Leichhardt – Australia 2025

With Entsch’s retirement, it’s a very possible ALP gain – but the LNP can hold on too, we’ll see. If the ALP sees their nationwide 2PP margin go up as seems likely at the moment, I suspect this seat is gone for the LNP but a lot can change between now and then obviously so take it with a grain of salt.

Agree this is a very possible ALP gain probably the most likely in QLD along with Bonner. This is differenet to other Regional QLD seats that Labor used to be competitive in due to fact that it is not dependent on agriculture or the resources industry it is mostly tourism along with the indigenous communities.

Most likely a labor gain here after warren entsch retirement. The coalition have hel this without him since 1983

@John

John I presume you made a typo? And meant to say the coalition haven’t held this seat without Warren Entsch standing since 1983 which is correct.

Labor held Leichhardt from 1983 – 1996 and 2007 – 2010 when Entsch briefly retired and didn’t stand in 2007. Entsch was first elected to parliament in 1996.

Yes. I’d say he retired in 2007 to avoid the Ruddalide

Also this should prolly return to bell whether the same as Eden-Monaro it was interrupted by the personal vote of a popular mp

We shall see what, if any, swings can be gained in Barron River, Cairns & Mulgrave next year to assess prospects of LNP withstanding Entsch retirement. Barron River is a State bellwether & Mulgrave is only interrupted by Curtis Pitt succeeding his father in 2012, so personal vote.

While I doubt he runs due to his mental health. If Pitt retires in October or if he losses his seat narrowly. Would he win this if he ran? I suspect he would be the strongest candidate for Labor here.

I think this is one of Labor’s best chances of picking a seat up particularly in QLD, without a state Labor government here next the voters will most likely have taken the majority of their anger out.

@Daniel T I wouldn’t think so, I think the LNP will retain this.

This (along with maybe Brisbane if dominoes fall the right way) is probably the only possible gain for Labor next year in Queensland. All the other regional seats are entrenched LNP territory, whereas without Warren Entsch’s personal vote it really is up for grabs given the population demographics up there. However if Queenslanders in the regions are still sulking about Labor by then then it will probably be a marginal LNP hold even if it’s an unremarkable low-profile nobody.

Would Labor try their luck with Elida Faith again after losing twice to Entsch last two elections?

@tommo because entsch is retiring

i think given labro ahve only won this once with kevin07 the local qld boy helping the qld vote and no entsch running and the fact labor is in govt not opposition liberals should retain here

Leichardt has actually moved towards Labor compared to the nation as a whole between 2004-2019. See link below. It is also different from other Regional QLD as it not really based on the resouces industry or agriculture.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47432

Is there an LNP candidate in Leichhardt yet?

@Redistributed not that I know of.

And if LNP win – does/should the new member sit with the Nats or Libs?

Should be Nats, the Libs are insolent at this point and their base have no principles whatsoever because of people like Peda Credlin and Murray on Sky News.

I would personally rather have a Nats prime minister at this point

@Nick the Liberals probably since Leichhardt includes Cairns.

@Daniel T Sky after Dark is more One Nation-aligned and supportive of right-wing populist, national conservatives such as Donald Trump in the US, Victor Orbán in Hungary, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Javier Milier in Argentina, etc. They always criticise the majority of the Coalition. They treat moderates like they’re Labor or the Greens.

I was watching one of their “Lefties Losing It” episodes the other day on YouTube and they praised Superwog (a funny, non-woke comedy duo from Sydney) for a part of their video where they mocked they/them pronouns. That video is a few months old now and Rita Panahi only just found it. That just shows how in touch they are with the modern world. But of course there’s worse “news” out there, like The Project (but that isn’t news).

@Nick the LNP has a practice where the MPs for specific seats sit in designated party rooms. All the MPs from Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Ipswich sit with the Liberals, while all the other MPs sit with the Nationals, with the only exceptions being the members for Groom and Leichhardt since although they aren’t entirely based in one city, most of the population in those seats live in Toowoomba and Cairns, respectively.

@Nether Portal

Matthew Guy said the Sky after Dark is like you said more like “the One Nation Party” than the Liberal party and described them as “dangerously politically stupid”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/02/matthew-guy-blames-media-faceless-leakers-for-2022-victoria-state-election-loss

@Nimalan exactly. Matthew Guy is 100% correct. They don’t stand for the Liberals, they stand for the fringe right.

Sky News’ opinion polling seems to be biased too. One of their polls showed a 16% swing against NSW Liberal Moderate and then-Treasurer Matt Kean on primaries in his seat of Hornsby at the 2023 state election, most of that going to One Nation and the Liberal Democrats, as well as polling that showed his approval rating as Energy Minister being mostly negative in Hornsby. While the poll still showed he would win the seat, Sky News referred to him as a “polarising figure among the Liberal base”. This is complete and utter bullshit.

https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/matt-kean-faces-16-per-cent-swing-against-him-in-his-seat-of-hornsby/video/f5b210df279dc726508a50b5feda57cc

@Nether P – however both Groom and Leichhardt have been National seats in the past.
Overall my point is that when you think of the membership base of the LNP the Nats should qualify for another electoral or Senate seat.

@Nick they don’t change it though. It goes by the most recent member prior to the 2008 merger of the Liberal and National Parties in Queensland.

Similar with the CLP in the Territory: if the CLP wins Solomon the member sits with the Liberals while if the CLP wins Lingiari the member sits with the Nationals, because Solomon is an urban seat based around Darwin and Palmerston while Lingiari covers the rest of the NT.

Nether, not always the case. Tina Macfarlane who was the CLP candidate for Solomon in 2022 was previously the candidate in Lingiari in 2013 and 2016. I believe she was going to sit with the Liberals had she won in 2013 (which the exit poll predicted Snowdon would lose his seat with the coalition projected to win 94 seats)

@Daniel T thanks for the correction. I think it is different in the Territory because the CLP haven’t won Lingiari (yet).

Labor has announced Matt Smith, a former Cairns Taipans NBL centre and unionist, as its candidate for the 2025 election. A very interesting marginal that the LNP will need a lot of resources to hold with a retiring MP.

For a party that supposedly was after Affirmative Action in Queensland with 50:50 gender representation this seems to be against that tide. They’ll need someone with a high profile and he seems to fit this bill somehow. But I guess that Labor has had too many goes with Elida Faith and have given up on her.

Labor can’t take this seat for granted. They must throw everything at it and they could win it.

LNP hold.

Labor picking a basketball player may check the high-profile candidate box but it doesn’t check the “Can Labor win in regional Queensland after October’s LNP landslide?” box.

By the way, those who want to see his basketball stats: https://nbl.com.au/player/3684/29564/matt-smith

Will Dutton be able to hold up the massive swings the Coalition got to them in Indigenous communities across the country? The swing in Kowanyama was 30.7% to the LNP in 2022 (equal to 71.9% TPP) and in Pormpuraaw it was 32.6% to the LNP (equal to 56.1% TPP).

LNP TPP in Indigenous communities (2019):
* Cape York: 55.1%
* Torres Strait Islands: 43.2%

The reason that 39.9% of Socialist Alliance preferences went to the LNP and was because of donkey voting, which is more prevalent in Indigenous communities where the people are less educated. This is also why they got 4.1% of the primary vote. The Socialist Alliance candidate was first on the ballot paper, the LNP were third and Labor were last, so the actual socialists would’ve preferenced the Greens then Labor while the donkey voters put the LNP third.

i doubt labor can win this seat while their in govt if they were in opposition maybe but this division is a wildcard given it hasnt had an election without Warren Entsch except the ruddslide in which he wasnt a candidate

This is one of the alp’s best chances in 2025. If as polls
Suggest there is a change of Qld govt which can be unpopular and Dutton loses the election in 2025 the he will not stay around. His seat without him being a candidate would be fertile ground for Labor. MAYBE queensland opens up for Labor in 2028 then

@mick he most likely wont win in 2025 but if he gets close to pulling down a first term governemtn it makes no sense to change leader. the party from what i hear is using a 2 term strategy dutton will go all the way to the lodge in 2028. labor wont win any seats in qld in 2028 there best chance is leichardt in 2025 other then that they wont win any more in 2028 labor only ever d wel coming from opposition and government rarely gain seats even less so in qld. the only time they gained seats was in the ruddslide in 2007 and then in the disaster of turnbull as pm. labors next chance to gain seats in qld will probably be in 2034 with chalmers as leader

Most elections in recent times have been close. 1954 1961 1969 1972 1974
1980 1984 1987 1993 1998
2010 2016 2019 maybe even 2022 and the closeness of one election does not mean the next one will be close

the polls are showing thats its effectively 50-50 so itstnads to reason it will be close

Per Preselection Updates, Jeremy Neal, a former councillor and paramedic, will be the LNP candidate for Leichhardt.

There has been an appeal lodged against Jeremy Neal. He lied in his application about leaving the party and assisting another.
Warren Entsch himself facilitated the appeal.
Unlikely the LNP boys club will do much about it

Primary vote here on state results (official first preference count):

* LNP: 35.8% (–0.9%)
* Labor: 34.2% (+6.6%)
* One Nation: 11.1% (+3.4%)
* Greens: 9.1% (+1.7%)
* KAP: 8.3% (+2.7%)
* Independent (Shane Cuthbert, Cairns): 1.1% (+1.1%)

Swings are from the 2022 federal election.

Thanks NP

Once results finalised good to work out the 2PP on state results.

Based on those results Leichhardt would be close.

@Nimalan when it is finalised I will do that. Again I expect it to be very close as One Nation and especially KAP preferences while flowing to the LNP are less disciplined than Greens preferences, the vast majority of which flow to Labor.

@ NP
Labor also did better in the Moreton Bay Region than i expected (Petrie/Longman)
I am guessing the state results last week were better than the May 2022 Federal results in Leichardt

@Nimalan I would say so with the loss of Warren Entsch’s personal vote. Remember Labor did better in Brisbane but outside Brisbane they did worse than they did in 2012 (e.g Mackay marginally stuck with Labor in 2012 but in 2024 it fell and became a safe LNP seat).

@ NP
Agree State Labor did worse than 2012 in the Regions. However, at a federal level they have done pretty badly since the Adani mine issue and there is no hope IMHO in Flynn, Capricornia, Dawson etc. Leichardt is the only exception and last week Anika Wells said it was a target seat for them.

The difference with 2012 and 2024 in the regions was back in 2012 KAP were new on the scene and got alot of the vote from Labor, this time it went to the LNP

My first official TPP calculation here based on the recent state election results:

* LNP: 53.5% (+0.1%)
* Labor: 46.5% (–0.1%)

I always round up to one decimal place but if we’re being technical and round it up to two decimal places then Warren Entsch’s TPP was 53.44% in 2022, while the LNP would’ve got 53.45% at the state level, so technically the results are almost identical with the LNP’s TPP being 0.01% higher on the state level.

While I certainly don’t deny that Warren Entsch has a personal vote (he is quite a popular incumbent and has been since he was elected, in fact had he still run he might’ve even held on in 2007). However, turnout was less on the state level (partially from the fact that lots of Indigenous people enrolled to vote because of the enrolment campaign but didn’t actually vote, but even then there were actually more votes cast in 2022 in Leichhardt than on the state level).

New calculation of state results (2024):

* LNP: 53.6%
* Labor: 46.4%

Labor did 0.2% worse on the state level than on the federal level, despite benefitting from the loss of Warren Entsch’s personal vote. This clearly shows that people in Far North Queensland resonated with David Crisafulli more than they did with Scott Morrison.