Lyons – Australia 2025

Today it was confirmed Brian Mitchell is retiring and Rebecca White will contest Lyons for Labor.

congratulations to Susie Bower on her election to the seat of Lyons

@James my question is why she would bother. She is most likely going to lose. On state results Bass, Braddon and Lyons would be Liberal seats while Clark and Franklin would be Labor seats. The Tasmanian Liberals are obviously more moderate than their federal counterparts but even then I still think the Liberals will gain this, they just may not do as well in the Hobart booths which is what’s dragging them down in this seat.

But more importantly, Rebecca White lost three consecutive elections as Opposition Leader. She was Labor leader, then she was dumped, then she came back shortly after. I get that she was a state member for Lyons for so long but I think that she needs to just call it quits and retire. Same goes for Kristina Keneally, she never should’ve been a Senator after she led NSW Labor to what was at the time the worst ever defeat of a sitting government in Australian history in 2011.

Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but since this electorate has heaps of mountains and Tasmania is quite cold (the climate of Tassie is somewhat similar to that of southern England and while the winters are colder in New York than those in Hobart and even those in London, the summers in London and Hobart are actually colder than those in New York), but could this be the coldest electorate in Australia or would Franklin be colder? Franklin is further south but has less mountains (both of the state’s ski resorts are in the seat of Lyons).

Frank Nicklin lost five elections in a row as leader of the Queensland Country Party before becoming a relatively successful premier. By your metric, NP, he should have packed it in after 1950.

The coldest place in Australia is a place called Liawenee which is situated in the division of Lyons

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liawenee#:~:text=Liawenee%20is%20the%20coldest%20permanently,stationed%20permanently%20in%20the%20town.

@real talk shes not running as leader shes just the candidate for lyons now.

@Real Talk (I believe this is your first comment on a non-Queensland-related post), that’s one exceptional case. Personally I even think Lawrence Springborg should’ve passed the baton that is the leadership on to someone else. If a leader leads a party to two or three defeats in a row they should retire.

@John correct, Liawenee (a very small village in the Central Highlands) is the coldest permanently inhabited place in Australia (Antarctica and the islands in the Southern Ocean e.g Macquarie Island (which is part of Franklin) have no permanent residents). It is next to the town of Miena, which has a few hundred people. People in this area of Tassie experience snow for most of the year, whereas in most other parts of Australia snow is not a part of everyday life (except in the colder months in some areas).

@John I am capable of primary school comprehension. My point is that NP believes she has no value as a candidate given her track record as state leader, whereas history is filled with examples of many leaders having losses before going on to achieve great things, whether in the same arena or in another field altogether. Australia’s greatest PM lost his first two elections as leader, and earlier in his career lost his seat as a backbencher before returning to Canberra.

@NP Is there a rule against posting outside of your own state? Not sure why it’s worth mentioning in any other context. I would be the first to admit I know virtually nothing of Tasmanian politics, but wanted to draw a parallel between your dismissive summary of White’s career and other historic examples. I’d leave the commentary to as to whether she’s a suitable member for Lyons to the people of Lyons.

@Real Talk I’m not criticising you it’s just that usually you comment on Queensland politics. Apologies for the confusion. I’m not from Tasmania either, I too am from Queensland.

As for her value as a candidate, I’m not suggesting she isn’t capable of being a good local member I just think she should probably pass the baton. However, regardless of who wins here, since both major parties have female candidates, three of the five Tasmanian House MPs in the next Parliament will be female, assuming that the Liberals retain Bass and Braddon, Labor retains Franklin and Andrew Wilkie retains Clark (which is basically certain, this is the only Tasmanian seat in play this time around).

Interested in seeing how this plays out to be honest. I take the point that she’s now lost three elections running but she is also comfortably the most popular Labor politician by a wide margin. She typically wins upwards of two thirds of Labor’s vote in Lyons at state election, and whilst part of that might be due to her being leader it can’t be discounted. I also get the idea that Mitchell isn’t the best local member either.

I wouldn’t make a call either way on this one yet but I think White is about the safest option you could go with in an election Labor are tipped to lose ground in.

Also regarding “passing the baton” – given the following:

– Haven’t been in state government for a decade
– White was leader for 3 straight elections
– 67-year old, 13-year incumbent Senator Anne Urquhart was just announced as the candidate for the “target seat” of Braddon
– Average TAS Labor Senator has been incumbent for 16.75 years, lower house it’s just the two but they’ve been in for 17 and 8 years respectively
– Average TAS Labor state MP has been around for 6.5 years, admittedly much lower than the Senate (which is long overdue for a clearout) but that’s still two straight election defeats

I’d say the problem isn’t so much that it’s time the pass the baton, but more that there just isn’t anyone to pass the baton to (or if there is, they aren’t getting it).

@Oguh Braddon isn’t a target seat and neither is Bass while Bridget Archer is around.

Labor needs a refurbishment in Tassie, as you said they’ve been opposition since 2014 and haven’t gained much ground back. In fact Labor in general needs to change in specific parts of the country.

From late March 2023 until late August 2024, Labor provided not just the Prime Minister but every Premier except that of Tasmania. Then the Territory and later Queensland actually changed that in their respective jurisdictions too.

If the blue collar unions go through with their threat to pull money from the ALP and fund their own candidates, could someone like David O’Byrne have a run at this seat as well? This, and Bass and Braddon, seem to an outsider to be an ideal fit for the type of seat they need to target.

@MLV Bass will be Liberal as long as Bridget Archer remains the Liberal candidate, while Braddon is a fairly safe Liberal seat with no real risk of falling. The only Tasmanian seat in play is Lyons. To win Franklin the Liberals need to be moderate like they are on the state level and Clark won’t ever leave Andrew Wilkie’s hands.

White is still young and has already “passed the baton” in state leadership. It’s strange to speak as if she must retire from politics altogether and can’t continue in a new role focusing on her electorate. From all accounts she is a popular member who won over 2/3rds of the Labor primary vote the last couple of elections. Approval ratings of her as leader consistently had her comparable to Hodgman and Rockliff (Gutwein, of course, having sky-high ratings post-Covid) and opposition leaders are known to be naturally disadvantaged in such polling, so there’s nothing to suggest that her losses had to do with lack of popularity.

From a Labor perspective, she has the best resume for any candidate to defend this marginal given her known profile and continued local popularity and that Mitchell has been left damaged by controversy. Any other replacement would lose the incumbency advantage and be a total unknown when exposed to the campaign trail.

Braddon is a long shot – would make sense that Urquhart is retiring and Labor is testing whether a relatively high profile candidate could shake up the seat on her way out or if it’s one Labor can just write off at future elections.

On the other hand I think Labor fully expects to win Lyons, with Rebecca White unlikely to be a humble backbencher.

@NP northern tasmania poarticuarly Braddon is becoming more conservative leaning and Franklin and Clark will never be won by the Libs lyons will likely fall Labor have switched candidates in the hope they can retain the seat but it wont help them even with Rebecca Whites profile

@raue when can we expect an updated version of the federal electorates now the redistribution is complete?

Rebecca White has a history of losing elections, however she does have a large personal vote so there is an outside chance she could win. This is must win seat for the Liberals so I’m expecting this to be heavily targeted along with them sandbagging the neighbouring electorates of Bass and Braddon.

@NP, not saying I am right, but my point was that I see this seat (and Bass and Braddon) as a mirror image of the Teal seats. Trending away from the ALP, but really still with a lot of old fashioned Labor values, so an independent funded by blue collar unions may well be just what this electorate wants.

Labor will not win any seats in my opinion. with the exception of Leichardt whihc is a wildcard. Menzies and Deakin are probably an longshot and maybe Sturt in SA. Labor will not hold Lyons unless Susie Bower gets done for running over a nun or something.

@NP Just FYI the PM stated Braddon was a target seat at his presser yesterday, hence me putting it in quotes as it’s obviously a tough ask to win. Definitely agree about Bass and I think it’s quite telling they didn’t announce their Bass candidate along with the other two yesterday.

@Oguh yeah Albo needs to realise that sometimes a margin and history doesn’t mean shit. As Nimalan pointed out every seat that fell in 2022 was either affluent, CALD and/or in Perth, with the sole exception of Robertson. Robertson is the only true bellwether these days.

In 2016, Antony Green wrote an article about federal bellwether seats in his guide for that year’s federal election: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2016/guide/bellwethers

Let’s analyse the seats he lists as being bellwethers:

* Dobell: Central Coast seat, won by Labor in 2016, 2019 and 2022, includes swing suburbs like The Entrance and more working-class suburbs like Tuggerah and Wyong which have been prone to swing but usually vote Labor
* Eden-Monaro: South Coast seat that includes Queanbeyan which is a Labor-leaning swing city because it’s near Canberra (though it has been won by the Nationals on the state level), won by Labor in 2016, held ever since then, though the Liberals were very close to winning it until 2022 (the Labor MP, Kristy McBain, has a personal vote)
* Forde: Logan seat that sprawls into the far northern Gold Coast, mostly working-class but has some housing estates, won by the LNP in 2016, 2019 and 2022
* Herbert: Townsville seat, not really a bellwether as it has only voted Labor once since the beginning of the Howard years (Labor extremely narrowly won it in 2016 because of a fluke aka preference leakage from the UAP)
* Leichhardt: Far North Queensland seat that includes Cairns, remote rural towns and remote Indigenous communities in Cape York and the Torres Strait Islands, held by popular and moderate LNP member Warren Entsch for ages but he’s retiring at the next election
* Lindsay: Western Sydney seat, won by Labor in 2016, regained by the Liberals in 2019 and retained in 2022 (if the NSW state election was held on the same day the Liberals would’ve held onto the seat of Penrith as they barely lost it in 2023)
* Macarthur: won by Labor in 2016, 2019 and 2022, though was more Liberal-friendly on the old boundaries as now it’s based around Campbelltown which is very working-class, low socio-economic and heavily Labor-voting suburb and area
* Makin: Adelaide seat, won by Labor in 2016 and Labor have held it ever since then, but with the exception of Turnbull the federal Liberals haven’t been moderate (Scomo was in the middle of moderate and socially conservative/right-wing, but leaning more to the conservative side, while Dutton is socially conservative/right-wing) whereas the state Liberals were until they lost in 2022, to win over Melbourne and Adelaide voters the Liberals need a moderate leader and moderate candidates (I met a young woman who I would love to see as the candidate for Boothby or Sturt and I think she’d win, but I won’t say her name as she won’t be even thinking about running anytime soon and while from Adelaide currently doesn’t live there, plus I want to respect her privacy plus I don’t know if she’d be interested or not, she’s not a party member or anything)
* Page: Northern Rivers seat, as someone who grew up on the Mid North Coast (the region below the Northern Rivers, notably the Mid North Coast is more conservative than the Northern Rivers) this one I can 100% say isn’t a bellwehter anymore, yes Labor has won it before but Grafton is too conservative for Labor to win even with Lismore and all the hippie towns (most of which are in Richmond now anyways) and Lismore isn’t the country-hippie town mix (Nationals/Greens) it used to be, Janelle Saffin is just popular on the state level
* Petrie: Moreton Bay seat, won by the LNP in 2016, 2019 and 2022, I would say that despite being a Morrison/Dutton ally he is popular because he is so active in the community especially around Redcliffe
* Robertson: Central Coast seat that takes in Gosford (a swing suburb), Terrigal (a blue-ribbon, affluent suburb, I like to call it the “Northern Northern Beaches”) and Woy Woy (a working-class, low socio-economic suburb with the city’s highest crime rate, locally nicknamed “Mount Druitt by the Sea”), classic bellwether in a classic bellwether city/region, won by the Liberals in 2016 and 2019 and by Labor in 2022

Note that all of those seats were Coalition seats in 2013, when the Coalition won in a landslide.

My assessment of those seats:

* Dobell, NSW: Labor hold
* Eden-Monaro, NSW: Labor hold, but should see a swing back to the Liberals as a correction from the big swing last time
* Forde, QLD: LNP hold (even now LNP-held on state results where most of the “Kevin ’07” seats, i.e seats Kevin Rudd’s Labor won in 2007 but Julia Gillard’s Labor lost in 2010 but even Rudd couldn’t gain them back in 2013, are still Labor-held on the state level even in 2024)
* Herbert, QLD: LNP hold
* Leichhardt, QLD: LNP hold is the most likely outcome, again still LNP even on the state level where there is no Warren Entsch
* Lindsay, NSW: Liberal hold
* Macarthur, NSW: Labor hold (the Liberals would only win this in a really good year on current boundaries)
* Makin: Labor hold
* Page: Nationals hold
* Petrie: LNP hold
* Robertson: Labor hold is the most likely outcome given Labor are tipped to form a minority government but if the Coalition gets a majority then Liberal gain, so this one depends on the outcome of the entire election

@Nether Portal actually Makin was won by Labor in 2007 during Kevin 07 and withstood the 2013 landslide with a pretty decent margin, which meant that the seat broke its bellwether status for the first time in its history. A lot of it can be attributed to Labor’s general popularity in SA and the member who is Tony Zappia (who I’ve met before and I can see why he was able to hold the seat). Definitely a Labor hold unless if we have a landslide the scale of 1996 coming (which was when Labor lost the seat).

As for the others, I’d have to generally agree with maybe the exception of Leichhardt. Even with Warren Entsch’s personal vote their margin has never really creeped up to more than 55% generally speaking. Labor’s targeting it heavily and I reckon it’s the only seat in regional Queensland that they stand a chance at picking up, so I’d say it’s a toss up compared to the other seats like Herbert, Capricornia and Flynn etc.

I think NP is on the money. Cairns may still be reasonably friendly for Labor but the rest of Leichhardt has been following the general anti-Labor trend in regional QLD. It’s not impossible but it’s pretty unlikely outside of a good year for Labor in QLD.

@Tommo9 agree about Makin. Unlike the state Liberals the federal Liberals haven’t done too much campaigning in Adelaide and thus haven’t won a majority there for a while. Tony Zappia’s personal vote definitely helps too.

@Adda I agree, and even then it’s only the inner-city of Cairns that votes Labor. The Northern Suburbs are beachside and affluent so they vote LNP hence why the LNP won Barron River but fell short in Cairns.