LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Warren Entsch, since 2010. Previously member for Leichhardt 1996-2007.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Leichhardt covers the Cape York Peninsula and the east coast of Australia as far south as Cairns. While the seat covers a vast area, most of the population is in the area around Cairns.
History
Leichhardt was first created at the 1949 election. Apart from the 2010 and 2022 elections, the seat has been won by the party of government at every election since 1972.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Tom Gilmore of the Country Party, who was defeated by the ALP’s Henry Bruce in 1951. Bruce held the seat until his death shortly before the 1958 election, when he was succeeded by Bill Fulton.
Fulton held the seat until his retirement at the 1975 election. David Thomson won the seat for the National Country Party in 1975, and served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1979 until his defeat at the 1983 election, when John Gayler (ALP) won the seat.
Gaylor held the seat until his retirement in 1993, and the ALP’s Peter Dodd held the seat for one term before he was defeated by Warren Entsch (LIB) in 1996.
Entsch held the seat for eleven years before retiring in 2007, when a swing of over 14% gave the seat to the ALP’s Jim Turnour.
In 2010, Entsch returned to politics and won his seat back off Turnour with a swing of 8.6%, and he has been re-elected four more times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Warren Entsch is not running for re-election.
- Robert Hicks (One Nation)
- Phillip Musumeci (Greens)
- Jeremy Neal (Liberal National)
- Les Searle (Family First)
- Matt Smith (Labor)
Assessment
Leichhardt is a marginal seat. Warren Entsch’s retirement could boost Labor’s chances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 33,652 | 36.7 | -0.9 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 25,312 | 27.6 | -1.2 |
| Phillip Musumeci | Greens | 9,143 | 10.0 | -0.4 |
| Geena Court | One Nation | 6,822 | 7.4 | +1.4 |
| Rod Jensen | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,166 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
| Pat O’Shane | Socialist Alliance | 3,729 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Daniel Hannagan | United Australia | 3,593 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
| Silvia Mogorovich | Informed Medical Options | 1,641 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Susanne Bayly | Animal Justice | 1,253 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Adam Cropp | Fusion | 930 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Paul Roe | Federation Party | 466 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 6,715 | 6.8 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 49,010 | 53.4 | -0.7 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 42,697 | 46.6 | +0.7 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Cairns council area have been split into north, central and south Cairns. Polling places in the Douglas council area have been grouped, and the remainder have been grouped as Cape York. Most of the population is in Cairns.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of five areas, ranging from 50.1% in northern Cairns to 56.8% in Douglas. Labor won 52% in central Cairns. The LNP also polled about 55% of the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.6% in Cape York to 12.6% in central Cairns.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cairns North | 13.1 | 50.1 | 11,591 | 12.6 |
| Cairns Central | 12.6 | 48.0 | 9,708 | 10.6 |
| Cairns South | 9.4 | 53.2 | 5,895 | 6.4 |
| Cape York | 5.6 | 52.7 | 3,592 | 3.9 |
| Douglas | 10.8 | 56.8 | 3,006 | 3.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 54.7 | 42,301 | 46.1 |
| Other votes | 9.1 | 55.4 | 15,614 | 17.0 |
Election results in Leichhardt at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:
* 100% of Barron River
* 100% of Cairns
* 70% of Cook
* 60% of Mulgrave
People sometimes ask me “what is the blackest town in Australia?”. Well, I’ve found an island here that would be a contender for the least white place in Australia. I knew about this island before but I never knew the exact demographics of it.
Saibai Island is an island in the Torres Strait regarded as the second-most northern inhabited settlement in Australia (only Boigu Island is more but it is surprisingly whiter than Saibai Island). Having had a look in Google Maps Street View you can actually see the village of Sigadabaru in PNG in the distance from the island. It is also the closest part of Australia to PNG and the airport there does charter flights to Daru in PNG.
Cultural diversity:
* Indigenous status: 85.6% Indigenous, 10.3% non-Indigenous
* Ancestry: 74.7% Torres Strait Islander, 15.0% Papua New Guinean, 3.5% Aboriginal, 2.1% English
* Country of birth: 81.2% Australia, 10.9% Papua New Guinea
* Country of birth of father: 72.4% Australia, 24.1% Papua New Guinea
* Country of birth of mother: 75.0% Australia, 18.2% Papua New Guinea
* Religion: 84.2% Christianity (40.0% Anglican, 11.5% none, 7.1% Catholic, 6.8% “Christian” (nfd))
* Language spoken at home: 96.1% languages other than English, 6.5% English only (43.8% Torres Strait Creole (Yumplatok), 35.3% Kala Lagaw Ya, 6.5% English, 4.4% “Australian Indigenous languages” (nfd), 4.1% “Creole” (nfd), 1.8% “Aboriginal English” (so described))
Some other general stats about the island:
* Population: 340 (69 families)
* Weekly household income: $922 ($0 mortgage repayments)
* Weekly rent: $115
* Gender: 53.7% male, 46.3% female
* Median age: 25
* Marriage: 66.0% never married, 27.3% married, 2.4% separated, 2.4% widowed, 0.0% divorced (59.2% not married, 25.1% registered marriage, 15.6% de facto marriage)
* Work: 63.2% not in the labour force, 27.8% in the labour force (44.8% full-time, 43.1% unemployed, 19.0% part-time, 5.2% away from work)
* Long-term health conditions: 66.8% none, 9.7% diabetes, 4.1% asthma, 1.8% cancer, 0.9% mental health, 2.6% other
* Motor vehicles: 55.6% none, 30.6% one, 5.6% two, 4.2% three or more
With 96.1% of the population speaking a language other than English at home I think Saibai Island has the lowest percentage of native English speakers in Australia as well as being probably the most Papuan place in Australia and only 2.1% of the population has English ancestry. The only countries people are born in there are Australia and PNG, so literally nobody from any other continent has migrated there, which is strange since usually there’s at least one family from Asia or Europe that migrates to a remote area.
Labor has announced $7.2 billion to upgrade the Bruce Highway (which extends all the way from Brisbane to Cairns). I wonder if this means that they think Leichhardt is a reasonable chance?
The only other regional marginal this project would impact is Flynn, which despite the similar margin seems far less likely to flip to Labor.
@angas i think they are just trying to sure up votes in QLD. the only seat Labor has any chance of winning is Bullwinkel or maybe Sturt. other then that they are only playing defensive.
@Angas The Bruce Highway ends in Cairns
@angas from what im hereing labor is playing defensive and arent actually hoping to win seats with the exceptin of Bullwinkel and possibly Sturt
@Scart Indeed it does, but it is a vital transportation link, often disrupted in the wet season. The inland alternatives are little better.
I doubt this funding announcement moves the needle much towards Labor, if at all. It is a fair question to ask “Why didn’t you do this earlier in your term?” (Especially with a Labor state government previously in place).
Today’s announcement was made in Gympie. The proposed upgrades cover the following:
Maryborough to Benaraby (Divisions of Wide Bay, Hinkler & Flynn).
Rockhampton to St Lawrence (Capricornia)
Bowen to Townsville (Dawson)
Ingham to Innisfail (Kennedy)
The announcement was made in Gympie following the recent completion of the final section of the Cooroy to Curra upgrade. A project which was commenced in 2009 under the Rudd Government. The final section was the Gympie bypass.
Real talk,
That is an immensely stupid question to ask. Would anyone be that foolish?
@Real Talk I know that well enough, I live in Townsville myself
Minus Warren this seat is much stronger for Labor.. 2007 more than a double digit swing
@Mick doubtful 2007 can be attributed to both minus Entsch and the Ruddslide particularly in his home state of QLD. I think Liberal marginal retain due to Labor being in govt federally and Duttons hime state plus honeymoon of the state govt. But a small swing to Labor.
2022 Flashback: For those looking at unusual results, Leichhardt delivered in spades. One is mentioned in the 2022 Archived Seat profile (Informal winning and then Socialist Alliance second) but one that I had forgotten about until reviewing data is Bamaga…
Socialist Alliance won this booth with 26.71% beating ALP (26.24%) and LNP (25.53%).
My two cents: LNP Retain
@Politics Obsessed the only reason the Socialist Alliance won Bamaga was from donkey voting. That’s why they polled so highly in the Indigenous communities. But the LNP were above Labor so the donkey voters actually put the LNP above Labor.
Don’t think many people donkey vote due to ignorance. If the retiring mp is as popular as I suspect he could be… then Labor has a good chance. Also this seat has a different dynamic as mining is not that important. Cf Capricornia Dawson and Flynn
@Mick Quinlivan it’s not due to ignorance it’s the fact that many people in remote communities simply don’t know how to vote or who to vote for. Some have even admitted that they blindly vote for Labor because that’s what they’ve always done.
Warren Entsch actually did well in this regard. He made himself not only well-known but likeable among people in the least politically-informed areas in the country. Entsch actually won a majority of the TPP in most Indigenous communities, not so much on Thursday Island but especially in the mainland Aboriginal communities that swung massively to the LNP.
He is a popular MP but on state figures this would be an LNP seat, even with no Entsch on the state level. So while Labor are rightfully putting money into their campaign here, I don’t think they’ll win it given that it’s not a good time for Labor.
What’s interesting with Entsch though is that in 2004 he was one of only two Liberals that the old Family First party preferenced against. The other was Ingrid Tall, a lesbian doctor who contested the marginal seat of Brisbane. The reason: they both had views on LGBT issues that were at the time considered quite progressive (Entsch supported civil unions (and later became a very prominent supporter of gay marriage) and Tall supported gay marriage).
I think LIB retain given the current political climate, but if Entsch retired last time Labor probably would’ve won
The climate in country areas is much better now than was the case in the qld election.
Entsch retired before at the 2007 election
Combined with the Rudd slide there was I think a 14% swing against the lnp.
Again you have someone who was very popular.. half that swing.?
Labor has a chance here
A very small chance. 2007 was a good year for Labor especially in qld because of rudd being the local boy from qld and a long term lnp govt on its way out a popular retiring local member. This time the only factor in play for Labor is entsch is gone. If he were still running it would be status quo.
Entsch retired in 2007 and was brought out of retirement in 2010 to win back the seat. At both elections, respectively, the 2PP swing to Labor and away from Labor, were above the state average. Maybe there was a personal vote factor at those times. I can’t tell for sure how much his loss of personal vote will affect the result in 2025.
Labor appears somewhat hopeful, otherwise, they wouldn’t have preselected Matt Smith so early. The result might tighten but it’s a tough gig for Labor.
Candidate for socialist alliance in 2022 was reasonably high profile – particularly in the Indigenous community which is why she would have got a decent amount of votes and won a boot