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Liberal hold. Jenny Ware should get enough of a sophomore surge and the absence of a teal (for now) should increase her vote enough to hold on.
Interesting that on these boundaries Labor would have won here in 2007.
@SpaceFish unsurprising given it should be an area Labor focuses on, it’s just not.
It’s sandwiched between the Liberal-voting, blue ribbon Shire and Labor-voting, working-class Wollongong in the east and Labor-voting, working-class Campbelltown, the ethnic yet now politically diverse Liverpool area and the Liberal-voting, rural Southern Highlands. So you’d think it’d be a pretty mixed, centrist seat. Federal Labor just underperforms even though the last MP was literally Craig Kelly.
This electorate looks like three geographically-separated pieces randomly joined up together.
Jenny Ware will score a swing. Presumably, there won’t be Craig Kelly or a teal running. The redistribution has removed the teal-ish areas of Oyster Bay and the eastern part of Jannali.
I’ve long thought that the swing away from Labor will correlate with mortgage/rental stress. West of the Georges River has some mortgage belt territory but is newer and lower-income. There are large South Asian and Indo-Fijian communities. There might be some anti-Labor swings due to the Palestine issue amongst the South Asian Muslim communities. Further north-east, Moorebank, Holsworthy and Hammondville are mortgage belt suburbs but are more established and middle-class.
@Nether Portal, I don’t agree that Labor should’ve focused on this. It hasn’t been that winnable for Labor since 1996. The Liberals tends to get 55% to 60% 2PP. It was mainly Sutherland Shire-based with a bit of Liverpool LGA in it for decades. Sutherland Shire is mainly Anglo-Celtic and is quite conservative. The Liverpool part was either very small or contained Moorebank, Holsworthy and Hammondville – they tended to vote Liberal with a 2PP of low to mid 50s.
Think liberal retain
All of Menai in the seat.
Nsw state election figures an alp won