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it is just interesting to see if the Greens made the 2CP on state figures
@Nimalan I would estimate that Labor got about 37%, the LNP got 35% and the Greens got 25% or something like that.
That’s on primaries by the way so the other 3% is One Nation.
Also now I’ve done all the Brisbane seats I can start on the three Gold Coast seats and Herbert then later the regional seats.
My opiion, the Abortion issue hurt the Greens vote too at the state Election, so the State figures in Griffith don’t mean a lot.
Unless Labor can weaponise Abortion at the Federal Poll, which might be it’s only chance of a win.
Then i’d say they’re regaining Griffith and Brisbane and holding Moreton and Lilley..
@ NP
So the Greens will be knocked out of the 2CP hypothetically if the numbers were repeated.
greens should remain in the 2cp here
@Nimalan yes, but I don’t see it happening to be honest.
The only seat in Griffith that the Greens didn’t finish third in was South Brisbane where they finished first and lost on LNP preferences. What should scare the Greens though is that while MCM’s high profile should mean he’s fine, South Brisbane is meant to be the best place for the Greens in all of Queensland.
@ NP
I dont see the Greens getting knocked out the 2CP in Griffith either. It is probably my advice to them not to get too cocky and try to win Moreton and watch their back in a seat like Brisbane. The big mistake that the Greens made at the QLD state election they targeted too many seats in fact they had a 10 seat strategy they failed to watch their back in South Brisbane with a reverse of preference flows.
the LNP is high enoguh for them to finish in the top 2 here and i dont see labor knocking out the greens. i think however the LNP will finish first
Moreton voted Yes to The Voice, so it should be winnable for The Greens.
To my previous comment, The Greens aren’t crystal clear on Reproductive Rights.
I think that’s what hurt them at the State poll, potential LNP voters in the City of Brisbane stayed with Labor ad The Greens lost their protest voters to Labor.
Whoever ran the Labor campaign is a genius, saved them 15 seats, 5 of which would’ve gone Green, imo.
@Gympie no Moreton narrowly voted No. The only Queensland seats that voted Yes were the three Greens seats and even then Ryan was close.
I’ve downgraded my seat forecast for the Greens and upgraded it for Labor. The Greens vote may be at its peak. The Labor candidate must feel energised following the party’s win in South Brisbane at the state election.
The Greens margin seems overinflated. There were huge double-digit primary vote swings to the Greens last election in the east (e.g. Bulimba, Morningside) and in the south (e.g. Holland Park). These areas are quite suburban and normally Labor/LNP voting.
A possible scenario is that the LNP falls to third place as the candidate runs dead and because LNP voters vote tactically for Labor. In this case, LNP to Labor preferences, coupled with a decline in Greens votes, will make Labor win. I’m not sure if Albanese is popular in inner-city areas but I don’t expect him to campaign here as he’d leave up to locals and maybe Steven Miles.
@Votante meanwhile Adrian Schrinner could campaign in Ryan and perhaps even Brisbane.
@hi Tanya a LNP is not entirely off the cards here. Given labor’s poor standing in qld if the LNP finishes first with at least 40% greens second then LNP could theoretically win off labor and minor party preferences
Votante* dry autpcorrect
it makes no sense for the LNP to run dead here or for people to tactically vote labor. the lanp can totally win this seat. if they were to poll at least 40% of the vote and greens and labor to be under 50% combined with greens second. given the rest of the vote is likely to be uap and onp they could strip enough votes from labor to win the seat
This is not a seat the LNP can get close to 40% in any longer. It’s the Melbourne Ports/Macnamara of Queensland. In other words, territory they have lost any prospects in over the last decade. The demographics have become far too unfavourable.
I would say that Labor’s prospects are quite good just viewing how the LNP vote has declined every single election since 2013. Even if the LNP do well in Queensland/nationwide this is a trend that is likely to continue. All Labor requires is to beat the LNP on 3CP since preferences would ensure Labor win if that happens. Even if the LNP vote stays level or has a small bump there can be a larger swap between Greens and Labor votes if Labor mounts an effective campaign.
If the LNP think they are better served having a Labor MP rather than a Greens MP they would certainly be better off running dead here (I think this is highly debatable at best however, the counterargument is that MCM’s presence hurts Labor and thus benefits the federal Coalition).
At this moment, though I still think it’s more likely a Greens hold than not, because without evidence to the contrary I would think MCM’s vote doesn’t fall. But I don’t think there are many “rusted on” Greens voters and we’ve seen many recent elections where they switch to a different party on the left (including Labor).
@Adda
LNP got 44% in Griffith in 2014, against 10 other candidates it wasn’t enough.
https://results.aec.gov.au/17552/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17552-163.htm
Labor’s vote has collapsed in Griffith, previously it depended on Green preferences, now it depends on the LNP running 3rd to win.
Not a long term strategy imo, Dutton’s coattails should be long enough to drag a good candidate over the line in Griffith, Moreton and Lilley too.
@adda i wouldnt say that because the 2022 was a lowtide election for the LNP. they have consistenyl polled 40% on the primary or close to it for nearly 30 years except in elections where there was a change of government as in 2007. and te vote then recovered over the next 4 elections where they consistently came close. so i would not doubt the vote recovering again. despite their antics having greens mps in the lower house hurts labor in the same way having teals/independents hurts the coalition. the fact that labor prefences leak greater to the coalition then greens to the coalition means labor finishing thrid gives the coalition a glimmer of hope they can win the seat if they could poll 40% and finish first greens finishing second could mean the coalition can win here especially given unlike macnamara there is a strong enough combined uap/onp vote to help them over the line
@Adda
This is not a seat the LNP can get close to 40% in any longer.
It did so in 2019 witrh an everage candidate.
My opinion, 2022 was a outlier, the issues that caused a 10% drop in LNP PVs are history now and Chandler Mather has no achievements as the Member.
The reality is 64% didn’t want him in 2022 and if voting or preferencing LNP is what is nevessary to see the back of him, that’s what will happen.
Even in a strong election for the federal Coalition they won’t rebound to 40% here. The shifting voting demographics to this electorate are, just like every other inner urban capital city, trending to the left. This isn’t about to reverse. To simply look at past results underestimates how quickly the ground has shifted.
The LNP’s gains in blue-collar electorates are balanced out by losing out in more cosmopolitan and educated areas. This is what makes a seat like Hunter one of their prime targets this election when it was formerly out of reach, and what makes this seat out of reach when it used to be a target.