Kennedy – Australia 2025

The agricultural rural areas were always Nationals while the industrial ones were always Labor. Now both are solidly Nationals, with limited exceptions now (e.g Gladstone and Whyalla anre industrial but still vote Labor).

Barcaldine is one of the weakest booths of the LNP in Maranoa but nevertheless it’s still now an LNP booth. Barcaldine was where the Labor Party was founded.

@Nimalan thanks for the booths, I will calculate that now.

@ NP
Look at seats like Maranoa, Gwydir, Riverina and Hume. None of those seats were ever industrial but in the past Labor often won it.

@Nimalan they had union movements though whereas seats like Cowper, Gippsland, Lyne, Mallee and New England didn’t and thus always stuck with conservatives.

State TCP/TPP here (2024):

* KAP/Labor: 61.1%
* LNP: 38.9%

The KAP TCP/Labor TPP on the state level is 2.0% lower than Bob Katter’s federal TCP but 0.2% higher than Labor’s federal notional TPP.

Since the three KAP seats (Hill, Hinchinbrook and Traeger) are KAP vs LNP but Burdekin, Cook and Mulgrave are LNP vs Labor, the KAP TCP in the Kennedy booths in the three KAP seats and the Labor TPP in the Kennedy booths in the three other seats are combined. Kennedy is a KAP vs LNP seat.

Now that we’ve done all 30 seats I’ll post the map once it’s finalised.

@ Nether Portal
Can i ask if you can do a Table when you get a moment for % of people with No religion by electorate. It is actually good timing with Deeming V Pesutto issue will religion versus secularism be a major divide in society going forward and a cause of realignment

@Nimalan sure. You’ll find that rural seats often have high percentages of no religion while ethnic seats have high percentages of people who follow a religion (not necessarily Christianity).

However the non-religious population in Australia is higher than what it says on the census because lots of people would’ve been baptised Christian and many of those people aren’t religious anymore but still put their old religion on the census. Plus you have to be 18 to fill out the census so religious families might have non-religious children.

It appears that Australians usually describe themselves as non-religious rather than atheist or agnostic though.

@ Nether Portal
Thanks look forward to it
Religion and Faith are two different things sometime religion is more about identity than belief. A lot of people who say No Religion actually believe in a God of some sort but do not identify with any of the worlds religion. Something i have found is that ethnic forms of Christianity like Greek Orthodoxy is actually growing even with little immigration these days as it more about identity. Judaism is also growing slowly even with little immigration because even Secular Jews have a strong identity. I have met a lot of people who are Catholic but only go to Church on special occasions like Christmas Eve, Easter but they still prefer to have a wedding in a church and Baptise children but they do not really care about abortion, SSM etc.

The reason inland NSW and Queensland seats used to sometimes vote Labor was that there were large pastoral properties that depended on iterinant workers like shearers who were heavily unionised (AWU) and railway workers – more widely scattered during the days of steam. Towns like Junee and Cootamundra were seen as ‘Labor’ towns. More mechanisation, railway rationalisation and decline of the wool industry saw the decline of this rural working class. Southern NSW was also much more Catholic and some of this vote went to the DLP. Similarly in Queensland much of the rural Labor vote went to the QLP and DLP after 1957. In inland NSW there was also still Labor infrastructure as they held state seats until 1988. Inland NSW is a classic example of where Labor has hollowed itself out – it has taken the ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’ approach and outsourced the anti-Coalition vote to various independents or the Shooters. With the result that Labor primary votes are hard pressed to get to 20%. It would be interesting to know how much Labor infrastructure is left in towns like Armidale, Wagga, Bathurst or even Broken Hill.

@ Redistributed,

Good points. I think Gundagai was seen as a Railway town.

When do you feel the Catholic/Protestant divide almost ceased. In the Republic referendum many commentators said that many Catholics were more Republican than Protestant. i dont think that was a big difference in the Voice referendum.

@Redistributed yes but some regional seats like Barker, Gippsland, Lyne and Mallee have never been won by Labor (I grew up in Lyne). Cowper has only been held by Labor once and it was for one term.

I grew up in Cowper and first voted in that seat.
There were definitely trade unions in Cowper – in the timber industry, sugar mills, abattoirs etc.
In regional areas, Labor Party support was strong among small business owners, as the coalition were the parties of big business.
The country party’s base was small farmers. In the regions with small farms, farmers were a larger voting block. In NSW, this was primarily the Northeast corner of the state, and in Queensland, the Southeast corner outside of Brisbane. Prior to the recent Queensland state election, the bulk of the LNP’s state seats were still in the rural southeast outside of Brisbane.

Maranoa was one of five rural seats Labor gained in 1940. I suspect the win had more to do with that election campaign, rather than a sudden uptake in trade unionism.

@WW definitely a small farmer thing but also unionism was never really that big in southern part of the seat. At least not the unions Labor work with.

Nether Portal,
If you dig around you will probably find that there were and still are many trade unions active in that area. The majority of Labor voters are not active in the trade union movement.

Labor MPs elected in rural areas tended to be small businessmen.
Small businesses in country towns have been replaced by the large business chains, with their outlets concentrated in the larger population centres.

@Watson Watch growing up the small businesses weren’t trade unionist and they aren’t now (I lived in a small town), but of course that was only the 1990s and 2000s.

I wasn’t saying small businesses were trade unionist.
Small business owners often voted Labor, and were Labor Party candidates, because Labor supported small business while the coalition supported big business.

Katter nearly lost Kennedy in 2013 when the swing was last on, Katter Party in Qld stabbed the LNP in the back over abortion laws, it didn’t do them any good, they were seen to be playing Ducks and Drakes.
Time could be up for old bluffi n ‘and blusterin’ Bob after 32 years ridin’ the Canberra gravy train and another 18 in Qld Parliament before that.
******************************************
The Labor Party of early 20th century Qld bears no resemblance to today’s Labor Party.
The bush Labor MLAs of those days were miners, cane farmers, businessmen with organisational and administrative skills.
Post War saw an exodus from the bush into the coastal cities and Brisbane and the writing was on the wall for Labor west of the Dividing Range.

@Gympie given that all the KAP members won comfortably on the state level where abortion was an issue I don’t see that happening on the federal level where abortion isn’t an issue.

However, what we did see at the state election was Labor dropped to third place in all three KAP seats and they all became KAP vs LNP contests. In 2020, Hinchinbrook was KAP vs LNP but Hill and Traeger were KAP vs Labor.

Who would likely win this area between the two major parties if Katter wasn’t here, I personally reckon that now the LNP but there would’ve been a time like through the Rudd/Gillard years where Labor could have won here.

@SpaceFish
2 Party Preferred result from 2022 was LNP 60.16%; ALP 39.84%.
https://results.aec.gov.au/27966/Website/HouseDivisionPage-27966-167.htm
LNP wins it eventually.
LNP got 40% to Katter’s 29% in 2013, but it wasn’t quite enough.

@SpaceFish during those years and even in the 90s it would’ve been the LNP as they were winning the notional TPP.

with this expected to be Bob Katters last term the LNP might do well to run the same candidate again in 2028 and may be the best chance theyve have to win the seat since they came close in 2013. Bob katter would be careful to not let his friendship cloud his judgement incase of a hung parliament as if he sides with Labor this would cause him or whoever ran in 2028 (lkely his son Robbie katter) problems and they may lose it. It would likely also cause problems at a state level in regards to the seats they have there

The qld state election showed things about kap. The abortion hangrenade had nothing to do with abortion. It was about stopping a lnp landslide and trying to get a hung parliament where kap would have a share of the action. They understood how Christofuli would react like a rabbit caught in the spotlight saying things no one believes and not answering an obvious question which everyone knew the answer to. The qld election was almost a hung parliament. This showed to me kap were both clever and cunning.
I would not like to have to rely on them.

@Mick Quinlivan I wouldn’t say “almost a hung parliament”. The LNP got a five-seat majority, exactly the same majority that Labor got in 2020.

all a landlside does is give you a whole bunnch of useless mps in seats you will never hold in the long term.

medium-long term*

Not true John, NSW 2011 led to realignments that were only really broken in 2023, Labor’s victory in WA a the state and federal level in 21/22 may have a similar effect

Maxim, in fact the realignment in NSW wasn’t really broken in 2023 as some former safe Labor seats in the established outer suburbs of Sydney (places like East Hills, Oatley and Penrith) still remain marginal today.

Only the Queensland and NT landslides (2012 and 2016 respectively) were short lived, with the WA landslide potentially being another short lived victory.

That’s true thanks Yoh An

49 is a majority they got 52 very close
About 2% swing would cause that to happen.

@maxim that sounds like a medium to long term to me……

@mick 47 actually

you also need to consider demographic and boundary changes.

Further to my comment on Fowler thread @Gympie March 5, 2025 at 1:17 pm:
Katter dropped 17%PV of total votes cast in 2013, 36% round figures drop on his Party vote compared to 2010.
He was in the media lately talking up how he told Labor he’d walk away unless they picked Rudd over Gillard in 2013, unsure why he’d be bringing that up.
My guess:
the young hardheads running Labor’s campaign have asked themselves what percentage is in it for them to keep Katter afloat in Kennedy when they could probably win the seat outright with a credible candidate and a bit of money?

Bob Katter is the last remaining serving MP or Senator from when Keating was PM.

That is a long time to keep running away from responsibility

Absolutely sterling contribution to the debate, Bazza.

Would be very hard to win for Labor
But rumour Robbie to inherit 5he seat s99n??

Actually Russell broadbent is still in parliament

Of interest In a d8fferent world Ted Theodore who Bob Katter admir3s could have been mp for this seat and served there till the early 50s

Mick
Theodore ran for Herbert in 1925. Not sure what the connection to Kennedy is meant to be.

@Mick Quinlivan
**Of interest In a d8fferent world Ted Theodore who Bob Katter admir3s could have been mp for this seat and served there till the early 50s**
Huge call, if only because Theodore died 9th February 1950. Kennedy was an AWU seat, Theodore wasn’t an AWU man. Kennedy was held by the Riordan family for 37 years from 1929, there was a strike at Mt Isa from December 1964 to December 1965, led by AWU activist Pat Mackie. Courier Mail published bank records indicating Mount Isa Mines had been secretly paying Mackie foir the duration of the strike, which ended the strike. Riordan announced he wouldn’t seek reelection, former Labor man RC Katter stood for the Country Party and won. In 1990 Katter announced he wouldn’t be running again and Rob Hulls won the seat for the ALP for 3 years until 1993 when Katter Jr ran and won.
Bottom line: 2 family dynasties have held this seat for 96 years, nothing remotely similar has happened in the other 149 seats, not even in Tasmania. Sort of situation that might be worth a PHD Thesis?

Redistributed:

Theodore wanted to run in Kennedy as that overlapped with his state seat of Chillagoe. Unfortunately for him, the Labor incumbent Charles McDonald refused to give way, and Theodore ran (and lost) in Herbert instead.

From ‘Red Ted’, by Ross Fitzgerald (1994, p. 183-184)

“Ironically, there should have been no need for Theodore to stand for Herbert in the first place. 65-year old Charles McDonald had been federal MHR for Kennedy since Federation in 1901. Although a republican who shunned the wig and gown he was Speaker from 1910 to 1913, and again from 1914 to 1917. Unlike Fred Bamford, he strayed with Labor after the conscription split. he suffered increasingly from Parkinson’s disease but despite his extremely poor health, which was known to party officials, McDonald was re-nominated as ALP candidate for Kennedy at the 1925 elections. On 13 November he died after the close of nominations but before the actual day of the elections. Under the Australian electoral law as it stood at that time (it has since been altered) there was no provision for re-opening nominations. Hence the only other candidate, the Nationalist Grosvenor Francis, had an unexpected walkover. had McDonald stood down in favour of Theodore, Francis would almost certainly have been beaten, as Kennedy was otherwise uniformly a Labor seat until the election of Bob Katter Snr in 1996. Morever it incorporated the base metal mining districts in which Theodore had made his mark in Queensland union affairs and his debut in state politics. If Theodore had won kennedy in 1925, he would not have been see as trespassing on Lang’s turf in New South Wales. At the very least, he would not have had to face the Dalley bribery scandal, and, as Kennedy stayed a Labor seat even in the debacle of 1931, it would have been open to Theodore to remain on the frontbench with a very strong chance of taking over from Scullin when the later retired. From that position, Theodore would have become Australia’s war-time prime minister. This is one of the great might-have-beens of Australian history.”

John:

Broadbent was indeed elected earlier than Katter, but has served three separate terms. The Father of the House (or Mother, if applicable) designation applies to continuous service. Had Broadbent not spent 1993-96 and 1998-2001 out of parliament, he would be the FOTH.

Apologies to John, I misunderstood his response to an earlier statement. He is completely correct. Broadbent is additionally the last serving MP from the days of the Hawke government.

Agree Real Talk, Warren Snowden when he was in parliament after 2016 was never considered ‘Father of the House’ even though he was first elected in 1987. This was due to his discontinuous service (defeated in 1996), and as a result Kevin Andrews who served continuously since 1991 held the title instead.

Time frame a bit out. THeordore indeed died in 1950 at th3 age of 65. He found out he had a heart condition whilst making a fortune from gold mines in Fiji.
If he remained in parliament post 1930
( largely from Red Ted)
Maybe he would have got to be pm….
John Curtin would not have stood against Theodore.. Theodore and Curtin maintained correspondence in 1930s and 1940x.

Maybe Theodore could have been the Bob Hawke of 1930.
The world of What if…….

Time goes quickly Bob Katter isthe oldest few politicans are over 70 years old.