LNP 6.9% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Garth Hamilton, since 2020.
Geography
Groom covers the city of Toowoomba and rural areas to the west of the city. The electorate is contained entirely within the Toowoomba Region council area.
History
Groom was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. The seat has always been held by Coalition MPs.
Groom was first won in 1984 by the National Party’s Tom McVeigh. McVeigh had been Member for Darling Downs since the 1972 election, and was elected Member for Groom in 1984 when Darling Downs was abolished. Darling Downs had previously centred on Toowoomba, which became the centre of the new seat of Groom.
McVeigh retired in 1988, triggering a by-election. The Liberal Party contested the by-election, and their candidate Bill Taylor outpolled the Nationals by 4.5% on primary votes and won a substantial majority on Labor preferences.
Taylor held the seat for a decade, retiring in 1998. The Nationals again challenged for the seat, but fell into fourth place behind Labor and One Nation, with the Liberal Party’s Ian Macfarlane winning the seat.
Macfarlane was made a junior minister in January 2001, and joined the Howard cabinet after the 2001 election as Minister for Industry, Tourism and Resources, a role he held for the remainder of the Howard government. Macfarlane served as a frontbencher while the Coalition was in opposition, and as a cabinet minister during the Abbott government.
Macfarlane was dropped from the ministry when Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. He attempted to switch from the Liberal party room to the Nationals party room, but the LNP state executive blocked the proposal.
Macfarlane retired at the 2016 election, and was replaced by John McVeigh, who won the seat easily. McVeigh had held the state electorate of Toowoomba South since 2012, but resigned from that state seat to contest the federal election.
McVeigh was re-elected in 2019, but resigned from parliament in September 2020.
The 2020 by-election was won by LNP candidate Garth Hamilton, and Hamilton won a full term in 2022.
- Richard Edwards (Labor)
- Garth Hamilton (Liberal National)
- Suzie Holt (Independent)
- Rebecca Konz (One Nation)
- Alyce Nelligan (Greens)
- Kirstie Smolenski (Independent)
- Alexandra Todd (Family First)
Assessment
Groom is a reasonably safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Garth Hamilton | Liberal National | 41,971 | 43.7 | -9.6 |
| Gen Allpass | Labor | 17,985 | 18.7 | +0.1 |
| Grant Abraham | One Nation | 9,181 | 9.6 | -3.5 |
| Suzie Holt | Independent | 7,932 | 8.3 | +8.3 |
| Kirstie Smolenski | Independent | 6,858 | 7.1 | +7.1 |
| Mickey Berry | Greens | 5,616 | 5.8 | -2.1 |
| Melissa Bannister | United Australia | 4,922 | 5.1 | +1.2 |
| Ryan Otto | Federation Party | 1,539 | 1.6 | +1.6 |
| Informal | 4,758 | 4.7 | +1.5 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Garth Hamilton | Liberal National | 54,612 | 56.9 |
| Suzie Holt | Independent | 41,392 | 43.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Garth Hamilton | Liberal National | 61,610 | 64.2 | -6.3 |
| Gen Allpass | Labor | 34,394 | 35.8 | +6.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. A majority of the population lives in the Toowoomba, and these booths were split into two halves: north and south. The booths outside of the Toowoomba urban area have also been split into north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 56.2% in northern Toowoomba to 72.4% in the rural south.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.9% in southern Toowoomba to 14.2% in the rural south.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Toowoomba North | 10.0 | 56.2 | 13,471 | 14.0 |
| Toowoomba South | 8.9 | 58.4 | 13,206 | 13.8 |
| North | 12.8 | 68.8 | 9,504 | 9.9 |
| South | 14.2 | 72.4 | 5,336 | 5.6 |
| Pre-poll | 8.5 | 63.1 | 31,993 | 33.3 |
| Other votes | 8.7 | 70.0 | 22,494 | 23.4 |
Election results in Groom at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs independent candidate Suzie Holt), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.
Susie Holt may run again for this seat as her Facebook page still says “Suzie Holt 4 Groom” & is still active
@Caleb that doesn’t mean much.
It’s actually a worthwhile observation, thank you Caleb. Certainly more meaningful than much of the amateur psephology one may encounter.
Holt did extremely well in 2022, but I think if she were to run again she would find it much trickier as she’s not running against the LNP government per se. I think a lot of her vote was down to a protest from LNP voters who wanted to send a note of discontent against the sitting PM but did not want to vote Labor.
Given the government has changed, you would expect the anti-government vote will coalesce solidly behind the LNP with a smattering of One Nation on the side. The LNP will win 50%+ on primaries but not due to the talents of the sitting member, but a combination of rusted-on conservatism and a Labor government in Canberra.
Holt did extremely well in 2022
@NQ View
Susie Holt came fourth on the primary vote with 8.3%. And the Labor candidate beat Holt by over 10% on the primary vote. But preferences were able to weave her into the final two party preferred vote. I think it’s been exaggerated how well she did. I’m not sure if Groom is a prime target for the teals, unlike like a seat such as Bradfield.
If finishing in the final 2PP vote as an independent, and driving the LNP down to its lowest 2PP tally since the seat was established isn’t ‘doing extremely well’, then I’m not sure what else there is to say. There was zero expectation of Holt doing as well as she did.
Suzie Holt just released a Campaign video a couple of days ago
@Caleb – she’s confirmed she is running again.
@ Nether Portal
Groom contains
1. 100% of Toowoomba North
2. 100% of Toowomba South
3. 87% of Condamine
Booths will be posted sometime today i actually think there will be little difference as there is no overlapping Labor held seat
@Nimalan I agree, same as Maranoa.
booths/suburbs
1. Biddeston
2. Bowenville
3. Cambooya
4. Centenary Heights
5. Darling Heights
6. Drayton
7. Fairview Heights (Wilsonton)
8. Gebbinbar
9. Geham
10. Glenvale
11. Gooombugee
12. Harlaxton
13. Harristown
14. Highfields
15. Jondaryan
16. Kingsthorpe
17. Kulpi
18. Meringandan
19.Middle Ridge
20. Mount Lofty
21. Mount Tyson
22. Newtown
23. Oakley
24. Pittsworth
25. Quinalow
26. Rangeville
27. Rockville
28. Southbrook
29. The Range
30. Toowoomba booths
31. Tor Street North
32. Wellcamp
33. Wilsonton
24. Wilstonton Heights
25. Wyreema
@Nimalan thanks, will calculate soon.
State level TPP here (2024):
* LNP: 67.7%
* Labor: 32.3%
Labor actually did 3.5% worse on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022, which is a surprise but also not a surprise.
In 2022 there were lots of people who voted independent and may have just followed the HTV card and accidentally preferenced Labor.
Plus, it appears that Trevor Watts is more popular than David Janetski despite Janetski being higher up in Cabinet, since Watts’ seat of Toowoomba North (which was once a Labor seat) is now safer than the traditionally more conservative seat of Toowoomba South (Janetski’s seat), which hasn’t been held by Labor since its first member Peter Wood who held it from 1972 until 1974. Toowoomba North is the seat with most of the CBD too hence it’s traditionally less conservative.
To break it down, in the urban parts of Groom (Toowoomba) the LNP got 64.8% of the TPP vote in 2024, while in the rural parts they got 73.7%.
Np: I noticed that too
Now to shift Highlands out of Toowoomba Nth
Prior to the dlp split Labor held both Towoomba seats . . 1957 Duggan lost his Toowoomba seat whilst the other was held by les Wood unfortunately he died.
Duggan won the by-election and held the seat till he retired in 1969.
Labor held both Toowoomba seats till the disaster of 1974. Then the pattern of Toowoomba nth being the seat Labor won on occasions was set in.place. peter wood was les Woods son
@Mick Quinlivan I feel like Labor under Peter Beattie and Anna Bligh were competitive in parts of the Gold Coast and in Toowoomba but not so much on the Sunshine Coast. When Campbell Newman’s LNP won in 2012 in a massive landslide Labor lost all of those seats. However, under Annastacia Palaszczuk, Labor were competitive on the Sunshine Coast (having won two seats there in 2020) and less so on the Gold Coast (where Labor only has one seat, Gaven, which has been a Labor seat since 2017). Note that the Gold Coast has more seats than the Sunshine Coast because it’s more populated (there are 11 seats on the Gold Coast and seven seats on the Sunshine Coast, so 2/7 is much more than 1/11).
In the recent Queensland election, the Labor candidate for Toowoomba South campaigned for around 4 months leading up to the election. In Toowoomba North, the candidate was only announced just before close of nominations and there was no visible campaign.
Peter Wood had an identical twin brother, Bill, who was an MP in North Queensland from 1969 to 1974 and then spent 15 years as an MP in the ACT Legislative Assembly.
@Watson Watch neither seats were in play though, Queensland Labor’s basically given up on Toowoomba because they have so much ground in Brisbane.
Nether Portal,
I never made any comments about who or what was in or out of play.
My comment was simply an explanation for the difference in the voting pattern in the two seats at the most recent election.
Kerry Shine missed out on winning Towoomba nth narrowly in 2015.
There Was then a redistribution which proposed to Remove Highlands from the seat to Condamine I think.. there were many submissions encouraged by lnp to reverse this and it was
There would be a very interesting history of the politics of Towoomba which could be written.
Gordon chalk was a friend of Jack Duggan despite their political differences.
I would not write off the chances of an alp win in Towoomba…. but at best it would be 2 elections away
The distance from Towoomba to Brisbane is approx 120 km… so this may encourage growth.
And change the nature of the City.
@Watson Watch I know but it definitely adds something. Whitsunday had a massive swing because Labor fielded a candidate so late and she campaigned so badly.
Nether Portal,
Which year?
Labor fielded female candidates in Whitsunday at every election from 1989 to 2020 inclusive. 2024 was their first male candidate in Whitsunday since 1986.
@Watson Watch *he campaigned late and poorly
Please provide details of what you mean by ‘late and poorly’.
@Watson Watch have a look at the Whitsunday thread, that has some details.
QLD Labor have selected Richard Edwards as their candidate for Groom.
Was in the area over the weekend for a wedding – saw a fair few Holt signs but few others. She didn’t do too well last time though.
Spent some time in this electorate yesterday, both in Toowoomba itself and in some rural towns. Almost every street corner in Toowoomba had LNP, Susie Holt and Kirstie Smolenski signs. Smolenski also had a large banner in the centre of town. Interestingly, Susie Holt (climate 200 backed) used blue and orange on her signs, and Kirstie Smolenski used teal on her signs. There were also a lot of One Nation and Labor signs up in Toowoomba.
I think I said previously that Susie Holt wouldn’t make the 2PP, but I honestly don’t know now. It’ll be a certain LNP retain, but interesting to see who gets to 2nd place. I could see Smolenski, Holt, Labor or One Nation making the 2PP.
I’d say it will be lnp v Ind again. Hamiltons vote should recover. Easy lnp retain.
Susie Holt is a Climate 200 backed candidate i.e one of Simon Holmes a Court minions. Smolenski is a Teal but the Climate 200 site doesn’t mention her. Wouldn’t be surprised if Simon backs her with money.
I don’t think Kirstie Smolenski is a teal. She isn’t affiliated with Climate 200, and doesn’t have a “voices of” group backing her.