Grey – Australia 2025

LIB 10.1%

Incumbent MP
Rowan Ramsey, since 2007.

Geography
Grey covers the vast majority of the geographical expanse of South Australia. Grey covers South Australia’s borders with Western Australia, the Northern Territory, Queensland and New South Wales. It covers most of the coast of South Australia, including everything west of the Yorke Peninsula. Main towns include Port Pirie, Port Augusta, Port Lincoln, Whyalla, Coober Pedy and Roxby Downs.

History
Grey is an original electorate, having been created in 1903. The seat was first won by the ALP’s Alexander Poynton, who had been elected as a Free Trade MP in 1901, when South Australia elected its parliamentary delegation at large.

Poynton strongly supported conscription and followed Billy Hughes into the Nationalist Party in 1916.

Poynton was defeated by Andrew Lacey in 1922. Lacey held the seat until his defeat by Philip McBride (UAP) in 1931. Lacey went on to win a seat in the South Australian House of Assembly in 1933 and became Leader of the Opposition until 1938.

McBride held Grey for the UAP from 1931 until 1937, when he made a swap with Country Party senator Albert Badman, with Badman winning Grey and McBride taking Badman’s seat in the Senate. McBride held the Senate seat until his defeat in 1943, and then served as Member for Wakefield from 1946 to 1958, serving as a minister in the Menzies government.

Badman held the seat of Grey until 1943, effectively serving as a member of the UAP for his final years after the collapse of the Country Party in South Australia.

In 1943, Badman was defeated by Edgar Russell (ALP). Russell began a 50-year period of the ALP holding Grey except for a single election, and he served as a backbencher until his death in 1963. Jack Mortimer won the seat for the ALP in 1963, but was defeated by Liberal Don Jessop in 1966. Jessop only held the seat for one term, losing to Laurie Wallis in 1969. Jessop then won a seat in the Senate in 1970 and served there until 1987.

Wallis held Grey from 1969 to 1983, when he retired. He was succeeded by Lloyd O’Neil, who held the seat for the ALP from 1983 until his retirement in 1993.

The redistribution before the 1993 had expanded Grey to include rural areas to the west of Port Pirie and Port Augusta, after the seat had been limited to the immediate coastal strip for decades. This improved the position of the Liberal Party, and Barry Wakelin won the seat off the ALP at the 1993 election.

Wakelin held the seat until 2007, when he retired and was succeeded by Rowan Ramsey. Ramsey has been re-elected four times.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Rowan Ramsey is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Grey is a safe Liberal seat.

2022 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rowan Ramsey Liberal 46,730 45.3 -5.3
Julie Watson Labor 22,068 21.4 -1.4
Liz Habermann Independent 11,613 11.3 +11.3
Tim White Greens 6,994 6.8 +2.2
Kerry Ann White One Nation 6,452 6.3 -2.4
Suzanne Waters United Australia 5,781 5.6 +1.9
Peter Miller Liberal Democrats 1,427 1.4 +1.4
Richard Carmody Independent 1,332 1.3 -0.5
Tracey Dempsey Federation Party 721 0.7 +0.7
Informal 7,674 6.9 +0.0

2022 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Rowan Ramsey Liberal 61,938 60.1 -3.3
Julie Watson Labor 41,180 39.9 +3.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into eight areas. There are four major towns in the electorate: Whyalla, Port Lincoln, Port Pirie and Port Augusta. Polling places in these towns have been grouped together.

The remainder of the electorate has been split between:

  • Central – Barunga West, Copper Coast, Mallala, Wakefield and Yorke Peninsula council areas.
  • East – Clare and Gilbert Valleys, Flinders Ranges, Goyder, Light, Mount Remarkable, Northern Areas, Orroroo Carrieton, Peterborough council areas, and those parts of Port Pirie council area outside of the Port Pirie urban area.
  • Outback – Polling places in northern parts of the seat, including Coober Pedy, Roxby Downs and Woomera.
  • West – Those polling places in the south of the electorate to the west of Whyalla.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in six out of eight areas, ranging from 50.3% in Port Pirie to 73.2% in the west. Labor polled 52% in Port Augusta and 60% in Whyalla.

The vote for independents ranged from 7.6% in the centre to 26.6% in the west.

Voter group IND prim LIB 2PP Total votes % of votes
Central 7.6 64.4 17,905 17.4
East 10.7 65.6 13,416 13.0
West 26.6 73.2 7,913 7.7
Whyalla 8.8 40.0 5,719 5.5
Port Pirie 10.6 50.3 3,968 3.8
Port Lincoln 25.9 58.2 3,671 3.6
Port Augusta 11.2 48.0 2,450 2.4
Outback 8.9 54.3 1,493 1.4
Pre-poll 12.7 56.0 28,742 27.9
Other votes 11.9 63.4 17,841 17.3

Election results in Grey at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and independent candidate Liz Habermann.

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43 COMMENTS

  1. Ramsey is retiring.

    I think between Labor’s industrial heartland, rural independents doing well (see Geoff Brock), and more indigenous voters over the Voice, it could end up being close.

    Hard to see it all coming together and Liberals win by “default” without momentum for something else here. But I think a teal could take it if Labor juices the vote in their areas as well.

  2. @John you’re joking, right? A teal in Grey? Hahahaha!

    Grey is a very remote and rural seat and a very safe Liberal seat. Although Whyalla has traditionally voted Labor due to it being industrial and working-class, that has decreased over the years and the Liberals are actually starting to win booths in Whyalla. It’s a similar trend that’s being seen in Broken Hill, a working-class industrial town that traditionally voted Labor but the Nationals are starting to gain more and more ground there, and a similar trend can also be seen in other industrial cities and towns.

    As for the Voice referendum: the No vote in Grey was 79.44%, the highest No vote in South Australia, the highest No vote outside Queensland and the seventh-highest No vote in the entire country (only behind six regional Queensland seats: Maranoa, Flynn, Capricornia, Hinkler, Dawson and Kennedy).

    Geoff Brock is the member for the state seat of Stuart which covers only part of Grey (the main towns there are Port Augusta and Port Pirie) and he’s more of a centrist independent.

    A teal wouldn’t even come close to Liberal and Labor. Barring the 2016 federal election where the NXT did well in South Australia before being renamed to the Centre Alliance and dropping dead in 2019 (except in Mayo where Rebekha Sharkie is still the MP).

    As for Giles: yes it includes some conservative remote towns such as Coober Pedy and some remote Aboriginal communities on Pitantjatjara country, but overall it’s mostly based on Whyalla.

  3. Here’s a comparison of the Liberal TPP here, federal (2022, Grey) vs state (2022, Giles):

    Rural booths:
    Andamooka: 53.9% vs 44.9%
    Coober Pedy: 53.0% vs 44.9%
    Hawker: 63.4% vs 57.1%
    Iron Knob: 56.3% vs 43.6%
    Port Augusta West: 48.5% vs 32.2%
    Quorn: 67.1% vs 51.4%
    Roxby Downs: 55.8% vs 38.1%
    Woomera: 71.1% vs 46.4% (note: the swing to the federal Liberals in Woomera was 11.8%, which is huge)

    Whyalla:
    Whyalla Central East: 45.8% vs 24.9%
    Whyalla Central West: 38.6% vs 25.5%
    Whyalla Norrie East: 40.0% vs 24.7%
    Whyalla Norrie North: 38.5% vs 20.4%
    Whyalla Norrie South: 38.7% vs 18.5%

    One thing I will note is that the TPP swing to Labor in Giles in 2022 was relatively large (keeping in mind the statewide TPP swing to Labor was also relatively large), whereas the TPP swing to Labor in Grey was only average and it was similar to the nationwide and statewide trends. However, it is clear that the federal Liberals do much better than the state Liberals in these towns.

  4. Centre Alliance (NXT) got 48% 2PP in 2016. It’s possible that a strong independent could prove competitive especially with a retiring member. Although a teal scored 48% 2PP in Cowper and made the final 2 in Wannon, I doubt a largely rural electorate with traditionally blue-collar port towns i.e. Whyalla, Port Pirie and Port Augusta would be teal-friendly.

    A major headwind for independents is the LNP’s pro-nuclear agenda as there are huge uranium deposits. Uranium mining and the initiation of nuclear energy could be seen as a lifeline for rust-belt towns.

  5. Labor even with a good vote
    In the iron triangle towns… av of 60% which I’d unlikely. Cannot win here because these towns make up to little of the federal seat.

  6. @Votante the teal in Cowper was only popular in Coffs Harbour, Nambucca and Bellingen. Port Macquarie and Kempsey voted strongly for the Nationals like always. The independent (Caz Heise) is from Coffs Harbour while the Nationals MP (Pat Conaghan) is from Port Macquarie. Though in saying that both times when Rob Oakeshott contested Cowper he didn’t win booths in Port Macquarie despite being from there (Luke Hartsukyer is from Coffs Harbour).

  7. NXT would have won in 2016 if Labor didn’t do open ticket HTVs. Compared to teals NXT were better at getting the “disgruntled” vote that the far right has largely claimed in subsequent elections, but I don’t think it’s beyond a solid independent to get preferences from both PHON and Labor/Greens over the Liberals.

    Looking at state seats, the path to get this out of the blue column is Labor getting something closer to their state vote, and an independent getting enough momentum in the rest of the electorate to win on Labor preferences. Independents hold 2 of the seats, are close on 2PP in a 3rd, and used to hold a 4th. The 5th seat making up Grey is ultra safe Labor seat Giles

  8. @John the problem is you’d need the right independent to unseat the Liberals in Grey. Flinders covers the southern part of Grey and it’s a Liberal seat (marginal vs independent but very safe vs Labor). Labor has never held Flinders as a single-member seat. Flinders covers Port Augusta, Ceduna and the surrounding towns from the Eyre Peninsula all the way to the Nullabor Plain and the border with Western Australia.

  9. Port Augusta which is about about 2-3 hour or so drive from Adelaide, does not belong in the same electorate as Ceduna and the border towns (Border Village) Geographically Port Augusta would be more suited in Geoff Brocks seat. There should be a Western SA seat instead of the weird boundaries rural SA currently has.

  10. Daniel, the problem is that federal seats have to contain at least 100k voters to meet quota purposes. That can only be achieved by having geographically large rural seats like Grey and Maranoa. That is why Parliament should be expanded at least to 180 seats that would minimise the geographical extent of these rural seats.

  12. The Liberals have chosen Tom Venning, the son of former state MP Ivan Venning, as their candidate for Grey in 2025. The preselection was held 15 September 2024 in Port Augusta.

  15. Would be interesting to see if Labor campaigned Whyalla, Port Augusta, Port Pirie and Port Lincoln if they could narrow the margin here or pick it up.

  16. @ SpaceFish the issue is that redistributions have moved it into more agricultural areas as there is relative population decline in the Iron Triangle towns. Each time SA has lost a seat it is has got worse for Labor in Grey. An expansion of parliament is the only hope for Labor to pick up this seat.

  17. Unless if Grey becomes an exclusive ‘Iron Triangle’ seat consisting of only Whyalla, Port Pirie and Port Augusta it’s extremely unlikely for Labor to get this back, and even then that sort of seat would be logistically impossible to draw out as you’ll have to draw a strange electorate to include Pt Lincoln which is south of Whyalla as well as surrounds. Even in places like Pt Augusta the Liberals have been gaining strength, whilst Whyalla and Pt Pirie are still holding strong along with some far north remote communities in the state (with a high Aboriginal population).

    Grey is in fact one of the two ‘impossible’ seats for Labor, along with Barker, due to the presence of Agricultural and rural areas elsewhere in the state that heavily skews Liberal.

  18. The Labor vote in Whyalla and to a lesser extent, Port Augusta and Port Pirie are no match for the Liberal vote everywhere else in Grey. An independent may have a better shot at winning as I alluded to in my previous post.

  19. I agree with @Tommo9 and @Votante, Labor can’t win this. Industrial towns just aren’t as friendly for Labor as they used to be. Even Gladstone is now only a fairly safe seat.

  20. Nether Portal, Votante, James, Mick: you all might like to revisit Grey in the light of Steelworks going into receivership & the teal gold starting to flow. Has labor actually selected a candidate yet?

  21. Yes i agree that the fed parliament should be enlarged. Not because of large distances forced on seats like this but just to make it easier for any mp to provide better representation. Now 100k to 130k average should be maybe about 70k average

  22. @Roger – a teal won’t win. Focusing on climate action and gender equality will not be seen in a rural electorate where concerns would be around employment, cost of living, and local infrastructure/roads. A community independent (think Geoff Brock) would do well though.

  24. For a teal to win they’d have to run, and they haven’t said they’re running here (or anywhere in SA actually).

  26. If Grey was based off of Whyalla, Port Augusta and Port Pirie alone it would be a safe Labor seat. It’s everywhere else that makes this seat super safe for the Liberals.

    As for Geoff Brock’s chances if he was to (hypothetically) ever contest Grey. It’s hard to tell. He’s very popular in the eastern side of the electorate such as the Flinders ranges, the sparsely populated Marree, Leigh Creek, Hawker etc and not to mention Port Pirie where he is mega popular. But it’ll be much harder to measure his popularity everywhere else. He might find himself popular in Labor strongholds like Whyalla and to a lesser extent, Port Augusta, but the rest of the place is very conservative, particularly the Clare Valley and the satellite suburbs outside of Gawler.

    Liberal Hold regardless.

  27. @NP The Community Independent Anita Kuss is running in Grey and is receiving funding from the Climate 200 group. That’s pretty close to the undefined “Teal”.
    Same with Dr Verity Cooper in Sturt.

  30. Mr Bock I don’t think is well enough to contest Grey. He does not have much support in the strong liberal areas.
    But runs up margins in the Labor areas in the industrial cities

  31. Liz Habermann was also a Climate 200 supported candidate in 2022 but fell short of the final 2… LIB 51.13% vs. ALP 26.97% vs. IND 21.89% at the final 3.

    So it’s possible that Anita Kuss makes the final 2 if Labor goes backwards, but she’s going to need to bring the Liberal primary from 45% down to 40% to have any hope of winning. The seat was almost lost to NXT in 2016 so it shows that it can be close.

    The loss of Rowan Ramsey’s personal vote may help, and the Liberal candidate Tom Venning gives off nepotism vibes, but unlikely to move the needle enough. My completely unfounded guess… LIB 6% vs. IND

  34. If you took 5% off due to retirement of the liberal mp.this seat is 40 liberal. 60.other. bur approx 14% far right.
    There is a chance if everyone put the liberals last then someone else could win

  35. Any loss of personal vote is easily offset by the swing back to the libs. Long time mps usually retire at two key points. When the party is facing defeat and they don’t want to spend the rest of their career in opposition. And when it is likely the party will experience an electoral boost so that their retirement won’t adversely affect the party. I believ this is why Warren entsch chose to retire.

  36. Grey has been taken for a ride by Liberals for the past few decades. Do you really want a federal puppet representing Grey? Time for a change.

  38. “There is a chance if everyone put the liberals last then someone else could win”

    Basic maths and logic show that if everybody put the Liberals last then somebody else WOULD win.

  39. @Angas: Your guess isn’t unfounded. Federal YouGov MRP recorded Liberal, Labor and independent primary votes for Grey were Liberal 42.9%, Labor 19.1%, independent 15.1% respectively.
    Estimated 3CP are:
    LIB: 49.22
    IND: 26.14
    ALP: 24.64

    80% ALP preference flows to IND would get the IND to 45.85% 2CP and LIB to 54.15% 2CP. LIB 6% vs. IND is entirely possible.

  41. Joseph: YouGov poll is useless at seat level. it’s about 60 people? Two wrong – oops – it’s a landslide! The whole poll is problematical as it is all volunteers no doubt scientifically adjusted by reference to census & other factors. The triumph of self selection & science over actual good old fashion labor intensive polling? This explains why ON always gets 7.5% in YouGov & 5.3% in ballot box? ON love to hear their own voices? Grey will stay Liberal unless there is a genuine community independent (not Teal).

  43. It’s rare for Nats to run in SA given how few regional or rural seats there are and also, they can’t challenge a sitting Liberal.

    Let’s see how he goes in Whyalla, his home turf, as well as Port Pirie and Port Augusta – the three largest towns in Grey.

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