ALP 8.0%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.
Geography
Western suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers north-eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and a small part of the Hills council area. Suburbs include Parklea, Glenwood, Kings Park, Kings Langley, Kellyville Ridge, Lalor Park, The Ponds, Nelson and Riverstone, and parts of Seven Hills.
Redistribution
Greenway shifted north, losing Prospect, the remainder of Blacktown and parts of Seven Hills to McMahon, and losing Girraween to Parramatta. Greenway then gained Box Hill, Gables and Nelson from the northern end of Mitchell. These changes cut the Labor margin from 11.5% to 8.0%.
History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.
Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.
The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.
The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.
Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010, and has been re-elected four times.
- Leigh Burns (Independent)
- Michelle Rowland (Labor)
- Palaniappan Subramanian (Greens)
- Rattan Virk (Liberal)
Assessment
The new boundaries are less favourable to the ALP, but they should retain Greenway.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 48,551 | 48.3 | +2.3 | 44.8 |
| Pradeep Pathi | Liberal | 29,932 | 29.8 | -10.8 | 33.4 |
| Damien Atkins | Greens | 7,086 | 7.0 | +1.6 | 7.6 |
| Mark Rex | United Australia | 4,359 | 4.3 | +1.4 | 4.1 |
| Adam Kachwalla | Liberal Democrats | 3,014 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 3.0 |
| Riccardo Bosi | Independent | 3,272 | 3.3 | +3.3 | 2.9 |
| Rick Turner | One Nation | 2,710 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.7 |
| Love Preet Singh | Independent | 1,615 | 1.6 | +1.6 | 1.4 |
| Informal | 8,999 | 8.2 | +1.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Michelle Rowland | Labor | 61,864 | 61.5 | +8.7 | 58.0 |
| Pradeep Pathi | Liberal | 38,675 | 38.5 | -8.7 | 42.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas. “South” covers those areas south of the M7, with the remainder split into “Central” and “North”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all fivthreee areas, ranging from 52.3% in the north to 63% in the south.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 52.3 | 17,677 | 20.9 |
| Central | 62.2 | 13,311 | 15.7 |
| South | 63.0 | 11,025 | 13.0 |
| Pre-poll | 58.5 | 28,831 | 34.1 |
| Other votes | 56.1 | 13,713 | 16.2 |
Election results in Greenway at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Housing development in the north of this seat and cost of living issues will affect the outcome here.Expect a sizeable swing,although probably not enough to prevent Michelle Rowland from being re elected.
If there are any surprise on election night,this may be one of them.
How about Rowland herself? Not the face of the most popular legislation that came before the parliament I’d say – any potential impact?
I think there will be a swing against Labor but it would be much bigger if Rowland wasn’t running. She seems pretty popular in the last few terms and against the tide she held the seat when everyone thought this seat was going to go blue in 2013. Yes Jaymes Diaz was a dud but Rowland’s definitely got a personal vote particularly given she’s been an incumbent for 5 terms now.
The areas transferred into Greenway is from the Hills which is obviously Liberal heartland. So the fate of the seat will be determined by the southern end (Blacktown, Quaker Hill etc).
Michelle Rowland is quite a popular MP who has solidified her personal vote. She even held when the LNP won nationwide in a landslide in 2013, but to be fair, she was against a sloppy Liberal candidate.
The high Liberal margins east of Windsor Road, formerly of Mitchell but now in Greenway, might be misleading as Labor didn’t bother to campaign in Mitchell. I doubt the Liberals are serious about this seat this election.
Interestingly, this is in the middle of a mortgage belt but in many suburbs, the median incomes and uni degree holders per capita are high. I agree that cost of living will swing the electorate and this is mortgage heartland. Because of the higher household incomes, there is perhaps less mortgage stress than in SW Sydney.
Yeah according to Martin North’s mapping on mortgage stress (if I am reading it right) the problem is worse in Chifley and Parramatta than this seat particularly
I’d expect Michelle Rowland to hold on here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see large swings away in some of the growth areas around Gables, Box Hill, Tallawong and Schofields.
I think her support will hold up in the more established suburbs in the north of the electorate, like Glenwood, Stanhope Gardens and Kellyville Ridge, where she has better recognition and has built up her profile. The demographic and the issues in these areas are a bit different to the newer growth areas.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see larger swings in the working class areas around Blacktown and Lalor Park too.
The Liberal Party have botched campaigning in Greenway more times than they care to remember:
2010 – under-estimated the potential swing and left themselves short, especially with Louise Markus moving with her Hawkesbury Supporters to Macquarie
2013 – the Diaz Debarcle
2016 – the botched campaign for Yvonne Keane, mismanaged from the start by Alex Hawke
2019 – once again, under-estimated the potential in this seat and ran a dud candidate.
2022 – never going to come close in that election
The redistribution should have this seat solidly in play, especially given that the equivalent state seats in sections of this seat have voted Liberal MPs. But the Liberal Party have been a basket-case in NW Sydney thanks to the Shenanigans of Alex Hawke and this means that this seat will be a bridge too far.
Labor retain because the Liberal Party can’t get their shit together in this seat.
Any opinion on the current Liberal candidate Rattan Virk?
I’m curious how Box Hill will swing. It was in Mitchell (blue-ribbon Liberal), and where Labor doesn’t really try at all there. With an actual Labor campaign it should be close, but I would say they would be comfortably Liberal still as the Hills is particularly conservative.
@redistributed – no clue but fortunately haven’t heard any bad things about the campaign. Hopefully for the Liberals she could win the seat as she seems relatively neutral in comparison to the duds who’ve ran here before (Pathi, Green, especially Diaz).
Re Box Hill
You mean the new part added from Mitchell?
Still bad on the results map.
But every where else Labor won.
Green way 8% to alp
Mitchell 10% to alp
@mick labor are not getting a swing o them in either mitchell or greenway. id say 6% swing to libs in both
The Liberal campaign is much more active in Greenway then Mitchell. Virk plans to knock every door. I doubt the swing will be the same.
@ben if the lib get anything higher then a 6% swing in greenway theyve probably won the seat
Margin 8% Greenway
Was posting re what happened 2022
Not a prediction
Both held by current parties
the margin in green way was 11% but was wittled down to 7.5% after redistribution
Rattan Virk is another Hawke-ite. Enough said…
Rattan Virk is certainly making her presence known, much more active than Michelle Rowland’s campaign from what I’ve seen.
She comes across as quite professional, approachable and straight forward – but I think there’s a big mountain to climb given Michelle Rowland’s profile in the community.
One thing to note is the mass of new families arriving in Greenway into new housing estates, especially around Tallawong and Box Hill. They likely won’t know Michelle Rowland in comparison to places like The Ponds or Blacktown. The Liberals have a good opportunity here.
Agree, James. Tallawong/Schofields/Box Hill is where there has been rapid population growth, and is the area most likely to be affected by issues such as cost of living and infrastructure.
Whereas residents in Glenwood, Kellyville Ridge, Stanhope Gardens, and The Ponds have well established schooling infrastructure, easy access to the M1 Metro Line and likely to have paid down more of their mortgage, whilst seeing a rapid increase in property values, so less impacted by inflation and CoL. I’d suspect healthcare would be a more pressing issue around there.
I took a look at 2019 result but used the new boundaries. It was a virtual dead heat. This makes me wonder if the relative safety of the seat is overstated. My thinking is that 2019 was hardley a Liberal high point and there is the potential for anyone who switches their vote once to switch again. That combined with new families and high mortgage rates makes me think this is in play.
@david agreed but if dutton is winning this seat hes in majotity. atm il say labor marginal retain.
David, I did my own estimates of the results since 2004 on the 2025 boundaries – it’s the dotted line in the chart. In 2019 it would’ve been 51-49 to Liberal.
Not sure Virk is going to convert many votes in the older, lower SES areas of Greenway. She hasn’t set foot in those areas. Her campaigning has been purely focused on newly developed areas which coincidently have higher numbers of Indian Australian’s and higher SES. Rowland can’t do too much at the point. Stuckey gosh… bit embarrassing to be honest.
On the new boundaries, the only low-SES part of Greenway is Lalor Park (and the small bits of Blacktown and Seven Hills surrounding it). It’s a glaring misfit in what is now on the whole a relatively high-SES electorate.