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Independent hold, I can see a swing to the Independent but a swing away from Labor in the ttp.
As someone who lives here I’d definitely agree with the tpp statement. However on the swing i think the liberals bottomed out and will recover especially if they play the what will you do in the event of a hung parliament. I’ve even told the branch to do so and will be doing that personally. Especially if the guy who dresses up when hands he out flyers turns up. And he will because it’s me.
Sophie really damaged the liberal party brand here. Independent hold
Mick for once we agree on something. I met Sophie at the 2013 candidates forum in Wodonga. She was quite rude to me and basically didn’t show any interest in having a conversation. I still voted out of loyalty to the party but was not surprised. To be honest I found the hap guy quite interesting. The last two candidates were quite good and deserved to win I’m friends with previous candidate Ross Lyman now too after meeting him at several election day vooths across multiple state and federal elections now. and in the street. I haven’t met the new candidate but the members really think he’s got a shot but I think haines will hold on a reduced margin.if she backs a Labor minority govt she will have serious problems in 2028. If the liberals ran any other candidate in 2013 or 2016 they might have won
I do wonder if this is possibly an upset Liberal gain. As mentioned Sophie was toxic, but as some distance has occured that makes her less of a factor and last election was impacted by the Morrison unpopularity.
This election we have some factors that will see a swing to the Liberals, plus this being a regional seat it probably plays better to those factors than the other city Teal seats. On top of that the unpopularity of the Victorian Labor government will also play into things.
A strong Liberal candidate could really rebuild their vote from what was a low point. Also the Independent isn’t the original, possibly not as strong as McGowan was.
One to watch I reckon if the Liberal candidate is any good.
@LNP i live here and the candidate James Trenery is good. but is he good enough? The last two lib candidates were pretty good but they could quite get there in 2019 and in 2022 people were voting against the sitting govt. He will reduce the margin but will it be enough
Trenery seems like a good candidate but i think Haines margin is too great to overcome in just one election but i think it might be close he will certainly cut her margin here