Lingiari – Australia 2025

A Liberal should run in Cowper too. The state seats of Ballina, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie and Tweed should have Liberal candidates (when the sitting Nationals members retire in Coffs and Tweed, Port remains Liberal and Ballina gets a Liberal candidate). This won’t effect votes though it just is better for growing regional cities.

Cowper has a sitting nats member so they won’t ATM. In regards to state seats I agree but only if the nats fail because of opv they each have designated seats in regards to ballina the nats have failed to retake it so I think it’s time for the libs to have. Shot. The libs should be running in hunter whitlam and Richmond to suppement the nats as with fpv any votes simply come back to the party and the libs may fair better. Lok what happened in shepparton and swan hill they combined to topple those Independents. I think the libs/nats can win hunter and whitlam and have a real shot at Richmond. Ballina at a state level might be a bit hard of an ask since the problem is in byron bay where the high greens vote is probably gonna keep that seat for them. And it’s probably only gonna she’d ballina in future. If the next redistribution could somehow put lismore and byron bay into the one seat that could help the coalition.

@ MQ
I dont think it is urbanisation that is hurting the Coalition. The most urbanized part is Tweed Heads and that is why the Nats do best. The issue real is the alternative lifestyle communities of Byron Shire where Labor gets 75% TPP. Urbanisation has not hurt the Coalition in the Sunshine Coast or Gold Coast either. It is only when there is tree changers/sea changers it hurts them. Even if Tweed Heads is Urbanized it lacks the characteristics of Urban Working class areas such as Blue collar workers, unionized jobs, Public servents, Universities, Ethnic communities etc. If Byron Shire had been taken out there is a good Chance the Coalition could win Richmond. The State seat of Tweed is held by the Nats.

I wonder if Labor vote is inflated is Tweed Heads and Ballina due to an a personal vote from Justine Elliott given Nat vote is stronger in state booths

@nimalan without byron bay richmond would be a slam dunk for the coalition. i think the only thing putting it in the labor column now is the local members personal vote otherwise it would be a at v green contest and i think that if the libs put in a candidate as well the coalition could well regain it once she retires

@ Marh
Good Question, if Justine Elliot retires the Labor vote in Tweed Heads and Ballina maybe up for grabs for the Coalition. However, i dont think the Coalition including the Libs can make any inroads into Byron Shire in any case.

@ John
Agree without Byron Bay it will be very different. I wonder if the Nats can do better against the Greens maybe the Greens will not appeal as much to Ballina and Tweed Heads as Labor currently does. However, i am honestly doubt if even the Libs can make inroads into Byron Shire so to win they need to very well in the other areas to overcome a 75% TPP against them n Bryon Shire.

@Marh @John @Nimalan Tweed Heads and Kingscliff will certainly be better for the Coalition once Justine Elliot retires. Ballina is tricky since there is a high Greens vote there so usually what happens on the federal and state level in Ballina itself and the surrounding towns is the Nationals come first but Labor/Greens win the booths on preferences.

Byron Bay is unwinnable because it and the surrounding towns are full of hippies (though Byron itself now has a lot of affluent inner-city elites who moved there) so they always vote for the Greens or the more extreme ones vote for fringe parties and candidates (Mullumbimby for example has a significant minority of people who are anti-vaxxers and anti-fluoride and conspiracy theorist type hippies as opposed to the Byron type which focuses a lot on stuff like the environment and cannabis).

@ NP
Agree the Byron Shire Alternative Communities are very left-wing. If there was an electorate that combined the Byron Shire and includes Lismore Surrounds such as Nimbin, The Channons etc it would be pretty much the US State of Vermont which is an entire state which is alternative lifestyle. Something that i just found out that the Town of Wilsons Creek is about 5% Jewish! which i did not expect in a small rural town

@nimalan the problem for the coalition is the nats only appeal to the more conservative voters which usually come with rural and regional communities. as it becomes more urban and people move from other parts of the country they look for more centre parties that how i think labor was able to win initially coupled with the small amount of preferences from the greens they are able to win the seat and noww the member has a personal vote that keeps her in office. if the libs run a candidate they can at leas try and capture some of the centre leaning vote. of the 3 shires tweed, byron and ballina byron is the smallest so they really only need to wedge labor out of the 2pp and it should be winnable

Thats a Fair point about Nats maybe not appealing to Urbanised voters. However, the state seat of Tweed in still held by Nats so they may argue that they still appeal. I am not sure how much Centre leaning vote there is left Byron Shire but i agree there will be a lot in Ballina and Tweed Shire. So maybe both Libs and Nats can run. The problem is the Nats will not want the Libs running in the state seat of Tweed though as they already hold it.

@np its not ballina that is the problem its byron bay that is got a high greens vote. unfortunately if the parliament were to expand it would likely lose the ballina parts. this si why they need to put a lib candidate in the mix to supplement the nats candidate as with fpv the vote will flow back anyway if you have a look at 2010 when the libs ran as well they did manage to strip some votes from labor and justine elliots primary has been slowly deteriating every election and i imagine that if she doesnt retire by 2028 she will lose the seat anyway. i believe the 2022 nats cnadidate had some controversey as well. based on the downwards trajectory of the labor vote and the increase in the greens vote i predict justine elliot will lose richmond in 2025. though i cant say to who.

lismore and byron wont be able to be in the same seat federally as its a corner seat and unless its population drastically drops it will only shrink and not increase in size however putting lismore and byron together in a state seat might be possible

@nimalan yes the nats will continue to claim tweed as a nats seat until they lose it and even then they may kee trying just like they do in ballina. i think the nats should give the libs a shot at ballina though. the coalition agreement will prevent the libs running until tweed is lost

@John it’s true that the 2022 candidate was controversial which is why Tweed Heads suburbs like Banora Point that usually vote National or Liberal had big swings against the Nationals.

@NP another reason to have a secondary candidate. i think the nats vote will recover and alon with greater preference discipl from the right of cnetre vote i think justine elliot will be gone in 2025.so it will be interesting to see how her vote breaks. this could be the time for the libs to come in and sweep the field as without another centre candidate to go to they will break either or left to the greens or nats have another centre party in the mix could be just waht they need. either way my prediction is that justine eliot will lose richmond at the next election.

and tbh i think the only thing that saved her in 2022 was the controversy around the nats candidate

Lisa Siebert is the Clp candidae

CLP gain most likely but will be more marginal than it is on the territory level where it’s a fairly safe seat (Solomon is also a fairly safe seat on the territory level and while I expect it to swing to the CLP federally too it won’t flip).

@np i expect it to be a gain but despite being marginal it may take longer to decalre this seat due to the nature of the booths in such remote places. in 2013 in looked like a coalition gain on election night but snowden was able to hold on

in fact i expect the coalition to fall short of majority with aroun 68-70 seats. which likely wont be enough to form minority given the nature of most of the crossbenchs opinion towards dutton. however i expect the coalition to be within a whisker of at least a dozen seats