LNP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Warren Entsch, since 2010. Previously member for Leichhardt 1996-2007.
Geography
Far North Queensland. Leichhardt covers the Cape York Peninsula and the east coast of Australia as far south as Cairns. While the seat covers a vast area, most of the population is in the area around Cairns.
History
Leichhardt was first created at the 1949 election. Apart from the 2010 and 2022 elections, the seat has been won by the party of government at every election since 1972.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Tom Gilmore of the Country Party, who was defeated by the ALP’s Henry Bruce in 1951. Bruce held the seat until his death shortly before the 1958 election, when he was succeeded by Bill Fulton.
Fulton held the seat until his retirement at the 1975 election. David Thomson won the seat for the National Country Party in 1975, and served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1979 until his defeat at the 1983 election, when John Gayler (ALP) won the seat.
Gaylor held the seat until his retirement in 1993, and the ALP’s Peter Dodd held the seat for one term before he was defeated by Warren Entsch (LIB) in 1996.
Entsch held the seat for eleven years before retiring in 2007, when a swing of over 14% gave the seat to the ALP’s Jim Turnour.
In 2010, Entsch returned to politics and won his seat back off Turnour with a swing of 8.6%, and he has been re-elected four more times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Warren Entsch is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Leichhardt is a marginal seat. Warren Entsch’s retirement could boost Labor’s chances.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 33,652 | 36.7 | -0.9 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 25,312 | 27.6 | -1.2 |
| Phillip Musumeci | Greens | 9,143 | 10.0 | -0.4 |
| Geena Court | One Nation | 6,822 | 7.4 | +1.4 |
| Rod Jensen | Katter’s Australian Party | 5,166 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
| Pat O’Shane | Socialist Alliance | 3,729 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| Daniel Hannagan | United Australia | 3,593 | 3.9 | -0.1 |
| Silvia Mogorovich | Informed Medical Options | 1,641 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
| Susanne Bayly | Animal Justice | 1,253 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Adam Cropp | Fusion | 930 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Paul Roe | Federation Party | 466 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 6,715 | 6.8 | +0.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Warren Entsch | Liberal National | 49,010 | 53.4 | -0.7 |
| Elida Faith | Labor | 42,697 | 46.6 | +0.7 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in the Cairns council area have been split into north, central and south Cairns. Polling places in the Douglas council area have been grouped, and the remainder have been grouped as Cape York. Most of the population is in Cairns.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of five areas, ranging from 50.1% in northern Cairns to 56.8% in Douglas. Labor won 52% in central Cairns. The LNP also polled about 55% of the pre-poll and other votes.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 5.6% in Cape York to 12.6% in central Cairns.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Cairns North | 13.1 | 50.1 | 11,591 | 12.6 |
| Cairns Central | 12.6 | 48.0 | 9,708 | 10.6 |
| Cairns South | 9.4 | 53.2 | 5,895 | 6.4 |
| Cape York | 5.6 | 52.7 | 3,592 | 3.9 |
| Douglas | 10.8 | 56.8 | 3,006 | 3.3 |
| Pre-poll | 9.2 | 54.7 | 42,301 | 46.1 |
| Other votes | 9.1 | 55.4 | 15,614 | 17.0 |
Election results in Leichhardt at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:
* 100% of Barron River
* 100% of Cairns
* 70% of Cook
* 60% of Mulgrave
People sometimes ask me “what is the blackest town in Australia?”. Well, I’ve found an island here that would be a contender for the least white place in Australia. I knew about this island before but I never knew the exact demographics of it.
Saibai Island is an island in the Torres Strait regarded as the second-most northern inhabited settlement in Australia (only Boigu Island is more but it is surprisingly whiter than Saibai Island). Having had a look in Google Maps Street View you can actually see the village of Sigadabaru in PNG in the distance from the island. It is also the closest part of Australia to PNG and the airport there does charter flights to Daru in PNG.
Cultural diversity:
* Indigenous status: 85.6% Indigenous, 10.3% non-Indigenous
* Ancestry: 74.7% Torres Strait Islander, 15.0% Papua New Guinean, 3.5% Aboriginal, 2.1% English
* Country of birth: 81.2% Australia, 10.9% Papua New Guinea
* Country of birth of father: 72.4% Australia, 24.1% Papua New Guinea
* Country of birth of mother: 75.0% Australia, 18.2% Papua New Guinea
* Religion: 84.2% Christianity (40.0% Anglican, 11.5% none, 7.1% Catholic, 6.8% “Christian” (nfd))
* Language spoken at home: 96.1% languages other than English, 6.5% English only (43.8% Torres Strait Creole (Yumplatok), 35.3% Kala Lagaw Ya, 6.5% English, 4.4% “Australian Indigenous languages” (nfd), 4.1% “Creole” (nfd), 1.8% “Aboriginal English” (so described))
Some other general stats about the island:
* Population: 340 (69 families)
* Weekly household income: $922 ($0 mortgage repayments)
* Weekly rent: $115
* Gender: 53.7% male, 46.3% female
* Median age: 25
* Marriage: 66.0% never married, 27.3% married, 2.4% separated, 2.4% widowed, 0.0% divorced (59.2% not married, 25.1% registered marriage, 15.6% de facto marriage)
* Work: 63.2% not in the labour force, 27.8% in the labour force (44.8% full-time, 43.1% unemployed, 19.0% part-time, 5.2% away from work)
* Long-term health conditions: 66.8% none, 9.7% diabetes, 4.1% asthma, 1.8% cancer, 0.9% mental health, 2.6% other
* Motor vehicles: 55.6% none, 30.6% one, 5.6% two, 4.2% three or more
With 96.1% of the population speaking a language other than English at home I think Saibai Island has the lowest percentage of native English speakers in Australia as well as being probably the most Papuan place in Australia and only 2.1% of the population has English ancestry. The only countries people are born in there are Australia and PNG, so literally nobody from any other continent has migrated there, which is strange since usually there’s at least one family from Asia or Europe that migrates to a remote area.
Labor has announced $7.2 billion to upgrade the Bruce Highway (which extends all the way from Brisbane to Cairns). I wonder if this means that they think Leichhardt is a reasonable chance?
The only other regional marginal this project would impact is Flynn, which despite the similar margin seems far less likely to flip to Labor.
@angas i think they are just trying to sure up votes in QLD. the only seat Labor has any chance of winning is Bullwinkel or maybe Sturt. other then that they are only playing defensive.
@Angas The Bruce Highway ends in Cairns
@angas from what im hereing labor is playing defensive and arent actually hoping to win seats with the exceptin of Bullwinkel and possibly Sturt
@Scart Indeed it does, but it is a vital transportation link, often disrupted in the wet season. The inland alternatives are little better.
I doubt this funding announcement moves the needle much towards Labor, if at all. It is a fair question to ask “Why didn’t you do this earlier in your term?” (Especially with a Labor state government previously in place).
Today’s announcement was made in Gympie. The proposed upgrades cover the following:
Maryborough to Benaraby (Divisions of Wide Bay, Hinkler & Flynn).
Rockhampton to St Lawrence (Capricornia)
Bowen to Townsville (Dawson)
Ingham to Innisfail (Kennedy)
The announcement was made in Gympie following the recent completion of the final section of the Cooroy to Curra upgrade. A project which was commenced in 2009 under the Rudd Government. The final section was the Gympie bypass.
Real talk,
That is an immensely stupid question to ask. Would anyone be that foolish?
@Real Talk I know that well enough, I live in Townsville myself
Minus Warren this seat is much stronger for Labor.. 2007 more than a double digit swing
@Mick doubtful 2007 can be attributed to both minus Entsch and the Ruddslide particularly in his home state of QLD. I think Liberal marginal retain due to Labor being in govt federally and Duttons hime state plus honeymoon of the state govt. But a small swing to Labor.
2022 Flashback: For those looking at unusual results, Leichhardt delivered in spades. One is mentioned in the 2022 Archived Seat profile (Informal winning and then Socialist Alliance second) but one that I had forgotten about until reviewing data is Bamaga…
Socialist Alliance won this booth with 26.71% beating ALP (26.24%) and LNP (25.53%).
My two cents: LNP Retain
@Politics Obsessed the only reason the Socialist Alliance won Bamaga was from donkey voting. That’s why they polled so highly in the Indigenous communities. But the LNP were above Labor so the donkey voters actually put the LNP above Labor.
Don’t think many people donkey vote due to ignorance. If the retiring mp is as popular as I suspect he could be… then Labor has a good chance. Also this seat has a different dynamic as mining is not that important. Cf Capricornia Dawson and Flynn
@Mick Quinlivan it’s not due to ignorance it’s the fact that many people in remote communities simply don’t know how to vote or who to vote for. Some have even admitted that they blindly vote for Labor because that’s what they’ve always done.
Warren Entsch actually did well in this regard. He made himself not only well-known but likeable among people in the least politically-informed areas in the country. Entsch actually won a majority of the TPP in most Indigenous communities, not so much on Thursday Island but especially in the mainland Aboriginal communities that swung massively to the LNP.
He is a popular MP but on state figures this would be an LNP seat, even with no Entsch on the state level. So while Labor are rightfully putting money into their campaign here, I don’t think they’ll win it given that it’s not a good time for Labor.
What’s interesting with Entsch though is that in 2004 he was one of only two Liberals that the old Family First party preferenced against. The other was Ingrid Tall, a lesbian doctor who contested the marginal seat of Brisbane. The reason: they both had views on LGBT issues that were at the time considered quite progressive (Entsch supported civil unions (and later became a very prominent supporter of gay marriage) and Tall supported gay marriage).
I think LIB retain given the current political climate, but if Entsch retired last time Labor probably would’ve won
The climate in country areas is much better now than was the case in the qld election.
Entsch retired before at the 2007 election
Combined with the Rudd slide there was I think a 14% swing against the lnp.
Again you have someone who was very popular.. half that swing.?
Labor has a chance here
A very small chance. 2007 was a good year for Labor especially in qld because of rudd being the local boy from qld and a long term lnp govt on its way out a popular retiring local member. This time the only factor in play for Labor is entsch is gone. If he were still running it would be status quo.
Entsch retired in 2007 and was brought out of retirement in 2010 to win back the seat. At both elections, respectively, the 2PP swing to Labor and away from Labor, were above the state average. Maybe there was a personal vote factor at those times. I can’t tell for sure how much his loss of personal vote will affect the result in 2025.
Labor appears somewhat hopeful, otherwise, they wouldn’t have preselected Matt Smith so early. The result might tighten but it’s a tough gig for Labor.
Candidate for socialist alliance in 2022 was reasonably high profile – particularly in the Indigenous community which is why she would have got a decent amount of votes and won a boot
The LNP candidate is getting some press coverage for some questionable comments on social media in recent times
COVID views aside, the real red flag here—if I were voting in Leichhardt—would be the full-throttle, uncritical embrace of Trumpism on display. For a seat that’s backed Warren Entsch for nearly 30 years, mostly on a diet of centre-right moderation, this feels like switching from decaf to moonshine. I can’t imagine the old Entsch base is thrilled to see their new standard bearer cosplaying as a MAGA surrogate.
Where on earth are all these rogue LNP candidates coming from? Someone needs to check their vetting process as they always seem to get a fair share of cookers trying to win seats.
@Tommo9 – what makes you think that these “rogue” candidates are not representative of the current LNP branch members?
@bazza I don’t know but from my experience, MAGA-ite hard right nutjobs doesn’t scream representative of the small-l liberal brand that the Liberals pretend to portray these days.
Would Neal’s comments make Leichhardt a more competitive race in the election?
Doubtful I think he will still win anyway especially since he’s out campaign with entsch
Alp probable gain
@Tommo9 – I don’t think the current incarnation of the LNP has pretended to be anything but MAGA-ite hard right nutjobs. They have been actively trying to run out small-l liberals from the party for the past couple of decades. Candidates with views like Neal would probably be a fair representation of many of their membership
Albanese campaigning in this seat today. The Labor candidate is a former NBL player with Cairns
Alp nsw could be same number not a alp
Mp defeated…. Fowler?
Tas no change
Nt no change
Sa. Maybe alp plus 1….Sturt
Wa.. .. no change
Qld best alp no change possible
Vic…. maybe alp drops a couple
Libs in danger Wannon & calare Bradfield
Nats in Danger Cowper and Calre
A few weeks I would’ve said LIB retain but now I’m not so sure. This will probably be close
@mick confident as ever i see.
Whoops counted Calare twice
Didn’t count any possible changes in
The 3 green Brisbane seats.
What I have suggested… could see the libs and nats lose seats net.
Forgot Monash as well possible
Ind gain from liberal.
Stick outside chance of Labor majority
Ind chances
Calare
Bradfield
Wannon
Monash
Cowper
A bit off topic from the election but assuming there will be an expansion of seats in Parliament (bc I think any changes in next QLD redistribution will focus on SEQ), would there be a possibility there will be a new seat created entirely within Cairns rather than including areas like Cape York?
No, because Far North QLD, north of Cairns, is sparsely populated and hence the electorate would need to have some part of Cairns.
@Mick wishful thinking it will be a Labor minority govt. Coalition are not that in trouble that they will lose seats to labor. Libs will gain seats from labor but not enough to tip it to their favour. Most of the inds will flounder.
Lurking no cairns need to be split between Kennedy and leichardt or the division would be massive.
Labor are under threat in mcmahon bean Franklin and Fremantle too. Possibly in Watson (doubtful) Blaxland and Falwell from Muslim inds.boothby and Sturt will be status quo. Dai le will hold Fowler. Maybe Solomon. QLD libs will hold all their seats thanks to a popular premier/state govt.
Yes I acknowledge there is a lot of wishful thinking on my behalf but wishes do come true.
The election.will.be largely static from the 2022 result.
Labor has chances of winning Fowler and
Bennelong in nsw..+2
Minimising losses in Vic… say -3
Gaining a couple in qld +2
Gaining Sturt sa +1
If all this happens +2 still an absolute majority…. this is of course touch and go
Assume the liberals cannot defeat any teals or independents….a fair assumption
Liberal/ national party danger
Calare Cowper Wannon Monash
To independents
Labor will lose seats first term governments always do.
On the other hand, every seat Labor picks up equals two that the Coalition must win just to maintain the status quo. Given the list of winnable seats for the Coalition is skinny to begin with, a win in Leichhardt could be golden for the ALP.
@Darth Vader I’m sure you and John will be cheering this on so the Liberals can win because Labor’s the worst thing since sliced bread.
I agree with Real Talk. Labor might lose seats but the Coalition are also bound to lose seats, none of their current target seats are more winnable than some of their formerly heartland seats. Just because there’s independents in some Labor seats doesn’t make it more winnable for them either given that independents have been around for eons and only a few ever break through (by comparing the past tilts of independents in addition to today’s).
What I think:
McMahon, Bean, Franklin, Fremantle, Boothby – Should be Labor holds as long as they keep the ship steady.
Sturt could very well be one of the few Labor gains this time round.
Leichhardt was probably lean LNP before but this sort of shenanigans puts it in play.
Dai Le will hold Fowler, no problems with that. She’s suited to a tee in this seat.
As for Liberal gains, I’d stay with predicting: Gilmore, Lingiari, Paterson, McEwen, Bullwinkel, possibly Werriwa but the demographics living there could really throw a spanner into the works. Lyons is lineball as Susie Bower didn’t have the smoothest of runs this time and Rebecca White, whilst popular, makes Labor lose the incumbency advantage so it could go either way.
Tommo
Gilmore very hard but the rest aren’t certain.
Bennelong. Could be alp retain
Real talk maintaining the status quo means maintaining the same amount of seats so the liberals only need to gain one seat for every Labor seat to maintain the status quo. That said this seat is a wildcard the only time Labor won this in 30 years was in 2007 during a ruddslide and no entsch. Without entsch and no apparent landslide apparent in qld from the polls which actually show a swing to lnp it will be hard for labor to win here also lnp won the state seat of Cook in oct.
Not necessarily the coalition aren’t in govt so their loses will be few if any. I’d expect their challenges will come mostly from inds not labor. Fremantle is a wildcats hugest will need to draw enough support from Josh Wilson and get preferences from the libs. They will be the Kingmaker she won’t win without those. McMahon I can’t see anyone but Bowen winning as I think carbone has chickened out. But he might get a scare. Bean and Franklin if the teals make the 2cp Labor is gone. Because I think libs will preference against them. Boothby I can’t see the libs winning but you never know and I think in sa the federal vote has recovered enough. In regards to libs i think Blair and Hunter are in play due to the strong one nation vote. Along with the ones you mentioned i think Bennelong and Robertson are also in play. Also I think they can win a couple teals seats. Labor will also be without Jacqui Lambies preferences this time in Tasmania although so will Bridget archer. Tangey will be close too.overall I’d say Labor minority but that could be a very small minority or very deep.
This will likely be Bob Katters last election too.
The problem for labor is Clarence makes up over 55% of the seat where Brendan Blomeley is the mayor.
John, your knowledge of entry-level maths is superior to mine. Thanks for correcting me. I think I meant to say something like “for every seat Labor wins off the Coalition, that’s two they need to win back to be closer to government”. Alas. Not the first time I’ve typed something rash and pressed send before reading it back to myself.