ALP 0.9%
Incumbent MP
Brian Mitchell, since 2016.
Geography
Tasmania’s largest seat by area, Lyons includes parts of every region of the state. The seat stretches from the outskirts of Devonport and Launceston in the north to the outskirts of Hobart in the south, as well as the central highlands and the east coast of Tasmania.
History
Lyons was originally named Wilmot, which was created as a central Tasmanian electorate in 1903. The seat was held by a variety of non-Labor parties up to 1929, when the seat was won by former Premier of Tasmania Joseph Lyons. He left the ALP during his first term in federal Parliament and was elected Prime Minister in 1931 at the head of the new United Australia Party. The ALP won the seat in a 1939 by-election following Lyons’ death, but lost the seat at the 1940 election. The ALP’s Gil Duthie won the seat at the 1946 election, and held the seat until the 1975 election, when he was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Max Burr.
In 1984, the seat was renamed Lyons in honour of the former Prime Minister and his wife Enid, who was the first female member of the House of Representatives. Burr held the renamed seat until 1993, when he retired and the ALP’s Dick Adams won the seat.
Dick Adams held Lyons for the ALP for the next twenty years. At the 2004 election, a 4.5% swing against the ALP made the seat marginal, but in 2007 Adams recovered most of his margin, partly due to conflict in the Liberal Party, with the original Liberal candidate, Ben Quin, resigning and running as an independent after Minister for the Environment Malcolm Turnbull approved the Gunns pulp mill.
Adams gained a further swing of almost 4% at the 2010 election, but in 2013 he was defeated by Liberal candidate Eric Hutchinson, after a 13.5% swing. Hutchinson lost in 2016 to Labor’s Brian Mitchell, who was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Assessment
Lyons is a very marginal seat and would be a key Liberal target.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Susie Bower | Liberal | 27,296 | 37.2 | +13.0 |
| Brian Mitchell | Labor | 21,295 | 29.0 | -7.4 |
| Liz Johnstone | Greens | 8,382 | 11.4 | +2.0 |
| Troy Robert Pfitzner | Jacqui Lambie Network | 7,962 | 10.9 | +10.9 |
| Emma Jane Goyne | One Nation | 3,927 | 5.4 | -2.8 |
| Jason Evans | United Australia | 1,976 | 2.7 | -3.4 |
| Anna Megan Gralton | Animal Justice | 1,312 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Rhys Griffiths | Liberal Democrats | 1,188 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Informal | 4,932 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Brian Mitchell | Labor | 37,341 | 50.9 | -4.3 |
| Susie Bower | Liberal | 35,997 | 49.1 | +4.3 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. Lyons covers all or part of twelve council areas, and these council boundaries have been used to divide booths into three areas.
- Central – Break O’Day, Central Highlands, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Northern Midlands, Southern Midlands.
- North – Kentish, Meander Valley.
- South – Brighton, Clarence, Derwent Valley, Sorell, Tasman.
The Labor vote tends to be highest at the southern end of the electorate and gradually decline as you move north. Labor won 58.7% of the two-party-preferred vote in the south, while the Liberal Party won 53.7% in the centre and 57.1% in the north.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.6% in the centre to 12.4% in the south. The Jacqui Lambie Network came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 9.3% in the north to 12.2% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | JLN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 12.4 | 12.2 | 58.7 | 19,373 | 26.4 |
| Central | 9.6 | 9.6 | 46.3 | 13,558 | 18.5 |
| North | 10.1 | 9.3 | 42.9 | 10,182 | 13.9 |
| Other votes | 11.6 | 11.0 | 49.6 | 15,183 | 20.7 |
| Pre-poll | 12.7 | 11.2 | 51.9 | 15,042 | 20.5 |
Election results in Lyons at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor, the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network.
@Nimalan I think Braddon will be Liberal even in 2042 but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bass does that since it’s more urban. Braddon has two major regional cities (Burnie and Devonport).
Who knows what Australian politics will look like in 2042? A lot of unexpected twists and turns have happened over the past 18 years.
Some among us are unable to correctly forecast elections 18 days out, let alone 18 years.
It was more hypothetical about 2042 but will wanted to state that Tasmania is weird and has gone in circles before and will likely again
Yeah it’s just that Clark won’t flip unless Andrew Wilkie retires then it would go to Labor.
@Nimalan and @NP in normal circumstances pre-2022 Bennelong and Chisholm on these boundaries should be comfortably safe Lib seats that they never would have to worry about losing. How have times changed since then.
@ NP
Sometimes seats permanently change mainly because of demographic change. For example Cook (Federal electorate) used to be a marginal seat but today is blue ribbon. That is mainly due to demographic change. Back in the 1970s it was a mortgage belt middle class area and was full of young families. Fast forward, 50 years, Sydney is a much bigger city and property rise has risen signficantly so the demographic that can purchase property in such areas are much wealthier. The area of Bathurst/Calare has also changed permanently with the closure of Coal mines around Lithgow. The same is true for Morwell in Victoria. The Difference is that both NSW and Victoria are much more urbanized states so the state parties can afford to forget about some of these seats. This is not true in Tasmania where only 44% of the Population lives in Hobart and Braddon makes up 20% of Tasmania population so if Labor wants to win a state government they still need a decent vote in Braddon and need to keep up their brand,
@Nimalan I reckon Labor can win without Braddon. The Liberals still polled over 45% in Braddon on the state level.
@Dan M agree.
@ Nether Portal, Do you mean Labor party can win a state election with a combined ALP/GRN primary under 30% in Braddon and only 2/7 seats.
@ Dan M agree, since neither seats on the 2025 boundaries have any working class suburbs and pretty much only middle class and elite suburbs.
@Nimalan not under 30% primary but yes definitely. However they would need to win big in Hobart and it would help to win in Launceston too. And that’s a scenario I can see happening.
While it’s obviously hard to predict an election four years away, at the moment I think Braddon will go four Liberals, two Labor and Craig Garland (the JLN is falling apart just like the Centre Alliance/SA Best did in South Australia). I feel like 2024 was just a “breakout election” for the JLN.
Breakout elections happen for regional minor parties quite often:
* 2012 Queensland state election: KAP
* 2017 Queensland state election: One Nation
* 2018 SA state election: SA Best
* 2019 NSW state election: SFF
* 2020 NT general election: Territory Alliance
* 2022 Australian federal election: teals
* 2022 Victorian state election: teals
* 2023 NSW state election: teals
* 2024 Tasmanian state election: JLN
* 2024 ACT general election: IFC
All of these parties failed to meet expectations. They all flopped basically. The only ones that actually are still relevant are KAP (three seats in Queensland plus one seat federally), One Nation (no seats anymore but still pulls in a large base) and the federal teals. However IFC haven’t been in for long yet so who knows what they’ll be like?
@ Nether Portal
Great points about regional parties. I think this seat has the lowest % of people who speak a non English language at home. Previously, you did a table and maps and listed the languages by seat in terms of minority languages. I was wondering if you could do a table and rank the Federal electorates by % who speak English at home exactly like you did for local councils recently. We can then analyse trends in voting patterns. I would suggest a table than a map since it is easier to rank do filtering by states and download to excel.
https://jumpshare.com/v/p5pRdEp2p7kv72krEhib- The table you did to list for minority languages
Trying to predict elections years out is about as reliable as reading tea leaves. Anything can and does happen in politics. I personally wouldn’t be confident that Tasmania manages to reach 2028 without another election, let alone where Braddon’s 7 seats go. Hare Clark throws in surprises every single election.
Tasmania currently looks like it has a growing non-major party and non-Greens vote in its north. It’s extremely hard to tell what is going to happen with them even if the election were to be held tomorrow.
@Nimalan sure I can do that but I’m busy today so it’ll be tomorrow.
@ Nether Portal, all good take your time. No rush in the meantime i will get Flynn and Capricornia ready for you this weekend as well for you to calculate.
@Nimalan thanks. I can do that today.
Tasmania should la set until 2028 as as it was only called a year earlier this time due to renegade mps who were extorting the government and the government called their bluff and they were all kicked out of parliament. The govt seems stable as JLN imploded and the mps seem to be getting along fine with the govt. If the govt does go to another election id say the Libs will be the beneficiaries due to the likely federal minority labor govt selling their souls to the greens and the teals and the fact the redistribution of the federal boundaries will cause the same effect on the state boundaries as they are always identical and the redistribution will remove the labor voting south of Lyons. I’d wager due to not wanting to create a weird looking Clark there will be a 3 way swap with Franklin. That will likely see the southern part of Lyons go to Franklin and the eastern shore that’s disconnected from Franklin go to Clark. Possibly a small change between Bass and Braddon to fix up those two.
@nether portal I’d wager Willie will pass the torch onto another independent who he’d endorse and they would likely win. The greens might also be a shot in Clark too. Labor are by no means guaranteed to win the seat once he retires. But obviously it wouldn’t be won by the Libs. Brandon is becoming more conservative and Bass Bridget Archer is a shoe in as she gets preferences from Lambie. Lyons after 2025 is likely to be a safe lib seat as the redistribution will remove labor’s strongest areas from the division. But in my personal opinion i believe it will go Liberal in 2025 anyway. Labor’s decision to swap out Mitchell for what’s her name “The Failure of Tasmania” reeks of desperation that they are worried about the seat. If the Libs can knockout Lambie from the senate in Tasmania and Gallagher out in the ACT because I think she’s more.vunerable then Pocock. Labor is gonna have a really hard time governing in minority. They would be down to 24 senators assuming the Libs can win 3 and onp 1 in qld. Then along with the Greens 11 they would have 35 meaning they would need all 4 crossbemchers to pass.legislation which means Pocock Tyrell Payman and Thorpe would all need to agree in order to pass anything because ONP and Babet certainly won’t be helping.
Based off the latest polling i reckon the following seats will flip
WA – Curtin, Bullwinkel and Tangey. All Lib gains.
VIC – Aston should flip back to the libs after the by election loss, Kooyong, Goldstein are both lineball, I’m gonna say Mcewen will be a lib gain, Menzies notional Lib retain, Dunkley is a bit hard to tell Labor will certainly lose the sympathy vote that helped Belyea hold on at the by election. Whether she’s gets a sophomore vote is too early too tell so il mark this one with a ?. Labor will likely hold Will’s especially if the deflated greens vote holds up, especially in the wake of Labor stance on a Palestinian state. Labor to be competitive in Melbourne too.
NSW – Bennelong, Gilmore, Paterson, Robertson. All Lib gains. Libs to be competitive in a heap of seats Werriwa, Whitlam, Shortland, Reid, Parramatta, Macquarie, Hunter, Dobell, Eden Monaro, Maybe Greenway and Richmond. Doubt they’ll make any gains at this point but those should be well exposed in 2028.
QLD – could be movement in Blair, Moreton and Rankin but likely not enough this time around. I’d expect Greens to lose Brisbane and Ryan. I reckon at this point Ryan to LNP, Brisbane could go either way.
NT – lingiari seems a certain loss and Solomon could be vulnerable
TAS – Lyons to go to Libs.
SA – status quo likely, sturt and/or Boothby could go either way.
ACT – status quo
So atm I’ve got
Coalition – 68-70 seats
Labor – 68-70 seats
Greens – 2 seats
Others – 10 seats
Under these numbers given the greens are only going to side with Labor and the teals and Wilkie likely too i think labor would be better placed to form govt. If the Libs started cutting into the competitive seats they would be likely to form some sort of govt. I think Labor may lose Richmond due to Justine Elliot being on a knife edge in terms of dropping out of the 2CP. But I’m not ready to give that away until I see who the coalition put up.