Griffith – Australia 2025

As much as the 3-way contests are fun for the stats, they are pretty stupid from an electoral fairness perspective. We really shouldn’t have a situation where Liberal supporters would be better off first pref-ing Labor to avoid the Greens winning, it does create an almost FPTP-like situation, albeit significantly less common. Does anyone know of any talk about solving this or is it too niche for anyone to really care?

The solution is to not use single member electorates, and yeah I talk about it pretty much constantly.

I wrote a paper about this problem for the 2023 APSA conference.

Labor is pretty much the Condorcet winner in all these 3 way contests. Same as Macnamara, Brisbane and to a lesser extent the old Higgins.

What about having increased but smaller electorates? There are more but smaller state seats in QLD. The 2CP in South Brisbane is Labor vs Greens whereas in Bulimba, it is Labor vs LNP, after preferences. An LNP voter won’t ‘accidentally’ vote in a Green. Expanding federal parliament is a different kettle of fish.

@Angus, you make a good point. If you’re an LNP voter and you want to see the back of MCM, you’d hope that Labor doesn’t get pushed to third spot in the 3CP like in Brisbane in 2022.

The greens have their uses. Because it forces labor to out green the greens therefore pushing some seats towards the liberals. The alp would be smart to follow Dutton who instead of trying g to out teal the teals is targeting outer suburban labor voters who have been left behind by labor as they try to secure wealthier elite inner city votes

Expanding the parliament wouldn’t solve the problem of three-cornered contests producing weird results. It might mean it doesn’t happen here, but it would happen in different places instead. The problem is that the vote is fragmented in such a way that means that there are few seats where the winner has a majority of the vote, or even close to a majority, so preferences become more important and sometimes produces weird situations. A proportional system would mean more MPs would win based on the primary vote and be less dependent on preferences.

Chandler-Mather on ABC local this morning reckons the LNP finally have a candidate here. Reckons someone named Anthony Bishop, but can’t find the news anywhere else yet.

Nominations close April 10 so they’ll need to have it sorted before then.

@Darth Vader whenever Labor has tried to follow the LNP and lean to the right for “outer suburban” votes, they’ve failed miserably. Just have a look at the NT election. Labor tried to be tough on crime, and supported gas projects, to try and win over outer-suburban voters. This failed miserably, and they bled votes on the left and right. The fact is that you can’t “out-Liberal” the Liberals. If people want centre-right politics, they’ll vote LNP. So I think it’s better for Labor to go down a progressive route, to differentiate itself from the L/NP.

Progressive policies also appeal to outer suburban voters, because they help with the cost of living – just look at QLD Labor. 50c fares might’ve been seen as trying to “out green the greens”. Sure they helped Labor a lot in the inner-city, but Labor also held up well in middle and outer suburbs where they were expected to lose badly. 50c fares really helped folk in the outer suburbs, who had to commute via public transport to work.

Similarly, Federal Labor’s announcement on medicare (making most GP visits bulk billed) is quite progressive, and might be seen as chasing Greens votes. But people in the outer suburbs will benefit too. Meanwhile, what’s Dutton offering?

Agree AA, that would also be somewhat true on the conservative side. Malcolm Turnbull being a moderate and a somewhat small ‘l’ Liberal didn’t really have much success in the swing type outer suburban districts, merely consolidating support in the affluent inner suburban areas. In contrast, Morrison embraced more of a ‘battler’ image which helped win back some of the outer suburban, swing type seats like Lindsay and Longman.

@AA as Labor have demonstrated in WA, SA and to an extent NSW when labor governs from the right of the Labor they are hard to beat. SA labor will win in 2026 because of this. WA is a different story pretty hard to ask for a 4th term. especially if a federal labor minortiy ovt comes in and brings in laws that start to harm WAs economic prosperity. such as Nature First laws, cancelling gas projecs as the greens and teals want to, god forbid they bring in another carbon and minig tax. Nsw i think might be a one term government as despite winning 55-45 on the 2pp couldnt even manage majority govt. and with the polls having tightened since the lection i cant see them holding most of the marginals/ regional seats

The difference with WA and SA is that their Liberal oppositions are utterly incompetent. So Labor isn’t really following the LNP to the right, because the LNP aren’t a threat and are more focused on fighting themselves. I’m saying that it never works when Labor tries to follow the LNP to the right, usually because they’re under threat from the LNP.

agreed on SA but WA it was just a case of Labor having everything going for them and nearly driving the libs out of the parliament. i think 2029 will be a contest. so far i can the libs falling just short but that will also depend on the redistribution

I don’t think that is correct AA. The sweet spot has always been somewhat social democratic on economic policy, somewhat liberal on personal freedoms, somewhat conservative on crime, borders, nationhood. Labor Right, particularly the NSW Labor Right, is probably as close to this ideal as any other grouping in Australia.

The problem is that progressive policies are generally not that popular outside of economics, and even then if they stuff them up the backlash to the failure is worse than the positives from the success. The 50c PT fares policy is agood example, would only affect a relatively small number of outer suburban commuters (the big win I suspect was families coming in to town for the football) but will reduce fare income for the system and eventually see it with a reduced service in a rundown state.

Oh, and on Medicare Dutton copied the Labor plan within 30 minutes.

Also, you can’t implement progressive policies then when they fail go running back to the centre ground and hoping you get plaudits for it.

@Mostly Labor Voter I get what you mean, and I agree that there is a sweet spot. NSW and SA Labor Right are particularly close to this.

I was responding to @Darth Vader, who said that instead of ‘out greening the greens’, Labor “would be smart to follow Dutton”.

I’m trying to argue that Labor hurts itself when it tries to follow the LNP, dragging it to the right. This occurs the Labor party is on the nose and the LNP is fairly popular. So the Labor party heads to the right in response. If the Labor party is under pressure from the LNP, I believe does best when it differentiates itself, often through progressive economic policy. The Labor party in NSW, SA and WA did not continually shift to the right because the Labor party was unpopular and vice versa. They have a more centrist view because of party leadership and MPs.

I agree with the notion that progressive policies are best when they’re economic. But I suspect you don’t understand SEQ much. The 50c fares policy is extremely popular with outer suburban voters, even those who don’t use public transport, as they usually know people (often children or elderly relatives) who do. With Brisbane’s urban sprawl, there’s a lot of people who commute by train into the city, both white and blue collar. The 50c fares policy was so popular, as cost of living relief, that the LNP have kept it, and now take credit for it.

https://online.lnp.org.au/anthonybishop

Hi, I’m Anthony Bishop, your LNP candidate for Griffith.

I grew up in Brisbane and studied Medical Laboratory Science at QUT. Over the years, I’ve also lived in Melbourne, Singapore, and Malaysia, building a career in pharmaceutical R&D. I’ve had the privilege of leading global development programs that bring life-saving Australian innovations to the world.

I’ve called Murarrie home for the past 12 years. I’m married to Jane, and we have two adult children. Music has always been a big part of my life, and I’m proud to be an accomplished musician.

Hi Anthony good to see some candidates on here. Good luck at the election. Il be rooting for you from Liverpool (UK) as im over seas this election

The LNP finally have a candidate for Griffith. Some bloke called Anthony Bishop.
https://www.facebook.com/AnthonyBishopLNP

Pre-polled at an EVC that covers Griffith, Moreton and Bonner. Lots of Green shirts but this is the heart of Griffith.

All very civilised. A lone Gerard Rennick volunteer was around for whatever good that ends up doing for Senator Rennick.

Labor and LNP no-shows at the candidate forum in West End last night, only parties represented were the Greens and the guy from the Gerard Rennick party. MCM got big cheers for his answers on housing – don’t know how much to read into it though because it seemed like quite an unrepresentative sample of Griffith.

green retain

@inari28 how was Rennick’s person received?

At Oakleigh in the Seat of Hotham there was one, that was being well received enough, simply soaking up minor right vote.

I would’ve like to have seen a debate between MCM and the Gerard Rennick candidate since they are at opposite ends of the political spectrum. West End isn’t particularly friendly to minor right wing parties but good on him for showing up.

Clarinet of Communists: He did his best. He had trouble with the unseen questions and at one point said “look, I’m under no illusion I’ll be elected” and made an impressed remark about the number of Greens volunteers he had seen at pre-poll earlier in the day (to which MCM added “I didn’t ask him to say this!”). The crowd was gracious and clapped politely, but he didn’t get the reception MCM did – mostly, they just seemed glad that someone else besides the Greens was in attendance.

Fair enough, unusual humility if nothing else, much more than Clive’s “next prime minister” lmao. I’m not surprised that a Griffith audience wasn’t super receptive to him though.

I’m thinking this will be a Labor gain now. I see Chandler-Mather’s primary going up but Labor easily getting over the LNP and winning on prefs. I can see CM retaining if his primary skyrockets (Unlikely) or Right Wing Micro prefs going to the LNP strongly enough to keep them ahead of Labor (somewhat more likely)

How much of the primary vote would MCM need to retain this in a GRN/ALP contest? Upwards of 40% I assume?

I have a feeling that the LNP will drop quite dramatically here even in the eastern side of the electorate. Labor will probably stay status quo or go up slightly, and MCM will increase his primary vote somewhat. I sense this contest will turn into a marginal ALP-Greens contest.

If MCM is over 40-42% it will be a comfortable win. If he falls below 40% Labor will have a good chance of reclaiming it on LNP and cookers’ preferences. But it won’t be a comfortable margin for whoever wins. Likely no more than 5% if this situation eventuated.

I’m dunno if the cooker preferences will necessarily favour Labor over the Greens. The big anti-Green ad spend suggests they will, but cookers aren’t exactly the type to back the incumbent Government either.

How is Labor improving on 28% PV in this economic climate? Greens have gradually built up here at Labor’s expense since 2010, with some good candidates.
Even with a generic candidate, LNP should still top the ballot now that the 2022 Issues are history. No constituency for a Teal circuitbreaker here, Greens have that covered, so it’e either Greens returned or a shock LNP win.

It is an interesting scenario that it be MCM vs Labor in the last two – but now actually quite plausible. After all the Libs didn’t even have a candidate until a few weeks back. The Libs do have to do really badly to be third after ON and Trumpet preferences.

According to The Australian, LNP intended to run a campaign based on [alleged] greens antisemitism, but the candidate had [dual] citizenship issues which couldn’t be resolved.
Might have been an interesting match, MC-M having to defend Bandt and his Melbourne Greenery to sceptical Brisbaneites?

It’s possible that the Greens and Labor increase their primary votes. The bigger range of right-wing parties and the lateness of the LNP preselection might mean a lower LNP primary vote.

I read that in general, voters for minor right-wing parties aren’t the most keen on following HTV cards. It’s partly because they can’t get 2 or 3 volunteers for every polling booth and the HTV cards don’t reach the hands of their voters.

MCM has been very active local member – paying for a lot of primary school breakfast programs out of his own pocket – he doesn’t;t have to defend Bandt – Brisbane Greens are what people on the ground will vote on.
Another thing to note is the sophomore surge – see Ben Raue at the Tallyroom

On that last statement, I’ve surprisingly seen consistent numbers of Gerard Rennick volunteers on pre-poll in Brisbane and Ryan. They usually have 2-3 volunteers at a time on each booth, Rennick himself even showed up for one afternoon at The Gap.

I think this electorate will either be an MCM retain or a Labor gain. I can see both happening – there’s a decent chance that a small swing away from The Greens, or LNP voters tactically voting Labor (as the libs have run dead here) will push Labor into the 2cp count, and Renee Coffey will win on LNP preferences.

@Joeldipops I believe One Nation and UAP preferences favoured The Greens over Labor in Brisbane 2022, pushing them into the 2PP.

@Doug I felt that Amy MacMahon was a fairly active local member, although she didn’t get a sophomore surge. I’ll be interested to see how MCM’s vote holds up.

Also, forgot to mention, the Rennick volunteers in Brisbane and (especially) Ryan mostly got older Lib voters taking their HTVs. I assume a fair few of them will vote LNP in the house of reps, and Rennick in the senate.

I was quite surprised by the LNP’s 7% swing in South Brisbane. Even despite the gentrification and the overall progressive nature of the seat I didn’t expect the LNP’s primary to improve that much. Their candidate was announced quite late and wasn’t too active based on social media. Was there a sort of factor that helped them? (only one I could think of was just overall LNP mood)

I honestly don’t know why there was such a high swing to the LNP in South Brisbane. I’m putting it down to gentrification (although gentrification in Brisbane usually takes votes from Labor and splits it between the LNP and Greens – Moorooka and Mitchelton are two suburbs that have recently undergone that process). I also wouldn’t rule out some older Greens voters being put off by the perceived “extreme” nature that the LNP has portrayed The Greens.

AA when I stood as DLP candidate in what was then Moreton in 1972
Moorooka was one of the strong ALP booths and was in fact a bit rough for DLP volunteers minds you I know that was 50 years ago. Very working class with a lot of factories. how things have changed.

@A A:
My impression was that Greens volunteers were fairly underwhelmed by Amy MacMahon’s win in South Brisbane in 2020, since it only happened on LNP preferences and at ALP expense. Had the desired result, Trad was booted, MacMahon did nothing over the 4 years, the lesson is that while LNP can’t win the seat atm, they decide who will.

At every election and by-election since 2010, Labor primary vote in Griffith has dropped. At every election since 2016, Greens primary vote has increased and LNP primary vote has dropped. In 2025, Greens primary vote should continue to increase, especially considering Max Chandler-Mather should receive a sophomore boost.

Due to two more right-wing minor party candidates contesting Griffith compared to the 2022 election as well as gentrification, the LNP primary vote can drop even further below that of Labor, however the LNP may still reach second place during the distribution of preferences. The primary vote order on election night may be Greens > Labor > LNP, however the seat will remain in doubt because there’s still a possibility that the LNP may reach second place during the distribution of preferences because of favourable right-wing minor party preferences.

If the LNP drops to third, the preferences of the LNP and right-wing minor parties will elect Labor. This is the only way Labor can win Griffith. Current national polling shows a consolidation of Labor vote in inner urban areas and the Coalition vote bleeding to right-wing minor parties, with a potential 2PP swing towards Labor. Considering this, one cannot rule out the possibility of the LNP finishing third in Griffith, however Labor is still more likely to finish third and thus the Greens remain the favourite to retain Griffith.