LIB 8.4%
Incumbent MP
Jason Wood, since 2013. Previously 2004-2010.
Geography
La Trobe covers the south eastern fringe of Melbourne and parts of the Dandenong Ranges, centred on Pakenham. It covers most of the Cardinia council area and an eastern portion of the City of Casey.
Redistribution
La Trobe lost Berwick to Bruce. This reduced the Liberal margin from 8.7% to 8.4%.
History
La Trobe was first created after the Second World War when the House of Representatives was expanded at the 1949 election. The seat was first won by Richard Casey, who had previously been an MP and minister before resigning from Parliament in 1940 to serve in a variety of diplomatic roles during the war.
Casey served as a minister for eleven years before resigning in 1960. John Jess won the seat for the Liberal Party in a by-election that year and held the seat until his defeat in 1972, when Whitlam’s national victory swept Tony Lamb into La Trobe. He lost the seat in 1975 and later returned to Parliament serving in the seat of Streeton from 1984 to 1990.
Marshall Baillieu won the seat for the Liberals in 1975 and held it until 1980. That year he was defeated by Peter Milton who held it until 1990 for the ALP. Bob Charles defeated Milton in 1990 and held the seat until 2004, during which he served on the shadow ministry from 1994 to 1996.
Charles retired in 2004 and he was succeeded by Jason Wood. Wood’s 5.8% margin in 2004 was cut to 0.5% in 2007, but he held on in the face of the election of the Rudd government. In 2010, Wood was defeated by Labor candidate Laura Smyth. La Trobe was one of only two seats that the ALP gained off the Coalition in an election where Labor lost ground and lost its parliamentary majority.
Jason Wood won back La Trobe in 2013 and has been re-elected three more times since.
- Greg Hardiman (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Ron Malhotra (Family First)
- Leonardo Panetta (One Nation)
- Jeff Springfield (Labor)
- Jason Wood (Liberal)
Assessment
La Trobe is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 41,786 | 45.6 | -0.2 | 45.2 |
| Abi Kumar | Labor | 23,918 | 26.1 | -7.6 | 26.2 |
| Michael Schilling | Greens | 9,980 | 10.9 | +3.3 | 10.9 |
| Merryn Mott | United Australia | 6,182 | 6.7 | +3.8 | 6.9 |
| Hadden Ervin | One Nation | 4,555 | 5.0 | -0.6 | 5.1 |
| Helen Jeges | Animal Justice | 2,450 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Michael Abelman | Liberal Democrats | 1,911 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.1 |
| Rebecca Skinner | Federation Party | 890 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 1.0 |
| Informal | 4,483 | 4.7 | +0.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 53,803 | 58.7 | +3.6 | 58.4 |
| Abi Kumar | Labor | 37,869 | 41.3 | -3.6 | 41.6 |
Polling places in La Trobe have been split into four parts. Those in the Pakenham area have been grouped together, with the split between north-east, south-east and south-west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote ranging from 53.5% in Pakenham to 65% in the south-east.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.3% in the south-east to 15.6% in the north-east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pakenham | 13.3 | 53.5 | 14,081 | 16.6 |
| South-West | 11.4 | 55.5 | 8,797 | 10.4 |
| North-East | 15.6 | 55.8 | 6,245 | 7.4 |
| South-East | 7.3 | 65.0 | 5,659 | 6.7 |
| Pre-poll | 10.0 | 59.4 | 31,332 | 36.9 |
| Other votes | 10.0 | 60.7 | 18,740 | 22.1 |
Election results in La Trobe at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Only the Clyde North Central, Emerald and Cockatoo booths stayed Labor. Liberal hold with it going having a double digit margin after the election.
@SpaceFish I think on the state level Pakenham will be a Liberal gain too.
The MP for this seat is Liberal Jason Wood who is very active on Instagram so he would’ve built up a profile in his electorate.
@Nether Portal,
I agree, while I think Labor can get a fourth term they’re going to lose the state seat of Pakenham as they only won with about 15 votes last time and the incumbent member is retiring. I can see other neighbouring seats at the state level falling as well like Hastings and Bass.
I think lab will lose govt in 2026.
Will be interesting to see if Labor’s primary vote increases or the Liberals with absence of United Australia and if One Nation doesn’t run here as well.
Whoops just saw that One Nation is running a candidate here.
The majority of uap will go to onp but I suspect lnp will get a boost too. The rest will split amongst the other cnadidates
A former cardinia mayor Jeff Springfield is the Labor candidate here, interestingly in the YouGov poll Labor was getting a swing here which I don’t see how or maybe the Liberals peaked in 2022 here? Honestly, I think the Liberals will crack double digit margin here.