ALP 9.5%
Incumbent MP
Mark Dreyfus, since 2007.
Geography
Outer south-eastern Melbourne. Isaacs covers suburbs along the coast of Port Phillip Bay on the south-eastern fringe of Melbourne. It covers a majority of the Kingston council area and southern parts of the Greater Dandenong council area.
Redistribution
Isaacs shifted north, losing Bonbeach, Carrum and Patterson Lakes to Dunkley and also losing the remainder of Highett to Goldstein. Isaacs gained Noble Park and Springvale South from Hotham and part of Dandenong from Bruce. These changes increased the Labor margin from 6.9% to 9.5%.
History
Isaacs was created at a redistribution before the 1969 federal election. The seat was long a marginal seat, but has become safer for the ALP over the last decade.
The seat was first won in 1969 by the Liberal Party’s David Hamer. Hamer held the seat until 1974, when he lost to the ALP’s Gareth Clayton, but Hamer won back the seat in 1975.
Hamer retired in 1977, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate William Burns. Burns failed to win re-election in 1980, when Isaacs was won by the ALP’s David Charles.
Charles held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1990. The Liberal Party’s Rod Atkinson won back the seat in 1990.
Atkinson was re-elected in 1993, but a redistribution before the 1996 election changed Isaacs’ margin from a 3% Liberal margin to a 3.9% Labor margin, and Atkinson lost to the ALP’s Greg Wilton.
Wilton was re-elected in 1998. His marriage broke down in 2000, and he faced strong media attack in 2000 after being found by police in a situation that some interpreted as an attempted murder-suicide. This ended with Wilton committing suicide in June 2000. He remains the only member of federal Parliament to ever die by suicide.
The ALP’s Ann Corcoran easily won re-election at the ensuing by-election, with the Liberal Party not standing a candidate. Corcoran’s margin was cut to around 1-2% at the 2001 and 2004 elections, and retired in 2007.
The seat was won in 2007 by the ALP’s candidate, prominent lawyer Mark Dreyfus. Dreyfus was has been re-elected five times.
- Mark Dreyfus (Labor)
- Audrey Harmse (Family First)
- Matthew Kirwan (Greens)
- Fiona Ottey (Liberal)
Assessment
Isaacs is a reasonably safe Labor seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mark Dreyfus | Labor | 39,228 | 40.0 | -5.0 | 42.8 |
| Robbie Beaton | Liberal | 31,306 | 31.9 | -3.4 | 29.5 |
| Alex Breskin | Greens | 12,621 | 12.9 | +1.8 | 12.1 |
| Sarah O’Donnell | Liberal Democrats | 4,785 | 4.9 | +4.9 | 5.6 |
| Scott McCamish | United Australia | 4,855 | 4.9 | +1.0 | 5.3 |
| Boris Sokiransky | One Nation | 3,130 | 3.2 | +3.2 | 3.0 |
| Alix Livingstone | Animal Justice | 2,259 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 1.7 |
| Informal | 3,382 | 3.3 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Mark Dreyfus | Labor | 55,818 | 56.9 | +0.4 | 59.5 |
| Robbie Beaton | Liberal | 42,366 | 43.1 | -0.4 | 40.5 |
Polling places in Isaacs have been divided into three areas, east, north-west and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.4% in the north-west to 63.2% in the east.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 9.6% in the east to 16.2% in the north-west.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 9.6 | 63.2 | 15,960 | 15.7 |
| South | 15.3 | 59.2 | 12,837 | 12.6 |
| North-West | 16.2 | 57.4 | 9,073 | 8.9 |
| Pre-poll | 11.3 | 59.7 | 41,772 | 41.1 |
| Other votes | 11.8 | 57.5 | 22,028 | 21.7 |
Election results in Isaacs at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Labor hold, the redistributions have been really favourable to Mark Dreyfus and he appears to be a well liked local member.
If the liberals wanted to make this seat more proliberal they would suggest Beaumaris and black rock be added here.
Now this impacts on Goldstein ( teal)
And Dunkley through flow through.
My seat. Dreyfus hold. He’s an active and well known local member with a relatively high profile.
Libs campaign here invisible apart from usual online scuttlebutt about Dreyfus living north of his electorate. That said, for the third election in a row the Libs have selected a candidate from outside the electorate also (this one from Hampton), so credibility of criticism rather diminished.
With Patterson Lakes transferred out, can Dreyfus win every booth?
liberals wont win here while dreyfus is in office. probably not until dandenong is moved out also. and maybe a landslide