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Labor hold with a large swing away from them.
Agree with that.
Safest seat that the Liberals could actually win especially because the demographics have changed a lot since the last election
It is mortgage belt growth areas not really a case of gentrification etc. inflation and interest rates will be the issue not social issues
I think at this stage the margin is too large however, if the state government become really unpopular that could drag Labor down here and if federal track even worse then maybe but I’d still say Labor are the favourites to hold here with a reduced margin.
@SpaceFish, I think the State Government is probably unpopular around Melton hence why the state margins for the seat of Melton underperformed compared to federal margins and pre-2018 alongside the messy number of independents for the state seat of Melton
If I recall correctly parts of the state seat of Niddrie are in this seat now such as Tullamarine (where Melbourne Airport is)?
Niddrie is a key seat and despite being held by Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, the way Victorian Labor’s going and the “it’s time” factor both mean that it’s very possible he could lose his seat to the Liberals.
Niddrie takes in suburbs like Tullamarine which votes Liberal as well as the more Liberal parts of Essendon. I feel like airport areas are usually Liberal booths with the exception of Mascot (Sydney Airport): Eagle Farm, Tullamarine and (like the rest of the Gold Coast) Coolangatta and Bilinga are all Liberal.
@NP, I think you meant the Keilor (not Tullamarine) which mostly votes Liberal as it is affluent as well as the rural areas that are west of the airport. The suburb Tullamarine votes Labor (although there was an anti-lockdown swing) and is not in the the seat of Niddrie but in the seat of Sunbury
@Marh doesn’t Melbourne Airport vote Liberal?
Just had a look at it. Federally Tullamarine voted 57.8% Labor on TPP in 2022 with a –4.5% swing against Labor on TPP. So I would say it’s competitive.
@ Nether Portal
I would say Tullamarine is probably working class but no where near as poor as Broadmeadows, Meadow Heights etc. It is less diverse and with fewer muslims. Gladstone Park is more lower middle Class a bit like Endevour hills in Bruce. Keilor is affluent and Nidderie, Essendon West etc are increasing affluent the seat of Nidderie is a bit of a transition zone between middle class/working class. It is less diverse for NW Melbourne also fewer Muslims. it is most Catholic seat in Victoria and has a lot of Italians. Sunbury is probably also a target seat as it more middle class. Sunbury itself is a bit like Camden it is seperated from the urban sprawl of Melbourne due to the airport flight path and has a country town feel to it.
@NP, if you meant the polling booths for the airport (which I can’t find), I would it is not representative as there are very few votes as no one lives nearby hence votes tend to be distorted
@Marh yeah I thought for some reason Tullamarine was a very Liberal suburb. Turns it out it’s a competitive suburb that voted Labor last time.
@Nimalan if Sunbury is like Camden does that mean the Liberals could win it? Camden was a Liberal seat from 2011 until 2023 (and had two sitting Liberal members during that time: Chris Patterson until 2019 and Peter Sidgreaves until he lost to Labor’s Sally Quinnell in 2023). Camden is a marginal seat and will be a key seat in 2027 if Mark Speakman’s Coalition is to make Chris Minns’ Labor government a one-term one.
@ NP
I would say Sunbury has has a Cook PVI on average of about +2-3% Labor so it is a marginal seat with a slight Labor lean. During the Kennett years the Libs held the seat which was named Tullamarine and covered much the same area. Removal of level crossings and Metro tunnel will help Labor somewhat in Sunbury. However, delay to Airport Rail link will hurt Labor in the southern part and especially the seat of Nidderie as Airport rail will take cars of the Tulla Freeway. Also Skybus which is the bus that runs from Southern Cross station in Docklands to Airport is quite expensive and during peak hours can take sometime. So it is certainly winnable for Libs in a good election.
MRP polling has Labor in serious trouble here 50/50 tpp, seems to further away from capital cities the more violent the swing away from the government seems to be. It will be interesting to see what the impact has with state Liberal party civil war has done to the brand, Labor’s only hope is that it carries on into next year and for the next state election.
what do we think of this seat moving?
@John – my honest opinion I’m leaning towards a Liberal gain. They already have an active candidate in Simmone Cottom who to my knowledge has been visited by Dutton a few times. This is a classic fast-growing seat with new families that I feel would be happy to back the Liberals, especially due to federal and state Labor having stuffed up hard here.
Sam Rae seems like a typical line-toer MP who hasn’t really stood up for the electorate. No clue if he’s a parachute or not but either way I feel like there would be better candidates out there in Labor preselection.
@james it definitely wasnt on my radar until i heard the libs were targetting it. its a reletively new seat made up of voters from a few seats at the last election. if the libs dont win it this time and can knock the margin to 3-4% and are still in opposition in 2028 after 3 years of minority it would be well within range.
Mrp not I tended for individual seat polling.
Looking at only 1 blue in sea of red .
Appears alp retain even 2004 was not close to lib win