LNP 10.1%
Incumbent MP
Vacant.
Geography
Central Queensland. Hinkler covers the city of Bundaberg and rural areas south of the city.
History
Hinkler was created in 1984. It has been held by the National Party for most of the last quarter-century. The seat was originally considered notionally Labor when it was created in 1984.
Hinkler was won in 1984 by the Nationals’ Bryan Conquest, who only held the seat until 1987, when Labor’s Brian Courtice won Hinkler. Paul Neville won the seat in 1993 and held the seat for the next twenty years.
Neville’s margin was cut to less than 2% in 2007, but a swing of 8.9% in 2010 strengthened his hold on the seat.
Neville retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Keith Pitt held onto the seat despite a small 1.3% swing back to Labor. Pitt has been re-elected three times.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Keith Pitt retired from parliament in January 2025.
- David Batt (Liberal National)
- Tyler Carman (One Nation)
- Andrew McLean (Greens)
- Trish Mears (Labor)
- Kerry Petrus (Family First)
Assessment
Hinkler is a safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Keith Pitt | Liberal National | 42,720 | 42.1 | -3.9 |
| Jason Scanes | Labor | 23,634 | 23.3 | +0.4 |
| Jack Dempsey | Independent | 13,236 | 13.1 | +13.1 |
| Zak Menhennett | One Nation | 8,837 | 8.7 | -6.1 |
| Kristie Nash | United Australia | 7,417 | 7.3 | +2.9 |
| Andrew McLean | Greens | 5,562 | 5.5 | +1.8 |
| Informal | 3,431 | 3.3 | -4.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Keith Pitt | Liberal National | 60,918 | 60.1 | -4.4 |
| Jason Scanes | Labor | 40,488 | 39.9 | +4.4 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Hinkler covers parts of Bundaberg and Fraser Coast council areas. Those in the Fraser Coast council area, including Hervey Bay, have been grouped together. Those in Bundaberg Region have been split between those in the Bundaberg urban area, those rural booths near Bundaberg as Woongarra, and those to the south of Bundaberg as Isis (the name of the former council).
More than half of the total vote was cast through pre-poll voting, so the geographic breakdown only covers a minority of votes.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 54.3% in Bundaberg to 67.3% in Isis.
Independent candidate Jack Dempsey came third, with a primary vote ranging from 9.8% in Fraser Coast to 18.4% in Bundaberg.
| Voter group | IND prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Fraser Coast | 9.8 | 58.7 | 13,900 | 13.7 |
| Bundaberg | 18.4 | 54.3 | 11,790 | 11.6 |
| Woongarra | 15.0 | 59.9 | 4,819 | 4.8 |
| Isis | 10.8 | 63.7 | 1,682 | 1.7 |
| Pre-poll | 12.9 | 60.8 | 52,295 | 51.6 |
| Other votes | 12.0 | 62.7 | 16,920 | 16.7 |
Election results in Hinkler at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and independent candidate Jack Dempsey.
Hinkler contains
1. 100% of Bundaberg
2. Burnett-64%
3. Hervey Bay-100%
4. Maryborough-32%
Will post the booths tommorow
Bundaberg alp 51.5
Hervey Bay alp 42
Maryborough alp 47.5
Burnett alp 37%
From memory
@Nimalan thanks!
Booths
1. Alloway
2. Apple Tree Creek
3. Avoca
4. Bargara
5. Branyan
6. Bundaberg Central
7. Bundaberg East
8. Bundaberg North
9. Bundaberg North west
10. Bundaberg South
11. Bundaberg West
12. Burnett Heads
13. Burrum Heads
14. Childers
15. Cordalba
16. Elliot Heads
17. Givelda
18. Goodwood
19.Harvey Bay PPVC
20. Howard
21. Kalkie
22. Kawaungan
23. Kepnock
24. Maryboriugh PPVC
25. Norville
26. Pialba
27. Pialba North
28. River Heads
29. Thabeban
30. Toogoom
31. Urangan
32. Urangan West
33. Urraween
34. Walkervale
35. Woodgate
36. Woongarra
37. Yarraille
@ NP i have also got Dawson ready and posted in the Dawson thread.
@Nimalan thanks, will do.
State TPP here (2024):
* LNP: 56.1%
* Labor: 43.9%
Labor did 4.0% better here on the state level than on the federal level thanks to strong personal votes from Bundaberg MP Tom Smith (who was surprisingly re-elected with a small swing to him in what was the most marginal seat in all of Australia) and Maryborough MP Bruce Saunders (who was narrowly defeated on preferences).
If we break it down by city or major town, Labor won most of the booths in Bundaberg and Maryborough (the town itself) while the LNP won most if not all of them in Hervey Bay. It was rural areas (especially those in Burnett) that won it for the LNP, which are located in the seats of Burnett and Maryborough.
Nationals/LNP MP for Hinkler Keith Pitt is retiring at the next election, citing concerns with net-zero targets and the Nationals’ leadership.
Keith Pitt has announced his retirement.
I wonder if Barnaby Joyce will retire as he is also opposed to net zero while David Littleproud and Bridget Mackenzie now support net zero.
Doubtful. Barnaby is in a different position from Keith Pitt. QLD nats are in an awkward position of having to support net zero since the Libs and nats are in a combined party and they want to win city votes. All other Nats can do as they please since they are seperate.
Barnaby Joyce signed on to NetZero whe he was leader first time around.
Joyce is playing Ducks & Drakes on the issue, it doesn’t win many votes they don’t already hold, but it’s voter poison in the Liberals metro seats and for their Senate vote.
Nationals have 2 Senators up for Election ni Qld in ’25, uncertanity over their netzero position makes it harder for that 2nd Nat Senator.
That’s incorrect. Only one Nat is up Susan MacDonald.
Canavan isn’t up this election.
On Hinkler, the timing of the Pitt resignation is curious. The failed Bundaberg candidate from the state election is the Fruit and Veg Growers representative and I always thought that would have suited Burnett long term (noting that was held by a sitting member) rather than the town seat of Bundaberg.
Likewise Hinkler would have suited her, but potentially the failure to win Bundaberg might hurt her chances of preselection here. I wonder if Pitt knew he would chuck the towel in before encouraging her to run in Bundaberg?
A few other names are floating around, including real estate agents, a young professional and local councillors. The timing is awkward for any local councillors from Hervey Bay or Bundaberg as it’s less than a year into the term.
The Hervey Bay tried to take the candidacy when Paul Neville retired. They certainly will try again here. Scott Rowe is a Hervey Bay name to watch.
Keith Pitt has been announced as the next ambassador to the Holy See.
Jobs for the other sides boys is a good way of avoiding grief.
QLD Labor have selected Trish Mears as their candidate for Hinkler.
Former Bundaberg state MP David Batt will be the LNP candidate for Hinkler.
Any chance there is a swing to labor? There was in bundaberg in 2024
@dragons qld votes differently at state and federal level also it may due to the retirement of Keith Pitt so bovious loss of personal vote
There will be a swing to Labor here
Esp if Jack Dempsey recontests
Dempsey is the chief executive of a Cape York council and no longer lives there. He isn’t re-contesting. I heard a rumour about a well funded independent running with a public profile and similar background to Zali Steggall.
Andrew McLean for the Greens is the only candidate who does not live in Hinkler. Despite a significant number of high profile and dedicated environmentalists in the Hinkler region the Greens have once again been unable to find a local candidate.