Griffith – Australia 2025

@drake qld may gain another seat at the next election which would cause the seats to shrink and push the seats in se further over quota and bonner would expand south or east or se and not west this would cause griffith to lose its western parts. if griffith were to move west into annerley it would probably sure up the left vote in griffith but make moreton vunerable and flip it. i think blair and moreton will fall to the lnp in 2028 if they dont in 2025. but yea griffith will depend on redistribution. rankin oxley and lilley are the more safer seats in my opinion

Moreton won’t fall to the LNP. Greens preferences and the strength of the ALP vote in Acacia Ridge will keep pushing it to Labor. I’m surprised Graham Perrett hasn’t resigned yet – when he does, the ALP would be smart to field a candidate of Chinese origin, to cement votes in Sunnybank and Runcorn.

LNP lost a lot of skin in 2022.
Part bof that could be due to preferencing the Greens over Jackie Trad at the 2020 State Election.
My observation is Labor ran dead in Griffith in 2022, they just weren’t prepared for the spend to get Butler over the line.
She barely won in 2016 in a big Labor swing, and that was after a huge ad soend in the final week.
So, just a weak candidate.

@ AA in 2019 it was only 2% margin. perrett is more then likely going to be forced out at the next election thanks to gender quotas in the alp requiring them to field 50% in held seats. given they have 8 seats total including senate and only 2 women. 2 men in the lower house are gonna get forced out given the fact that chalmers is treasurer and dick the speaker the only option is perrett and neumann and while albo have intervened to keep neumann in blair due to the risk of losing the seat the same hasnt been said for perrett in moreton and given the fact labor are probably gonna spanked for breakfast at the qd state election i wouldnt rule out the lnp tking moreton on the back of that and the honeymoon for the coaltion

What’s interesting is that Labor has gotten a candidate one year out from an election in a seat that they came third in.

@Gympie, I don’t think Labor ran dead but rather they underestimated the Greens and they thought the nationwide momentum would carry Terri Butler. I was also blindsided by the Greens win but in hindsight, it is not a surprise as MCM and team had a massive door knocking campaign and aircraft noise was a big election issue that made loyal LNP voters vote Green.

@votante labor have inside knowledge on when the election is gonna be this just adds to speculation labor will go early. the other reason is they were disaffected with the lnp as was the trend nationwide but didnt want labor either.

the colation usualy finish 1st in griifth but losedue to combined alp and greens vote

@John, I doubt voters want either LNP nor ALP. From 2013 to 2019, the left wing vote was quite split. It was only in 2022 when the Greens leapfrogged Labor, and the LNP too, did the Greens win the seat with the help of Labor preferences. I agree that dissatisfaction with the LNP helped the Greens.

I don’t buy the early election rumours. I still think it’ll be in May 2025. I do think Labor is playing the offensive rather than defensive in QLD. Bonner would probably be more winnable.

@votante i do too but if they get a post budget poll boost they will go because it will only wear off. the redistribution will be another factor consider

@Wilson Except for the last five years The Greens under Sri have been talking up the local connections between West End and the CBD because they want as many pedestrian bridges as possible. If you look at the two free Bus Glider routes – West End to Teneriffe and Stones Corner to Ashgrove – they basically form a nice transport argument for crossing the Brisbane River. I’m not even counting the ferry routes, which also provide a transport option almost exclusively for the inner city.

The planning changes coming through are going to have to reset a lot of the Greater Brisbane electorates because it’s going to put major stress on the “community of interest” arguments. You can’t turn four house blocks into a 274 metre tower without having significant impacts on electorate boundaries.

Depending on where the shifts occur, I can see The Greens with a permanent Brisbane electorate and the LNP and ALP sitting with permanent marginal seats in Ryan and Griffith.

While it would be unusual for an electorate in the Brisbane CBD to cross the river, it isn’t a deal-breaker especially if it relieves pressure on adjoining electorates. In my opinion having Petrie cross from Moreton to a tiny sliver of Brisbane along the Ted Smout Bridge is much more dramatic than the 250 metre gap of the Brisbane River.

@Votante Terri Butler was much more interested in what ministry she’d get than working her electorate. You can’t do the bare minimum and expect to get back in.

haven’t really heard any justification for it that doesn’t boil down to packing and cracking greens seats

The Australian is now reporting that Renee Coffey’s path to the Labor nomination is now harder, as the Left faction will put forward either Katie Havelberg, head of the Professionals Australia union, or this year’s Lord Mayor candidate Tracey Price, to contest the nomination.

My feeling is that MCM will retain this handily. The LNP don’t have much incentive to run hard here given the 2CP margin, and Labor will suffer with the loss of Terri Butler’s personal vote and general movement of left-wing Labor voters to MCM. MCM may suffer a small cut in his margin if the LNP experience somewhat of a recovery in their vote, though it’s also possible he may increase his 2CP margin given that sometimes LNP voters are more happy to vote Green once there’s a Green incumbent – not sure at this stage. I think Ryan is the next hardest seat for the Greens to retain, and Brisbane the most difficult.

@Greens Political Party Supporter I’d agree with this assessment. Griffith will be Greens for the foreseeable future with Max Chandler-Mather who, to his credit, has done a great job at snatching an electorate Labor (and Terri Butler) thought they could keep by riding the anti-Morrison wave. Ryan, due to its demos is also Greens vs LNP (talk about extremes).

Brisbane is more lineball given it was minor party preferences that put Bates above Labor (if it went the other way, Madonna Jarratt would’ve won easily), and some parts of Brisbane is still fairly centre politically rather than inner-city left. It was held by Labor for many years before 2010 so it’s still salvageable IMO (but they’ll need to work hard, VERY HARD). They’ll need a very high profile candidate to have a shot at dislodging Stephen Bates (who’s comparatively unremarkable to be honest), maybe Grace Grace if she resigns after losing this year’s general election? Maybe Kate Jones?

Labor was more easily able to win Brisbane before the 2010 election because the boundaries were more favourable to them back then. Prior to 2010, Brisbane panhandled west along the Ferny Grove line, whereas now it panhandles east.

Labor didn’t do so bad here they didn’t lose votes as they just failed to get them off lnp and they went to the greens. I’d expect to see the Labor vote dissipate further now their in government. Normally a relatively marginal seat normally except in years when coalition are on the way put. I’d expect the lnp to pull it back a bit but easy green rettain

I would not say Labor did so bad here however @ John assessment that ” they didn’t lose votes as they just failed to get them off lnp and they went to the greens” is a 100% correct. In both 2019 and 2022, Labor only lost 2% of the vote each time. In the Boothby thread, I mentioned this may be a demographic swing rather than same voters switching from Labor to Greens in both elections. I stated in that thread “Sometimes it maybe not really because Terri Butler lost the same voters election on election but that there were different voters. For example an elderly Greek Post War Migrant who lived in West End since a time when it was working class died who was a lifelong labor voter and there was new young renter (Gen Z) moved out of the family home in the suburbs and moved to Wollongabba into a new apartment with his girlfriend and who both votes Greens. As this process is repeated over time Labor get squeezed out.” I think Kevin Rudd’s profile masked a demographic shift that was occurring and once he left the scene the time was ripe for the Greens to ride a demographic change wave.

@nimalan that’s why I wouldn’t put this out of contest in future. By my assessment the greens did not get full preference discipline from Labor but also I don’t think lnp got full disciple from uap and onp. If the lnp can win those voters back plus some more and from Labor and get preference disciple from the other conservatives could well win this in future 2028 might be there chance if they can make it marginal in 2025 and then win over disaffected voters from a likely Labor greens minority govt in 2028 they may just be able to steal the jewel in the crown in Rudd’s former seat.

Demographically Gen Z is split. I’m Gen Z (born November 1995) and I’m a Coalition voter but I grew up in a rural area so it’s different. Gen Z and even Gen Alpha regional people are conservative too.

A 16-year-old boy for example is on average more conservative than even a 25-year-old woman.

I think Gen Z conservatism tends to be more moderate on issues like climate change and LGBT, etc but economically liberal and support lower taxes, but in saying that they would still be opposed to the Voice for a few reasons (the majority of Australia voted No including myself and I have Indigenous and Māori friends who voted No too).

@ John
Griffith does have a significant Liberal vote a bit like Macnamara unlike Red/Green seats such as Cooper, Wills, Melbourne, Grayndler or Sydney which the Libs can never win. The problem for Labor in a seat like Griffith, Macnamara, Brisbane or even Higgins is that Labor vote will get hollowed out (these are Blue/Green seats) and the example i mentioned explained the process. However, i would not call Griffith a Jewel in the Crown just because it was once held by a Labor PM as it is more demographically mixed. For example i would not describe Kogarah as a jewel in Labor’s crown just because it held by a leader as it a seat winnable for the Libs longer term just like if James Merlino became Premier, Monbulk is a marginal seat so not a Jewel in the crown. The issue for Labor is because Brisbane is a small city an electorate covers at least two demographic groups. Even Rankin and Oxley are more mixed than a seat like Watson, Calwell, Scullin or Blaxland.

Never is such a overrated word all it takes are the right set of circumstances. Obviously seats like Sydney and grayndler but the came dangerously close in macnamara and for the last 25 years it’s only really been safe when the coalition are in govt they almost got there in 13 16 and 19 22 it swung against them but I imagine it will swing back especially if they wreck the joint in minority

@ John
I said the Libs can never will Cooper, Wills, Melbourne, Grayndler or Sydney i did not say Libs will never win Macnamara or Griffith. I was referring to the Red/Greens seats Do you think Libs can win Wills? Just like i will say Labor win never win Barker, Gippsland, Mallee or Nicholls.

This should be the easiest Green retain in Brisbane by a long way. In 2022 Labor came third with a 29% primary, I expect the primary to be 25% or less in 2025.

@greens it may be their only retain. If the libs are smart they will run a “don’t risk a labor-greens-teal-independent government “and play on what happened last time. Ryan and Brisbane are totally retakeable. Griffith will be a greens retain with reduced margin in my opinion. Labor are about to get thumped in qld at both state and federal level. Labor could possibly become a minor party in qld as libs should get Blair and the greens will throw everything St Moreton especially is perfect is forced to step aside because of affirmative action

Greens will throw everything at Griffith for 2 reasons imo.

1. MCM is on the nose here. Has done nothing for the local community and has left anything airport related to Di Farmer yet that’s what he campaigned on.

2. Renee Coffey has a huge personal vote. Teri Butler would’ve won if she committed to sorting the airport noise (for the Bulimba sooks i might add) and she wouldn’t. MCM lied and said he would.

BobDown, that’s a hilarious comment. Barely anyone knows who Coffey is and MCM has does plenty for the local community. Is your disdain for the people of Bulimba a common sentiment amongst your fellow Labor Party members?

@wilson You’re welcome to educate me on what local promises MCM has kept since his election? Putting on BBQs?

Coffey is CEO of Kookaburra Kids, is active on school P&Cs and her local church, is always at local events plus has the benefit of Di Farmer & Lucy Collier voter base.

Butler lost the Bulimba vote because she wouldn’t commit to aircraft noise, MCM has not addressed that and left it to Di Farmer. If the LNP are going to preference Labor over the Greens MCM is going to be in trouble given historically this has been a primary conservative vote.

If the Green vote at the state election goes backwards he will be very worried.

@bob Labor are about to get blown out of the water in qld no way mcm loses this

@bob liberal preferences won’t matter here as this a v lnp seat lnp have enough of the vote to be in the 2cp . It’s like macnamara they can’t win the seat but they have enough of the vote to make the 2cp

BobDown, Max started a community pantry for those going hungry and has been fighting for more government funding going into housing, as he said he would. Flight paths are harder to change, but I’m sure he’s been advocating for change too.

You’re out of touch with the average person if Griffith if you think they have any idea what Kookaburra Kids is, let alone who Coffey h
is. Your fellow Labor diehards might all know her but the average Griffith resident wouldn’t have a clue.

Butler lost the last election because she’d taken large sections of the community for granted and had a huge amount of entitlement to keep the seat while spending very little effort to actually engage with the community. This entitlement was on full display with the giant public sook she made when conceding defeat to MCM. It made her look like a spoiled child.

The only way Labor are winning this seat is by taking away liberal votes and forcing them out of the 2cp to get their preferences

Going to bet you don’t even live in Griffith, Wilson. Just another MCM fanboy.

The issue with Griffith is that if there was one chance of Labor holding on or gaining the seat (if they weren’t incumbent), it would’ve been 2022 when Labor easily rode the wave back into government. The fact that they lost this seat to the Greens speaks volumes. Terri Butler was a great member I’m sure but she lost to a combination of resting on their laurels and being rapidly squeezed by the demographic changes.

I get the sense that Labor got complacent, thinking that they would keep the seat without even trying given the polls predicted they would swoop back into power (which they did), but were outmanouvered by Max Chandler-Mather’s tactical success. If Labor lost it to the LNP they might’ve been able to get it back but now that it’s in Greens’ hands, it’s all but impossible unless MCM goes on live TV and tells the host to suck it.

The demographical makeup of this electorate presents an even bigger challenge. Greens are strong at the West End/South Brisbane side as well as Woollongabba (a bit like South Yarra), whilst LNP has Bulimba/Morningside like parts of the Georges River in Banks. Literally nowhere are Labor friendly demos. Labor would be better off working to sandbag Moreton and try to get Bonner off the LNP in the next two cycles, and maybe Brisbane given Bates is quite underwhelming in comparison to MCM who’s been out there loud and proud.

Kevin Rudd must be spewing at his old seat turning Green for the first time (And for the foreseeable future).

Rudd had a big swing against him in 2010 and almost lost the Seat in 2013.
Labor’s problems in Griffith go back to Rudd, people there got sick of him.
ETU spent a pile of dosh on TV ads for Butler in 2016 that got her just home
Fiona Ward was only 1945 short on 2CP.
Butler didn’t have that spend in 2022.
Looking at the 2016 results:
https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-163.htm
Labor’s best bet, if they’re serious about taking Griffith back, might be to preference against MC-M and let the LNP hold it for a Term.

@Tommo9 I agree, I think this seat will be difficult for Labor to regain. The seat has very green-friendly areas of West End, South Brisbane and Coorparoo, plus liberal-friendly Bulimba and Morningside. The Labor-friendly, more middle class, parts of this electorate (Mount Gravatt, Holland Park, Cannon Hill and Carina) are gentrifying as property values rise. I can’t see this becoming more Labor friendly over time.

BobDown, hope you didn’t bet much, because you’d lose it all.

the only way for labor to win this seat is to preference the lnp over the greens and allow them to hold it for a term then win it back at the next election they are not going to win against the greens.

@john i have wondered what it would take for the labor to put the greens below LNP i personally dont think it will happen until the greens get to the point of overtaking labor on seat count which if it will ever happen is a long time away.
@BobDown i live in Griffith, who tf is Renee Coffey?

they wont and for that reason they will never win the seat the only hope they have is the greens fk up even then the lnp may win it

@Nimalan this is the final Brisbane seat I need to calculate, could you please provide the list of booths?

According to The Poll Bludger contains:

* 89% of Bulimba
* 30% of Chatsworth
* 86% of Greenslopes
* 4% of Mansfield
* 13% of Miller

@ NP

Wil do give me 30 min and will do when i get back to my desk

@Nether Portal I’d say that Griffith also contains close to 100% of South Brisbane as well.

1. Balmoral
2. Bulimba
3. Buranda (joint Booth)
4. CampHill
5. Cannon Hill
6. Carina
7. Carina Heights (Joint)
8. Coorparoo
9. Dutton Park
10. East Brisbane
11. Greenslopes
12. Hill End (West end)
13. Holland Park
14. Kangaroo Point
15. Morningside
16. Mount Gravatt (external booth)
17. Murrarie (external booth)
19. Norman Park
20. Seven Hills
21. South Brisbane
22. Stones Corner (Cooporaroo)
23. West End
24. Whites Hill (Camp Hill)
25. Woolongabba

According to Pollbludger it contains 96% of South Brisbane

@Nimalan thanks. Calculation coming soon.

@Tommo9 correct.

State level TPP/TCP here:

* Labor: 57.3%
* LNP/Greens: 42.7%

Since the LNP and Greens TPP/TCP had to be combined (I’ve explained why below), this makes this one of the less reliable calculations, but here’s how it compares to the federal notional TPP (Labor vs LNP) and the actual federal TCP (Greens vs LNP), both from 2022:

* Compared to Labor’s TPP, Labor did 3.8% worse on the state level in 2024 than on the federal level in 2022
* Compared to the Greens’ TCP, Labor did 3.2% worse than the Greens did federally in 2022

Note about the TPP/TCP: Annoyingly the ECQ doesn’t conduct a notional TPP count for non-classic contests so since South Brisbane is a Labor vs Greens seat I had to include the Greens TCP as part of the LNP TPP which is kinda misleading because the LNP and the Greens are on different sides of the political spectrum. I had to do this with the federal calculation of Leichhardt too because while the AEC does calculate the notional TPP in non-classic contests it only shows it for entire electorates not just single booths and since Cook includes Biboohra which is in Kennedy which is an LNP vs KAP seat (though in that case I had to include KAP as part of Labor’s TPP). On a few occasions I’ve also had to combine the Labor and Greens TPP/TCP too for Brisbane seats but never have I had to combine the LNP and Greens TPP/TCP.

What is the total primary vote breakdown per seat

i mean just for ALP, GRN and LIB