Kooyong – Australia 2025

Monique Ryan will hold here, there is a large university population so her campaigning to decrease hex debt will certainly cut through.

I wonder if the current anti semitism may play into the Libs hands here. Parts of the new Kooyong have quite substantial Jewish populations and Peter Dutton might be seen by the Jewish community as a safer and more resolute pair of hands. Not that Monique Ryan has done anything to offend but the Lib seen as safer. Could be a factor in Bradfield as well.

Monique Ryan largely votes with Labor in the House, so that alone will be sufficient to not vote for her in the eyes of many Jewish electors fed up with Labor’s lack of action on combating anti-Semitism.

She has the advantage of incumbency with its resources but the increased cost of living is adversely affecting voters, and Labor is perceived as the entity to blame. Given Ms Ryan is so supportive of Labor in the Parliament, it may convince quite a few to instead vote Liberal this time around.

It helps that the Liberal Party has preselected a well qualified, relatively young candidate who knows her stuff.

Whilst there is a sizable Jewish population, it’s not as big as Macnamara’s or Goldstein’s. In Kooyong, there may be a form of protest vote against Labor rather than an endorsement of Dutton to curb antisemitism, including by activists and neo-Nazis or whomever.

Josh Frydenberg’s personal vote might have inflated the post-redistribution Liberal vote. There was a cohort who voted for him specifically for him, rather than the party, or because they saw him as a potential future Liberal leader. I’m not sure if Monique Ryan is personally popular and has gained the electorate’s trust but it remains to be seen.

@Rob, that’s a very long bow.

For a teal like Ryan, you do get the sense that voters perceive her as someone who would prefer to support a Labor minority government than a Liberal one, and that will weigh on voters who aren’t happy with Labor. Yes people are voting for their local member and being independent serves Ryan well electorally but given the broad expectation and media narrative around a minority government voters will be aware that their local member may well become a kingmaker.

Kooyong and Goldstein actually didn’t have a large Labor swing within the Lib vs Lab TPP in 2022 (2-3% compare to 4.5+% for similar electorates) I wonder Ryan and Daniel not providing how to vote preferences played a role?

I have driven through various parts of Kooyong this week. Far fewer corflutes out than this time in 2022. My wife has confirmed that as well. Of those out – Amelia Hamer has far more. In the Kooyong race there seems to be far less heat than 2022. That could be said about everywhere really. I would not be surprised if the Teals have far less ground game this time.

Redistributed – I drove from Northcote to Camberwell this morning, so right through Kew, Hawthorn, Hawthorn East and into Camberwell. I think I saw about 30 Monique Ryan corflutes or real estate size signs, compared to 2 I saw for Amelia Hamer. I thought it was similar to last time. I also saw a group of people in teal shirts door knocking in Kew.

I didn’t go any further east than Burke Rd though where the Liberal vote is stronger, or into the old Higgins area.

Adam – interesting. There are definitely more Amelia Hamer than Monique Ryan east of Burke Road in that part Camberwell and in Canterbury. It would be interesting to know how firm her vote is. For example, friends of my wife held fundraisers for Monique Ryan last time in their house and had a real estate sized sign outside their house. But they were also happy to fundraise for John Pessutto at the state election. Possibly an isolated case but interesting. They have moved house and their abode would not be as suitable for events this time so don’t know where they stand this time. But back to the main point – last time 3 months out there were corflutes for both sides out everywhere – much less this time.

In Hawthorn last night only saw 2 or 3 Monique Ryan no Hamer.

Different area and demographics I know, but with the results of the Werribee and Prahran by-election, you can sense that the Liberal brand in general is still a bit of a hot potato in Victoria, as in the incumbents have dropped or lost votes but the Liberals barely made up any ground and independents/third parties get the lion share of that. From that, I sense that particularly in inner city seats like Kooyong and Goldstein, despite the low margins, it seems more favourable for Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel to hold on if that sort of swing is replicated. Also demo polling suggests that the Liberals are faring not as well in the cities, which is another drag on their appeal in these electorates.

Unless anything drastic happens, I’m gonna say Kooyong and Goldstein are both Independent Holds.

I live in Kooyong and I think the independent is at a high possibility of losing. The liberal candidate I think is following a similar campaign method to John Pesutto’s campaign and they definitely have a lot of signs out, dominating some streets. Not to mention the Liberal candidate appears more moderate and friendly than Josh Frydenberg so it wouldn’t surprise me if voters go back to voting for them.
The redistribution also highly favours the Liberals as though there are far fewer signs down there, the only ones I’ve seen are blue.
I personally like the independent because they are much more open to discussing things with you, engages with the community a lot and is proactive on addressing climate change and taxing the fossil fuel industry, but I don’t see their 1300 strong volunteer base returning soon and there’s no groundswell like last time. But it’s still a few months to the election so either side could ramp up, you never know.

Moved this from the other thread

Monique Ryan seems to be further to the left than the other Teals and I don’t think that plays well with an electorate that is still fundamentally conservative on a 2pp basis. She is also more polarising than the other Teals. There is also a pretty solid Liberal block in the parts added by the redistribution. Those parts also have a fairly Jewish population and they move straight to the Libs. Amelia Hamer seems to be a good candidate and a fresh face.
Did Frydenburg really have a personsl vote? If so he might have held on. He did a hugely energetic and expensive campaign. The Teals could ride a wave in 2022 that is no longer there – a post Covid need for change, a visceral loathing for all things Scomo (Josh might have been collateral damage), MeToo (feeding into Scomo loathing), Climate change (well that is still here) and ‘corruption’ – and hasn’t the NACC been a complete dud. You just have to read the news to know we live in a more uncertain world. There also does not seem to be the energy of 2022. Thats why I think the Libs are in with a good chance.