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Another seat where I’m expecting a large swing against Labor as the incumbent Brendan O’Connor is retiring and lots of mortgage house here.
Agree SpaceFish and with fewer Muslims there is less likely to be a swing to Greens/Victorian socialists unlike Calwell which could improve the TPP in some booths.
I assume Labor hold but with 54-57% TPP under the current climate. Please note there was already a big swing against Labor in 2022 especially among Southern and Eastern European Voters.
@Marh Judging by the by election results on the weekend it will be closer to 54% and might be less.
@marh with the loss of a long term mps personal vote and col, labor going backwards in vic along with an unpopular state govt id say 54 is probably the best they can hope for. serious problems for labor here in 2028 if labor hangs on to govt
I feel with the recent Werribee by-election, this seat could swing quite hard against Labor. The demographics here are nearly identical to Werribee: mortgage belt, young families, infrastructure/transport concerns.
A Liberal win is usually impossible but if they run a good campaign and capitalise on O’Connor’s retirement I can see them getting close this election and 2028 they could win it. Might as well also mention their 2022 candidate John Fletcher is running again for the Liberals. A 2025 win can happen though but a lot would need to go right.
A 2025 win can’t be ruled out but I think they will hold it marginally. If labor maintains government against the odds they will face a similar wipe out to the coalition in 2022
The MRP poll shows this will be close
And another Liberal candidate, this time for Gorton.
https://vic.liberal.org.au/team/john-fletcher