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This electorate might be the one that has shrunk the most owing to the redistribution.
I’m tipping Angus Taylor retains with a swing to him.
Goulburn was removed from Hume in the redistribution. In 2022, an independent candidate from Goulburn scored really well there but less so in SW Sydney. With her absence, Taylor will recover his primary vote.
The removal of Goulburn will help his vote due to the fact that the area it now occupies is Liberal territory. The new seat most people drew was arou d this area and tipped to be a Liberal seat.
The independent is not running apparently. She says the personal abuse that she and her family suffered was too much.
If Labor can figure out how to get back in Fowler and not fall off in Werriwa, then they can’t be ruled out here. At the state level Wollondilly is Ind held and Camden is Labor held, both 2023 gains. Labor would at least have scope to run a real campaign and do internal polling here. We should be able to tell how seriously they’re taking the seat soon.
Angus Taylor is high profile but not necessarily for positive reasons. What does that mean for the suburban growth areas and the the areas newly coming into the division from safe Labor seats?
Likely Lib retain but more interesting than usual due to the redistribution and greater question of how well Labor is doing in outer suburbs
@blue no john labor wont win Fowler Hume and will have problems in werriwa. If Carbone runs in Mcmahon bowen is likely to lose that. Jason Clare could be in trouble in Blaxland and the libs are likly to put on a good show in Parramatta. labors game this election is gonna be purely defenseive they may not have many resources to spare to go on the ttack. Hume will reelect angus taylor this is solid liberal territory