Greenway – Australia 2025

Housing development in the north of this seat and cost of living issues will affect the outcome here.Expect a sizeable swing,although probably not enough to prevent Michelle Rowland from being re elected.
If there are any surprise on election night,this may be one of them.

How about Rowland herself? Not the face of the most popular legislation that came before the parliament I’d say – any potential impact?

I think there will be a swing against Labor but it would be much bigger if Rowland wasn’t running. She seems pretty popular in the last few terms and against the tide she held the seat when everyone thought this seat was going to go blue in 2013. Yes Jaymes Diaz was a dud but Rowland’s definitely got a personal vote particularly given she’s been an incumbent for 5 terms now.

The areas transferred into Greenway is from the Hills which is obviously Liberal heartland. So the fate of the seat will be determined by the southern end (Blacktown, Quaker Hill etc).

Michelle Rowland is quite a popular MP who has solidified her personal vote. She even held when the LNP won nationwide in a landslide in 2013, but to be fair, she was against a sloppy Liberal candidate.

The high Liberal margins east of Windsor Road, formerly of Mitchell but now in Greenway, might be misleading as Labor didn’t bother to campaign in Mitchell. I doubt the Liberals are serious about this seat this election.

Interestingly, this is in the middle of a mortgage belt but in many suburbs, the median incomes and uni degree holders per capita are high. I agree that cost of living will swing the electorate and this is mortgage heartland. Because of the higher household incomes, there is perhaps less mortgage stress than in SW Sydney.

Yeah according to Martin North’s mapping on mortgage stress (if I am reading it right) the problem is worse in Chifley and Parramatta than this seat particularly

I’d expect Michelle Rowland to hold on here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see large swings away in some of the growth areas around Gables, Box Hill, Tallawong and Schofields.

I think her support will hold up in the more established suburbs in the north of the electorate, like Glenwood, Stanhope Gardens and Kellyville Ridge, where she has better recognition and has built up her profile. The demographic and the issues in these areas are a bit different to the newer growth areas.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see larger swings in the working class areas around Blacktown and Lalor Park too.

The Liberal Party have botched campaigning in Greenway more times than they care to remember:
2010 – under-estimated the potential swing and left themselves short, especially with Louise Markus moving with her Hawkesbury Supporters to Macquarie
2013 – the Diaz Debarcle
2016 – the botched campaign for Yvonne Keane, mismanaged from the start by Alex Hawke
2019 – once again, under-estimated the potential in this seat and ran a dud candidate.
2022 – never going to come close in that election

The redistribution should have this seat solidly in play, especially given that the equivalent state seats in sections of this seat have voted Liberal MPs. But the Liberal Party have been a basket-case in NW Sydney thanks to the Shenanigans of Alex Hawke and this means that this seat will be a bridge too far.

Labor retain because the Liberal Party can’t get their shit together in this seat.

Any opinion on the current Liberal candidate Rattan Virk?

I’m curious how Box Hill will swing. It was in Mitchell (blue-ribbon Liberal), and where Labor doesn’t really try at all there. With an actual Labor campaign it should be close, but I would say they would be comfortably Liberal still as the Hills is particularly conservative.

@redistributed – no clue but fortunately haven’t heard any bad things about the campaign. Hopefully for the Liberals she could win the seat as she seems relatively neutral in comparison to the duds who’ve ran here before (Pathi, Green, especially Diaz).

Re Box Hill
You mean the new part added from Mitchell?
Still bad on the results map.
But every where else Labor won.
Green way 8% to alp
Mitchell 10% to alp

@mick labor are not getting a swing o them in either mitchell or greenway. id say 6% swing to libs in both

The Liberal campaign is much more active in Greenway then Mitchell. Virk plans to knock every door. I doubt the swing will be the same.

@ben if the lib get anything higher then a 6% swing in greenway theyve probably won the seat

Margin 8% Greenway

Was posting re what happened 2022
Not a prediction
Both held by current parties

the margin in green way was 11% but was wittled down to 7.5% after redistribution

Rattan Virk is another Hawke-ite. Enough said…

Rattan Virk is certainly making her presence known, much more active than Michelle Rowland’s campaign from what I’ve seen.

She comes across as quite professional, approachable and straight forward – but I think there’s a big mountain to climb given Michelle Rowland’s profile in the community.

One thing to note is the mass of new families arriving in Greenway into new housing estates, especially around Tallawong and Box Hill. They likely won’t know Michelle Rowland in comparison to places like The Ponds or Blacktown. The Liberals have a good opportunity here.

Agree, James. Tallawong/Schofields/Box Hill is where there has been rapid population growth, and is the area most likely to be affected by issues such as cost of living and infrastructure.

Whereas residents in Glenwood, Kellyville Ridge, Stanhope Gardens, and The Ponds have well established schooling infrastructure, easy access to the M1 Metro Line and likely to have paid down more of their mortgage, whilst seeing a rapid increase in property values, so less impacted by inflation and CoL. I’d suspect healthcare would be a more pressing issue around there.