Leichhardt – Australia 2025

According to The Poll Bludger, this seat contains:

* 100% of Barron River
* 100% of Cairns
* 70% of Cook
* 60% of Mulgrave

People sometimes ask me “what is the blackest town in Australia?”. Well, I’ve found an island here that would be a contender for the least white place in Australia. I knew about this island before but I never knew the exact demographics of it.

Saibai Island is an island in the Torres Strait regarded as the second-most northern inhabited settlement in Australia (only Boigu Island is more but it is surprisingly whiter than Saibai Island). Having had a look in Google Maps Street View you can actually see the village of Sigadabaru in PNG in the distance from the island. It is also the closest part of Australia to PNG and the airport there does charter flights to Daru in PNG.

Cultural diversity:
* Indigenous status: 85.6% Indigenous, 10.3% non-Indigenous
* Ancestry: 74.7% Torres Strait Islander, 15.0% Papua New Guinean, 3.5% Aboriginal, 2.1% English
* Country of birth: 81.2% Australia, 10.9% Papua New Guinea
* Country of birth of father: 72.4% Australia, 24.1% Papua New Guinea
* Country of birth of mother: 75.0% Australia, 18.2% Papua New Guinea
* Religion: 84.2% Christianity (40.0% Anglican, 11.5% none, 7.1% Catholic, 6.8% “Christian” (nfd))
* Language spoken at home: 96.1% languages other than English, 6.5% English only (43.8% Torres Strait Creole (Yumplatok), 35.3% Kala Lagaw Ya, 6.5% English, 4.4% “Australian Indigenous languages” (nfd), 4.1% “Creole” (nfd), 1.8% “Aboriginal English” (so described))

Some other general stats about the island:
* Population: 340 (69 families)
* Weekly household income: $922 ($0 mortgage repayments)
* Weekly rent: $115
* Gender: 53.7% male, 46.3% female
* Median age: 25
* Marriage: 66.0% never married, 27.3% married, 2.4% separated, 2.4% widowed, 0.0% divorced (59.2% not married, 25.1% registered marriage, 15.6% de facto marriage)
* Work: 63.2% not in the labour force, 27.8% in the labour force (44.8% full-time, 43.1% unemployed, 19.0% part-time, 5.2% away from work)
* Long-term health conditions: 66.8% none, 9.7% diabetes, 4.1% asthma, 1.8% cancer, 0.9% mental health, 2.6% other
* Motor vehicles: 55.6% none, 30.6% one, 5.6% two, 4.2% three or more

With 96.1% of the population speaking a language other than English at home I think Saibai Island has the lowest percentage of native English speakers in Australia as well as being probably the most Papuan place in Australia and only 2.1% of the population has English ancestry. The only countries people are born in there are Australia and PNG, so literally nobody from any other continent has migrated there, which is strange since usually there’s at least one family from Asia or Europe that migrates to a remote area.

Labor has announced $7.2 billion to upgrade the Bruce Highway (which extends all the way from Brisbane to Cairns). I wonder if this means that they think Leichhardt is a reasonable chance?

The only other regional marginal this project would impact is Flynn, which despite the similar margin seems far less likely to flip to Labor.

@angas i think they are just trying to sure up votes in QLD. the only seat Labor has any chance of winning is Bullwinkel or maybe Sturt. other then that they are only playing defensive.

@Angas The Bruce Highway ends in Cairns

@angas from what im hereing labor is playing defensive and arent actually hoping to win seats with the exceptin of Bullwinkel and possibly Sturt

@Scart Indeed it does, but it is a vital transportation link, often disrupted in the wet season. The inland alternatives are little better.

I doubt this funding announcement moves the needle much towards Labor, if at all. It is a fair question to ask “Why didn’t you do this earlier in your term?” (Especially with a Labor state government previously in place).

Today’s announcement was made in Gympie. The proposed upgrades cover the following:
Maryborough to Benaraby (Divisions of Wide Bay, Hinkler & Flynn).
Rockhampton to St Lawrence (Capricornia)
Bowen to Townsville (Dawson)
Ingham to Innisfail (Kennedy)

The announcement was made in Gympie following the recent completion of the final section of the Cooroy to Curra upgrade. A project which was commenced in 2009 under the Rudd Government. The final section was the Gympie bypass.

Real talk,
That is an immensely stupid question to ask. Would anyone be that foolish?

@Real Talk I know that well enough, I live in Townsville myself

Minus Warren this seat is much stronger for Labor.. 2007 more than a double digit swing

@Mick doubtful 2007 can be attributed to both minus Entsch and the Ruddslide particularly in his home state of QLD. I think Liberal marginal retain due to Labor being in govt federally and Duttons hime state plus honeymoon of the state govt. But a small swing to Labor.

2022 Flashback: For those looking at unusual results, Leichhardt delivered in spades. One is mentioned in the 2022 Archived Seat profile (Informal winning and then Socialist Alliance second) but one that I had forgotten about until reviewing data is Bamaga…
Socialist Alliance won this booth with 26.71% beating ALP (26.24%) and LNP (25.53%).

My two cents: LNP Retain

@Politics Obsessed the only reason the Socialist Alliance won Bamaga was from donkey voting. That’s why they polled so highly in the Indigenous communities. But the LNP were above Labor so the donkey voters actually put the LNP above Labor.

Don’t think many people donkey vote due to ignorance. If the retiring mp is as popular as I suspect he could be… then Labor has a good chance. Also this seat has a different dynamic as mining is not that important. Cf Capricornia Dawson and Flynn

@Mick Quinlivan it’s not due to ignorance it’s the fact that many people in remote communities simply don’t know how to vote or who to vote for. Some have even admitted that they blindly vote for Labor because that’s what they’ve always done.

Warren Entsch actually did well in this regard. He made himself not only well-known but likeable among people in the least politically-informed areas in the country. Entsch actually won a majority of the TPP in most Indigenous communities, not so much on Thursday Island but especially in the mainland Aboriginal communities that swung massively to the LNP.

He is a popular MP but on state figures this would be an LNP seat, even with no Entsch on the state level. So while Labor are rightfully putting money into their campaign here, I don’t think they’ll win it given that it’s not a good time for Labor.

What’s interesting with Entsch though is that in 2004 he was one of only two Liberals that the old Family First party preferenced against. The other was Ingrid Tall, a lesbian doctor who contested the marginal seat of Brisbane. The reason: they both had views on LGBT issues that were at the time considered quite progressive (Entsch supported civil unions (and later became a very prominent supporter of gay marriage) and Tall supported gay marriage).