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Housing development in the north of this seat and cost of living issues will affect the outcome here.Expect a sizeable swing,although probably not enough to prevent Michelle Rowland from being re elected.
If there are any surprise on election night,this may be one of them.
How about Rowland herself? Not the face of the most popular legislation that came before the parliament I’d say – any potential impact?
I think there will be a swing against Labor but it would be much bigger if Rowland wasn’t running. She seems pretty popular in the last few terms and against the tide she held the seat when everyone thought this seat was going to go blue in 2013. Yes Jaymes Diaz was a dud but Rowland’s definitely got a personal vote particularly given she’s been an incumbent for 5 terms now.
The areas transferred into Greenway is from the Hills which is obviously Liberal heartland. So the fate of the seat will be determined by the southern end (Blacktown, Quaker Hill etc).
Michelle Rowland is quite a popular MP who has solidified her personal vote. She even held when the LNP won nationwide in a landslide in 2013, but to be fair, she was against a sloppy Liberal candidate.
The high Liberal margins east of Windsor Road, formerly of Mitchell but now in Greenway, might be misleading as Labor didn’t bother to campaign in Mitchell. I doubt the Liberals are serious about this seat this election.
Interestingly, this is in the middle of a mortgage belt but in many suburbs, the median incomes and uni degree holders per capita are high. I agree that cost of living will swing the electorate and this is mortgage heartland. Because of the higher household incomes, there is perhaps less mortgage stress than in SW Sydney.
Yeah according to Martin North’s mapping on mortgage stress (if I am reading it right) the problem is worse in Chifley and Parramatta than this seat particularly