Griffith – Australia 2025

it is just interesting to see if the Greens made the 2CP on state figures

@Nimalan I would estimate that Labor got about 37%, the LNP got 35% and the Greens got 25% or something like that.

That’s on primaries by the way so the other 3% is One Nation.

Also now I’ve done all the Brisbane seats I can start on the three Gold Coast seats and Herbert then later the regional seats.

My opiion, the Abortion issue hurt the Greens vote too at the state Election, so the State figures in Griffith don’t mean a lot.
Unless Labor can weaponise Abortion at the Federal Poll, which might be it’s only chance of a win.
Then i’d say they’re regaining Griffith and Brisbane and holding Moreton and Lilley..

@ NP
So the Greens will be knocked out of the 2CP hypothetically if the numbers were repeated.

greens should remain in the 2cp here

@Nimalan yes, but I don’t see it happening to be honest.

The only seat in Griffith that the Greens didn’t finish third in was South Brisbane where they finished first and lost on LNP preferences. What should scare the Greens though is that while MCM’s high profile should mean he’s fine, South Brisbane is meant to be the best place for the Greens in all of Queensland.

@ NP
I dont see the Greens getting knocked out the 2CP in Griffith either. It is probably my advice to them not to get too cocky and try to win Moreton and watch their back in a seat like Brisbane. The big mistake that the Greens made at the QLD state election they targeted too many seats in fact they had a 10 seat strategy they failed to watch their back in South Brisbane with a reverse of preference flows.

the LNP is high enoguh for them to finish in the top 2 here and i dont see labor knocking out the greens. i think however the LNP will finish first

Moreton voted Yes to The Voice, so it should be winnable for The Greens.
To my previous comment, The Greens aren’t crystal clear on Reproductive Rights.
I think that’s what hurt them at the State poll, potential LNP voters in the City of Brisbane stayed with Labor ad The Greens lost their protest voters to Labor.
Whoever ran the Labor campaign is a genius, saved them 15 seats, 5 of which would’ve gone Green, imo.

@Gympie no Moreton narrowly voted No. The only Queensland seats that voted Yes were the three Greens seats and even then Ryan was close.

I’ve downgraded my seat forecast for the Greens and upgraded it for Labor. The Greens vote may be at its peak. The Labor candidate must feel energised following the party’s win in South Brisbane at the state election.

The Greens margin seems overinflated. There were huge double-digit primary vote swings to the Greens last election in the east (e.g. Bulimba, Morningside) and in the south (e.g. Holland Park). These areas are quite suburban and normally Labor/LNP voting.

A possible scenario is that the LNP falls to third place as the candidate runs dead and because LNP voters vote tactically for Labor. In this case, LNP to Labor preferences, coupled with a decline in Greens votes, will make Labor win. I’m not sure if Albanese is popular in inner-city areas but I don’t expect him to campaign here as he’d leave up to locals and maybe Steven Miles.

@Votante meanwhile Adrian Schrinner could campaign in Ryan and perhaps even Brisbane.

@hi Tanya a LNP is not entirely off the cards here. Given labor’s poor standing in qld if the LNP finishes first with at least 40% greens second then LNP could theoretically win off labor and minor party preferences

Votante* dry autpcorrect

it makes no sense for the LNP to run dead here or for people to tactically vote labor. the lanp can totally win this seat. if they were to poll at least 40% of the vote and greens and labor to be under 50% combined with greens second. given the rest of the vote is likely to be uap and onp they could strip enough votes from labor to win the seat

This is not a seat the LNP can get close to 40% in any longer. It’s the Melbourne Ports/Macnamara of Queensland. In other words, territory they have lost any prospects in over the last decade. The demographics have become far too unfavourable.

I would say that Labor’s prospects are quite good just viewing how the LNP vote has declined every single election since 2013. Even if the LNP do well in Queensland/nationwide this is a trend that is likely to continue. All Labor requires is to beat the LNP on 3CP since preferences would ensure Labor win if that happens. Even if the LNP vote stays level or has a small bump there can be a larger swap between Greens and Labor votes if Labor mounts an effective campaign.

If the LNP think they are better served having a Labor MP rather than a Greens MP they would certainly be better off running dead here (I think this is highly debatable at best however, the counterargument is that MCM’s presence hurts Labor and thus benefits the federal Coalition).

At this moment, though I still think it’s more likely a Greens hold than not, because without evidence to the contrary I would think MCM’s vote doesn’t fall. But I don’t think there are many “rusted on” Greens voters and we’ve seen many recent elections where they switch to a different party on the left (including Labor).

@Adda
LNP got 44% in Griffith in 2014, against 10 other candidates it wasn’t enough.
https://results.aec.gov.au/17552/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17552-163.htm
Labor’s vote has collapsed in Griffith, previously it depended on Green preferences, now it depends on the LNP running 3rd to win.
Not a long term strategy imo, Dutton’s coattails should be long enough to drag a good candidate over the line in Griffith, Moreton and Lilley too.

@adda i wouldnt say that because the 2022 was a lowtide election for the LNP. they have consistenyl polled 40% on the primary or close to it for nearly 30 years except in elections where there was a change of government as in 2007. and te vote then recovered over the next 4 elections where they consistently came close. so i would not doubt the vote recovering again. despite their antics having greens mps in the lower house hurts labor in the same way having teals/independents hurts the coalition. the fact that labor prefences leak greater to the coalition then greens to the coalition means labor finishing thrid gives the coalition a glimmer of hope they can win the seat if they could poll 40% and finish first greens finishing second could mean the coalition can win here especially given unlike macnamara there is a strong enough combined uap/onp vote to help them over the line

@Adda
This is not a seat the LNP can get close to 40% in any longer.
It did so in 2019 witrh an everage candidate.
My opinion, 2022 was a outlier, the issues that caused a 10% drop in LNP PVs are history now and Chandler Mather has no achievements as the Member.
The reality is 64% didn’t want him in 2022 and if voting or preferencing LNP is what is nevessary to see the back of him, that’s what will happen.

Even in a strong election for the federal Coalition they won’t rebound to 40% here. The shifting voting demographics to this electorate are, just like every other inner urban capital city, trending to the left. This isn’t about to reverse. To simply look at past results underestimates how quickly the ground has shifted.

The LNP’s gains in blue-collar electorates are balanced out by losing out in more cosmopolitan and educated areas. This is what makes a seat like Hunter one of their prime targets this election when it was formerly out of reach, and what makes this seat out of reach when it used to be a target.

This seat had QLD’s largest election-day booth at West End State School, with 3026 votes cast.

This seat will probably be retained by Max Hypen .. hope I am wrong

The shifts in primary vote in South Brisbane at the state level (towards an unpopular labor government) does absolutely give me pause before saying this seat is a cut and dry GRN retain. Thing is that Miles had more personal appeal to young men it seems, doubt Albo has that.

@Maxim young men lean conservative so that wouldn’t benefit the Greens. The reason the Greens will hold on is from MCM’s profile, Labor to Greens preferences (since the LNP will be second) and protest voting.

cant see anything but a green hold here.

I don’t know if I’d say young men lean conservative, especially in Australia and especially in inner metropolitan areas. More conservative than young women maybe, but would still lean progressive.

The latest Resolve had 56% ALP+GRN compared to 27% LIB among the 18-34 age group overall. While there’s no gender breakdown, it’s extremely unlikely that the ALP+GRN result among males would be below 50%, let alone lower than the LIB result.

The USA did see a sharp movement to the right among young males but they have a far less urban population and a very different culture to Australia.

Agree John, any reduction in Labor’s vote will only strengthen the Greens’ position even if it’s an ALP to LIB swing and the Greens vote declines as well.

@trent though i wouldnt doubt the libs being competitive in 2028 if there is a labor-greens-etc minority govt after the 2025 election. that will be labors bet hope of regaining griffith as a lnp win would make it easire for them to win it back at the following election

Young men tend to be much less progressive than young women. There is a different type of liberal conservatism among young people though and it’s more moderate.

The LNP to the best of my knowledge have yet to choose a candidate in Griffith. Leaving it a bit late.

Probably because they know they’ll never be able to win this seat in this cycle. It’s just far too left-leaning (probably the most left-leaning seat in QLD).

The left vote is just too big to overcome. I think MCM will solidify his vote

Green hold, Liberals aren’t putting any effort here and Labor will be busy sandbagging other seats. MCM is a high profile member and appears to be popular also without Terri Butler running here will make it even harder for Labor to have any chance of regaining here.

If Labor gets back in the top 2 here they win. I would not rule it out.

@adam they can’t like Ryan and Brisbane the lnp is strong enough to make the 2cp. This isn’t like wills or cooper, Sydney grayndler and Melbourne. Isn’t even like Macnamara.

I wouldn’t rule it out, if the Liberals run dead there could be some ****tactical voting**** (sorry High Street!) where Liberal voters look to try and eject MCM. Probably not so likely when Albo is a bit on the nose though

The lnp won’t tactical vote. It’s not unplausible they could win the seat if all the right factors were in play

There was a +11% primary vote swing to the Greens last time. Most of it came from the Liberals. I don’t think many past Liberal voters would like the way MCM has been carrying on so I suspect there will be a 5% primary vote swing away from the Greens. If say 3% went to the LNP and 2% to Labor, combined with some other movement, the seat could be essentially a 3 way tie like Macnamara and Labor could end up in the Top 2.

@adam 2 things a +3% lnp primary would automatically qualify the libs for top 2 as once you have 33.3% you can’t be pushed out of the the top 2. Also your forgetting the centre right votes of uap and one which go mostly to the lnp. While uap is no longer registered you can imagine the lnp will secure that. If the greens lose 5% of their primary MCM will lose. I don’t think it necessarily went from Lib->Grn and imagine there was a bit of Lib-lab and then lab-grn vote going on as there was a bit of a protest vote against Terri butler due to labor taking this seat for granted. It wouldn’t take much for the greens to lose here now that I look at the raw numbers. A 5% swing would likely be enough as there isn’t enough minor party vote for them to recover and that vote is purely right of centre. Might be some good money on the labor candidate here. Labor can win this seat in that circumstance.

Adam – good call on pointing out that most of the fall in the Liberal vote went straight to the Greens. The same thing happened in Ryan and to a lesser extent in Brisbane. It is possible that a lot of these Liberal voters thought they were getting someone similar to a Teal and of course they have not and they might have some ‘buyers remorse’. With this knowledge, a sizable proportion of the Greens might go back to the Libs or some to Labor. Quite conceivable that the Greens could end up third though in both Griffith and Ryan unlikely. My view is that MCM will hold but with a reduced majority. A Liberal win in Ryan and a Labor win in Brisbane are definitely possible.

I don’t know if the age distribution has changed much over the years but Griffith has a lot of Gen Z and millennial voters and very few of the LNP’s core 60+ range. Not so sure this is a simple case of traditional LNP voters parking their vote elsewhere in a bad cycle

Redistributed they could finish 3rd in Brisbane and Griffith but there vote in Ryan is too far ahead of labor. It’s conceivable with col and other factors including Dutton being from qld and the anti govt vote the libs will take vote from labor as well. Libs could win both Ryan and Brisbane but not griiffith at this stage. If labor could win Griffith from the greens and remain in govt the libs could conceivably win it in 2028

These inner city Brisbane seats won’t vote for Dutton because he’s a Queenslander. They’re full of small-L libs who don’t like Dutton, and would prefer someone like Turnbull. Dutton is probably more of a turn off for potential lib voters in Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane.

Dutton’s home state advantage will help him in outer suburban and rural white battler seats in QLD. Think Flynn, Longman, Wide Bay, Hinkler, Petrie, Forde, Wright and Capricornia.

There is no way the Libs would win Griffith in 2028, the combined progressive vote is too high. Griffith contains Greens heartland in West End, and strong (pre fed 2022) Labor areas in Bulimba and Greenslopes. The Liberals won’t bother campaigning in a seat like this, they’d be more likely to try for Lilley or Blair.

@aa the libs can absolutely win seats like Ryan and Brisbane and I think Blair will be up for grabs. Col is gonna hurt labor in Lilley and rankin but not enough to topple them. Rankin is particularly interesting. Moreton will be interesting too given the lack of incumbency. And yes they can’t win Griffith at least not this time. The redistribution in qld will further complicate labor’s qld problem

Greens hold, LNP second. The LNP need a Schrinner or Turnbull-style leader to win this.

@John I never said the libs can’t win Ryan or Brisbane, I just said that Dutton being Liberal leader isn’t an advantage for them in those seats. Ryan is definitely winnable, and they’re throwing the kitchen sink into advertising their candidate ($200,000) so far. Brisbane is less winnable due to the combined progressive vote, there’s a chance they could win it but I don’t think it’s likely. They haven’t been out campaigning much in Brisbane.

Blair is winnable for the LNP, I think Shayne will just be able to hold on, but it could go either way. One Nation parachuted their candidate in from Warwick last time (I have no idea why, as they poll well in Blair) and their vote dropped, if they have a better campaign with their new candidate (I believe he moved from NSW to Ipswich less than 4 years ago) and boost their vote, their preferences could help the LNP over the line here.

If they are able to go up against the grn candidate they are more likely to win then against labor.