Lyons – Australia 2025

this division will most likely fall at the next election. due to its fairly slim margin. Susie Bower will be the liberal candidate again in 2023. id imagine you will see Albo and Dutton here in the leadup. if it doesnt it will shed strong labor areas to clark in the next redistribution scheduled for august 2025 as its original date of mid november 2024 will be to close to the election and this will guarantee a liberal win in 2028

Dutton isn’t winning in Tasmania, they won’t win 3/5 of the seats with a conservative as leader. Abbott only did it because it was a landslide year this is Small-L liberal territory and unless there’s a big issue like the Franklin Dam which cost Labor Tasmania during the Hawke years, all 5 Tasmanian seats will not be held by the liners after the next election because Dutton is not popular in Tasmania.

I actually think this one of the best chance for a Liberal pick up. It is the most monocultural seat in the country and the demographic that Dutton will appeal. Only thing is that the climate wars will not win votes here as Tasmania has already reached 100% Renewable energy and net zero.

@daniel t I never said they will win all 5 they already have 2 one is on an 8% and bridget archer is a moderate who sured up her margin in an electorate that is famour for 1 term mps. Given that she’s seems to be with the consensus against the stadium I’m sure she will hold. Lyons however is only held by 1200 votes. Given that the liberals are committed to running the same popular candidate I’m sure it won’t be difficult to convince 600 people to change their votes. The wildcard is Jacqui Lambie. Why she does a deal with Albo to get labor preferences is beyond me considering she will be fighting the libs for the last spot and she would get them anyway and labor didnt have any preferences to send to her as they polled under 2 quotas and need preferences to get their 2nd quota. If Lambie shifts her support to the coalition on her how to votes here it could swing the seat as well.

The next redistribution is key here. Lyons is well over quota and the adjoining Clark is well under quota. Lyons will lose some areas in the south somewhere – all strong Labor areas. If a redistribution was held today – Lyons would probably be (by not much) notionally Liberal.

John, that wasn’t my point, my point was the Liberals are not going to win a majority of the Tasmanian seats under current circumstances (3 is a majority of 5) unless they are going towards a national general election victory Dutton won’t appeal with his hard-right stances, and his position on the voice (even though I agree with him on this) will hurt him in progressive Tasmania.

Gavin Pearce is also a hard-right hack in Brandon and will lose if Labor don’t run a controversial candidate there, you also have to remember the state Labor leadership in Tasmania is weak and likely was a drag on their federal counterparts. However since then, that stadium has made the Liberals unpopular in Tasmania and while I agree Bridget Archer has a strong chance to hold, she only holds Bass on a small margin and many voters who approve of her may vote against her because they don’t want the Liberals or Dutton in power.

Tasmania is like New England of the United States of Australia, it isn’t foreseeable to see a social conservative or economic conservative to win in Tasmania. When I say economic conservative I mean more of a Liz Truss style trickle down economics (cut taxes for the rich) style of approach many on the right wing of the party are calling for, this will play disastrously here.

Why did John Howard mostly do poorly in Tasmania except for 1996 and 2004? I ask because his 1998 and 2001 victories were bigger than coalition performance nowadays and they win Tasmanian seats.

I just respectfully disagree that the Liberals will win 3/5 seats, there will almost certainly be a swing against them in Tasmania at the next election with their positions on many issues. Tasmania is not conservative.

Tasmania has five electorates. Two lean heavily to the left, three others are much more marginal, potentially slightly leaning to the right. So the right can very plausibly win three seats while losing the statewide 2PP. Indeed Labor won the 2PP in 2013 while the Liberal Party won three seats.

What chances are there that the AEC might eventually bite the bullet and not have Franklin split into two distinct pieces – Eastern Shore and Huon / Kingston? I am mindful of the fact that it has been like that since Federation. It is just bizarre that there is a division that is in two distinct unconnected pieces.

@ Daniel T while i dont think Tasmania is necessarily conservative like Maranoa, Mallee, Nicholls etc I will not compare it to New England. it does not have the wealth, prestige etc of New England which is home to the best Universities, research institutions and also wealthiest residents in the world with inter generational wealth. Tasmania like QLD is highly decentralized, less urbanized etc. Tasmania has more white working class voters and fewer ethnic communities nor is it highly industrialized like parts of Melbourne so Labor vote is more soft. If we compare it to New England only the state of Maine is comparable and even then Trump did quite well in 2016 and actually got an electoral vote from Maine.

@redistributed i will wager that it will fall in 2025 before the redistribution. the cost of living crisis is biting and people tend to take their anger out on the govt. second point communities of interest are take into account and it is actually connected by sea. much like Mulka in the NT and other divisions that are united over bodies of water
@daniel t have you ever met him and asked him about anything? i did a few months ago and he seems quite intelligent and comes across more centre right then hard right.
@ben thanks
@nimalan the reason trump got the vote in maine is because maines electoral college is split like nebraska where the democrats usually pick up a vote and republicans usuallly get 1 in maine because unlike the rest of the states where its winner take all theres are proportional

@ John agree Trump got an electoral vote because Maine’s electoral college is split by Congressional District. Maine only has two congressional districts. The Second Congressional district was won by Trump and only one of 5 that voted for Trump in 2020 that the Democrats currently hold. i think Maine’s second congressional district is a lot like Lyons and even parts of Bass and Braddon very low population density, the most monocultural areas of their respective nations, a mix of fishing, timber and some agriculture as major industries. Tasmania cant be compared to Boston, Connecticut etc which are very wealthy.

Agree John and Nimalan, most of Tasmania outside Hobart resembles many rural forested areas in places such as Maine but also Montana and Alberta (Canada) which are both heavily conservative featuring mostly agriculture and forestry as their primary industries.

under the new distribution maine is split into 4 electoral college in 3 parts 2,1,1 this time Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district.

@John @Nimalan @Daniel T there is certainly a chance that the Liberals will win Lyons. It is also highly likely that they will hold Braddon and probably Bass too. In fact they can still win the next Tasmanian state election too; I really don’t think the new stadium is as unpopular as it’s being reported by the media. The majority of Tasmanians are supportive of a Tasmanian AFL team, however.

I should also note that not only do the federal and state Liberals support the new stadium but the federal Labor Party does too. Albo even gave federal funding to the construction of the new stadium. The only parties opposed are the Tasmanian Labor Party (on the state level), the Greens (on both levels) and the Jacqui Lambie Network (on both levels).

Agree Nether Portal, whilst the Liberal Party in Tasmania have been in office for 10+ years by the time of the next election (potentially having the ‘its time’ factor working against them) Tasmania is like Queensland being less urban with <60% of the population living in the state capital.

As a result, it is now very favourable for the conservative side especially with state Labor being seen as disorganised and in a state of infighting.

@yoh the thing is state labor is in disarray and currently unelectable much like the Vic liberals

Labor only got back here on a pretty precarious primary vote of just 29%. I can imagine Labor getting elected on such a primary vote where there’s a strong Green vote around say 20% like Richmond, but that’s not the case here. Looks like Brian Mitchell had a bit of luck in his favour with more right-leaning parties like One Nation and UAP preferences splitting roughly 50/50, and JLN solidly in Labor’s favour around 60/40.

Looks like this seat used to match Labor’s overall Tasmanian 2PP result but is increasingly losing its Labor-lean and becoming slightly more conservative. More generally it looks like the southern Tasmanian seats and northern seats are increasingly drifting apart from each other in terms of party support – southern seats becoming stronger for Labor, and northern seats stronger for the Liberals. The northern seats (bar Lyons) all swung towards the Liberals in 2019 and 2022, while the southern seats (bar Lyons) all did the opposite.

Lyons is very loyal to its sitting mps

@mick not really no. they probly wouldnt have won in 2019 if the libs hadnt disendorsed the candidate. and they almost took it in 2022 and missed by a whisker. the libs are confident in running the same candidate in 2025 same as andrew constance. i would expect both to win in 2025. and after the next redistribution it will be a definite gain if they cant get it in 2025 they will in 2028.

@John only NSW, Victoria and WA are being redistributed for the next federal election (which will most likely be in 2025); Queensland, SA, Tasmania, the ACT and the NT will not be redistributed. By the looks of it NSW and Victoria will have a net loss of one seat each while WA will have a net gain of one, meaning the House will go back to 150 seats instead of 151. I guess this is because of Labor’s plan to increase the number of Senators elected in each territory (currently the territories only elect two Senators each for a three-year term, despite the states having 12 Senators in total and unless it’s a double dissolution they elect six Senators each for a six-year term).

@ nether portal i believe thats what i said. NT is scheduled to be redistributed in february ’24 before the election btw. SA, Tasmania, QLD and the ACT were too but given they were within 12 months of the last possible date they have been rescheduled for july/august ’25 meaning Tasmania will be redistributed before the ’28 election as i stated

I do agree that in 2019 had the Libs chosen a better candidate they would have probably won it and got a sophomore surge in 2022.

@Mick, I get your point about loyalty but the former MPs Dick Adams and Eric Hutchinson might disagree with you. After all Dick Adams had a 12.3% margin going into 2013 and lost the seat on a massive 13.5%, apparently the largest in the country, which suggests the people of Lyons don’t always have a lot of leniency and can be pretty punishing! And Eric Hutchinson lost the seat in 2016 after only one term. So maybe the seat isn’t as loyal to sitting MPs as it used to be.

@greens tasmania as a whole has a history of short terms for mps. between 1993-2019 except for a brief 2 term mp between ’98 and ’04 bass has had only 1 term mps, we will see is bridget archer can break this in 2025. braddon similarly has mainly had maximum 2 term mps since ’98 so given the current mp is on his second term we will see if he can break this as well. id say the current would of lost in 2019 if they libs didnt disendorse the candidate. they allmost got him in ’22 and by selecting the same candidate it indicates they are confident of winning in 2025

Wasn’t the Liberal candidate disendorsed in 2019 and there was the case that the Liberal Party recommended voting for the National Party candidate?

@redistributed yea but some of that vote would of been lost to labor since the nationals are considered more conservative then liberal

@ redistributed, correct Liberal party candidate dis-endorsed in 2019 and libs recommended voting for the Nats but Nats dont really have a base in Tasmania so it probably did not help as the Nats did not make the 2CP.
The Libs should be more careful in selecting canadiates in winnable seats. The same election, the Libs disendosed their candidates in Issacs, Scullin. In Scullin, it is unwinnable seat so they can select any clown just like Labor can do that for Barker, Maranoa etc but in winnable seat Lyons or longer term prospect like Issacs they should be more careful.

another solution to the redistribution is the disconnected eastern shore that apart of franklin could be transferred to Clark as it has abridge connection and the lga of derwent valley can go to franklin from lyons

Demographics working pretty hard against Labor in Tasmania, especially northern and central. Median age only going up and the economy is quite static, hard to see why liberal votes would flip back to Labor and many reasons for this type of seat to experience a swing against the government.

Talk of plibersek thinking of shutting down the salmon industry will hurt labor

Re: the salmon farming industry, that’s not necessarily true. Polling suggests the majority of Tasmanians are opposed to the industry, or at the very least want a moratorium on any further expansion. Rural anti-salmon campaigners like Craig Garland have created quite a bit of interest too, even though he later went off the rails a bit.

This is a must hold for the ALP if they don’t want to lose their majority, there isn’t much of a big margin for the ALP to play with here. The incumbency of Brian Mitchell and an old state government that have been fighting amongst themselves ALP could hold on. If the Salmon industry is closed it will hurt them across the three swing seats in Tasmania will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Predicting federal Tasmanian seats based on state results isn’t a good strategy. At the most recent Tasmanian state election (held in 2021), the Liberals won a plurality of the TPP vote in every seat (even Clark). At that election, the Liberals won at least two seats in every seat (not including defections since the election): three each in Bass, Braddon and Lyons and two each in Clark and Franklin. The Liberals also won more than half of the vote in Bass (59.95%), Braddon (57.19%) and Lyons (51.19%) and over 30% in Clark (31.83%) and Franklin (42.26%). If Tasmania had TPP, the Liberals would have won the TPP statewide with 56.10% (+0.60%) and in every seat except Clark.

I’m not predicting, I’m well aware that state and federal results don’t go the same way but these are worth considering I am simply going over all the different factors.

Kos Samaras named Lyons as a seat that’s slipping out of Labor’s hands. I agree that the older, largely regional or small-town demographics aren’t working in Labor’s favour. This would be the first to flip to the LNP in 2025. Lingiari and Gilmore are more defendable.

On the flipside, Hobart’s outer suburbs are growing and making it less rural. Tasmania held up well for the Coalition in 2022 because they were less affected by Black Summer bushfires and Covid and less despair and anger over Morrison’s handling of both.

The salmon industry debate is more focused on the west coast and not in Lyons. It won’t be as damaging as say, Latham’s forestry policy of 2004 when unionists ended up campaigning with the Liberals.

Votante.
Lyons is well over quota and Clark well under quota so those parts in the Hobart suburbs will be lost. These areas vote strongly Labor so the Labor majority could be lost by that change alone.

The Best Hope for Labor would also be if Jacqui Lambie has a strong campaign and that she picks up white working class voters and it leaks back in preferences to Labor. In May 2022 JLN preferences broke 60:40 in favour of Labor.

Parties who nearly won a seat tend to field the same candidate again. I expect Susie Bower to contest as the Liberal candidate unless she chooses not to. For Labor to hold in 2025, the booming outskirts of Hobart in the south of the electorate will have to vote for Labor at the same rate and at the same time, not lose too many votes elsewhere.

@Nimalan. If UAP is gone for good, JLN can possibly scoop up the ex-UAP voters. The preference flow from JLN to Labor isn’t that strong and that’s a thorn for Labor. I see Dutton as better than Morrison at picking up white, rural and working class voters. This could give the Liberals a chance. What makes JLN stand out is that it’s a regionalist, Tasmanian interests party.

@Redistributed, yes. In 2025, Labor still has a chance of sandbagging or increasing its margin. The next redistribution will happen much later. At this rate, large chunks of Labor-leaning areas in the south will shift to Clark. I think Bass is slightly under-quota so it could pick up some of Launceston’s suburbs from Lyons.

Tasmania last had a redistribution in 2017 – so under the 7 year rule there should be one next year before the 2025 election.

Redistributed, the redistribution is due late 2024 but that falls within 12 months of the expected dissolution of the house so it will be deferred until just after the election.

The same situation occurred for 2016 as Tasmania was due for a redistribution but had to be deferred until after the election.

@ Votante
With respect to UAP they dont have a clear base they talk about something different each election perform accordingly. I agree with you that Dutton can appeal to white working class voters better than Morrison but interesting to see if JLN can compete for that vote.

It looks like the govt will go full term based on latest newspoll unless albo can turn things around in the new year

@ John
I agree govt should go for a full term if they go now it would look like they are abdicating their responsibilities. Yesterdays’s inflation number was pleasing (in the right direction) and this needs to be monitored over the coming months. The Government needs a laser sharp focus on inflation and will need an economic narrative come May 2025.

@nimalan they were speculating they were gonna go early but based on the lastest polls they will try and hold on to their majorityas long as possible

I can’t comment on the main election guide post so I’m commenting here.

Everyone predict which seats you think will flip at the next federal election.

Subject to redistribution being finalised,
1. Best chance of Liberal gain: Lyons
2. Paterson-subject to redistribution removing Kurri Kurri, potential Liberal Gain
3. Either one of Menzies or Deakin to flip to notionally Labor and will be retained by Labor
4. Good chance of a loss in Sturt
5. Potential Labor gain in Leichahardt with Warren Entsch Retiring
6. Key Bellwethers at the next election, Pearce, Hasluck, McEwen, Robertson which will determine fate of government.

@nimalan il agree they will probably either menzies or deakin due to redistribution but i think they stnad a chance of regaining aston. agree n sturt SA is the one state where support for labor is holding or slightly improving.i think liberal will retain leichardt given the anti govt swing at a state and federl level. mcewen maybe not so much as i think it will be redistributed significantly to favour one side or the other

@ John, with respect to Aston i will make a prediction closer to the election (depending how Labor is doing then). The Knox area has a tendency to swing to Labor when there are in Government and doing well. For example in 2010, Aston had one of the biggest swings to Labor in the nation and would have been won by Labor on current boundaries and Daniel Andrews did very well in Knox in 2022 and Aston would be a Labor seat on state figures as well. Aston is becoming older and wealthier helping the Libs but becoming more ethnically diverse like Deakin/Menzies which is helping Labor as well. I agree McEwen is dependent on boundaries, the one that Trent submitted which i endorsed will make McEwen more Liberal-friendly. I made Leichardt comments based on Warren Entsch retiring and also is also different from other regional QLD seats outside of SEQ that is more based on tourism and services rather than agriculture & resources but could very well by retained by LNP.

Labor will lose a seat in Victoria due to the redistribution. Even if Casey is abolished, it will make Mcewen Liberal so one down for Labor and no change for the Libs. Although, Deakin or Menzies could become notionally Labor, which I agree they can retain. The other seat will become safer for thr Libs.

If Aston moves eastwards at all, it will become quite safe for Labor. If, heaven forbid, it moved south it would also become safe. Moving west in Vermont South could see it lost to the Libs. Going north in Bayswater North would have almost no impact.

It’s possible that both Menzies and Deakin become notionally Labor if Menzies crosses the Yarra and Deakin moves west into Box Hill and Blackburn, especially if Aston moves into Vermont and Vermont South. Don’t think that would be a particularly good outcome in terms of communities of interest though.