Lyons – Australia 2025

Today it was confirmed Brian Mitchell is retiring and Rebecca White will contest Lyons for Labor.

congratulations to Susie Bower on her election to the seat of Lyons

@James my question is why she would bother. She is most likely going to lose. On state results Bass, Braddon and Lyons would be Liberal seats while Clark and Franklin would be Labor seats. The Tasmanian Liberals are obviously more moderate than their federal counterparts but even then I still think the Liberals will gain this, they just may not do as well in the Hobart booths which is what’s dragging them down in this seat.

But more importantly, Rebecca White lost three consecutive elections as Opposition Leader. She was Labor leader, then she was dumped, then she came back shortly after. I get that she was a state member for Lyons for so long but I think that she needs to just call it quits and retire. Same goes for Kristina Keneally, she never should’ve been a Senator after she led NSW Labor to what was at the time the worst ever defeat of a sitting government in Australian history in 2011.

Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but since this electorate has heaps of mountains and Tasmania is quite cold (the climate of Tassie is somewhat similar to that of southern England and while the winters are colder in New York than those in Hobart and even those in London, the summers in London and Hobart are actually colder than those in New York), but could this be the coldest electorate in Australia or would Franklin be colder? Franklin is further south but has less mountains (both of the state’s ski resorts are in the seat of Lyons).

Frank Nicklin lost five elections in a row as leader of the Queensland Country Party before becoming a relatively successful premier. By your metric, NP, he should have packed it in after 1950.

The coldest place in Australia is a place called Liawenee which is situated in the division of Lyons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liawenee#:~:text=Liawenee%20is%20the%20coldest%20permanently,stationed%20permanently%20in%20the%20town.

@real talk shes not running as leader shes just the candidate for lyons now.

@Real Talk (I believe this is your first comment on a non-Queensland-related post), that’s one exceptional case. Personally I even think Lawrence Springborg should’ve passed the baton that is the leadership on to someone else. If a leader leads a party to two or three defeats in a row they should retire.

@John correct, Liawenee (a very small village in the Central Highlands) is the coldest permanently inhabited place in Australia (Antarctica and the islands in the Southern Ocean e.g Macquarie Island (which is part of Franklin) have no permanent residents). It is next to the town of Miena, which has a few hundred people. People in this area of Tassie experience snow for most of the year, whereas in most other parts of Australia snow is not a part of everyday life (except in the colder months in some areas).

@John I am capable of primary school comprehension. My point is that NP believes she has no value as a candidate given her track record as state leader, whereas history is filled with examples of many leaders having losses before going on to achieve great things, whether in the same arena or in another field altogether. Australia’s greatest PM lost his first two elections as leader, and earlier in his career lost his seat as a backbencher before returning to Canberra.

@NP Is there a rule against posting outside of your own state? Not sure why it’s worth mentioning in any other context. I would be the first to admit I know virtually nothing of Tasmanian politics, but wanted to draw a parallel between your dismissive summary of White’s career and other historic examples. I’d leave the commentary to as to whether she’s a suitable member for Lyons to the people of Lyons.

@Real Talk I’m not criticising you it’s just that usually you comment on Queensland politics. Apologies for the confusion. I’m not from Tasmania either, I too am from Queensland.

As for her value as a candidate, I’m not suggesting she isn’t capable of being a good local member I just think she should probably pass the baton. However, regardless of who wins here, since both major parties have female candidates, three of the five Tasmanian House MPs in the next Parliament will be female, assuming that the Liberals retain Bass and Braddon, Labor retains Franklin and Andrew Wilkie retains Clark (which is basically certain, this is the only Tasmanian seat in play this time around).

Interested in seeing how this plays out to be honest. I take the point that she’s now lost three elections running but she is also comfortably the most popular Labor politician by a wide margin. She typically wins upwards of two thirds of Labor’s vote in Lyons at state election, and whilst part of that might be due to her being leader it can’t be discounted. I also get the idea that Mitchell isn’t the best local member either.

I wouldn’t make a call either way on this one yet but I think White is about the safest option you could go with in an election Labor are tipped to lose ground in.

Also regarding “passing the baton” – given the following:

– Haven’t been in state government for a decade
– White was leader for 3 straight elections
– 67-year old, 13-year incumbent Senator Anne Urquhart was just announced as the candidate for the “target seat” of Braddon
– Average TAS Labor Senator has been incumbent for 16.75 years, lower house it’s just the two but they’ve been in for 17 and 8 years respectively
– Average TAS Labor state MP has been around for 6.5 years, admittedly much lower than the Senate (which is long overdue for a clearout) but that’s still two straight election defeats

I’d say the problem isn’t so much that it’s time the pass the baton, but more that there just isn’t anyone to pass the baton to (or if there is, they aren’t getting it).

@Oguh Braddon isn’t a target seat and neither is Bass while Bridget Archer is around.

Labor needs a refurbishment in Tassie, as you said they’ve been opposition since 2014 and haven’t gained much ground back. In fact Labor in general needs to change in specific parts of the country.

From late March 2023 until late August 2024, Labor provided not just the Prime Minister but every Premier except that of Tasmania. Then the Territory and later Queensland actually changed that in their respective jurisdictions too.

If the blue collar unions go through with their threat to pull money from the ALP and fund their own candidates, could someone like David O’Byrne have a run at this seat as well? This, and Bass and Braddon, seem to an outsider to be an ideal fit for the type of seat they need to target.

@MLV Bass will be Liberal as long as Bridget Archer remains the Liberal candidate, while Braddon is a fairly safe Liberal seat with no real risk of falling. The only Tasmanian seat in play is Lyons. To win Franklin the Liberals need to be moderate like they are on the state level and Clark won’t ever leave Andrew Wilkie’s hands.

White is still young and has already “passed the baton” in state leadership. It’s strange to speak as if she must retire from politics altogether and can’t continue in a new role focusing on her electorate. From all accounts she is a popular member who won over 2/3rds of the Labor primary vote the last couple of elections. Approval ratings of her as leader consistently had her comparable to Hodgman and Rockliff (Gutwein, of course, having sky-high ratings post-Covid) and opposition leaders are known to be naturally disadvantaged in such polling, so there’s nothing to suggest that her losses had to do with lack of popularity.

From a Labor perspective, she has the best resume for any candidate to defend this marginal given her known profile and continued local popularity and that Mitchell has been left damaged by controversy. Any other replacement would lose the incumbency advantage and be a total unknown when exposed to the campaign trail.

Braddon is a long shot – would make sense that Urquhart is retiring and Labor is testing whether a relatively high profile candidate could shake up the seat on her way out or if it’s one Labor can just write off at future elections.

On the other hand I think Labor fully expects to win Lyons, with Rebecca White unlikely to be a humble backbencher.

@NP northern tasmania poarticuarly Braddon is becoming more conservative leaning and Franklin and Clark will never be won by the Libs lyons will likely fall Labor have switched candidates in the hope they can retain the seat but it wont help them even with Rebecca Whites profile

@raue when can we expect an updated version of the federal electorates now the redistribution is complete?

Rebecca White has a history of losing elections, however she does have a large personal vote so there is an outside chance she could win. This is must win seat for the Liberals so I’m expecting this to be heavily targeted along with them sandbagging the neighbouring electorates of Bass and Braddon.

@NP, not saying I am right, but my point was that I see this seat (and Bass and Braddon) as a mirror image of the Teal seats. Trending away from the ALP, but really still with a lot of old fashioned Labor values, so an independent funded by blue collar unions may well be just what this electorate wants.

Labor will not win any seats in my opinion. with the exception of Leichardt whihc is a wildcard. Menzies and Deakin are probably an longshot and maybe Sturt in SA. Labor will not hold Lyons unless Susie Bower gets done for running over a nun or something.

@NP Just FYI the PM stated Braddon was a target seat at his presser yesterday, hence me putting it in quotes as it’s obviously a tough ask to win. Definitely agree about Bass and I think it’s quite telling they didn’t announce their Bass candidate along with the other two yesterday.

@Oguh yeah Albo needs to realise that sometimes a margin and history doesn’t mean shit. As Nimalan pointed out every seat that fell in 2022 was either affluent, CALD and/or in Perth, with the sole exception of Robertson. Robertson is the only true bellwether these days.

In 2016, Antony Green wrote an article about federal bellwether seats in his guide for that year’s federal election: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2016/guide/bellwethers

Let’s analyse the seats he lists as being bellwethers:

* Dobell: Central Coast seat, won by Labor in 2016, 2019 and 2022, includes swing suburbs like The Entrance and more working-class suburbs like Tuggerah and Wyong which have been prone to swing but usually vote Labor
* Eden-Monaro: South Coast seat that includes Queanbeyan which is a Labor-leaning swing city because it’s near Canberra (though it has been won by the Nationals on the state level), won by Labor in 2016, held ever since then, though the Liberals were very close to winning it until 2022 (the Labor MP, Kristy McBain, has a personal vote)
* Forde: Logan seat that sprawls into the far northern Gold Coast, mostly working-class but has some housing estates, won by the LNP in 2016, 2019 and 2022
* Herbert: Townsville seat, not really a bellwether as it has only voted Labor once since the beginning of the Howard years (Labor extremely narrowly won it in 2016 because of a fluke aka preference leakage from the UAP)
* Leichhardt: Far North Queensland seat that includes Cairns, remote rural towns and remote Indigenous communities in Cape York and the Torres Strait Islands, held by popular and moderate LNP member Warren Entsch for ages but he’s retiring at the next election
* Lindsay: Western Sydney seat, won by Labor in 2016, regained by the Liberals in 2019 and retained in 2022 (if the NSW state election was held on the same day the Liberals would’ve held onto the seat of Penrith as they barely lost it in 2023)
* Macarthur: won by Labor in 2016, 2019 and 2022, though was more Liberal-friendly on the old boundaries as now it’s based around Campbelltown which is very working-class, low socio-economic and heavily Labor-voting suburb and area
* Makin: Adelaide seat, won by Labor in 2016 and Labor have held it ever since then, but with the exception of Turnbull the federal Liberals haven’t been moderate (Scomo was in the middle of moderate and socially conservative/right-wing, but leaning more to the conservative side, while Dutton is socially conservative/right-wing) whereas the state Liberals were until they lost in 2022, to win over Melbourne and Adelaide voters the Liberals need a moderate leader and moderate candidates (I met a young woman who I would love to see as the candidate for Boothby or Sturt and I think she’d win, but I won’t say her name as she won’t be even thinking about running anytime soon and while from Adelaide currently doesn’t live there, plus I want to respect her privacy plus I don’t know if she’d be interested or not, she’s not a party member or anything)
* Page: Northern Rivers seat, as someone who grew up on the Mid North Coast (the region below the Northern Rivers, notably the Mid North Coast is more conservative than the Northern Rivers) this one I can 100% say isn’t a bellwehter anymore, yes Labor has won it before but Grafton is too conservative for Labor to win even with Lismore and all the hippie towns (most of which are in Richmond now anyways) and Lismore isn’t the country-hippie town mix (Nationals/Greens) it used to be, Janelle Saffin is just popular on the state level
* Petrie: Moreton Bay seat, won by the LNP in 2016, 2019 and 2022, I would say that despite being a Morrison/Dutton ally he is popular because he is so active in the community especially around Redcliffe
* Robertson: Central Coast seat that takes in Gosford (a swing suburb), Terrigal (a blue-ribbon, affluent suburb, I like to call it the “Northern Northern Beaches”) and Woy Woy (a working-class, low socio-economic suburb with the city’s highest crime rate, locally nicknamed “Mount Druitt by the Sea”), classic bellwether in a classic bellwether city/region, won by the Liberals in 2016 and 2019 and by Labor in 2022

Note that all of those seats were Coalition seats in 2013, when the Coalition won in a landslide.

My assessment of those seats:

* Dobell, NSW: Labor hold
* Eden-Monaro, NSW: Labor hold, but should see a swing back to the Liberals as a correction from the big swing last time
* Forde, QLD: LNP hold (even now LNP-held on state results where most of the “Kevin ’07” seats, i.e seats Kevin Rudd’s Labor won in 2007 but Julia Gillard’s Labor lost in 2010 but even Rudd couldn’t gain them back in 2013, are still Labor-held on the state level even in 2024)
* Herbert, QLD: LNP hold
* Leichhardt, QLD: LNP hold is the most likely outcome, again still LNP even on the state level where there is no Warren Entsch
* Lindsay, NSW: Liberal hold
* Macarthur, NSW: Labor hold (the Liberals would only win this in a really good year on current boundaries)
* Makin: Labor hold
* Page: Nationals hold
* Petrie: LNP hold
* Robertson: Labor hold is the most likely outcome given Labor are tipped to form a minority government but if the Coalition gets a majority then Liberal gain, so this one depends on the outcome of the entire election

@Nether Portal actually Makin was won by Labor in 2007 during Kevin 07 and withstood the 2013 landslide with a pretty decent margin, which meant that the seat broke its bellwether status for the first time in its history. A lot of it can be attributed to Labor’s general popularity in SA and the member who is Tony Zappia (who I’ve met before and I can see why he was able to hold the seat). Definitely a Labor hold unless if we have a landslide the scale of 1996 coming (which was when Labor lost the seat).

As for the others, I’d have to generally agree with maybe the exception of Leichhardt. Even with Warren Entsch’s personal vote their margin has never really creeped up to more than 55% generally speaking. Labor’s targeting it heavily and I reckon it’s the only seat in regional Queensland that they stand a chance at picking up, so I’d say it’s a toss up compared to the other seats like Herbert, Capricornia and Flynn etc.

I think NP is on the money. Cairns may still be reasonably friendly for Labor but the rest of Leichhardt has been following the general anti-Labor trend in regional QLD. It’s not impossible but it’s pretty unlikely outside of a good year for Labor in QLD.

@Tommo9 agree about Makin. Unlike the state Liberals the federal Liberals haven’t done too much campaigning in Adelaide and thus haven’t won a majority there for a while. Tony Zappia’s personal vote definitely helps too.

@Adda I agree, and even then it’s only the inner-city of Cairns that votes Labor. The Northern Suburbs are beachside and affluent so they vote LNP hence why the LNP won Barron River but fell short in Cairns.

Makin is not the same seat that the Libs held during the Howard years. It has moved anti clockwise across northern Adelaide and is mostly territory that was once Port Adelaide and Bonython – both safe Labor seats.

Np*
Leichhardt… line ball alp favoured
Macarthur… with very little Camden in it.. a fairly safe alp seat
Herbert had 10% + margin for libs unlikely change

Redistributed – actually looking at maps pre-2003 (when Bonython was abolished) vs the current maps, there is not really much change to Makin. Most of its original area still remains, with the only major additions being Parafield Gardens, Mawson Lakes and Dry Creek.

You may be correct that politically, the newly added suburbs are very different to the established ones in that they are strongly Labor leaning vs swing type ones. I think this might be the case because the suburbs close to the Adelaide Hills are in the state seat of Wright (which is traditionally marginal) vs the districts of Playford and Ramsay which are safe Labor.

@NP – here are my predictions for the bellwethers:

– Dobell – Labor retain. Emma McBride is a popular MP, she’s also an assistant minister. Even with early candidate selection the Liberals I think will just fall short.
– Eden-Monaro – the margin is thick but a lot of it is Kristy McBain’s personal vote. The redistribution will help the Liberals along with a strong candidate (Jo van der Plaat) as well as a recover swing. I predict a knife-edge Liberal gain.
– Forde – LNP retain. Demographic changes are occurring with a lot of population growth but van Manen seems to be well-resources (two relatively-new billboards) plus the LNP definitely having an advantage here.
– Herbert – LNP retain. Labor has no hope until Thompson retires.
– Leichhardt – LNP retain. Yes Labor has a high-profile candidate (Matt Smith) but the LNP also have a candidate, plus the LNP had a great performance in Cairns/Cape York, 3/4 seats held.
– Lindsay – Melissa McIntosh is very popular and won’t be beaten anytime soon. She’s entrenched herself deep in an electorate known for swinging violently. She will be safe.
– Macarthur – Labor retain. This is my home electorate and even as a Liberal supporter Mike Freelander is excellent as an MP, very active and approachable in the community and overall has built up a big personal vote. And the redistribution frays any Liberal hopes here.
– Makin – Labor retain. Tony Zappia’s personal vote is strong and the margin is definitely inflated to an extent. The eastern half and some new housing estates are trending Liberal but his work in the electorate is shown in the results. If he retires it will be interesting but the state Liberals are hopeless so Labor retain at the end of the day. But the swing in some places could be savage.
– Page – National retain. Demographic changes have definitely flipped some areas (especially Lismore) to Greens/Labor, but he’s built up a strong voter shift in Grafton and Casino towards him. He’s also a big part of shadow cabinet so it would be an absolute scalp for him to lose.
– Petrie – LNP retain. Definitely very close but Luke Howarth is quite popular here and the electorate being a mix of mortgage belt (North Lakes, Mango Hill) and affluent retirees (Redcliffe, Scarborough), two LNP-trending and bedrock demographics.
– Robertson – a mix of affluent Terrigal, low-income Woy Woy, and a swing area in Gosford. But Labor’s inroads in Terrigal and Gosford, equates to a likely Labor retain but anything can happen.

For the 2027 NSW state election I think Terrigal with swing back to the Liberals. Adam Crouch has been very active in the community and this is an area the Liberals usually do well in (Terrigal/Erina).

Terrigal is a reliable not safe liberal seat. The margin varies from down the wire*(last election) to about a 10% margin

Page
In the absence of a very good alp candidate the sitting nat mp will hold

Eden Monaro
Areas round Tumut Tumbarumba Yass shifted into Riverina which Labor cannot win. As there is no serious campaign there they will resume voting for the nats
Goulburn is the reverse Labor will improve their vote there too as shifted from Hume

@Mick Quinlivan a 10% margin is safe.

Not sure why we’re talking about historic bellwethers in the Lyons thread, especially where Lyons clearly isn’t one of them (being Liberal held through the Hawke years, and Labor held throughout the Howard years).

It guess it would make sense as a bellwether caught between right moving Northern Tasmania and left moving Southern Tasmania, but the real pattern is that they’re loyal to local members.

White is higher profile than Bower and usually does well here (even before she became leader). I think Labor have the edge but it will be a seat to watch.

@BNJ bellwethers came up because I mentioned that only one classic bellwether changed hands in 2022 and that the two Tasmanian bellwethers aren’t bellwethers anymore.

here are my predictions for the bellwethers:

– Dobell – 3% swing to Liberals Labor retain
– Eden-Monaro – with the redistribution shaving 2% off the labor vote id say very marginal seat after the election <2% either way. probly labor retain but easily gettable in 2028 for the coalition
– Forde – LNP retain. labor no hope here until Coaltion in govt.
– Leichhardt – LNP retain. i think theyve calculated Entschs personal vote will still give them room to hold especially given they are in opposition.
– Lindsay – easy iberal retain on increased margin
– Macarthur – Labor retain.
– Makin – Labor retain.
– Page – National retain.
– Petrie – LNP retain.
– Robertson – either Liberal gain or very marginal Labor retain. gonna say Liberal gain based on te fact its only a small margin

I would add Solomon to the list and is a key swing seat despite its short history. Braddon is interesting as Labor never won it during the Hawke/Keating years which was there pinnacle but held it for most of the Howard years and if not for Latham Forestry policy would have held it in 2004

Braddon is becoming a safe conservative seat

Solomon could be interesting despite the high margin due to the recent territory election but i think it might be a bridge too far but would cretainly be marginal

Braddon (then known as Darwin) was a safe Conservative seat during the first half of the 20th century but then it was held by Labor for a large part of the Menzies and post Menzies era until the defeat of the Whitlam government.

Some have said Bennelong is becoming a bellwether. Chisholm is another bellwether; although it didn’t fall to the Liberals in 2013, it in 2016 and the Liberals held onto it in 2019 before Labor regained it in 2022. Both of those seats have large Chinese communities (Bennelong also has large Indian and Korean communities).

Lyons could be a bellwether in the future as it is an urban-rural mixed seat, as could Blair potentially for the same reason.

@ NP
Bennelong and Chisholm are subject to boundaries in normal cases if they extend to elite suburbs they become unwinnable for Labor. I would say Deakin should be a bellwether because it is a very middle Australia seat the boundaries made it better for Libs in 2022 which is why they narrowly held on to it eventhough Labor actually over performed the 2007 result when adjusting to current boundaries.

Also, Tassie is known to have the weirdest politics in Australia.

There have been times where all five seats are Liberal and times where all five seats are Labor. There have been times where the Liberals do better in Bass and/or Clark and Franklin and times where they’ve done better in Braddon and Lyons.

Braddon is obviously the most conservative seat in Tasmania, followed by Bass or Lyons. While Bass is a Liberal seat, Lyons had the second-highest No vote to the Voice (Braddon had the highest). It’s no surprise that Clark is the most progressive seat in Tasmania, indeed, it’s the only seat where Labor have ever won the most votes on the state level in in the past 10 years (the Liberals got the most votes in their 2014 and 2021 landslides but in the closer elections in 2018 and 2024 it was Labor who got the most votes). In Franklin the Liberals get the most votes on the state level but if there was CPV it would vote Labor except in Liberal landslides (as we all know the Tasmanian Liberals are quite moderate).

@Nimalan I agree, but I think Bennelong is more at risk of that since North Sydney has been abolished and it is more conservative in general (Ryde is a Liberal seat while Box Hill is a Labor seat). The NSW Liberals have also built up a base in Chinese voters and while the Victorian Liberals sorta have they haven’t been as successful in key seats.

@ NP
That what i mean the abolition of North Sydney makes a big difference under the old boundaries it is more like Chisholm. Chisholm also moved to take more Elite suburbs like Glen Iris. Ryde is like some suburbs in Chisholm such as Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Burwood. Box Hill is better for Labor because it is high density is some parts although the rest of the seat is more Liberal friendly.

Also @ Nether Portal
I do agree Tasmania politics is weird and seems to go in Cycles so while Braddon is a safe Conservative seat for now it would not surprise me if Labor wins it say in 2042 and holds it for a decade. Labor waited 23 years to win Braddon back in 1998