IND 8.9% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Helen Haines, since 2019.
Geography
North-eastern Victoria. Indi runs along the Murray River and stretches inland to cover Wodonga, Wangaratta, Towong, Mansfield, Murrindindi, Indigo, Benalla and Alpine council areas, and part of Strathbogie council area. The major cities in the seat are Wodonga and Wangaratta.
History
Indi is an original federation electorate. Apart from four elections when the ALP won the seat, Indi has almost always been won by the Coalition parties and their predecessors.
The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Isaac Isaacs. Isaacs was a radical member of the Protectionist party and did not get along with most of his party. He was appointed Attorney-General in Alfred Deakin’s government in 1905, but in 1906 he was appointed to the High Court. Isaacs served on the High Court for 24 years. In 1930 he was appointed Chief Justice by Labor Prime Minister James Scullin. Shortly after, Scullin decided to break with tradition by appointing an Australian-born Governor-General, and chose Isaacs. Isaacs served as Governor-General until 1936.
Indi was won in 1906 by Anti-Socialist candidate Joseph Brown, a former Victorian state MP. Brown joined the merged Liberal Party in 1909, although he was a fierce critic of Alfred Deakin. He lost Indi in 1910 to the ALP’s Parker Moloney.
Moloney held Indi until the 1913 election, when he lost to the Liberal Party’s Cornelius Ahern, but Moloney won it back in 1914. Moloney lost Indi again in 1917. He went on to move across the border to the neighbouring NSW seat of Hume, which at the time covered Albury. He held Hume from 1919 to 1931, and served as a minister in the Scullin government.
The Nationalist Party’s John Leckie, a Victorian state MP, won Indi in 1917. He lost the seat in 1919 to Robert Cook of the Victorian Farmers’ Union, which became the Country Party.
Cook retained Indi at the 1922 and 1925 elections, but lost the seat in bizarre circumstances in 1928, when he failed to lodge his nomination papers. The seat instead was won by the ALP’s Paul Jones.
Jones was re-elected in 1929, when Cook attempted to retain his seat, before he lost Indi to the United Australia Party’s William Hutchinson in 1931. Jones went on to serve in the Victorian Legislative Council from 1938 and 1958, and left the ALP as part of the split in 1955, ending up in the Democratic Labor Party.
Hutchinson held Indi for two terms. In 1937 he moved to the new seat of Deakin, which he held until his retirement in 1949.
Indi was won in 1937 by the Country Party’s John McEwen, who had previously won the seat of Echuca in 1934. He served as a minister in the Liberal/Country governments from 1937 to 1941.
McEwen left Indi to take the new seat of Murray in 1949, and he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet in the new government. He was elected Country Party leader in 1958, and when Robert Menzies retired in 1966 he became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party. When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired in 1971.
Indi was won in 1949 by Liberal candidate William Bostock. Bostock held the seat until the 1958 election, when he lost to the Country Party’s Mac Holten. Holten was a former footballer, and he served as Minister for Repatriation from 1969 to 1972.
In 1977, Holten was challenged by the Liberal Party’s Ewen Cameron. Despite topping the poll on primary votes, Holten lost when Cameron overtook him on Labor preferences.
Cameron held Indi until his retirement in 1993. He was succeeded in 1993 by the Liberal Party’s Lou Lieberman, a former Victorian state MP and minister. Lieberman served on the Liberal backbench until his retirement at the 2001 election.
In 2001, Indi was won by Sophie Panopoulos (now Mirabella). Mirabella served on the backbench for the entirety of the Howard government, becoming a parliamentary secretary in 2007 and a shadow minister in 2008.
At the 2013 election, Mirabella was defeated by independent candidate Cathy McGowan, who won a very tight contest by 439 votes. McGowan was re-elected with an enlarged margin in 2016.
McGowan retired in 2019 and was succeeded by fellow independent Helen Haines, elected with McGowan’s support. Haines won a second term in 2022.
- Helen Haines (Independent)
- Mitch Bridges (Labor)
- James Trenery (Liberal)
- Athol Thomas (One Nation)
- Alysia Regan (Greens)
- Tim Quilty (Libertarian)
- Michael White (Family First)
- Ben Howman (Legalise Cannabis)
- Mark McFarlane (Independent)
Assessment
Haines has a comfortable margin and is likely to be re-elected.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Helen Haines | Independent | 41,319 | 40.7 | +8.3 |
| Ross Lyman | Liberal | 30,995 | 30.5 | -4.6 |
| Nadia David | Labor | 8,723 | 8.6 | -3.5 |
| Beth Stevens | One Nation | 5,366 | 5.3 | +5.3 |
| Liz Fisher | Nationals | 3,854 | 3.8 | -5.7 |
| Benjamin Gilbert | Greens | 3,626 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| Stephen Williams | United Australia | 2,558 | 2.5 | -1.4 |
| Julian Fidge | Liberal Democrats | 2,300 | 2.3 | +2.3 |
| Angel Aleksov | Animal Justice | 1,749 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Lachlan O’Connell | Hinch’s Justice Party | 1,074 | 1.1 | -1.8 |
| Informal | 5,880 | 5.5 | +1.1 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Helen Haines | Independent | 59,861 | 58.9 | +7.6 |
| Ross Lyman | Liberal | 41,703 | 41.1 | -7.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ross Lyman | Liberal | 56,123 | 55.3 | -7.5 |
| Nadia David | Labor | 45,441 | 44.7 | +7.5 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Wodonga and Indigo council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. The remainder were split into East, South-West and West.
Helen Haines won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 56.5% in the west to 64% in Indigo.
| Voter group | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| West | 56.5 | 9,982 | 9.8 |
| South-West | 58.4 | 7,666 | 7.5 |
| Wodonga | 61.0 | 6,369 | 6.3 |
| East | 59.9 | 6,176 | 6.1 |
| Indigo | 64.0 | 6,088 | 6.0 |
| Pre-poll | 58.3 | 49,579 | 48.8 |
| Other votes | 59.5 | 15,704 | 15.5 |
Election results in Indi at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent MP Helen Haines and the Liberal Party.
Independent hold, I can see a swing to the Independent but a swing away from Labor in the ttp.
As someone who lives here I’d definitely agree with the tpp statement. However on the swing i think the liberals bottomed out and will recover especially if they play the what will you do in the event of a hung parliament. I’ve even told the branch to do so and will be doing that personally. Especially if the guy who dresses up when hands he out flyers turns up. And he will because it’s me.
Sophie really damaged the liberal party brand here. Independent hold
Mick for once we agree on something. I met Sophie at the 2013 candidates forum in Wodonga. She was quite rude to me and basically didn’t show any interest in having a conversation. I still voted out of loyalty to the party but was not surprised. To be honest I found the hap guy quite interesting. The last two candidates were quite good and deserved to win I’m friends with previous candidate Ross Lyman now too after meeting him at several election day vooths across multiple state and federal elections now. and in the street. I haven’t met the new candidate but the members really think he’s got a shot but I think haines will hold on a reduced margin.if she backs a Labor minority govt she will have serious problems in 2028. If the liberals ran any other candidate in 2013 or 2016 they might have won
I do wonder if this is possibly an upset Liberal gain. As mentioned Sophie was toxic, but as some distance has occured that makes her less of a factor and last election was impacted by the Morrison unpopularity.
This election we have some factors that will see a swing to the Liberals, plus this being a regional seat it probably plays better to those factors than the other city Teal seats. On top of that the unpopularity of the Victorian Labor government will also play into things.
A strong Liberal candidate could really rebuild their vote from what was a low point. Also the Independent isn’t the original, possibly not as strong as McGowan was.
One to watch I reckon if the Liberal candidate is any good.
@LNP i live here and the candidate James Trenery is good. but is he good enough? The last two lib candidates were pretty good but they could quite get there in 2019 and in 2022 people were voting against the sitting govt. He will reduce the margin but will it be enough
Trenery seems like a good candidate but i think Haines margin is too great to overcome in just one election but i think it might be close he will certainly cut her margin here
Independent retain
@ john
The liberal party trouble here was the previous liberal mp .. she trashed the liberal party reputation badly.
@mick yea i know i met her once in 2013 at the candidates forum in wodonga for the election even i admit that. however both the candidates in 2019 and 2022 were pretty good. i did protest vote against her in 2016 for the nats.
i received a call from ucomms last night polling here
Liberal signage was pretty significant when I drove through in Benella and Wangaratta, as well as along some outlying farm fences. Haines campaign very active in Indigo and her signs are up in the major towns too, agree that if Dutton gets it together this seat could be a sleeper on the night.
Seems Haines runs a very organised campaign with significant penetration throughout the electorate though, she’ll be really hard to beat without a scandal or a blow-up in the future over who she sides with in minority should it come to that
This might be a surprise on election day I think. We saw 2022 state election the regional independents losing in an unexpected way, and I think that was based upon people being angry with the state government, parking their previous independent votes with the coalition, as a way to guarantee a vote against labor. Haines does run a very organised campaign and she is generally well liked, but these regional areas could swing in a really positive direction to the Libs as a strong protest vote. I’m not saying a win, but I think it’ll be a lot closer and no one has really mentioned it.
@John. How are things looking in Indi at the moment?
Pretty good I imagine their will be a swing towards the libs but I’m not sure it will be enough. I’ve only been at the polling booth for an hour in the morning and an hour in the morning basically at the start and end of the day due to work commitments. Won’t be here on sat either due to being in Sydney.
Hour in the afternoon*
Fair enough. Thank for replying to my question 🙂
Dr Helen Haines has been the most effective MP in federal parliament this term and will increase her majority.
Explain that claim Lex.
Maxim, you can’t even spell the name of the town correctly (Benalla) so it’s hard to trust your take on the likely votes in the seat.
Indi has better mobile phone reception than many areas of suburban Melbourne, despite being geographically unhelpful due to mountains and valleys. The good coverage is primarily down to lobbying by Helen Haines for black spot reduction. Indi also has lots of solar power. Those are just two examples of how the local member has been effective.
The Liberal candidate is basically anonymous. I don’t think the Libs are putting many resources into Indi.