Lingiari – Australia 2025

this will be a target for sure. if they run Jacinta Price again with her increased profile it might get the job done. not sure if they want to take the gamble though

@John yes, as Scomo targeted it in 2022 I’m sure Dutton will in 2025. It will be one of the top targets, especially with a strong campaign already beginning in Alice Springs, which is a CLP-voting area on both the federal and territory level. Marion Scrymgour won 50.95% of the TPP making it an ultra-marginal seat due to it having a margin of under 1%. The CLP ran Price as their candidate in 2019 but in 2022 they decided to run Damien Ryan, who was the CLP’s candidate for Araluen (which is a territory-level seat in Alice Springs, held by CLP-turned-independent-turned Territory Alliance-turned independent MP Robyn Lambley by a margin of just 50.5%) at the 2020 general election. Ryan also served as the Mayor of Alice Springs and if elected federally would sit with with the Nationals like Jacinta Price does (this is just my guess because of this: https://nationals.org.au/damien-ryan/ i.e a page on the Nationals’ official website about him as a candidate), whereas when Natasha Griggs was the CLP member for Solomon (which covers Darwin and most of Palmerston), she sat with the Liberal Party. However, I must stress that in a vast remote seat with a high Indigenous population having a non-controversial Indigenous candidate would be good for the CLP. I still can’t tell how this seat or the entire 2024 NT general election is going to go. Solomon would be another target I’m guessing considering they CLP has won it before despite it now being a fairly safe Labor seat.

Maybe we can get some campaign going in the external territories for once. Norfolk Island 🇳🇫 is in the federal seat of Bean in the ACT (despite being administered by NSW) and the Indian Ocean Territories (Christmas Island 🇨🇽 and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands 🇨🇨) are in the seat of Lingiari (despite being administered by WA). In 2022, Norfolk Island mostly voted for the Liberals while Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands mostly voted for Labor, according to polling place results in Bean and Lingiari (which are both Labor-held seats).

The thing I would caution is that the indigenous voting enrolment numbers have skyrocketed recently due to the Voice Referendum the point the recent NT redistribution had to be abandoned and redone. This would significantly benefit Labor even though I think Alice Springs will swing very strongly to the CLP.

@Dan M Katherine will also swing to the CLP heavily, on both the federal and territory level. Normally Katherine is a very safe CLP seat but it’s only marginal given that the CLP had to recover it back in 2020 with Jo Hersey as candidate after the 2016 landslide loss when Labor shockingly defeated sitting MLA for Katherine and then-Treasurer William Westra von Holthe (who almost became leader and would have saved the CLP at least two extra seats, i.e Braitling (in Alice Springs) and Katherine). Even though Labor was predicted to win a landslide, it was expected that Lia Finocchiaro would win the new seat of Spillett in Palmerston for the CLP (which she did, easily) and that Willem Westra von Holthe would definitely retain Katherine (it was also a shock that Adam Giles lost Braitling), but instead the CLP’s second seat was actually Daly in western Arnhem Land (which Labor won at a by-election after the CLP’s Gary Higgins resigned, though the CLP can still definitely win it back).

Anyway, the times of Indigenous people in remote communities being Labor voters is over now; ever since 2012 (when Terry Mills won power for the CLP), the CLP has actually been better in the remote areas and regional cities whereas Labor has dominated in Darwin (particularly central and northern Darwin as they still are losing ground to the CLP in southern Darwin (normally a CLP stronghold), with seats like Fannie Bay, Fong Lim and of course Port Darwin swinging back to the CLP post-2016). Many of the CLP’s seats on the territory level are in rural and remote areas (Barkly, Namatjira and Nelson) as opposed to cities and large towns (Braitling, Brennan, Katherine and Spillett). On the other hand, the only Labor seat south of Arnhem Land is Gwoja.

Pretty sure that Labor are still much preferred among rural Indigenous voters. You might be able to claim there’s some trending against them but any survey of Indigenous voters, whether they be urban or rural, will show them to still be Labor voters. Rural seats are not exclusively Indigenous.

Also a rather glaring omission to not note that Arafura had a 17% swing to Labor in a recent by-election purely by virtue of it not being “south of Arnhem Land”.

How the 2024 nt election goes will give us a galring picture of what will happen in the federal election

@Adda not if you poll Aboriginal people in Alice Springs or Katherine, where they typically vote CLP. I should also note that the seats of Barkly and Namatjira are held by the CLP and it is mostly made up of Indigenous people; Barkly includes Tennant Creek and the Barkly region while Namatjira (named after Albert Namatjira) includes the outback southeast of the Territory as well as some outer suburbs of Alice Springs.

Anyway, a couple of things I should point out:

1. The Arafura by-election was caused by the death of a sitting Labor MLA, Lawrence Costa, an Indigenous man. Labor’s candidate (and now the MLA for Arafura) Manuel Brown was one of his staffers.
2. In 2012 the CLP won because of gains in remote seats, not in urban areas; note that Arafura and Arnhem were some seats that changed hands from Labor to the CLP at that election.
3. Labor actually only holds four seats outside of Darwin and Palmerston: Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Gwoja. The CLP on the other hand has five: Barkly, Braitling, Katherine, Namatjira and Nelson; while independents have Araluen, Goyder and Mulka. In contrast, Labor holds every single seat in Darwin and one of the four seats in Palmerston (Drysdale), while the CLP holds two seats in Palmerston (Brennan and Spillett) and an ex-Labor now-independent MLA (Mark Turner) holds the seat of Blain. However this does not mean the CLP will never win any seats in Darwin: I highly expect them to pick up Port Darwin and likely one or two other Darwin seats (namely Fannie Bay and Fong Lim) as well as likely one of the other Palmerston-based seats (Blain and/or Drysdale). Remember though once upon a time Chief Minister Natasha Fyles’ seat of Nightcliff in northern Darwin, although now a very safe Labor seat, was actually held by an independent from 1974-1983 and by the CLP from 1983 right up until 2001, when Labor won it and has held it ever since (Jane Aagard from 2001-2012, Natasha Fyles from 2012-present). Things have changed (though the CLP still remains strong in Alice Springs and Katherine like it has been since the NT was given self government).

To run Jacinta price or to not. Perhaps the best idea would be run someone else and soften up the seat. Then run Jacinta once they have the seat and that person retires as in the senate she’s guaranteed a seat.

I’d have more respect for Price if she ran for a seat that wasn’t safe. But she won’t, because she’s on the same gravy train that she accused Yes advocates of being on.

I don’t think Price can even make significant inroads into the Indigenous population as voters don’t focus on the race of politicians. You can see this in the US South where you can have a Republican candidate being African American and a Democratic Candidate being White yet the vote remains similar with the overwhelming majority of Blacks voting for the White Democrat over Black Republican and Vice Versa which is evident from Tim Scott in South Carolina.

I highly doubt Jacinta Price would give up her safe Senate seat to run in a marginal Labor-held House seat. She’d be risking her political career.

At the 2020 NT general election, the Country Liberals won 53.6% of the TPP vote in regional and remote parts of the Territory (against Labor’s 46.4%, a swing of +7.5 to the CLP), which meant that if the Territory election was the federal election then Lingiari would’ve been gained by the CLP from Labor on a 3.6% margin.

On primaries, the CLP would’ve had 32.7% of the vote while Labor would’ve had 32.1%, if my calculations are correct. The reason the conservative vote is benefitted from preferences here when normally it is a liability, is because of the reason that preferences normally flow to the progressives: the Greens. The Greens have a higher vote than any other minor party in Australia but the NT has the weakest Greens vote in Australia on the state/territory level due to the Greens not running in many seats. The Territory Alliance party received over 12% of votes at the Territory election which mostly flowed to the CLP, allowing them to win Katherine and to come close in many seats, such as Blain. On the federal level, however, the Greens’ weakest jurisdiction is actually New South Wales.

The libs released a list of seats they plan to target at the next election. Noticeably Lingiari was not on there. Very weird due to the low margin, and it being a rural seat. Perhaps the Libs think personal vote is worth a lot here or are worried about increase in enrolment from the voice (turnout was down in the voice election though). I’m going to have to assume it was just forgotten as they listed the seats by states and it was the only Labor seat under 4% not mentioned.

@technically not a state seat. The libs will be bouyed by the recent poll of the next territory election. A clp win at territory level could help their chances especially if their is a strong anti Labor trend. Poll put Labor vote at just 19%

Given this and Solomon are being redistributed before the election should these guides not be released until after the reditribution as was NSW Vic are?

John whilst the NT will undergo a redistribution, there is no guarantee it will be finalised in time. Unlike the ones for NSW, Victoria and WA which must be completed before an election can be held, the NT one can be ‘paused’ if an election is called and then restarted afterwards since it involves no change in the seat allocation.

I can’t see the NT redistribution being completed before the election. In fact I think the AEC will be able to postpone it?

Ben, the redistribution will not be postponed but it will be paused similar to what happened prior to the 2016 election.

For that case, they opened up suggestions and comments but then held off on making the decision until after the election.

Given that it’s only two division s and the govt looks to be going full term they should have it done by may 2025

You’d think that they’d be able to get the Northern Territory done pretty quickly. They only need a minimum of 12 weeks for both comment periods and this redistribution is only going to be a simple border change somewhere in Palmerston. However, it looks like the last one took a year to complete, so perhaps they just run to the same timetable as they would for NSW/Vic/etc.

@angas unless the govts electoral fortunes change drastically over the holidays the election won’t be held until May 25

The results here look pretty normal, a popular incumbent retires and a big swing because of it. But if you look at the results on a smaller level a lot of weird trends happened here.

Alice Springs: 1% swing against Labor
Darwin areas: 0.8% to Labor
Katherine: 0.4% swing against Labor
Pre-polls: 1.1% to Labor

It was only really the remote polling booths that swung 6.9% against Labor which caused the seat to become marginal, as well as the 10.4% swing in ‘other’ votes. Katherine and Alice Springs in particular have swung about 5% to Labor since 2007.

You’d think Marion Scrymgour’s personal vote should be able to improve Labor’s vote in the remote communities to allow them to win the seat in 2025. Labor got 87.62% in the remote communities in 2007, big difference from the 69.5% they got last election.

@Drake Alice Springs and Katherine are very CLP-voting areas.

And also, yes, there does seem to be a trend in remote Indigenous communities in the bush where they’re starting to abandon Labor for the Coalition. It’s happening all around the country.

Let’s have a look at Leichhardt in Far North Queensland for example. It’s a marginal LNP seat held by Warren Entsch, a popular MP who is a member of the Moderate faction of the Liberal Party. Leichhardt stretches from Cairns all the way up to the Cape York Peninsula and the Torres Strait Islands. There are some White towns up there as well as many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, as well as a significant Papuan minority.

In Leichhardt, there was a very small swing against the LNP on a TPP measure in 2022, but if you look closely at the booth results you’ll notice something. All the Indigenous communities swung heavily to the LNP. Here’s what it looked like (the LNP TPP is shown with the swing in brackets):

Bamaga: 49.65% (+16.89%)
Coen: 64.56% (+15.74%)
Horn Island: 39.16% (+3.70%)
Kowanyama: 71.89% (+30.71%)
Lockhart River: 54.70% (+20.37%)
Pormpuraaw: 56.09% (+32.62%)
Thursday Island: 37.32% (+5.76%)
Thursday Island PPVC: 38.80% (–0.68%)

And then in the remote mobile teams in Leichhardt:

RMT 1: 50.32% (+18.24%)
RMT 2: 52.12% (+20.04%)
RMT 3: 46.46% (+14.37%)
RMT 4: 60.14% (+28.10%)
RMT 5: 61.67% (+30.00%)

I’ll analyse more booths from Indigenous communities around Australia in the morning.

This will fall the clp on election night

@NP I noticed those booths in Leichhardt too. Found a pretty noticeable swing away from Labor with polling booths in areas with large amount of Aboriginals

ALP support in remote polling booths in Lingiari, swing to Labor in brackets. Interesting the increases don’t really follow much of a pattern.

2007: 87.6%
2010: 59.5% (-28.1%)
2013: 61.3% (1.8%)
2016: 70.1% (8.8%)
2019: 76.4% (6.3%)
2022: 69.5% (-6.9%)

But very interestingly a pretty similar result in the Cape York booths in Leichhardt.

2007: 70%
2010: 52.6% (-17.4%)
2013: 61.1% (8.5%)
2016: 56.6% (-4.5%)
2019: 60.5% (3.9%)
2022: 47.3% (-13.2%)

You can see a pretty similar pattern with 2007 being an amazing result, massive swing in 2010, before a slight recovery in 2013. Point being that Aboriginal voters can swing wildly in different directions in certain elections, sometimes completely different to the rest of the country. For all we know these areas could swing wildly back to Labor in 2025.

Warren Entsch is a popular member in Leichardt so with him retiring the indigenous vote may be up for grabs.

-@nimalan I think his retirement was targeted and the libs would have run the numbers to make sure they’ll hold the seat they’re coming from opposition so they should hold. This might be an ideal seat to run Jacinta price if she wants to run in the HoR

2007 were due to John Howard’s hardline Indigenous Policies so it is likely Indigenous Communities might swing back to Labor in 2025 due to LNP opposition to The Voice Referendum and the possibility that the LNP may go hardline on Indigenous policies from the result.

The only issues is that the Whites that live in NT are supportive of hardline Indigenous policies due to social issues like crime which might have been a factor with a No vote for the Voice in Lingiari and might help swing to CLP in 2025.

@Nimalan, it wasn’t just Leichhardt. It happened across the country.

@Marh it was actually Indigenous elders who recommended the Howard government’s policies.

In the rural seat of Parkes in NSW, a very safe Nationals seat, Indigenous communities swung heavily to the Nationals, with sitting MP Mark Coulton being easily re-elected with a small swing to him. But the Indigenous communities heavily swung to the Nationals.

This was the Nationals TPP and swing in Indigenous communities in Parkes:

Brewarrina: 62.67% (+17.34%)
Goodooga: 70.00% (+16.99%)
Wilcannia: 53.69% (+9.61%)

All the RMTs in Parkes were won by the Nationals in both 2022 and 2019 by very large margins, though I’m not sure if Indigenous people in western NSW are the main people who vote at RMTs unlike in the Outback and northern Australia.

Now, here’s something interesting. The No vote was actually quite strong in these Indigenous communities. Here’s what the No vote was in those three towns:

Brewarrina: 65.70%
Goodooga: 38.16%
Wilcannia: 60.76%

Plus all the RMTs had strong No majorities.

Parkes actually had the highest No vote in all of NSW, with 78.84% of the electorate voting No (Goodooga was the only booth that returned a majority Yes vote). The Nationals won 66.91% of the two-party-preferred vote in Parkes in 2022.

Looking at those Indiginous Communities various factors might had influenced the Voice results.
– A higher proportion of whites living in Brewarrina and Wilcannia alongside Indigenous traditionally low turnout and registration (afterall a younger average age means children can’t vote)
– Brewarrina and Wilcannia are on a highway meaning other town voters could had voted there on the other hand Goodooga which is more isolated
– Also checked the ABS and it seems that Brewarrina and Wilcannia is surrounded by more populated rural locality (100-200) which are often older white conservative farmers unlike Goodooga which their rural locality is much less populated (50 or so people)

-Internal Local Indigenous issues might have also meant a higher No vote compared to other Indigenous Communities

Another thing I’ll mention about Parkes is that the Indigenous-Aboriginal Party won 5.01% of the primary vote in Parkes (10.03% in Brewarrina, 17.50% in Goodooga and 38.26% in Wilcannia, in fact they actually had the highest primary vote of any party in Wilcannia). 54.03% of Indigenous-Aboriginal Party voters preferenced the Nationals over Labor, whereas their preference flow to the Coalition nationwide and statewide was 47.71% (they only contested NSW seats).

This would be an interesting study actually: the voting patterns of Indigenous Australians.

I think local factors in 2022 might had played role here which led to Indigenous voting Nationals in the TPP. Whether that it is just a fluke or not will be seen in 2025.

Interesting article it seems that the Indigenous population has exceeded 1 million for the first time since European settlement. It was estimated that there were around 700,000-1.3 million indigenous people prior to settlement so the population may have finally replenished.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-25/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-population-data/104137944

@Nimalan I saw that the other day. It says almost 30% are under 14.

It’s interesting looking at the results by location and seeing the two different groups within this area often swing in completely different directions.

2004: Pretty much all booths swung towards Labor, despite the rest of the country + Solomon swinging to the Libs
2007: Labor get massive swing in the remote booths but Katherine/Alice Springs swing towards the Libs
2010: Massive swings against Labor in the remote booths, but swings to Labor in Darwin outskirts/Alice Springs + Katherine
2013: Swings against Labor in Darwin outskirts/Alice Springs + Katherine but swings too Labor in the remote polling booths
2016: Swings to Labor everywhere
2019: Swings against Labor in Darwin outskirts/Alice Springs + Katherine but swings too Labor in the remote polling booths
2022: No swing to Labor in Darwin outskirts/Alice Springs + Katherine but swings against Labor in the remote polling booths.

The reason the Libs have never won this seat is because they’ve never had both groups swing towards them. In 2010 they did well enough with the remote polling booths to win the seat, but were let down by very bad performances in Alice Springs + Katherine. The way Aboriginal majority polling booths are often completely at odds with the rest of the seat and the country which makes it very hard to predict.

It’s also not completely true that Aboriginal majority booths are trending towards the right. Using the remote polling booths within this seat the best->worst results to Labor in this seat are 2007>2004>2019>2016>2022>2013>2010. It’s not a clear pattern and Labor only did .6% worse in the remote booths than 2016.

@Drake, I wonder if the pattern is going to repeat again with Alice Springs/Darwin outskirts/Katherine swinging towards CLP but Remotes swinging back to Labor given the issues the crime and Post-Voice defeat?

@ Drake/Marh
I think it very hard to get a single mood in this seat i think White residents in Katherine/Alice Springs who will be more affluent and Cattle Ranch Owners will have a different set of issues than Aboriginal residents which is why i am reluctant to predict this seat.

@Marh

I can definitely see it happening. Issues with crime making voters in Alice Springs swing towards the Libs.

Increased Aboriginal enrolment from Voice + new personal vote which can be worth a lot in these remote communities.

Was the massive swing against Labor in remote communities in 2010 a rejection of the NT intervention act? Could explain why communities that were more supportive of it, Alice Springs + Katherine swung towards Labor. As time has gone by Labor has distanced themself from the NT intervention and improved their polling with Aboriginal voters.

@Drake, it started with the 2007 Intervention from John Howard explaining the 2007 results but Rudd/Gillard retained them hence the 2010 results. The post Voice results might have made it more likely that Dutton and Price would reinstate many past hard-line policies.

Jacinta Price for instance is actually unpopular in remote communities (even in Price’s ancestral town of Yuendumu) but it is outskirts of Darwin and Alice Springs that helped elected her to the senate

@Marh that’s not true. Jacinta Price is actually popular nationwide as she is an excellent speaker. You also have to remember that Alice Springs and Katherine, while being majority European, are home to large Aboriginal populations.

I hate these left narratives where people assume that a conservative from a minority group is a racist and a race traitor.

@drake whilst true the seat up until 2022 and it’s predecessor the entire nt when it was in one division was held by Warren Snowden who had a huge personal vote and was almost lost a few times. The act the coalition got a swing to them in a year when they lost govt and went against the trend and the fact that the clp does well here when in opposition tells me that this will flip coe 2025 the redistribution will give Labor a buffer if it’s completed but even that won’t save them. Labor are about to be punished in the nt state and federally.

@marh Labor tend to do well in remote communities because they tend to hand out freebies and let them basically run them how they want. This is why they do surprising well in Leichhardt and cook in Qld. And those two may buck trend in upcomig elections.

@np true but there is a degree of hostility towards her in those communities that are run on the old tribal ways. It has also something to do with the fact she’s a woman. Her grandmother was recently assaulted drin the referendum due to trying to support her

Oh and @Drake you’re wrong about something. All of the areas swung to the CLP in 2022. Alice Springs and Katherine did because Warren Snowdon had a big personal vote in Lingiari which even extended to CLP-voting areas and there was a huge swing to the CLP in remote communities.

@nether portal several seats both federally and at a state level are flipped due to a personal vote for the local member. Lismore in NSW is Labor due to the local members vote and I imagine once she retires the Nat’s may be able to regain that. Richmond at a federal is the same while the labor party has the seat without that personal vote of the member it would be a green vs Nat contest which is why I think libs should put up a candidate as well. While at a state level in Ballina it’s a green seat it’s mainly Byron bay that gives the edge. Given that both tweed and Ballina are more favourable to the Nat’s the coalition should have a shot a Richmond once she retires. On the other side of the fence Gareth ward was elected as a liberal ina Labor heavy area and now that he’s an ind the 2pp does favor Labor. The same for Leichhardt without Warren entsch Labor may win that seat but that’s a little harder to read since they haven’t had an election without him in the contest for 30 years except for one term during rudd where the Labor won it so that ones a little harder to read but now the rudd and entsch factors are gone we can get a proper read on it.

Per Ben’s analysis:

Alice Springs swung 1% to the Libs
Darwin Outskirts .8% to Labor
Katherine .4% to the Libs
Prepoll 1.1% to Labor
Remote booths 6.9% to the Libs

It’s clear the swing last time was mainly driven by the remote polling booths.

2022 was the time for a change of mp if that was to
Occur. Now there will probably be an entrenchment of the sitting alp mp

The North Coast is urbanising this does not
Benefit the nats

@mick agree to disagree

Hece my case for running a liberal canddiate