Hunter – Australia 2025

John sorry the sda did not look after your interests properly it is about 15 years since I retired. It I have never been involved in selling out union members. .was only a union delegate at times.
But unions are imperfect like the catholic church because they are comprised of faliable human beings. But that doesn’t mean all unions are bad

Umm, Mick Q do you want to look at the Vic ALP Government and the cozy deals it does with the Unions – not all in favour of the workers either. Same with ‘same work same pay’, I agree with the principle but in practice there is a reason employers use agency staff and the long term affect may be to reduce competition as smaller businesses decide not to take on additional orders because the cost of agency staff makes it uneconomic so bigger companies who can absorb the cost get the work.

The reality though is you are 30 years out of date. From the start of Keating onwards Labor have become more and more a party of educated professionals – in part because the only place unions seemed to hold steady was in the public sector. I also find a lot of the left are obsessed with things like the dole and minimum wage rather than improving the lot of the median worker. Not saying the Libs are any better but at least they have a coherent story to tell – improve conditions for business, increase productivity and that increases wages.

The drip down theory does not work takes a long time to fill a pool and some one soon turns off the tap
I have always been pro good unions. Pro social justice pro government intervention
Pro internal alp democracy… if that is 30 years out of date so be it. Issues of the min wage and the level of income support are very much about social justice

Is it possible or likely that Hollie Hughes runs for Hunter in this election?

She lives in Sydney according to the Liberal website. Don’t think Hunter residents would appreciate a parachute.

@aa she’s listed as the senator for hunter which is why I suggested the same thing

She’s the Liberals’ “Patron Senator for the Hunter”. Despite the fact that as far as I can tell, she has no actual connection to the region. She has lived in Sydney’s north shore since 2019, when she moved from Moree.

Mick Q, I think the problem there is ‘Social justice’ and ‘Government intervention’.

Social justice is almost entirely the passion of upper middle class professional women (a slight but only slight exaggeration). Most social justice causes are focussed on small groups rather than broadly society wide, and are pushed by those with the money to give to these causes (and I think we would be shocked to find out how much dark money flows to some of theses causes). A surprisingly large number of these causes are not just exclusive of working class interests but actively work against them.

Same with Government interventions, there are some very good Government programs, but a surprisingly large number are just make work programs for the same professional class I mentioned above.

The Labor party still have the good stuff in their DNA when they want to bring it – the Medicare BB announcement and the Woollies industrial action this weekend for instance. But too much of their focus is not on the needs of the working class and I find it irritating when people claim that shifting to vote for the Liberals is ‘against their interest’, as if Labor are still ‘of the working class’ or even ‘for the working class’ rather than at best ‘appealing to the working class’.

@mostly
Thank you for yr post. The question is
” what is in it for me?”
As you point out.. there are demographic changes occurring.. the teals are another example…upper Middle class deserting the liberals. Lack of rural workers re railway workers in country towns .. so they vote for the nats
I accept stuff that does not directly benefit me
Eg child care I have no children
Cars I don’t drive
Marriage and family law provisions… I’m single
In our economy / society we accept the world does not look after people and some things need to be stopped eg slavery drug/ arms business.Murder for hire
Social Justice is simply about being fair
And redistributing income and wealth.
Why should I own multiple rolls Royce’s whilst some one else sleeps in their cheap car.?
The alp was started by the trade union movement as they saw in the 1890s what the state did to organised Labor
Unions are democratic organisations elected by their workplaces/ membership
The same cannot be said of most companies and businesses. Remember back in olden days children did work in coal mines.
Work choices was an example of libs and nats acting against workers.
The coalition despite their protestations have always been against Medicare and bulk billing.
I sat down over a couple of months and came to the conclusion that the Morrison government was the most corrupt since the rum corps. That is why there did not want a federal icac.
Corruption;
Leppington Triangle
Water Buy backs
Electoral allowances used to pay for a private internet TV station
” wolf of Woy Woy”
Limited tenders lots of time effectively one only
Paladin immigration detention contracts
Appointment of people to multiple quangos against the law.
Non transparent immigration decisions
Morrison ‘s multiple ministerial ( in secret)
This calls into question the role of the gg
The nuclear con which calls into question either honestly or judgement

Probably the most silly thing Dutton said
Was ” yes We will make cuts to spending but We will only tell you the details after We are elected “

I will just say on the Morrison multiple ministries – my suspicion has been this was a GG thing, to ensure the council (I can’t remember what it is called) that is required to promulgate various executive things always had a quorom even if Morrison and the GG were the only two there.

Otherwise, I don’t disagree with all you put, just that the idea that the working class voting against Labor are voting against their interests – I don’t think that has really held true since the Keating prime ministership.

Mick
Many an incoming government has ‘found’ a budget black hole after they were elected. Gives them lots of wriggle room.

Particularly the conservative side.

For someone my age ‘core’ and ‘non core’ promises are still a thing.

Do you agree re corruption?

Are you referring to Tony Burke rushing through citizenship ceremonies? ‘Cause I certainly do.

And no, I don’t think the Morrison Government was corrupt. Incompetent? Definitely, although the current Labor mob are doing a pretty good job of beating them. Stuart Rob would be a standout performer in the current cabinet 🙂

I think corrupt governments are more likely to happen at state level, WA Inc is an obvious example, as was Joe in QLD, and I think when we look back recent VIC ALP and NSW Lib are going to look real bad.

At present, I cannot see a situation where Repacholi loses to Sue Gilroy.
His personal vote should allow him to hold on.

@ mostly
Look who has retired Fletcher Robert
Morrison
Remain Barnaby/ Taylor the water boys
Dutton.. various home affairs
Look up each issue…Eg Leppington Triangle
Julie Quinlivan ( no relative) seat and doctors’ overservicing body
Look up stuff for Klaxton.
Any how Morrison ‘s secret ministeries deal with Gg for his ” charity” bad luck the money was stopped by the Albanese govt .
Also quick ministerial processing of charity outside normal procedures .. Birmingham?? ( not sure)

J.Q
Should read ssat

Look up Michael West as well

Yeah, I have read/watched a lot of Michael West. If he mentioned the sky was blue I would look up and check.

Anyway – we should get this thread back on track.

Jq
Should be aat

Liberal attitude to trade unions?

Stuart Bonds is running for One Nation, this is the only seat where they have a real shot of winning here.

Oh wow is he back again? He polled really well last time he ran, but I thought he quit the party.

@A A,
He did I believe it was over One Nation industrial relations laws. I am not sure why he rejoined.

support”

One Nation might get their highest primary vote outside QLD, possibly even in the country, but I doubt they’d do better than third place.

Stuart Bonds (ONP) got 20% of the primary vote in 2019. It was when the issue of the Adani Carmichael coal mine caused a backlash in regional QLD against Labor and the backlash spilt over to Hunter.

Muswellbrook LGA is heavily dependent on coal mining. It got redistributed out of Hunter and so coal mining is less of an issue in this electorate.

the onp vote could tip this in favour of the coalition due to preferences

I think that One Nation’s vote will rise, but at the expense of the Nationals. Can’t see a Nationals win here, One Nation and the United Australia party will just splinter the conservative vote further.

@ AA UAP or ToP will only poll about 1%

in 2022 when labor came to power labor managed a measely 1.05% increase in 2pp it will swing back around 3% in my opinion at lesat

Alp retain

you heard it here first from Mick Quinlivan. no explanation needed. just plain old retain.

Mick says ALP – john says LNP
current election results
Mick ALP 80 seat majority
John LNP 149 seat majority (they miss out on Indi)

I agree with Mick, Labor retain. On paper this one would go to the Coalition, but Dan Repacholi seems to be a very popular local member with a strong following. I reckon he’ll hold on pretty easily. The One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots vote will increase, because Stuart Bonds and Suellen Wrightson (ToP “leader”) are running, but I expect this to be mostly at the expense of the Nationals. Labor retain, similar margin.

AA, whilst Repacholi is a good fit for this district (being from a blue-collar background), there is still the expected swing against Labor overall. The Coalition under Dutton may actually poll better than expected (like Trump in 2024) and this will imperil many incumbents, even those who are factionally aligned to their district.

A good comparison would be the Ohio Senate election where the incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown (who was seen as a populist and anti-trade figure) narrowly lost to his Republican opponent (Bernie Moreno).

@bazza i never said lnp would win hunter. or even majority for that fact

Repacholi is a really good fit for the seat. We are not looking at 1975 or 1996 or even 2013. I would not be surprised if he got a bit of a swing towards him.

@A A,
Wasn’t it Labor’s primary vote that fell in 2019 whereby the Nationals vote basically held with a small swing against them?

@Votante,
I’m not sure how much effort One Nation put into the seat in 2019, would be interesting to see if they had targeted the seat harder as the narrowly missed out on second place.

‘One Nation

To answer the question about Senator Hughes and Hunter. Whenever a party doesn’t hold a seat they have a duty Senator who is in effect that seat voice for the party

I’m a labor member in the seat of Parkes and since 2017 our duty Senator has been Deb O’Neill who covers Parkes, Calare, Farrier, Riverina and Lyons. So basically more than half of NSW and all regional seats. I can say she is the best duty Senator we have ever had

I spent some time in this seat recently Dan signs are everywhere around Toronto. At some points it seems like one in three houses have them on the front fence.

Alot more ex Sydney retirees in the area, drifting north from other bits of the central coast. Plenty with Liberal voting background. On the current seat boundaries you have to wonder if the Nationals don’t connect with them…