Lyons – Australia 2025

I just asked ChatGPT this question and because its knowledge base is only updated to January 2022, I had to explain and give an in-depth analysis of the election nationally and in each state and territory, as well as listing some key issues, explaining the redistributions and likely scenarios with that, and identifying a few key seats, as well as explaining the rundown of the referendum and the results of that nationally and in each state and territory. This took about two hours, mostly me typing big paragraphs and fixing mistakes and typos I made in those paragraphs.

After all that, it still kinda messed it up and it admitted it couldn’t really predict elections well. It said that the two seats that would likely change hands are Blair in Queensland due to the referendum and Paterson in NSW due to redistribution, both of which are Labor seats that would flip to be Coalition seats.

But of course I’m a human and I predict that there will be more than two seats that change hands.

@nether portal agreed an AI cant predict what goes on inside the average persons head. I can see the coalition gaining seats but unless everything goes right for them they will be in the mid to high 60s maybe low 70s but i cant see the 76 seats if they gain all the ones that are inplay and lose none they could get to 77 but i doubt that will happen. really they only need to get 74 and they will be in govt as Katter and Sharkie would support them at this stage.

ChatGPT has become part of my daily life, but it is absolutely hopeless on psephology.

I once engaged it on American presidential politics (which of course should have much greater prominence than Australian politics), and it claimed that Obama carried West Virginia in 2008, that Kerry won the popular vote in 2004, and that the 2000 election was the first time the winner of the electoral college winner was not the winner of the popular vote. All of these are false.

That Blair might change hands “due to the referendum” shows that ChatGPT is just grasping at whatever it can cobble together in the information you provided to come up with some sort of a coherent answer.

Any thoughts on Gilmore or Eden-Monaro?

One seat I’ll be watching in particular is Lingiari. It seems like Indigenous communities are shifting to the right, allowing the CLP to win more remote seats than ever before in 2020 and allowing them to almost win Lingiari in 2022. Plus, the NT might swing to the Coalition given that the Territory Labor government, although backed to be re-elected by betting odds, is on track to lose according to the first opinion poll of the Territory election campaign.

In fact, if Lingiari was a Senate seat, then Jacinta Price would’ve won it for the CLP in 2022 (according to Senate results in Lingiari), while Malarndirri McCarthy would’ve won Solomon for Labor (according to Senate results in Solomon).

Also, what the hell is all this talk from Labor about the Indigenous communities in Lingiari voting overwhelmingly Yes in the referendum? Not only was turnout quite low, but from what I can see on the AEC website looking at result in Lingiari, it looks like the remote booths voted No.

Gilmore is more down to local personalities than the national mood. It is important to remember that Gilmore had a swing to Labor in 2013 when popular MP Joanna Gash retired. Andrew Constance helped the Libs get a swing to them, against the trend in 2022 but if the seat moves North where Constance is not well known then Labor benefits. Eden-monaro has started to lean Labor in the last decade to the point where it is now questionable whether it remains a bellwether. The Libs barely won it in 2013 even though that was one of their best ever results in NSW.

@Nimalan usually the state Coalition does well on the South Coast (for most or all of the 12-year/three-term Coalition government of Barry O’Farrell, Mike Baird, Gladys Berejiklian and Dominic Perrottet, the Liberals held Bega and South Coast while the Nationals held Monaro).

@nimalan i think eden-moaro will return to bellwhether i think the 2013 result is attributed to mike kellys personal vote hence why it went against the bellwhether in 2019 and 2016

@ John, I do agree Mike Kelly’s personal vote helped in 2013. I dont know tbh if Kristy McBain has built a personal vote but the 2022 result was very good much higher than Labor has received in the past and now a safe seat for the first time ever.

@ NP, i do agree that the State Coalition usually does well in the area. However, they have had the benefit of strong incumbents in all 3 seats. I personally feel Bega/South Coast will be key swing seats going forward and now that Bathurst and Drummoyne seemed to have drifted permanently from Labor due to demographic change i feel Labor will put more effort into the area than in the past.

Prior to the Bega by-election, i actually posted that Labor should look at this seat to offset seats that are drifting away from them. My comments on the link below

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/nswby2022/begaby2022#comment-757598

@nimalan well it was a labor victory and i think the anti govt swing played a part and it will probably take in the rest of batemans bay and surrounds from gilmore which is liberal territory so id say its lineball and will be a bellwhether

@ John good point but if it takes the rest of Batemans Bay won’t that make Gilmore stronger for Labor even if it improves the prospects for the Libs in this seat.

@nimalan probably but constance has already committed to run in Gilmore and that could be a wildcard ithink they wo t have any choice but to since Riverina will need to expand into EM and its already under quota

@Nimalan yeah the Bathurst thing seemed miraculous, but makes sense. Conservative rural area in NSW = Nationals seat. It’s now held by the Nationals on a huge margin. Plus I think Drummoyne shows that the Liberals haven’t lost all the ethnic votes, as Drummoyne has large ethnic communities, especially large Chinese, Italian and Korean communities.

@ Nether Portal
One of the reasons for the decline of Labor’s vote in Bathurst is the decline of the coal industry around Lithgow this is similar to what has happened in the La Trobe Valley. The NSW State Libs actually outperformed the Federal Libs in Drummoyne and Ryde both which are have large ethnic communities as you correctly pointed out.

Liberals already have a candidate in EM. Have to wonder what Constance would do if Gilmore moves north.

@mr crown he will probably still run in gilmore given thats hs only real choice.

the one thing i reckon the aec should look into doing is randomised ballots like they do in tasmania that way noone gets the advantage of ballot order

ALBO MET BY ANGRY SALMON FARMERS in hobart today

Day for the salmon industry. The decision will not only effect Tasmania but the whole of australia

@John it will affect not just humans but also cats.

@np still given they supply 90% of aust tuna it will have wider implications beyond Lyons and Tasmania as well as electoral consequences

i think brian mitchell should start writing in memoirs

I thought this would be the first Liberal gain from Labor on the night, but after the state election I’m not so sure. New information:

* Lyons doesn’t clearly look like a right wing seat on state election results. Lib+Lambie+Shooters+Tucker beats Labor+Greens but I wouldn’t put the right of Labor minors neatly in the blue column.
* The Liberals will be leading a 4th term of an increasingly chaotic government (at best).
* Rebecca White has resigned as leader. She may want to switch to Federal and would be a stronger candidate than Mitchell (despite losing 3 state elections)

I think this seat would have been an Abbott-Shorten-Morrison seat if the Liberals didn’t disendorse their candidate in 2019, Mitchell was very lucky again to hang on in 2022, and those kinds of seats are where Dutton may yet still do well. But I can’t easily give this one to the Liberals after the state election.

I think it’s quite a gamble for anyone, even with Rebecca White’s profile, to take over a marginal seat unless there’s a guaranteed upswing and hugely controversial incumbent MP.

I believe JLN and Labor swap preferences with each ranking the other ahead of the Liberals. A state JLN implosion by the next fed election wouldn’t surprise me. Many multi-MP minor parties have imploded in their first term e.g. SFF, UAP, One Nation.

Johnif Mitchell makes way for white they might as well hand over the seat to the libs

Also remember it’s not the hare Clark system at a federal level it’s a single member electorate

@John @Votante the state JLN vote may half like the One Nation vote did in Queensland on the state level. In 2017 they got 12% of the vote but in 2020 they got just 7%, which mean they lost almost half of their vote and had a 5% swing against them in terms of statewide figures (this went up to a negative swing of over 20% in some regional and rural seats). In 2022 the One Nation vote continued to drop in Queensland. I’ll make a separate thread about that though.

Duttons comments will hurt them here, especially if the Liberal candidate endorses the comments and doesn’t distance themself from Dutton

Tasmanian are outraged by it, even the Liberal premier.

The comments probably won’t be enough to lose Braddon but I definitely see a swing to Labor in Tasmania at the next federal election so long Labor reminds voters of Duttons comments and he doesn’t retract them.

I actually agree with Duttons comments, but he shouldn’t have said it at this present time, and I know my opinion is in the minority on this, that is why I suspect backlash against Dutton.

Would have had this as near certain Liberal gain, but now…..

@Daniel T just out of curiosity, what part of Dutton’s comments do you agree with?

if you are comfortable with saying so of course

I think it’s Dutton’s Port Arthur comments

Meh I don’t think this will get any traction what about labors banning of salmon farming

I think Dutton’s comparison of peaceful pro-Palestine protests with the Port Arthur massacre was inappropriate and disrespectful. However, I don’t think the comments will have any significant political consequences in Lyons or northern Tasmania, where there are low levels of educational attainment. Lyons and Braddon have one of the lowest rates of university degree attainment in the country. The vast majority of voters simply aren’t paying attention to politics and thus are not aware of the comment, especially during a cost of living crisis that has hit low income areas like northern Tasmania particularly hard. Labor does not seem to regard this as campaign material either. Even the Labor member for Lyons, which takes in Port Arthur, didn’t post about it on Facebook.

Most importantly, Tasmania is becoming more politically conservative because of an exodus of young working age people and their families. Labor’s primary vote in Tasmania has declined in the last two federal elections. Comments that the vast majority of Tasmanians aren’t aware of and will soon forget even if they are aware of certainly aren’t going to reverse the trend.

Sensing a Liberal gain here, but the Liberal primary will be obviously less than their state-level primary (this will likely be the case in every seat).

Labor were seriously lucky last time winning this seat with above average preference flows from UAP and One Nation. That will almost certainly not happen in at the next election given their now in government and their dire position in the polls.

prediction Liberal gain

Lyons has been very loyal to
Sitting mps esp those like Duthie and Adams who make an especial effort to get around the electorate. Also the longer a mp stays the harder it is to defeat them.

@mick that until recently didnt apply in tasmania libs should have won here in 2019 but they picked a dud candidate. almost won in 2022 and should be a shoein in 2025 if not it will be a given in 2028 after the redistribution

In Bass I suspect Ms Archer stays. Labor will win Franklin. And Wilkie Clark.Braddon seems to have too big a margin to change. This leaves only this seat in play. I would not assume because of state figures and the narrow margin that the libs win here.

@Mick Quinlivan the only seat that was ever in play was Lyons. Bridget Archer will never lose she’s too good and Braddon is moving away from Labor because it’s a regional seat and Labor is focusing more on the cities because of the Greens.

bridget archer is more moderate and she gets preferences from JL braddon is becoming a liberal stronghold and franklin and Clark more left. Lyons has been trending right and really should have been won in 2019 if not for the poor candidate. It bucked the national trend in 2022 so im putting it down as a lib gain in 2025. the redistribution will see it shed that labor territory in the south due to it being massively over quota and clark under quota. though i suspect it will be apart of a trade involving franklin due to the nature of hthe shape of the divisions. clark will likely gain from franklin and then it will gain lyons surplus. this will only help the lib vote into the future

Former Tassie Labor Leader Rebecca White has been preselected for Lyons, her personal vote could hold the seat.

Do Tasmanian Labor want to be annihilated in Lyons? They weren’t really in box position to win it anyway but now they’re losing the incumbency vote of Brian Mitchell they’ll probably lose it big unless the Liberal candidate does something unforgiveable.

Why oh why Labor doesn’t know how to preselect in their key seats properly is beyond me.

@Caleb – it’s merely likely at this point she will be preselected, but I can’t find any confirmation.

Here’s the ABC News article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-29/labor-mp-brian-mitchell-to-make-way-rebecca-white-lyons/104532060

@Tommo9 – I did think the Liberals could’ve won Lyons in 2019 (mainly off the back of a healthy Liberal swing across Tasmania. Then their candidate fell victim to a textbook disendorsement: bad social media posts.

@Tommo9 White’s both a former state leader and a several-term veteran of this electorate. She won’t be losing the incumbency vote. Mitchell also has had his controversies which almost resulted in a loss to Susie Bower last Fed election.

Don’t know how far the discussions have gone but I have doubts she would be the best candidate for labor

she the KK of tasmania. shes been rejected twice and will lose this seat. Labor were never gonna hold this seat. there is grwong disquiet over federal labors spefically tanya pliberseks decision to delay a ruling that effects salmon fishing in tasmania in regards to the skate fish until after the election both on the side of the fishers and the enviromentalists due to the fact they dont want to effect the outcome of tasmanian seats

Rebecca White would lose this.

The Murgeoun Skate is not found in Lyons it is found either Bathurst Harbour or Macquarie Harbour which are in Braddon and Franklin neither seats are in play in 2025. So Salmon Farming restrictions in those two places are not applicable to Lyons. Neither is climate policy where Tasmania has already reached Net Zero and achieved 100% Renewable electricty

True while not directly there would be indirect jobs that will be effected not to mention when you include people indirectly effected.