Griffith – Australia 2025

Decent chance this will have the highest YES vote in a federal Queensland seat or possibly tied with Brisbane

@CG I think the results for the seats in the 1999 republic referendum will be pretty comparable to the voice referendum with the seats voting yes then being the ones to be the most likely to vote yes now with the obvious exceptions of the Northern Territory seats. Griffith narrowly voted no in the 1999 referendum but it was on different boundaries.

I wrote in the Brisbane 2025 thread that on paper, Labor has a better chance of flipping Brisbane than any other Greens seat. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labor puts more resources into regaining Grififth because of the stalemate over Labor’s signature housing policy and Max Chandler-Mather is the Greens spokesman, like a thorn in their side. It’s also because Grififth was a Labor loss in 2022.

The Labor vote has been weak for several elections and they haven’t won the primaries since 2010. LNP and Greens have been trending upwards.

A path to victory for Labor is when LNP falls to third and either: Labor is substantially ahead or the gap between the Greens and Labor is small. Labor can’t rely on minor party preferences. Left-wing parties like Animal Justice favour the Greens over Labor, whilst right-wing parties like ON and UAP favour LNP over Labor.

Votante your not wrong that Labor would be very keen to get rid of Chandler-Mather but I think it might be a fruitless task trying to unseat him. I don’t know of any incumbent Greens MPs who have lost their seat at an state or federal election (the exception I know of is Michael Organ who won at a by election only to loss in the general). Furthermore Chandler-Mather’s 2PP is around 10 points so any threat from the LNP is non-existent, plus a primary vote of 35% which was high then both Brisbane and Ryan, which could mean that depending on how preferences from the LNP flowed he could have won the seat even if Labor remained in second place (haven’t looked at the exact preferences though).

More materially, Griffith has a high percentage of renters, university educated voters and younger voters, all characteristics of good environment for a Greens Candidate to get up. Chandler Mather was also the QLD Greens political director and effectively masterminded the 2022 “Greenslide” in QLD and ran the campaign of Councillor Jono Sri, so I would assume he is quite well tuned to the political situation if Labor sort to pose a threat to him. I live in the Electorate and his campaign here was quite extraordinary, his face was everywhere and you couldn’t go anywhere in the electorate without seeing his face on a yard sign. It might be harder to mobilise the same level of community support again as time goes on, but he did in effect pull off a landslide, so his position seems quite secure.

As much as Labor would undoubtably love to get rid of him, I predict they will have a task on their hands to do it.

@ Dan M
Agree with your prediction and comparison to the Republic referendum. I am going to predict Maranoa will have the highest no vote and Melbourne the highest Yes vote. Agree Griffith in 1999 was much less progressive boundaries did not include West End etc. i feel on the current boundaries Griffith is more progressive than Ryan and will return a stronger Yes vote there is more densification, younger demographic especially in the years since 1999 compared to Ryan which in many places is more like Eltham/Warrandyte than Fitzroy, Carlton, Brunswick etc

I think the “teal” electorates will have the highest Yes votes at the Voice referendum.

I wonder if electorates with large uni student populations and socialist/Green voting populations will end up having a higher No vote than what you’d expect. These groups are probably more sympathetic to the Blak Sovereign and ‘Voice before Treaty’ movement led by Lidia Thorpe, the Aboriginal Tent Embassy and other activists.

@Votante TBH I reckon that teal seats will vote No. I would expect the seat of Melbourne to vote Yes, however, as I would Griffith.

As you would know, Lidia Thorpe is very fringe socialist so IDK what the TikTok woke Green anti-patriotic lefties think about her. Honestly she is the worst politician in any Australian Parliament and that says something given that the Senate alone has eleven Greens and three cookers (One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts and the UAP’s Ralph Babet).

@ Votante/NP

I was leaning towards the Green/Socialist seats which have a lot of uni students and economically left-wing, while i am not sure if the Teal seats will vote No my personal view is that it will be lower than the former category. The Teal seats still contain a a lot of people who i would describe as “traditionalist” those who will may not be socially conservative are still quite Anglophile many still like the flag, Australia day, some may describe themselves as Christian in a cultural rather than religious sense, more nuclear families, a lot went to Private Schools that have a very British ethos and so may be skeptical of constitutional change unless it is minimal. There will also be a significant difference is support for AUKUS between Kew, Canterbury, Mosman versus West End, Fitzroy, Newtown.

Brisbane and Griffith have young-ish populations and high Greens votes.
Support correlates with age and Greens voters are more likely than Labor voters to vote Yes.

On the eastern seaboard, I would say Wentworth, Sydney and Grayndler will rank highly too partly because of Albo and Turnbull and their support. Canberra and Melbourne also will rank highly.

I was thinking of Brisbane, Canberra and Wentworth when I thought of “teal” (with inverted commas) – they’re quite affluent and socially progressive and believe in action on climate change. Mackeller and North Sydney may not be as enthused by the Voice given their older demographics.

based on current polls id say all but the hard left seats will vote no as to Chandler-Mather aside from Bandt he is the most high profile green and will retain Griffith

Ben’s thread today, stated on the current boundaries, Griffith would have in fact voted for the Republic albeit narrowly and less than Ryan. However, i said earlier in the thread that i believe Brisbane/Griffith will have a stronger voice vote than Ryan. In the intervening 24 years since the Republic referendum there has been much gentrification and densification in both Brisbane and Griffith while a lot of Ryan has remained low density, home owning and Green Wedge.

https://www.tallyroom.com.au/53501/comment-page-1#comment-793952

If Libs had of finished 3rd here, and Lib preferences flowed at a rate of 34.24% (average of the six Green vs ALP seat Lib-3CP pref flow), than this seat would have been

GRN: 47.98
ALP: 52.02

If we use a more conservative 30% preference flow than it ends up as

GRN: 46.54
ALP: 53.46

So even if Libs fall to 3rd here, I’d still think the Greens would easily be able to win here with a very active incumbent vs the loss of a Labor incumbent. It seems pretty easy for them to perform at least 3.5% better than the ALP relative to last time.

@drake libs won’t fall to 3rd this is alot different to Melbourne this is probably therefore lost to Labor unlike Melbourne in which the could probably convince the libs to help them retake it.

I agree that the LNP won’t fall to third here. Labor were on a high in 2022 due to dissatisfaction with the incumbent Coalition government, but in 2025 the dissatisfaction will be with Labor as the incumbent government (although not to the same extent, probably). That, combined with a sophomore surge, and the trend where the broad left vote often coalescing behind whichever party is deemed to have a better chance in the electorate, should deliver a swing against Labor on primaries, keeping the LNP in second and likely ensuring Chandler-Mather’s re-election.

I think there’s another cause for concern for Labor too. Griffith, more than most other electorates, is symptomatic of a trend some have identified, where the state of property sales and rent prices are dividing voters into two major camps: those who want prices to fall or flatline for more affordability, and those who want prices to continue rising.

While the first category obviously includes renters and prospective first home buyers, it can also include parents of adolescent children keeping an eye on their future prospects of home ownership, and home owners who still remember how hard it is to rent or enter the market. Similarly, while the second category obviously includes many property investors, it can also include single home owners who don’t want to be in negative equity, and those who aspire to be property investors. Now of course there are a third category of people who aren’t fussed either way about house prices, but I think this group is falling in numbers as the debate gets more polarising and starts to affect more of society overall.

The issue for Labor is that the Greens are more appealing than them to the first group, and the LNP are more appealing than them to the second group. And both these groups are well represented in Griffith, with South Brisbane and West End having a large renting population, while Bulimba-Hawthorne have many wealthy people who are likely property investors. Labor is left stuck in the middle, not fully serving the interests of either group, which harms their primary vote in an area where the Greens and LNP are both considered viable options. It remains to be seen whether Albanese’s government can find a way to appeal to both camps, but it’s a tricky tightrope to walk.

@chandler could be defeated by Labor preferncing the coalition but I doubt it would close the gap tbh, however I do believe he will be the successor to bandt as leader who could be beaten if Labor poll high enough on primaries and get coalition support on preferences

John, everything can happen, it’s just a question of likelihood. Of course Bandt can be beaten in Melbourne, but it’s unlikely. Coalition primary voters are known for sticking more closely to HTVs than Labor or Greens primary voters, but I imagine there will also be a fair few who will preference the Greens in the hope that Labor will be forced until minority government. Depends how much they think about the big picture I suppose.

@wilson yes but that’s gonna happen now anyway Labor got just about every seat it could in the last election. There were 7 seats that went 2pp Labor but were won by others. And they were in front in 4 fowler melbourne Clark and Griffith though I can’t remember the 7th seat……

@John
I think on pure Labor vs Liberal 2pp, the X-bench seat went:
Fowler, Melbourne, Clark and Griffith are notional Labor retains
Ryan, Brisbane and Mayo are notional Labor gains
All 7 teals, Indi and Kennedy are notional Liberal/LNP retains

Unlikely to flip in 2025. I suspect Labor will run dead here. This would ensure the LNP will finish 2nd on 2PP. The LNP could rebound, partly because Labor will run dead, and partly because the anti-Morrison and anti-Coalition factors have now gone. The dissatisfaction with the incumbent will be directed at Labor, rather than the LNP.

MCM had a clean sweep of all booths and even postals in 2022. Not even Bandt had a clean sweep in Melbourne. I’d say Ryan and Brisbane are less safe than Grififth and Melbourne.

@leon i think libs might be competitive in griffith but it will be a green hold still, ryan brisbane and mayo they may make gains even take the qld ones.
the teals will become vulnerable to a liberal “dont risk a labor minority Government” campaign given hwat happened last time.

I don’t think Labor will run dead, but I’m not sure they will spend a lot of resources on this seat now the Greens have got it. I heard on the ground last election, the Liberals did run dead in this seat. So it opened it up for the Greens to take it off Labor. And forced Labor to spend more resources in trying to retrain it when they could have been using those resources else where.

I heard the same thing and on election day as they became worried about Griffith they moved resources from Bonner to Griffith.
The issue for the Labor party is that it is vote in Inner Brisbane is being hollowed increased apartments and a younger demographic is causing this. It is the same issue in Brisbane. Even if everyone who voted last time voted the exact same way in Brisbane and Ryan, there are new voters and some older voters would have died or moved to a retirement village. Among younger voters, there is higher levels of support for minor parties than among older generations. It is a problem Labor will face in seats like Higgins and Macnamara where maybe not 2025 but 2028 they could fall to 3rd place purely by a structural change in the vote.

According to the link below Brisbane and Griffith are ranked 2 and 3 for the 18-29 demographic.

https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/electorates-where-young-people-have-most-power/13887530

The Australian reports Labor’s candidate to recover the Brisbane seat of Griffith, which Terri Butler lost to Max Chandler-Mather of the Greens in 2022, is likely to be Renée Coffey, chief executive of Kookaburra Kids, a foundation that helps children whose parents have a mental illness. Coffey is reportedly aligned with the Old Guard faction.

Whoever Labor puts up won’t have a chance given MCM currently holds it on the second biggest Green margin in the country (after Bandt in Melbourne) and the demos in the electorate are very Green or teal. The best Labor could do is push the LNP to third (in which they have a good chance of winning on LNP preferences) but the seat is solid green and the affluent areas aren’t Labor friendly either.

Agree Tommo9 the best hope life you said if the LNP gets pushed to third which is possible in Griffith but not Ryan or Brisbane.

@Political Nightwatchman also the fact that the candidate is from the Old Guard which I presume is the right faction won’t bode well with the seat. I know Rudd won it all those years ago but with the electorate getting more progressive you need someone from the left to even have a chance. Terri Butler had the momentum riding with her in 2022 and still lost. They’ll need someone of Ged Kearney’s calibre and background (left faction, high profile) to be able to wrestle this seat back.

Only certainty is that for as long as the population is getting younger and more progressive this seat won’t turn LNP blue, but whether Labor can capitalise on that and reposition itself as the alternate party in the 2PP is another story.

Lubs wot run 3rd here it will be a left vs right contest unlike Melbourne there is a strong enough lnp vote to keep them in the 2cp

@ Tommo9
I don’t think someone like Ged Kearney is the right fit for this seat. The reason is that the wealthier parts of this seat such Morningside, Hawthorne and Bulimba are more economically right-wing. You have an elite private school Churchie in this seat so it is a bit more like Macnamara than Cooper. In Cooper Ged Kearney also appeals to the working class parts like Reservoir with her union and left-wing economic background. Someone like Ged Kearney would be good for a seat like Wills. Cooper and Wills are more economically left-wing than Macnamara or Higgins.

@Tommo9 The Old Guard (now known as QLD Labor unity) is not the right faction. It is the centrist faction of the QLD ALP. Includes MPs such as Jonty Bush, Leanne Linard and Jess Pugh. The right faction of the QLD ALP is Labor Forum.

@AA you do realise that the Labor Right faction is not actually conservative, right? It is indeed the less progressive faction of the centre-left Labor Party. The Left faction is more progressive hence why it’s sometimes referred to as the Socialist Left faction, but it’s still a centre-left faction.

Australian major parties aren’t big tent, i.e they don’t have contrasted conservative and progressive wings on opposite sides of the political spectrum. The Liberal Party has the more centrist Moderate faction which is a more conservative than Labor Right, then there’s the Centre Right faction and then the most conservative faction, the National Right or simply the Conservative faction. But Liberal factions aren’t really formal anyway, but they’re still well defined.

While historically different Labor factions had contrasting views on many issues (e.g during the Cold War, the Right faction was more anti-communist than the Left faction), these days the main difference is that different factions have links to different trade unions.

@Nether Portal Of course I know that the right faction isn’t conservative. Where in my comment did I say that?

@Neither Portal, I would say Australian major parties are rather a big tent of the Right half (Libs/Nats) and Left Half (ALP) so I can safety you need a coalition of Voters to form government unlike Europe which is a coalition of parties.

The three inner-city Green seats in Brisbane – Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane – are very much the result of a lucky bounce for The Greens due to preferences and boundaries. In Griffith that was compounded by the ALP’s poor performance.

With a redistribution due after the next Federal election there is the potential for the electorates to swing back in 2028, with the LNP regaining Ryan, ALP regaining Griffith and The Greens holding Brisbane. In the longer term the huge new growth in the inner-city suburbs as a result of the Shaping SEQ Planning Policy are going to radically reshape the demographics.

@ Mark Yore

I actually feel that population growth around the Gabba and the Future Cross River Rail stations will actually force Griffith to loose more middle ring suburbs such as Carina, Holland Park and become much weaker for the ALP.

My understanding is that the Old Guard are closer to the Left than the Right in Queensland Labor. But also, my understanding is that the factions have no practical ideological difference any more, they’re just different patronage networks, corresponding to, as Nether Portal said, different unions. The Right’s Bill Shorten had a more progressive agenda than the Left’s Anthony Albanese.

@Nimalan
My thoughts are that the old arguments about the seat of Brisbane crossing the river are getting weaker and weaker.

If Griffith lost everything west of the Freeway (Kangaroo Point, Highgate Hill, West End and Dutton Park) and was pushed into Carindale with the Gateway Motorway as the boundary the Greens would have a much safer Brisbane at the cost of losing Griffith.

Putting 73 storey residential towers into West End is going to inevitably change the current makeup of Griffith.

@Wilson the old guard usually stay closer to the left. I reckon there is an ideological divide, maybe more so in NSW.

@ Mark Yore
Good Point. i did not consider any potential river crossings i agree if Griffith loses West End etc and is replaced with middle class areas such as Carindale it will become better for ALP. It will in essence become like the 1996 version of Griffith.

One advantage that MCM has is his age. He’s 32 and a very high proportion of this electorate is aged 18 to 35. The percentage is amongst the highest in the country outside the electorates named after capital cities. He’s way younger than the average MP and the typical, disillusioned under 35 year old will feel more connected to him as an anti establishment MP. The demographics are against Labor and LNP. In addition to youth, a huge portion of voters are renters and/or degree-holders.

@nimalan isnt west end more heavily labor then carindale?

No Greens leader so far had presided over more than two federal elections. While Adam Bandt might become the first, if he stays true to the pattern, then 2025 will be his last election as leader. Given Chandler-Mather’s ability to draw media attention and the seeming preference for a leader from the lower house (as Bandt became national leader over more senior colleagues, ditto for Ellen Sandell in Victorian parliament), I would imagine he would become the next Greens leader, which will only help his profile and make Griffith safer for him.

John, that is true but West End has a high Greens vote with Greens leading on primary vote. Therefore, the replacement of this area with a more swing like suburb will result in the Liberal vote rising and forcing the green vote lower, thus allowing Labor to win on Liberal preferences (unless the Liberals poll high enough and Labor slumps to third place, therefore producing a Greens win and a Greens vs Liberal 2CP count).

@yoh an removing such a high left voting area could in fact make it a liberal gain as the seat was marginal since 2013. the left vote only increased at the last election as it did elsewhere in qld due to the anti govt and anti-morrison vote and should become marginal again at the next election but MCM should hold it but given the upcoming redistribution and the fact if the greens are waging the tail of the govt again the libs should be able to win the seat in 2028 especially if west end is removed

Yeah, agree John – given that Labor is losing support to the LNP in almost all white majority swing type suburbs. The loss of a strong Greens voting area could mean the LNP vote is high enough to overcome the strong preference flow between the two left parties (at least 45% to achieve this outcome).

@ John what i meant was that West End is strong area for the Greens where the Greens outpoll Labor on primaries easily while Carindale is a middle class area which votes between Labor/LNP where the Green primary vote is lower so it will be demographically a very different seat if that happens.

yea but if it loses the strong left voting area the seat which is normally marginally alp and only attracts a sfae alp vote in years when the coalition are defeated from govt griffith would more then likely fall to the lnp after the loss of such a strong left leaning vote because that vote from the greens flows to the alp and vice versa and without it the lnp should easily overcome labor on 2pp in a good year

Agree John it maybe more like Bonner than the current Griffith

I really doubt the AEC would move the Kurilpa peninsula out of Griffith at all. Not crossing the river seems to be their modus operandi and I don’t know why that would change.

between 2013-2019 inclusive it was marginal and was pretty much propped up by rudds vote until 2013. they couldnt even win the seat whilst coming from opposition people would rather vote green and the 2pp and 2cp seems to be very similar. a good year for the lnp and loss of west end would likely see this go to the lnp.

@wilson agreed they wont cross the river in two places as blair already crosses it. but it could still be moved into moreton to the west which is on the south side of the river

Surely the logical thing would be for Bowman to stay the same, as it’s entirely Redlands council, Bonner to take a bit from Griffith, and then Griffith to take Annerley from Moreton. Ryan can gain Mt Crosby from Blair and a bit of Brisbane and that’s the inner city mostly sorted.

The Libs have no chance of winning this even without Kangaroo Point/West End. The kind of seat that is only going to further drift away from them.