GRN 10.5% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Max Chandler-Mather, since 2022.
Geography
Southern Brisbane. Griffith covers the suburbs of Brisbane on the south side of the Brisbane river across the river from the Brisbane CBD, including South Brisbane itself, as well as Greenslopes, Holland Park, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, Coorparoo, Carina, Seven Hills, Morningside, Balmoral and Bulimba.
History
Griffith was created for the 1934 election, replacing the original seat of Oxley which was abolished at that election. Both Oxley and Griffith have been marginal seats, with Griffith swinging back and forth regularly between the Liberal Party and the ALP since 1949, although this has not usually coincided with national changes. The seat had become relatively safe for the ALP since it was won by Kevin Rudd in 1998, but has since become more marginal, with Labor finally losing the seat in 2022.
The seat was first won in 1934 by Labor MP Francis Baker, who had previously won the seat of Oxley off the United Australia Party, ironically at an election when the UAP swept away the federal Labor government.
Baker was re-elected in 1937, but was killed in a car accident in 1939 at the age of 36. Ironically his father was elected to federal parliament in Maranoa in 1940, after his son’s term in Parliament.
The 1939 Griffith by-election was won by Labor candidate William Conelan. Conelan held the seat until he lost Griffith to Liberal candidate Douglas Berry in 1949.
Berry was re-elected in 1951 but lost to the ALP’s Wilfred Coutts. Coutts held on in 1955 but failed to win re-election in 1958, losing to the Liberal Party’s Arthur Chresby, and winning it back in 1961.
Coutts lost the seat once again in 1966, when the seat was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron held the seat for eleven years, moving to the new seat of Fadden in 1977. He held Fadden until his defeat in 1983, and returned to Parliament at the 1983 Moreton by-election, which he held until his retirement in 1990.
The ALP regained Griffith in 1977, with Ben Humphreys winning the seat. Humphreys served as a minister in the Hawke/Keating government from 1987 until 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
The ALP preselected Kevin Rudd, but he lost to Graeme McDougall (LIB). McDougall only held on for one term, losing to Rudd in 1998. Rudd joined the ALP shadow ministry in 2001 as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, a role he held for five years.
Rudd’s profile rose as Shadow Foreign Minister, and he was considered a contender for the ALP leadership when Simon Crean resigned in 2003 and when Mark Latham resigned in 2005, but he waited until late 2006 when he challenged Kim Beazley, and was elected leader, and then proceeded to win the 2007 federal election, becoming Prime Minister.
Kevin Rudd was removed as Labor leader and Prime Minister in June 2010, and was re-elected in Griffith as a Labor backbencher. He returned to the ministry as Foreign Minister following the election. He returned to the backbench as part of a failed challenge to Julia Gillard’s leadership in February 2012. Kevin Rudd again challenged for the Labor leadership in June 2013, and returned to the Prime Ministership.
Rudd led Labor to defeat at the 2013 election – he was re-elected in Griffith with a 3% margin, but resigned shortly after. The seat was won at an early 2014 by-election by Labor’s Terri Butler, in the face of a 1.25% swing to the Liberal National Party. Butler was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.
Butler lost to Greens candidate Max Chandler-Mather in 2022, with Butler falling into third place.
- Andrea Campbell (Family First)
- Max Chandler-Mather (Greens)
- Renee Coffey (Labor)
- Dion Hunt (People First)
Assessment
This seat is a complex race to watch, but the Greens are in a stronger position here then in their other two inner Brisbane electorates. The progressive two-candidate-majority majority is quite substantial, and the Greens have quite a large lead over Labor in the three-candidate-preferred count. Chandler-Mather has a good shot at winning a second term.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Max Chandler-Mather | Greens | 36,771 | 34.6 | +10.9 |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 32,685 | 30.7 | -10.2 |
| Terri Butler | Labor | 30,769 | 28.9 | -2.0 |
| Shari Ware | One Nation | 3,504 | 3.3 | +1.2 |
| Robert Gordon McMullan | United Australia | 2,581 | 2.4 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 2,169 | 2.0 | -0.3 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Max Chandler-Mather | Greens | 64,271 | 60.5 |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 42,039 | 39.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terri Butler | Labor | 64,923 | 61.1 | +8.2 |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 41,387 | 38.9 | -8.2 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Bulimba in the north, Greenslopes in the south, South Brisbane in the west and a series of booths along the eastern boundary.
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Griffith: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in all four areas, ranging from 58% in Bulimba to 69.7% in South Brisbane. The Greens also polled over 60% of the pre-poll vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in all four areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 44.5% in South Brisbane. Labor’s vote peaked at 30% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bulimba | 32.6 | 28.2 | 58.1 | 15,493 | 14.6 |
| South Brisbane | 44.5 | 27.2 | 69.7 | 12,008 | 11.3 |
| Greenslopes | 37.5 | 29.6 | 64.9 | 11,098 | 10.4 |
| East | 32.4 | 30.0 | 59.5 | 6,823 | 6.4 |
| Pre-poll | 35.0 | 28.4 | 60.7 | 35,773 | 33.6 |
| Other votes | 29.8 | 30.4 | 55.5 | 25,115 | 23.6 |
Election results in Griffith at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal National Party and Labor.
If I recall correctly MCM was elected off the back of some flight path issue? Anyone know if he has fixed it? If not he may be seen to be ineffective.
I’m pretty sure he was elected because Terri butler was a lame duck who was taking Griffith for granted
Adam
He advocates for a night time curfew and cap on air traffic movements. If he got his way he would financially cripple the airport – especially as they have just built a new runway – and by extension severely affect the Queensland economy. For the greater good, it is a good thing that he is ineffective. Another example of the Greens being off with the economic pixies.
Given the greens were elected on a protest vote it is highly likely all 3 will lose their seats. These areas aren’t as solidly left wing as Melbourne CBD. At least separately anyway. I’m sure if you combined the 3 of them across the Brisbane river they could manage to hold it but not separately. MCM is the one likeliest to hold his seat the other 2 will likely lose to Labor or the lnp
New YouGov poll released claiming all 3 Greens QLD seats will fall to Labor.
This was perfectly said over in the Brisbane QLD page:
“It leads to the question about the wiseness of a strategy that relies on the professional class for votes while at the same time advocating a political approach that the professional class are increasingly uncomfortable with.”
We saw it with the state QLD election, the Prahran byelection and probably this federal election, despite a few Greens supporters claiming more locally motivated reasons for why they lost. It is so obvious that this brand of “radical” is losing them votes amongst the highly educated, “feel-good” Greens voter and the Greens higher-ups are too blind to see that these voters are necessary to win.
If I was typically a Greens voter and lived in a seat like Griffith, Brisbane or Ryan, I tactically would vote 1 Labor 2 Greens this time, for the reason that in a hung parliament situation, Labor doesn’t appear to have a cosy or encouraging relationship with the Greens, and may be unwilling to acquiesce to their steep demands. Labor needs as much of a leg up as possible in order to form minority government at all, and prevent Dutton from grasping that same opportunity.
Yes, it would be interesting if this tactical scenario plays out in the voters’ minds.
@Adam he was elected partially off a NIMBY flight noise issue, involving wealthy residents in the affluent (but flight-adjacent) suburb of Bulimba complaining that the planes were too loud going over their houses. Nevermind that the airport has been there for decades. His curfew plan is economically and logistically unsound.
Kevin Rudd originally ran on the flight path curfew issue in 1998 after losing Griffith to the Liberal in 1996. By 2013 voters in the affected area were sick of Rudd and he only just fell over the line.
Same has happened for MCM, just much quicker, because he was a protest vote, he’s got no politicalo power backing him up.
I’d say, if Liberal were ever going to regain Griffith, it will happen this time.
No announced LNP candidate for Griffith yet so it probably means it’s not an LNP target seat.
Labor’s path to winning is to first overtake the LNP on primary votes and on 3CP. Preferences from Family First, ONP and Trumpet of Patriots would favour the LNP over Labor. Primary votes in 2022 were 30.7% for LNP and 28.9% for Labor. Some commenters above mentioned that Terri Butler took this seat for granted or wasn’t that personally popular. She suffered a primary vote swing when there was a statewide swing to Labor in 2022.
There are some wild cards:
1. Max Chandler-Mather’s personal vote.
2. Tactical voting for a ‘middle ground’ option similar to how @Politik described it.
3. Whether small-L liberals who dislike Dutton, will swing to Labor. An LNP voter switching to Labor to defeat the Greens may also count as tactical voting.
Votante there is simply too much centre right vote here to ensure libs will make the 2cp. Given the libs are expected to increase their vote due to being in opposition labor will need to knock out the greens and win on green preferences. The libs simply won’t get knocked out of the 2cp/2pp.
I wouldn’t discount the Libs getting knocked out of the top 2, this electorate has a lot of small-L liberals who don’t like Dutton. Renee Coffey has been visible in the electorate, I reckon some small-L lib voters could swing to Labor.
Aa there will be a swing to the libs they won’t get knocked out. 2022 was a low point.
Will the LNP run a candidate?
Obviously. Preselection for Griffith is currently ongoing. Though by the looks of things they aren’t in a hurry to so it’s not a seat they will be hoping to win
Labor has an outside chance. They’re buoyed by the win in South Brisbane at the last state election and also their need to increase seats in QLD to compensate for lost seats elsewhere. I expect more right-wing parties (ToP, PHON) to join in and this would split the right-wing vote.
If Max Chandler-Mather’s primary vote remains static or decreases, then it’ll be in play.
The South Brisbane win can be attributed to LNP preferences which won’t be getting distributed federally but yes it wouldn’t take much
If the majprs want to get rid of Max, and I suspect they do, then the easiest thing is for the LNP not to run a candidate. Then the conservative vote has nowhere to go but Labor. The LNP can’t win in Griffith, it’s either going to be Green or Labor, so why would they waste resources here?
There’s literally no reason to not run a candidate if they think they’ll get over the minimum votes – and the LNP has enough rusted-ons to ensure that. They can run dead and they’ll get at least 15%. Also important for senate voting in the seat.
To be clear, I can understand them running dead, so the only resources used are the cost of printing of htv cards, etc, and the candidate registration cost, but they’ll easily get that back anyway.
They always run a candidate in every seat at general elections. And this seat isn’t out of the realm of possibility to win so they won’t run dead
I think this is a seat which is going under the radar a bit, particularly considering the recent MRP results highlighting Brisbane/Ryan. I can easily see the Liberals getting 3rd place here and electing Labor on preferences, like what happened in South Brisbane. This is exactly the kind of electorate where I see their vote continuing to decline. Max will lead on first preferences but he needs a big lead to hold up against Labor in a 2CP.
LNP and not Liberals, of course.
@Adda
South Brisbane is the Greens strongest territory in Griffith. If they can’t win there, it’s all over, because Coorparoo, Camp Hill, Greenslopes, Hawthorne, Holland Park won’t have Greens in the top 2 at any booth, and that’s where the voters are.
LNP hasn’t got a candidate at this stage, how long before Max starts attacking Labor?
How hard did the LNP try in 2022?
I would assume all else being equal that the LNP (and right wing minors) lpwould do better and Labor would do worse than in 2022. But if the LNP ran a normal or serious campaign before and are running completely dead now, that’s a real change. It’s also possible that Terri Butler had a negative candidate effect.
It may genuinely be worth it for Greens supporters to tactically vote Liberal – just Green members and volunteers doing so would have saved Amy McMahon.
@adda i cant because i think 2022 was their low point and they still made the cut on ONP and UAP preferences and will do so again. i think LNP will finish first on preferences with MCM second and labor a close 3rd.
@blue based on th 2cp had they done so labor would still have won although against an lnp candidate instead of amy.
the 3cp was 11269 Liberal 11374 Labor 12346 Green.
if the libs came that close to making the 2cp/2pp in the most left leaning part of brisbane at state level theres no way they will drop out of the 2pp/2cp at a federal level.
given ONP (assuming they contest it) and FF and PF and possibly ToP being right of centre i cant see the libs missing out. although leakage may create a LNP v LAB contets in which lab would win on grn preferences. im gonna say this will be like Macnamara in which a few hundred votes decides who makes the 2pp and who wins
I see no reason to believe that 2022 is a low point for the LNP here. Inner and middle suburbs in recent elections in recent elections in Australian capital cities, with high education and SES, have trended left – there’s no evidence of that changing. The LNP haven’t even selected a candidate at this time and that’s probably a good indication that they intend to run dead. I think it’s very likely they perform worse than 2022 and then it’s up to Labor to retain Terri Butler’s numbers.
@adda they usually leave seats they dont consider winnable until last minute just because they dont see it as winnable doesnt mean they intend to just hand it over to labor.
@Adda
Terri Butler’s numbers were abysmal, given that she should have picked up at least a few percent of the 10% PV the LNP lost in 2022.
LNP may be trying to get a candidate over the line, Olivia Roberts was a reasonable candidate for this type of seat, 2022 was just a bad year to be running in the Metro seats for the LNP.