7.2 | 57.6 | 28,355 | 32.8 |
| Other votes | 8.3 | 57.0 | 11,506 | 13.3 |
Election results in Macarthur at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Labor hold.
Yeah, I don’t know how that one poll has it close. Mike Freelander seems to be fairly popular from what I’ve heard, and for Labor to be close to losing here I would’ve thought would only happen in a 1975/1996 style defeat. Definite Labor hold in my eyes
macarthur seems to fit the bill of the Liberals targeting outer suburban working class labor seats. i think that labors margin here specifically Mike Freelanders personal vote will however save them here. though i imagin the sat will become marginal and if the liberals are still in opposition come 2028 he wont be able to withstand a landslide when the liberals sweep to power.
he was elected on basically a pretty favourable boundary change in 2016 and in the last 2 election including both the liberal revival in 2019 and when labor swept across nsw to regain govt in 2022 his vote was basically unchanged from 2016. so i imagine he will face a swing against him but im not sure that will be enough to unseat him this time around.
@Nick G @John – I live in this seat.
This is a seat I feel that has an underperforming margin but an excellent and hard-working MP in Mike Freelander. At state level this would be very safe but the Liberals at federal level have held here so they do put a bit more effort in.
Freelander will hold this seat until the sun sets. He’s mega-popular, very active and involved in the community, and the Labor branches in Campbelltown are definitely competent. The Liberals are not winning unless Freelander is not the MP of Labor is electorally trounced.
To an extent, with Dutton as leader I think the Liberals can make a substantial dent in the margin, but not enough to win. Dutton will do well with families and less well-off voters who are struggling with COL, etc. but winning would take a lot of resources and potential gaffes/controversy with Mike Freelander.
At the end of the day, this is a seat the Liberals can do well in under a more conservative leader, but Freelander’s personal vote will save him even if Labor lost the election, as well as the public housing areas like Airds and Claymore which vote 80%+ 2PP for Labor, as well as decent Liberal-leaning areas (Glen Alpine, Ruse, Gledswood/Gregory Hills) having trended to Labor, likely because of Dr. Freelander.
@James im inclined to agree with you. i think that it will be a labor hold as its not gonna be a landslide and his vote didnt suffer when the liberals bounced back in 2019. i think he will suffer about 5% wing against him. but if the liberals are still in opposition in 2028 and they sweep to power in a landslide even Freelander would be hard to hold on.
Hard to see Mike Freelander going around again in 2028 – he would be 75 or so by then.
@redistributed agreed he may head for the exit when labor are about to get thrashed. i think we will see a whole heap of people from labor jump ship in 2028 if theres gonna be a liberal landslide. Dreyfus down in isaacs is a likely one too. we already know Bob katter will likely retire in 2028 as well. Likely Tony Zapia in Makin and Anne Webster in Mallee. there are others but none in what youd consider to be safe enough seats that they may be voted out before they retire.
Macarthur on current boundaries will remain alp held short of a large landslide
@Mick if Freelander were to retire in 2028. Landslide or not Libs would likely win.
@ vader
The boundaries are such that short of a one in 50 year landslide this is Labor retained
@mick Macarthur is prime hunting ground for the Liberals in their targetting off outer surburban working class labor seats. the only thing that will keep this from falling in 2025 is Mike Freelanders personal vote. in 2028 i imagine no matter if he retires or not if the libs are still in opposition they are in trouble here
@john
The main determinant of this seat is the boundaries.This applies in either 2025 and 2028
It won’t be alp drops 5% 2025 then the remainder 2028
@mick it will drop at least 4-5% this time 2028 will depend on who is in government and if freelancer recontests
Unlike Macarthur werriwa doesn’t have a strong mp and is under serious threat this time
Raue what is your opinion given you previously ran here?
Macarthur pre Dr Freelander had different boundaries lots of Camden and I think south campbelltown. This made a marginal to fairly safe liberal seat.
Now all of Campbelltown is in this seat those boundaries determine who wins
I also believe that Labor will hold. Dr Freelander has a sizable buffer and personal vote.
I heard Kos Samaras on the ABC interestingly say his research shows this as a likely Coalition pickup. I think what he did was he came up with polling for outer suburban electorates and then extrapolated the results.
Im also saying Labor hold but i wont be surprised if im wrong here. The 9% margin seems a bit much to overcome in one election. If libs are still in opposition in 2028 and/or Freelander retires after this election they might be within range probably a 4-5% swing though.
the individual seat polling from oct/nov has a 52-48 lib result
primary vote
LIB ALP GRN ONP OTH
41% 32% 12% — 15%
i think labor will still win at this stage but i think the libs mght be competitive.
I can’t see the Liberals winning Macarthur. Yes it is an outer-suburban mortgage belt working-class seat but candidate quality is key. Labor has the incumbency advantage and a strong MP in Mike Freelander whereas the Liberals are running Binod Paudel again. Even as a resident I can’t see the Liberals putting in the effort to win back this seat.
Also the Green vote IMO is quite high considering the Greens have never done too well in Campbelltown. They did get 10% in 2024 at the LG elections but the Liberals didn’t run so likely had an increase there.
Either way, if the Liberals do win Macarthur it will likely be because it would be a vote for Dutton, not for Paudel.
@james im in agreement whilst it is in seats the liberals will be targetting i think labor will be mobolizing resources to defend here. just as they are doing in werriwa which is far more vunerable in my opinion with a lower margin and a luckluster mp. simply posting the seat opinion poll that was talked about i can see the libs shaving some of that 9% but cant currently see them winning here. though i wont rule it out and wont be surprised of an upset.
@james if libs win here they are probably in majority government too
Macarthur is based on all of Campbelltown plus a small part of Camden. This seat is as close as you can get to a guaranteed alp seat.
Hume is the reverse which Labor cannot win unless there is a substantial part of Camden in it.
@mick a guaranteed labor seat is newcastle, Fremantle, maribyrnong, Adelaide. while i dont think it will flip it may just as this is an ideal place for the libs to target neighbouring werriwa is gonna be close but i dont think you can guarantee macarthur beyond doubt.
I hear libs are really confident here despite the larger margin. If they are able to hold it it’s because of freelanders personal vote. Will probably be freelanders last election either way.
Alp retain
Ben, there is a mistake in the description for this seat as it mentions Shortland not Macarthur.
@james (irexland)
Agree with most of your sentiments as also live in the seat, but not sure how you describe Gledswood Hills and Gregory Hills as “decent Liberal-leaning areas”
2022 Federal Results
ALP 2PP
Gregory Hills 54%
Gledswood Hills 56%
2023 State Results
ALP Primary
Gregory Hills 48%
Gledswood Hills 48%
(Libs were in low 30%)
Labor dominating here for last 3 years. These are the new Labor heartlands. New young families who care less about ideology and more about service delivery.
Fixed, thanks.
At the 2023 state election, Labor got bigger than average swings in overlapping seats – Camden, Campbelltown and Leppington. In 2022, federal Labor got above-average swings in Camden LGA, including Gledswood Hills and Gregory Hills. It might also have to do with population growth and suburbanisation.
Service delivery, including transport links, and cost of living are key issues. It’s worth noting that Camden LGA is one of the most, if not the most, mortgage-stressed electorate. Here, there is a young-ish population.
@argyle the col issue is whats gonna be biting those young families. id say alp retain based on freelanders personal vote. though i will not be surprised if theres an upset.
I’m not sure why there’s an assumption that people suffering from the COL crisis will automatically punish Labor for it. I don’t think that gives voters enough credit to understand the causes.
Just because somebody is impacted by cost of living pressures, which have been experienced globally regardless of which side of politics is in power in any given country, that doesn’t mean they will blame it on the Labor government, or assume that the Liberal Party would have done a better job.
There are likely a lot of voters who may be impacted by cost of living pressures who think “Thank god Labor were in because imagine how much worse it would have been if the Liberals were in” or “Imagine how much worse it would have been without Labor’s childcare subsidies and energy rebates”.
It’s very simplistic to think cost of living pressures = voters will blame the party in power.
Many voters will be switched on enough to know that inflation was at over 6% when the Liberals left office and is now under 3%. Interest rates had just started rising when the Liberals left office but have just started being cut under Labor. Real wages were going backwards under the Liberals, and in the last year have actually increased for the first time in years.
It’s a bit insulting to assume that all voters will simply blame a party who has only been in government for 3 years, for every issue that is hurting people all around the world.
This thread is active again, so might as well put my thoughts here so far.
I live in Glen Alpine, a southern suburb, and one that used to vote Liberal until 2022 when Labor won here. I can say it is very quiet. I have not seen a single corflute for Freelander, Paudel, practically no one really. It’s weird because this will be a hot swing suburb. If the swing is on here, I’d expect Glen Alpine to be Liberal leaning, except for Mike Freelander’s personal vote being present.
Additionally, no real campaigning elsewhere in the electorate. I haven’t been doorknocked, nor have any of my neighbours. Again, out of character with a swingy area which is quite aspirationalist and CoL will be the big issue.
I stand by my belief that if the Liberals win, it will be because of Dutton and a vote against Labor, not a vote against Freelander or to an extent, a vote for Paudel. He is well-liked in Macarthur, and I’m personally sceptical of Paudel’s preselection again. Nonetheless, if he works hard, I could see his candidacy as another factor. I predict a Labor retain but some big swings in the electorate, remember the redistribution removed Harrington Park and Catherine Field which are strong Liberal areas, so I would argue the redistribution should save Labor for now. When Dr. Freelander retires, I’d expect a Liberal pickup unless Labor runs a strong candidate (Greg Warren comes to mind).
@Argyle Street – I understand that, but my definition of ‘decent Liberal areas’ in Macarthur is different to other seats (e.g. Barker, Mitchell, where most booths are above 60% 2PP). The booths at Gregory Hills and Gledswood Hills are below the 2PP for Macarthur, and in addition have voted Liberal in the past. I would say CoL is obviously the big issue here, and if the Liberals win this seat I would imagine those booths would flip too. I will definitely not call those booths ‘decent Liberal’, and I will revise my statement to that they are ‘trending Labor booths’. Sorry for the misclarification.
theres literally a video of Mike Freelander asking people not to punish him personally
While I agree Trent, you could also argue most voters will be switched on enough to know power price rises of 40%+ will flow through into the cost of everything they buy, or that inflation is a consequence of lockdowns, which Labor wanted to go further and harder on. There is a lot going on atm.
Update: I’ve seen my first corflute of the election, a poster near the Blair Athol ALDI for Connie Harvey, the Libertarian candidate here. Other than that no corflutes, posters, or any advertising for Freelander or Paudel.
Odd. I don’t go out all that much but I first saw corflutes in Oxley and Rankin several weeks ago! I would’ve though Macarthur would be more competitive than either of those.
I’m hoping for a decent liberal swing in Rankin give Chalmers the shakes
Another update: first corflutes for Mike Freelander spotted in Glen Alpine on a log & wire fence at the intersection between Cleopatra Drive and Englorie Park Drive. Only two but I expect to see more.