LIB 6.9%
Incumbent MP
Angus Taylor, since 2013.
Geography
Outer south-western Sydney. Hume covers the Wollondilly council area, most of the Camden council area and small parts of the Liverpool and Penrith council areas. Hume covers the towns and suburbs of Appin, Bargo, Camden, Harrington Park, Leppington, Mount Annan, Narellan, Oran Park, Picton, Tahmoor, Thirlmere, The Oaks, Warragamba and Wilton.
Redistribution
Hume finally contracted to lie entirely within the Greater Sydney region. Hume lost the Goulburn Mulwaree council area to Eden-Monaro, lost the Upper Lachlan council area and the remainder of the Hilltops council area to Riverina, and lost the remainder of the Wingecarribee council area to Whitlam. Hume then gained Leppington, Oran Park and Rossmore from Macarthur and Badgerys Creek and Bradfield from Werriwa. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 7.7% to 6.9%.
History
Hume is an original federation electorate, and originally covered the NSW border region, including the towns of Albury, Gundagai and Cootamundra.
The seat was first won by William Lyne in 1901. Lyne was a Protectionist and had previously been Premier of New South Wales, and a leading opponent of federation.
Lyne had been originally offered the role of Australia’s first Prime Minister by Governor-General Lord Hopetoun, but failed to form a ministry and instead became a minister in Edmund Barton’s first cabinet.
Lyne served in Edmund Barton and Alfred Deakin’s Protectionist cabinets from 1901 to 1904 and 1905 to 1908. Lyne refused to join with Alfred Deakin when the Protectionist and Free Trade parties merged to form the Commonwealth Liberal Party in 1909, and served as an independent until 1913.
Lyne was defeated in 1913 by Commonwealth Liberal Party candidate Robert Patten, who held the seat until his retirement in 1917, when the seat was won by Franc Falkiner (LIB), who had previously held the seat of Riverina from 1913 to 1914. Falkiner abandoned Hume in 1919 in an attempt to move to the Senate.
Parker Moloney (ALP) won Hume in 1919. Moloney had previously held the neighbouring seat of Indi in Victoria from 1910 to 1913 and 1914 to 1917.
Moloney held the seat until 1931, when he was defeated by Thomas Collins of the Country Party. This began a period of Hume being a marginal seat between the ALP and the Country Party until 1974.
Collins was defeated by Arthur Fuller (ALP) in 1943, after serving as a minister in Robert Menzies’ first government.
Fuller was defeated in 1949 by Charles Anderson of the Country Party. Fuller won back the seat in 1951, and Anderson won it back again in 1955. Fuller defeated Anderson for the last time in 1961.
Fuller was defeated by John Pettiitt of the Country Party in 1963. Pettitt held the seat until he was defeated by the ALP’s Frank Olley at the 1972 election. Olley was defeated by Stephen Lusher of the Country Party in 1974. This was the last time the seat was held by the ALP, and the margin for future National and Liberal candidates increased to a safer range.
At the 1984 election, a redistribution saw the Liberal member for Farrer and former Fraser government minister Wal Fife challenge Lusher. Lusher came third and his preferences elected Fife.
Fife held the seat until his retirement at the 1993 election, when a redistribution saw the National member for Gilmore, John Sharp, move to Hume. Sharp served as a minister in the first term of the Howard government before his career was claimed by the travel rorts affair, and he retired in 1998.
The 1998 election saw the seat go to Alby Schultz, previously the Liberal member for the state seat of Burrinjuck since 1988. Schultz came first on primary votes, with the National candidate reduced to fourth place behind One Nation.
The 2000 redistribution saw Hume move into the Southern Highlands, and saw Macarthur move into more marginal territory in south-western Sydney. Finance Minister John Fahey, former NSW premier and member for Macarthur, planned to run for preselection in Hume, into which his home base of the Southern Highlands had been redistributed. Fahey, however, decided to retire due to ill-health, freeing up Schultz to run for re-election.
Schultz held Hume for five terms, and retired in 2013. Hume was won in 2013 by Angus Taylor. Taylor has been re-elected three times. Taylor served as a cabinet minister from 2018 until 2022, and has served as shadow treasurer since the Coalition lost power in 2022.
Assessment
The redistribution significantly changed Hume, finishing a process of turning Hume from a regional seat into an outer suburban seat, but it didn’t make much of a difference to the Liberal margin. The new areas are likely more volatile and could produce bigger swings in a less favourable environment for the Liberal Party but in current circumstances Taylor should comfortably win re-election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Angus Taylor | Liberal | 45,177 | 43.1 | -10.2 | 42.5 |
| Greg Baines | Labor | 20,864 | 19.9 | -6.7 | 24.2 |
| Penny Ackery | Independent | 16,045 | 15.3 | +15.3 | 10.3 |
| Rebecca Thompson | One Nation | 7,700 | 7.3 | +7.4 | 7.9 |
| Karen Stewart | Greens | 5,194 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 5.7 |
| Garry Dollin | United Australia | 4,780 | 4.6 | -0.3 | 5.5 |
| Ross Seller | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 3,108 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 2.0 |
| Joaquim De Lima | Liberal Democrats | 770 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 1.1 |
| Sheneli Dona | Independent | 1,124 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 8,040 | 7.1 | +0.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Angus Taylor | Liberal | 60,467 | 57.7 | -5.3 | 56.9 |
| Greg Baines | Labor | 44,295 | 42.3 | +5.3 | 43.1 |
Booths have been split into four parts. Polling places in the Camden council area have been split into East Camden and West Camden. The remainder has been split into north-west and south.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 51.4% in East Camden to 65.8% in the north-west.
| Voter group | IND prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| East Camden | 5.9 | 51.4 | 15,392 | 17.2 |
| South | 16.4 | 55.2 | 13,056 | 14.6 |
| West Camden | 15.2 | 58.6 | 10,351 | 11.6 |
| North-West | 10.3 | 65.8 | 8,026 | 9.0 |
| Pre-poll | 10.6 | 58.2 | 29,903 | 33.4 |
| Other votes | 10.0 | 55.1 | 12,855 | 14.3 |
Election results in Hume at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and independent candidates.
This electorate might be the one that has shrunk the most owing to the redistribution.
I’m tipping Angus Taylor retains with a swing to him.
Goulburn was removed from Hume in the redistribution. In 2022, an independent candidate from Goulburn scored really well there but less so in SW Sydney. With her absence, Taylor will recover his primary vote.
The removal of Goulburn will help his vote due to the fact that the area it now occupies is Liberal territory. The new seat most people drew was arou d this area and tipped to be a Liberal seat.
The independent is not running apparently. She says the personal abuse that she and her family suffered was too much.
If Labor can figure out how to get back in Fowler and not fall off in Werriwa, then they can’t be ruled out here. At the state level Wollondilly is Ind held and Camden is Labor held, both 2023 gains. Labor would at least have scope to run a real campaign and do internal polling here. We should be able to tell how seriously they’re taking the seat soon.
Angus Taylor is high profile but not necessarily for positive reasons. What does that mean for the suburban growth areas and the the areas newly coming into the division from safe Labor seats?
Likely Lib retain but more interesting than usual due to the redistribution and greater question of how well Labor is doing in outer suburbs
@blue no john labor wont win Fowler Hume and will have problems in werriwa. If Carbone runs in Mcmahon bowen is likely to lose that. Jason Clare could be in trouble in Blaxland and the libs are likly to put on a good show in Parramatta. labors game this election is gonna be purely defenseive they may not have many resources to spare to go on the ttack. Hume will reelect angus taylor this is solid liberal territory
This seat should not be a problem for Angus Taylor this time.But when Labor is popular enough to win Government,he will need to watch out.
The mortgage stress will lead to protest votes against Labor. Camden LGA, where most people in Hume are, is one of the worst for mortgage stress. Mike Freelander had a strong personal vote in Macarthur and the inclusion of Leppington and Oran Park into Hume means that Labor support would drop.
It’s interesting seeing Angus Taylor as a rep for SW Sydney as historically he’s been associated with Goulburn and the Southern Highlands.
Liberal retain with a solid swing. Now that Angus Taylor is fairly well-known, he shouldn’t be in any danger
@nick G the parts removed were draggin down his vote
The boundaries here now are much more sensible. In a very good election Labor could be competitive here.
I understand Mr Taylor could lose in a liberal party preselection further down the track
doubtfuk
John, Mick might have a point in that Labor could win Hume but only under a landslide type environment (2007 style result or better), and that would have to coincide with Angus Taylor’s retirement.
But you are correct that outcome would be unlikely to occur for the foreseeable future, even though the Liberal Party holds none of the 3 overlapping state districts (Camden and Leppington are Labor held, with Wollondilly held by teal independent Judy Hannan).
@yoh an yea but we all know people vote differently at state level then they do at federal because they are voting on different issues.
also im pretty sure leppington is not in HUme and that was a new district with no sitting member both Wollondill and Camden are on small margins won in a year when the Libs were on the way out due to an aging govt and the labor party couldnt even manage a majority. id expect both Wollondilly and Camden to be retaken in 2027 and Leppington maybe an outside chance especially if Albos in got still.
His margin is still over 7% in a year when there was a strong swing against the Liberal party. his margin will likely return to 10%+ this election and even stronger in 2028.
Furthermore i reckon the Liberal opposition in Nsw has a good chance of defeating the first term Minns govt in 2027 as they only need to win effectively the 6 marginals which are traditional liberal seats. If albo is stil in office in 2027 they wlll likely be returned in majority
Today, when asked if a future Coalition government would continue to support Ukraine, Angus Taylor replied “We’re fully supportive of the Ukraine at this time”.
At. This. Time.
My first reaction was: Fantastic. Great move. Well done Angus.
My second reaction is to wonder whether Taylor has seen the episode of The Thick Of It, where Malcolm Tucker berates Nicola Murray for saying the Prime Minister is the right man “for the moment”.
If you know, you know.
@Real Talk I think he was referring to “this time” as the current situation.
As for whether the Coalition will support Ukraine, I guarantee they will.
Previous Coalition governments were supportive of Ukraine since the Russo-Ukrainian War began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (this is going back to Tony Abbott, followed by Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison).
The only “benefit” that Peter Dutton would find in not supporting Ukraine would be that Donald Trump might like him more. But it really doesn’t make a difference other than making us look stupid if we supported the barbaric invasion, since Australia doesn’t have much of a say when it comes to issues outside our region since we’re not in NATO.
Australia has a special vested interest in Ukraine because of the shooting down of MH17 and the large numbers of Australian citizens and residents on board. Cuddling up to Trump is almost tantamount to cuddling up to Putin. Peter Dutton was quick off the mark the other day to support Ukraine. I think a Dutton government might have more influence in Washington than Labor if things get sticky.
Should Dutton be silly enough to not support Ukraine…then he is gon̈none
He will match Labor here.!
With DJT in charge usa is heading for….
Fill in the details.
Ukraine will have minimum impact on this election
In a interview asked about costings
Angus said
We voted against $100 m worth of al0 proposals…so now problems
Which cuts?
These laws would already have been
Legislated so need to reverse via new laws
Liberals not ready to govern
@Mick I’m confused as to what you mean by “AL0”. Do you mean ALP?
Alp must be typo or automatic cortect
id say typo auto corect owuld not change alp to al0 also they are right next to each other on the keyboard so hes probably hit the wrong key by accident.
@ john
Probably right… typing ain’t one of my skills.
Even worse with the old typewriters.
In 1970’s I did a essay at uni.. took me
Ages… was told to either write it or hire someone
we all do it dw
I said in my earlier comment we’d be able to tell soon how seriously Labor are taking the seat. So far, doesn’t seem like they’re taking it seriously at all, unless they have a high profile candidate waiting in the wings for a splashy launch.
No Climate 200 candidate either to get the vote that carried Judy Hannan in Wollondilly (although Hannan wasn’t Climate 200 linked and may have done worse if she was).
Amgus Taylor won’t need to spend much time here.
Taylor will probly get a swing back to him here