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wouldnt be surprised if the nats finally pick this up though it might be a very marginal retain. cant see them holding in it in 2028 though
I predict a Labor retain. I sense he has a personal vote and might get a sophomore boost. Newcastle is gentrifying and many white-collar professionals commute from a Central Coast and Newcastle Line station to Sydney for work at least one day a week and working remotely for the rest.
There’s no Nationals candidate yet which might suggest they’re not that keen here. Many safer Labor seats and teal seats in NSW already have coalition candidates. It might be time for a Liberal, instead of a National, to run at a future election.
@votante they’re better off running both in places like this Richmond and whitlam. It costs them nothing but a couple grand to nominate which they get back anyway. They then hedge their bets and any vote comes back anyway. I think it will be a Labor retain but reduced margin in line with state wide swing expected.
The Nationals candidate is Sue Gilroy, a businesswoman, former president of the Singleton Business Chamber and the SFF candidate for the 2022 Upper Hunter by-election.
@James yet another SFF candidate has left the party.
It looks like the SFF’s vision of a Katterist party in NSW is well and truly dead.
I actually think the coalition have a good shot at this. Labor only got a minor 1% swing in a good election year. Though Labor could hold it by the skin of their teeth.
The Liberals need to run here. The Nats don’t have any traction on the eastern end (the old Charlton) half of the electorate.
I read somewhere that Dave Sharma says the libs will be announcing candidates for the Hunter seats.
Electioneer, you have a good point about the Liberals running. The electorate has shrunk and is less rural thanks to the redistribution. The western shores of Lake Macquarie attract retirees and a lot of whom moved from capital cities. Perhaps the Liberals would be a better fit given the demographics.
I wouldn’t say the Nationals don’t gain traction. They don’t do too badly in the southern part of Lake Macquarie Council, south of Toronto.
Muswellbrook was basically a 50/50 split with a slight advantage to Labor anyway
@John “the Hunter seats” probably refers to the other three seats (Newcastle, Paterson and Shortland).
Interestingly the actual Newcastle metropolitan area overlaps with all four of those electorates, yet only one is entirely in Newcastle (Newcastle) and another is majority in Newcastle (Shortland).
No way Dan Repacholi loses yeah? He exudes he’s an active local MP on social media at least, but does that translate to direct voter contact?
i dunno Kent i wouldnt be surprised if the coalition wins hre
@Kent Davidson, Dan Repacholi does come across as active, at least on his socials. He’s an ex-tradie and coal miner and pro-coal so he is in the right seat for a start.
Hunter is a prime Dutton target – very anglo, lower income, blue collar and mortgage belt in areas around Cessnock, the PHON primary could be a key factor if it bounces back, there will be no UAP and presumably no Stuart Bonds this time and we are expecting more like a 2019 preference flow.
Probably enough margin for a well-liked incumbent to hold on though
I think he’s got a great chance of holding on, he’s a blue collar larrikin bloke who connects well with his electorate. From what I’ve seen, he’s got a strong local following on social media and seems to be well liked.
Absolutely, Repacholi will hold on.
Unlikely to happen but should Labor lose both Macnamara and Hunter it would be a really bad look – one held by Labor since 1906 and the other since 1910.
They will lose macnamara I think they may hold hunter though. Lcoalition should get it eventually maybe 2028
Hunter shows that it’s important to have the right candidate is important and the ability to connect with the community. This was necessary for Labor in 2022 following Joel Fitzgibbon’s retirement and the massive swing against Labor in 2019. In 2019, the Adani Carmichael mine was a pivotal election issue in coal mining seats and One Nation performed strongly in Hunter, perhaps their best showing outside QLD since relaunching in 2016.
I think the hunter seats are especially vulnerable given the proper ircumstances. Given she was relegated to the unsinkable 4th spot and she’s the senator for the hunter region why doesnt hollie Hughes run here