Longman – Australia 2025

As a point of interest, there’s a very big container sign sitting at corner of M1 (Bruce Highway) and the Bribie Island Road intersection of Terry Young here. (Southbound, just beyond the bridge, can be seen on Google Maps.) I know there was talk on Tallyroom about certain locations of offices/signs on the Gold Coast and thought this would be one to mention as no other signs of MP were noticed on the main highway. To note, this overlaps the state electoral district of Pumicestone and wondering if the LNP might be using that to be more visible before a launch at trying to get that seat back. Although, Terry does have a 3% margin, I don’t see this seat as one falling next Federal Election.

@Politics_Obsessed I believe that it’s been positioned there consistently since the 2019 election (someone please correct me if I’m wrong), and very likely without coincidence – the Bruce Highway is an extremely high traffic and valuable outdoor media location. Much like it was no coincidence that Amanda Stoker had her Senate office prominently positioned in a highly lucrative location: right next to the M1 and fitted with a very large billboard. In a prospect location for the LNP too (Springwood & Logan more generally).

Although in regards to the Longman container, I also think that you might be overstating how much conscious strategising and relevance to specific elections like the upcoming State election and Pumicestone it might have. But do agree that LNP would have intent to pick up Pumicestone. I’ve always thought that is was funny just how dumped and abandoned the container appears. But due to the lucrative location, I do think that it is there by design though.

On the topic of outdoor media, it has been quite interesting seeing Van Manen’s recent spend on outdoor media at either end of the division of Forde. Logan River Road going into Beenleigh and Loganlea Road heading towards the highway in Slack Creek (not far from Stoker’s old electoral office actually). It has a fairly innocuous Merry Christmas message and this is obviously part of a conscious sandbagging effort by the LNP to grow Van Manen’s recognition within the division. A division which rates low when it comes to political engagement.

It has been a case of dueling billboards too. Prior to being an ad for Van Manen, the Slacks Creek billboard was held by Treasurer Jim Chalmers of neighbouring Rankin. The Forde/Rankin boundary really is very close to this signage. Loganlea Road takes you from one division to the other. On the Rankin side, not far from this road is some of LNP’s best booths in Rankin. And on the Forde side of the road are some of Labor’s best booths in Forde. The Chalmers billboard had messaging which highlighted that the Loganlea Road major upgrade (and roadworks) was an initiative of his office and the Federal Labor government. Very clear that Labor see Chalmers as a figure to throw on billboards and grow their support in Queensland.

Future boundary changes have the potential to drastically shake up either division.

I also suspect that LNP are likely to field Judi Van Manen (Van Manen’s wife) as a candidate again once more in the division of Macalister (which sits fairly neatly within Forde). And I suspect that this outdoor spend is a reinforcing of the family’s name recognition that they hope to cash in at the state election in favour of Van Manen. It hasn’t worked since the incarnation of the division in 2017. Although both electoral contests for Macalister have been unusual in that they have featured a prospective independent candidate. Perhaps the LNP think this will be different in more of a classic contest.

The low margin is quite deceptive. It will be tricky for Labor to win this as there are many forces going against them.

Dutton from a neighbouring electorate. He could bring a home state advantage similar to Kevin ’07. Add to that, outer-suburban, working-class areas could warm up to the LNP as part of a longer-term political realignment. This could ignite a regional and working-class backlash against Labor similar to in 2019.

Labor had high hopes in Longman in 2022 but missed out. 2022’s election saw swings to the LNP in low SES areas. Caboolture is a prime example. This explains how LNP held onto Longman. Unlucky for the LNP elsewhere, the largest swings to them were in safe Labor seats e.g. Calwell, Gorton, and not one seat flipped to the LNP. I suspect the LNP can hold onto their gains in Longman than in outer Melbourne because their gains in outer Melbourne were largely driven by pandemic politics and one-off boosts to votes for UAP and One Nation.

There’s the issue of redistribution. Longman is the most over-quota electorate in QLD and if it stays this way until the next redistribution, it will most likely lose Labor-leaning Kallangur and Dakabin to Lilley.

Agree Votante, Longman is a classic example of a white working class seat, low levels of education, but higher % of property owners, no real manufacturing or unionized workforce. Dutton is the local boy here no real ethnic communities etc. North West Melbourne is quite different in places like Calwell, Gorton, they have a higher % of unionised workforce, more recent immigrants & refugees, heavily industrialized and very CALD. One Nation does not traditionally do well in CALD areas the only right-wing minor party that can do well is Family First but they did not run in 2019 or 2022 Federal election but they did run at the Victorian state election in every seat so it will be interesting if Family First runs at the next federal election.

I do however say Muslims in 2022 Election swung Libs hard to TPP not just because of pandemic politics but also Libs could finally make some inroads as politicians like George Christensen is no longer is an issue but I expect the inroads will be short lived due to Libs pro-Israel Stance.

@Marh who says all Muslims are anti-Israel? The UAE openly supports Israel in the Israel-Hamas war (though I’ll admit that most Muslim countries either expressed support for Palestine or remained neutral).

@ Marh, if it was not for pandemic politics i actually feel that Calwell, Scullin & Gorton would have had a status quo result or slight swing to Labor similar to seats such as Blaxland & Watson which had a status quo result. The only area i believe Libs were making inroads into the Muslim community is around Liverpool/Werriwa i feel that is because of Ned Mannoun and the Labor having underperfoming MPs like Anne Staley. However, i do agree that in the 2022 election there was a less focus on the Middle East Geopolitics though. During the early stages of the pandemic there was some Islamphobia blaming Eid gatherings for spreading the second wave.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-15/muslims-melbourne-raising-concern-over-covid19-reports/12454846

@Nimalan, For Blaxland, I think there was still Muslim swing to Libs (not as large as Victoria though) but they are often lived in areas that are mixed in with other ethic groups (such as Chinese in Auburn and Vietnamese in Bankstown not mentioned many others throughout the seat) hence the swings cancel each other out. For Watson, the Muslim Liberal candidate was inactive plus there is also many other ethnic groups in the seats with Chinese in Campsie, Greeks in Roselands and many Lebanese are Christians.

In the face of a 3.2% NSW swing, NSW seats with high Islamic population

Blaxland .22%
Chifley 1.1%
Fowler -8.2%
MacArthur .13%
McMahon 2.85%
Parramatta 1.07%
Watson 1.58%
Werriwa .35%

So whilst they all mostly swung to Labor, all were less than the state average. So I do think similar dynamics were occurring in NSW and Victoria. It’s just that the Labor vote with Muslim voters probably held up a lot better in 2019 than it did with the same group in NSW in 2019. Making Labor sit at a reasonably high water mark in VIC and more room to go down.

@ Drake
Agree these seats mostly had a swing to Labor less than the national average. However, as i pointed out in the Braddon thread the 2022 federal election was a series of by-elections than a classic change election. Outside of WA the swings against the Liberals were mostly concentrated in Teal areas and areas with a large concentration of Chinese Australians. Roberston was a seat which changed hands that does not have either demographic and is a classic bellwether. This in part explains why such seats had a swing less than the national average. Although i do concede it is possible that Libs were making some inroads as Marh said but maybe not enough to have an impact.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2025/braddon2025/comment-page-1#comment-791949

@nimalan yea its funny because none of them want Palestinian refugees. Makes you wonder why?

@ John
I havnt actually heard any Muslim community organisation in Australia opposing Palestinian refugees from Gaza only Sky news have opposed it

@nimalan sry i meant nether portal and btwbAustralia isn’t Muslim country

You’ve got to wonder why we should take them given that Muslim countries don’t want them and there’s a reason

@Nimalan, I agree that One Nation normally doesn’t do well in high CALD, working class electorates. Outside of QLD, they traditionally do well in outer suburban and peri-urban areas such as around Camden and Wollondilly as well as the Hunter in NSW.

2022 was unique in that there were booths in Blaxland, Macarthur, Calwell and Gorton where their primary vote was over 10%. This is despite competition from UAP for the anti-establishment vote. The swings to One Nation in electorates with large Muslimp populations are more because of socio-economic factors and pandemic politics. One Nation and UAP were positioned as anti-establishment alternatives to the two major parties. The Liberals primary votes in such electorates either decreased or went up marginally. Their 2PP increased a lot in electorates like Calwell thanks to votes for ON and UAP.

@Marh, George Christensen wasn’t a factor in 2022. He was on the ON Senate ticket and yet his party still got swings in western Sydney and outer Melbourne.

@John I’m obviously aware Australia isn’t a Muslim country. But I’m saying that Australian Muslims aren’t necessarily all anti-Israel and pro-Hamas.

Yes but thosevpro Palestine Muslim countries aren’t in any hurry to take Palestinian refugees that was my point

Supposedly this seat contained Marburg, Rosewood and Laidley when this was first contested in 1996? (even Esk) This seat would have been Liberal in 1993 and possibly 1990.

@ Nether Portal
To assist with your calculations, state electorates
1. All of Morayfield and Pumicestone
2. Parts of Bancroft, Glasshouse and Kurwongbah

Booth/Suburbs
1.Banksia Beach
2. Beachmere
3. Bellera
4. Bongaree
5. Bribie Iland PPVC
6. Burpengary
7. Caboolture
8. Dakabin
9. Donnybrook
10. Elimbah
11. Morayfield
12. Mount Mee
13. Narangba
14. Narangba Valley
15. Ningi
16. Sandstone Spoint
17. Toorbul
18. Upper Caboolture
19. Wamuran
20. Woodford
21. Woorim

@Nimalan thanks, will look at this.

State level TPP here (2024):

* Labor: 52.9%
* LNP: 47.1%

Labor did 6.0% better on the state level here than on the federal level in 2022. Interestingly while Petrie is safer for the LNP than Longman federally it’s the opposite on the state level. This is surprising given that Caboolture strongly voted Labor despite big swings.

Now I’ve calculated the results for Brisbane, Leichhardt (to be updated), Longman, Petrie and Ryan. Including Leichhardt I’ve done 5/30 seats so far. Again I will focus on urban seats first (i.e SEQ seats plus Herbert) then regional and rural seats.

How possible is it that a poling place exists for state elections but not federal elections?

Oh and I’ve also done Rankin so 6/30.

@Votante the Electoral Commissions decide where polling places are. The small Aboriginal town of Toomelah in NSW has a state booth all the time but hasn’t had a federal booth since 2013.

According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:

* 9% of Bancroft
* 37% of Glass House
* 55% of Kurwongbah
* 100% of Morayfield
* 100% of Pumicestone