IND 3.5% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Monique Ryan, since 2022.
Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Kooyong covers a majority of the Boroondara council area and part of the Stonnington council area, including the suburbs of Armadale, Hawthorn, Kew, Kooyong, Malvern, Canterbury, Surrey Hills, Balwyn, Toorak and parts of Camberwell.
Redistribution
Kooyong expanded south, taking in the suburbs of Kooyong, Toorak, Armadale and Malvern from the abolished seat of Higgins. Kooyong lost Mont Albert and Mont Albert North to Menzies, and lost part of Camberwell and the remainder of Glen Iris to Chisholm. These changes increased the estimated margin for Ryan from 2.9% to 3.5%.
History
Kooyong is an original federation electorate, and has always been held by conservative parties, by the Free Trade Party for the first eight years and by the Liberal Party and its predecessors since 1909. It was held from 1922 to 1994 by only three men, all of whom led the major conservative force in federal politics.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Free Trader William Knox. He was re-elected in 1903 and 1906 and became a part of the unified Liberal Party in 1909. He won re-election in 1910 but retired later that year after suffering a stroke.
The 1910 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Robert Best. Best had previously served as a colonial minister and a Protectionist Senator from 1901 to the 1910 election, when he lost his seat in the ALP’s majority victory, and had served as a minister in Alfred Deakin’s second and third governments. Best returned to Parliament, but didn’t serve in Joseph Cook’s Liberal government or Billy Hughes’ Nationalist government.
At the 1922 election, Best was challenged by lawyer John Latham, who stood for the breakaway Liberal Union, a conservative party running to personally oppose Billy Hughes’ leadership of the Nationalist Party. Despite winning the most primary votes by a large margin, Best lost to Latham on Labor preferences.
John Latham was elected as one of five MPs for the breakaway Liberal Party (two of whom had previously been Nationalist MPs and retained their seats as Liberals in 1922). The Nationalists lost their majority due to gains for the Liberal Party and Country Party, and were forced to go into coalition, and the Country Party demanded Billy Hughes’ resignation as Prime Minister. With Stanley Bruce taking over as Prime Minister, the five Liberals, including Latham, effectively rejoined the Nationalist Party, and Latham won re-election in 1925 as a Nationalist.
Latham served as Attorney-General in the Bruce government from 1925 to 1929, when the Nationalists lost power, and Bruce himself lost his seat. Latham became Leader of the Opposition, but yielded the leadership to former Labor minister Joseph Lyons when they formed the new United Australia Party out of the Nationalists and Labor rebels. Latham served as the unofficial Deputy Prime Minister in the first term of the Lyons government (when they governed without the need for support from the Country Party), before retiring at the 1934 election. Latham went on to serve as Chief Justice of the High Court from 1935 to 1952.
Kooyong was won in 1934 by Robert Menzies. Menzies had been elected to the Victorian state parliament in 1928 and had served as Deputy Premier in the United Australia Party government from 1932 to 1934. He was immediately appointed Attorney-General in the Lyons government. He served in the Lyons government until 1939, when he resigned from the Cabinet in protest over what he saw as the government’s inaction. This was shortly before the death of Joseph Lyons in April 1939, which was followed by the UAP electing Robert Menzies as leader, making him Prime Minister.
Menzies’ first term was rocky, with the Second World War being declared in September 1939. He managed to retain power with the support of independents at the 1940 election, but after spending months in Europe on war strategy in 1941 he returned home to opposition within the government, and was forced to resign as Prime Minister and UAP leader. He was replaced as leader by Country Party leader Arthur Fadden, who was followed soon after by Labor leader John Curtin.
Menzies worked in opposition to reform the conservative forces, who suffered a massive defeat at the 1943 election. In 1944 and 1945 he put together the new Liberal Party, which took over from the moribund United Australia Party and a number of splinter groups. He led the party to the 1946 election and won power in 1949.
Menzies held power for the next sixteen years, retaining power at elections in 1951, 1954, 1955, 1958, 1961 and 1963, and retiring in January 1966.
The 1966 Kooyong by-election was won by Andrew Peacock, then President of the Victorian Liberal Party. Peacock rose to the ministry in 1969 and served in the ministry until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. He served as a senior frontbencher during the Whitlam government and became Minister for Foreign Affairs in the Fraser government in 1975. He moved to the Industrial Relations portfolio in 1980, but resigned from Cabinet in 1981 due to supposed meddling in his portfolio by the Prime Minister. He launched a failed challenge to Fraser’s leadership and moved to the backbench, although he returned to Cabinet in late 1982, a few months before Malcolm Fraser lost power.
After the 1983 election, Peacock was elected leader, defeating John Howard, who had served as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party for the last few months of the Fraser government. Peacock led the party into the 1984 election, reducing the Hawke government’s majority. With rising speculation of a leadership challenge from Howard (still deputy leader) in 1985, he attempted to replace Howard as deputy leader, but the party room re-elected Howard. This caused Peacock to resign as leader and Howard was elected Leader of the Opposition. Howard led the Liberal Party to a bigger defeat in 1987. Howard was challenged by Peacock in 1989, and Peacock led the Liberal Party to the 1990 election. Despite winning a majority of the two-party preferred vote, Peacock didn’t win enough seats, and he resigned as leader immediately after the election.
Peacock remained on the frontbench under the leadership of John Hewson and Alexander Downer, and retired in 1994. Peacock was appointed Ambassador to the United States upon the election of the Howard government in 1996, and served in the role until 1999.
Kooyong was won at the 1994 by-election by Petro Georgiou, the State Director of the Victorian Liberal Party. Georgiou was a former advisor to Malcolm Fraser and a key proponent of multicultural government policies. Georgiou’s main opposition came from Greens candidate Peter Singer, due to the absence of a Labor candidate. Singer managed 28% of the primary vote, which remained a Greens record until the 2009 Higgins by-election, but it wasn’t enough to seriously challenge the Liberal hold on Kooyong.
Georgiou positioned himself strongly as a moderate within the Liberal Party and despite his impeccable credentials in the Liberal Party and as a policy advisor, he never held a frontbench role in the Howard government. He was openly critical of the Howard government’s refugee policies in the final term of the Howard government. He faced a strong preselection challenge in 2006, but managed to win more than two thirds of votes in the preselection. He managed to win re-election in 2007 with practically no swing against him, despite the Liberals suffering large swings across Australia.
In 2010, Georgiou retired, and he was succeeded by fellow Liberal Josh Frydenberg. Frydenberg was re-elected three times, and in 2018 was elected deputy leader of the Liberal Party. Frydenberg served in a number of ministerial portfolios, including as Treasurer from 2018 until 2022.
Frydenberg was defeated in 2022 by independent candidate Monique Ryan.
- Ann Bown Seeley (Family First)
- Jackie Carter (Greens)
- Amelia Hamer (Liberal)
- Richard Peppard (Libertarian)
- Monique Ryan (Independent)
Assessment
The 2022 political environment was more favourable to independents than it is now, but Monique Ryan should benefit from a personal vote that will help her win a second term.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Frydenberg | Liberal | 43,736 | 42.7 | -6.5 | 43.4 |
| Monique Ryan | Independent | 41,303 | 40.3 | +40.3 | 30.8 |
| Peter Lynch | Labor | 7,091 | 6.9 | -10.6 | 11.3 |
| Piers Mitchem | Greens | 6,461 | 6.3 | -14.8 | 9.8 |
| Alexandra Thom | Liberal Democrats | 1,080 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 1.4 |
| Scott Hardiman | United Australia | 1,011 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.2 |
| Rachael Nehmer | Animal Justice | 500 | 0.5 | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| Josh Coyne | One Nation | 741 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.5 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Will Anderson | Independent | 265 | 0.3 | +0.3 | 0.2 |
| Michele Dale | Hinch’s Justice Party | 177 | 0.2 | +0.1 | 0.1 |
| David Connolly | Australian Values Party | 152 | 0.1 | +0.2 | 0.1 |
| Informal | 3,046 | 2.9 | -0.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Monique Ryan | Independent | 54,276 | 52.9 | 53.5 | |
| Josh Frydenberg | Liberal | 48,241 | 47.1 | 46.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Josh Frydenberg | Liberal | 55,542 | 54.2 | -2.2 | 53.7 |
| Peter Lynch | Labor | 46,975 | 45.8 | +2.2 | 46.3 |
Booths have been divided into five areas: central, east, north-east, north-west and south. The “South” covers all of the areas added to Kooyong from Higgins, and thus no cover votes were cast there for Monique Ryan.
Ryan won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in three of the other four areas, ranging from 53.7% in the north-west to 60.4% in the centre. The Liberal Party won 51.1% in the north-east.
The two-party-preferred vote (between Liberal and Labor) was recorded everywhere. Generally the Liberal Party did 7-9% better on the 2PP than on the 2CP. Labor won in Central but the Liberal Party won everywhere else.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 53.9 | 53.7 | 10,921 | 9.9 |
| East | 54.9 | 54.0 | 10,894 | 9.9 |
| Central | 48.5 | 60.4 | 9,218 | 8.4 |
| South | 51.7 | 0.0 | 8,962 | 8.1 |
| North-East | 58.7 | 48.9 | 7,828 | 7.1 |
| Pre-poll | 52.5 | 38.3 | 37,574 | 34.1 |
| Other votes | 56.1 | 35.8 | 24,835 | 22.5 |
Election results in Kooyong at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent and Labor vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates, Labor and the Greens.
Monique Ryan will hold here, there is a large university population so her campaigning to decrease hex debt will certainly cut through.
I wonder if the current anti semitism may play into the Libs hands here. Parts of the new Kooyong have quite substantial Jewish populations and Peter Dutton might be seen by the Jewish community as a safer and more resolute pair of hands. Not that Monique Ryan has done anything to offend but the Lib seen as safer. Could be a factor in Bradfield as well.
Monique Ryan largely votes with Labor in the House, so that alone will be sufficient to not vote for her in the eyes of many Jewish electors fed up with Labor’s lack of action on combating anti-Semitism.
She has the advantage of incumbency with its resources but the increased cost of living is adversely affecting voters, and Labor is perceived as the entity to blame. Given Ms Ryan is so supportive of Labor in the Parliament, it may convince quite a few to instead vote Liberal this time around.
It helps that the Liberal Party has preselected a well qualified, relatively young candidate who knows her stuff.
Whilst there is a sizable Jewish population, it’s not as big as Macnamara’s or Goldstein’s. In Kooyong, there may be a form of protest vote against Labor rather than an endorsement of Dutton to curb antisemitism, including by activists and neo-Nazis or whomever.
Josh Frydenberg’s personal vote might have inflated the post-redistribution Liberal vote. There was a cohort who voted for him specifically for him, rather than the party, or because they saw him as a potential future Liberal leader. I’m not sure if Monique Ryan is personally popular and has gained the electorate’s trust but it remains to be seen.
@Rob, that’s a very long bow.
For a teal like Ryan, you do get the sense that voters perceive her as someone who would prefer to support a Labor minority government than a Liberal one, and that will weigh on voters who aren’t happy with Labor. Yes people are voting for their local member and being independent serves Ryan well electorally but given the broad expectation and media narrative around a minority government voters will be aware that their local member may well become a kingmaker.
Kooyong and Goldstein actually didn’t have a large Labor swing within the Lib vs Lab TPP in 2022 (2-3% compare to 4.5+% for similar electorates) I wonder Ryan and Daniel not providing how to vote preferences played a role?
I have driven through various parts of Kooyong this week. Far fewer corflutes out than this time in 2022. My wife has confirmed that as well. Of those out – Amelia Hamer has far more. In the Kooyong race there seems to be far less heat than 2022. That could be said about everywhere really. I would not be surprised if the Teals have far less ground game this time.
Redistributed – I drove from Northcote to Camberwell this morning, so right through Kew, Hawthorn, Hawthorn East and into Camberwell. I think I saw about 30 Monique Ryan corflutes or real estate size signs, compared to 2 I saw for Amelia Hamer. I thought it was similar to last time. I also saw a group of people in teal shirts door knocking in Kew.
I didn’t go any further east than Burke Rd though where the Liberal vote is stronger, or into the old Higgins area.
Adam – interesting. There are definitely more Amelia Hamer than Monique Ryan east of Burke Road in that part Camberwell and in Canterbury. It would be interesting to know how firm her vote is. For example, friends of my wife held fundraisers for Monique Ryan last time in their house and had a real estate sized sign outside their house. But they were also happy to fundraise for John Pessutto at the state election. Possibly an isolated case but interesting. They have moved house and their abode would not be as suitable for events this time so don’t know where they stand this time. But back to the main point – last time 3 months out there were corflutes for both sides out everywhere – much less this time.
In Hawthorn last night only saw 2 or 3 Monique Ryan no Hamer.
Different area and demographics I know, but with the results of the Werribee and Prahran by-election, you can sense that the Liberal brand in general is still a bit of a hot potato in Victoria, as in the incumbents have dropped or lost votes but the Liberals barely made up any ground and independents/third parties get the lion share of that. From that, I sense that particularly in inner city seats like Kooyong and Goldstein, despite the low margins, it seems more favourable for Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel to hold on if that sort of swing is replicated. Also demo polling suggests that the Liberals are faring not as well in the cities, which is another drag on their appeal in these electorates.
Unless anything drastic happens, I’m gonna say Kooyong and Goldstein are both Independent Holds.
I live in Kooyong and I think the independent is at a high possibility of losing. The liberal candidate I think is following a similar campaign method to John Pesutto’s campaign and they definitely have a lot of signs out, dominating some streets. Not to mention the Liberal candidate appears more moderate and friendly than Josh Frydenberg so it wouldn’t surprise me if voters go back to voting for them.
The redistribution also highly favours the Liberals as though there are far fewer signs down there, the only ones I’ve seen are blue.
I personally like the independent because they are much more open to discussing things with you, engages with the community a lot and is proactive on addressing climate change and taxing the fossil fuel industry, but I don’t see their 1300 strong volunteer base returning soon and there’s no groundswell like last time. But it’s still a few months to the election so either side could ramp up, you never know.
Moved this from the other thread
Monique Ryan seems to be further to the left than the other Teals and I don’t think that plays well with an electorate that is still fundamentally conservative on a 2pp basis. She is also more polarising than the other Teals. There is also a pretty solid Liberal block in the parts added by the redistribution. Those parts also have a fairly Jewish population and they move straight to the Libs. Amelia Hamer seems to be a good candidate and a fresh face.
Did Frydenburg really have a personsl vote? If so he might have held on. He did a hugely energetic and expensive campaign. The Teals could ride a wave in 2022 that is no longer there – a post Covid need for change, a visceral loathing for all things Scomo (Josh might have been collateral damage), MeToo (feeding into Scomo loathing), Climate change (well that is still here) and ‘corruption’ – and hasn’t the NACC been a complete dud. You just have to read the news to know we live in a more uncertain world. There also does not seem to be the energy of 2022. Thats why I think the Libs are in with a good chance.
@Ben Raue
“Kooyong expanded south, taking in the suburbs of Kooyong, Toorak, Armadale and Malvern from the abolished seat of North Sydney.”
I think North Sydney should be Higgins.
Thanks, fixed.
@Redistributed – absolutely. Josh Frydenberg had a massive personal vote as a proven moderate and high-profile. The problem was the overall Liberal Party under ScoMo was seen as out-of-touch here, with the alienation of moderates and Chinese voters (big communities in Kooyong), and Monique Ryan’s campaign was very strong and well-resourced. There was a big ‘Keep Josh’ campaign here, and it’s clear it helped limit the swing here, especially in an electorate with Hawthorn and Kew which are becoming younger and more progressive by the day.
It would be interesting to know if the ‘Keep Josh’ campaign sucked resources out of other seats. He always had tons of people on the ground. I just get the impression that there is not the same enthusiasm for Monique Ryan this time around. Heard last week from someone who had been at a fundraiser for Ryan that the Chinese people in the room got up and left as her campaign video had no Asian people in it.
So Ryan’s husband got caught stealing a sign of Amelia Hamers .
Yes, the question is will it have any impact on Ryan’s re-election bid?
I think yes. It’s rare that an independent or minor party gets national coverage for anything, so I think that this could harm her. Much better chance for Amelia Hamer now.
Telling insight into the Teals’ lack of ethics
This is irrelevant in terms of the race. Fights over signage are typical election campaign material that the average voter couldn’t care less about, but which party campaigners and others heavily tuned into a race love to think is extremely important.
I completely agree with @Adda. These incidents occur every election implicating candidates of all stripes. The only people who care or even pay any attention are political junkies like us – certainly not undecided voters.
@Sheriff Because supporters of either major party would never stoop to such lows, would they?
Get real.
I just don’t understand why in this day and age anyone affiliated with any party, let alone the partner of an incumbent MP who is an elected official, would remove or vandalise signage. Whether it be removing signs or vandalising them with Hitler moustaches, it’s not okay and Monique Ryan has some explaining to do.
The thing is to a non Teal voter one of the appeals seems to be they are separate to the mainstream of politics, they are a kinder, softer version. So this appears to me to make them just another party and lose some of their appeal, but I know that once you are committed to a side you tend to forgive all their indiscretions.
np remving opposing signage is done because its advertising the oppositing party. as for vandalising with profanity and images this is usually by people who think very loly of the candidate/ their party or politicians in general or are of a low character
i think the sign stealing saga is gonna cost Monique Ryan Kooyong and the hairdresser saga will cost Boele Bradfield
Does the average person (especially in Kooyong) still think about that sign debacle from last week? It feels like there’s just been some short term outrage and then everyone just moved on. The only effect this has now is that Hamer has one more way to advertise herself to the electorate.
If Monique Ryan is losing, there are far better explanations than… Signs. (e.g., Kooyong doesn’t like Ryan’s policies, Hamer being a good candidate, Chinese community swung back to Liberals Swings to Liberals in VIC, the last one is a shakey argument imo)
NOTE: I forgot a comma btw Chinese community swung back to Liberals and Swings to Liberals in VIC (as in a general polling swing), these are 2 separate things
Tbh I think Ryan would hold the seat. My personal view (I’m Chinese and live in Kooyong, and first time voting) is that I don’t trust Peter Dutton after his China comments after COVID. And by voting for Amelia Hamer is basically a vote for Peter Dutton. A lot of my Chinese friends share that same sentiment. As for Sign-Gate, it hasn’t weighed that much on my mind. To the general person/undecided voter yes it probably does have an effect, but for me Dutton’s untrustworthiness and alienation towards China overshadows it.
I went to school in Kooyong and still drive around the same area, some interesting notes:
– Houses that had Greens sign switched to Ryan’s (3)
– Some houses that previously had Josh’s sign doesn’t have Hamer’s sign (2/5)
– Most houses that had Ryan’s sign are continuing to support her (8/10)
I agree with Eric and Lurking Westie about the stolen sign debacle. First off, I don’t condone defacing or taking down any sign without good reason or for a political motive. At the same time, it is an issue that pales in comparison to much bigger, broader, more substantive local and federal issues. Such issues whether they be connection to the ethnic Chinese community or social or affordable housing policy or tax reform would be more pivotal.
Are you sure Votante? People are betting the liberal to win on any sports betting website. From odds of 2 to 1.7 is not just a confirmation for Amelia to win the seat back, but also showing strength that people will vote her just to win some extra cash. Remember, Kooyong is a heavy liberal drawn throughout history, and once it got broken by Ryan, most of the community will soon regret it and get back where they belonged. Climate change is nothing compared to having reckless people in the community and open areas especially ryan’s husband picking up signs rather than doing climate control if they really care about it. The cost of living now raises concerns, voting for Ryan and labor is just going to make it worse. Cause as long as the climate is good, she does not care about anything.
People need to stop bringing up betting odds as a predictive measure where it’s totally unwarranted. Gamblers are not some source of truth – they react to headlines and vibes as anyone else does, and usually without good reason. It’s especially bad for seat betting markets as they are so thinly traded thanks to limits placed by the gambling companies that they move in response to people sending less than $100 – it’s not any evidence of real movement. If you went by seat betting for just about any Australian election you’d have a far worse predictive record than by following polls and applying a uniform swing.
I say all of this as someone who frequently bets – I’ve seen for myself just how out of step the seat betting odds often are as compared to actual predictive metrics. Citing a movement of $2 to $1.7 as “confirmation” is particularly silly.
As for the rest – there’s no sign that Kooyong is suddenly having buyers remorse on these issues, as opposed to having voted for an independent focussed on the issues they voted for her to focus on. Are the constituents of Kooyong suddenly about to switch their vote on crime? I wouldn’t bet on it. If they are concerned, they surely don’t think their choice of federal representative impacts what happens. It sounds to me that such lines only preach to those who already vote Liberal. Cost of living may switch more votes, but if there’s any seat that isn’t especially affected by it in Melbourne it’ll be this one.
Add a what’s your take on Kooyong lib gain or ind retain
@Devin Lu, I never mentioned which candidate I thought would win nor am I prepared to make a prediction in a battleground seat like Kooyong (at least for now). It comes down to localised campaigning and issues as well as broader issues like the other commentators have mentioned. This is not to say that the electorate won’t flip.
I agree that cost of living is a big issue. I mentioned affordable housing and tax reform and policies which are intertwined with cost of living.
“…showing strength that people will vote her just to win some extra cash.”
I’m not sure if most of the people either setting, betting or moving the odds are living in Kooyong, let alone are switching their votes from Ryan to Liberal.
Betting markets early on are ok signs as the agencies set their odds based off polling etc. but the election betting markets are small and how a small number of people bet overly influences the odds. That’s when you see lines come in or float out heavily. That usually is in the same direction as polls are heading, but it’s exaggerated. So say someone comes in from $2 to $1.70, the actually odds probably should be sitting at $1.80 or $1.90. that’s when it makes sense to bet the other side of it.
Hope that makes sense.
@Darth Vader I think the teals on the whole should do well. I’m not making a prediction on Kooyong specifically at this time nor am I going to be in tune with the local campaign dynamics, but this is territory that has markedly shifted from the Liberal party. If Hamer wins, it’ll be by making this a personality contest between her and Ryan, but that will be challenging under the shadow of Dutton in an electorate which is relatively progressive for a teal seat. Ryan has also shown the ability to weather a challenging campaign in 2022. We will see how the rest of the campaign goes but my starting guess is that this is an electorate rather averse to the national Liberal campaign/policy platform and that it overshadows Hamer herself, which helps Ryan retain.
Pesutto did win Hawthorne with a small swing towards him in Vic 2022, but he was able to sell himself as being an important agent to change the Liberals from within to become more moderate. Hamer herself doesn’t have the same established credentials and it is easy to point to a vote for her being a vote for Dutton.
I think a teal retain with a swing to the Liberals against Labor. Lib vs teal 2CP – Ryan might get a boost.
Liberal candidate Hamer currently getting some poor press coverage over her claims to be a struggling renter trying to get into the housing market whilst she actually owns 2 investment properties
That’s the problem with trying to go for a superficial change in candidate optics without substance to back it up. The notion that Hamer is some poor renter struggling to get into the housing market was never going to pass in the first place – even if the press for some reason only now found out about the investment properties.
If it isn’t already clear, I’m pretty sure this is a controversy that will cause some real damage in the electorate, unlike the sign kerfuffle. Specifically when the image of a millennial renter was something she sought to cultivate. We’ll see how far the fallout goes but it’s easy to see this haunting her for the rest of the campaign.
About a year ago i thought Ryan was perhaps the most vulnerable of the teal independents but the Lib seems to have sabotaged their campaign with poor candidate selection.
Or only a b it too late to recall frydenburg
Josh was aware that his chances weren’t that good, that’s why he didn’t contest. He was the treasurer and had the biggest spend by far of any Liberal in 2022 and it was still not enough. Why would he do better on round 2?
Josh was aware that his chances weren’t that good, that’s why he didn’t contest. He was the treasurer and had the biggest spend by far of any Liberal in 2022 and it was still not enough. Why would he do better on round 2?