ALP 10.0%
Incumbent MP
Brendan O’Connor, since 2004. Previously Member for Burke 2001-2004.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Gorton covers parts of of the City of Melton and parts of the City of Brimbank. As well as Melton, Gorton covers the suburbs of Aintree, Caroline Springs, Derrimut, Keilor Downs, Kings Park, Sydenham, Taylors Hill and Taylors Lakes.
Redistribution
Gorton contracted slightly on its north-eastern corner, losing the areas north-east of the Calder Freeway, including Hawke, to Keilor North. This change made no difference to the seat margin.
History
Gorton was created at the 2004 election. The seat replaced the abolished seat of Burke, which sat in the same part of Melbourne. It is named after former Prime Minister John Gorton, who died in 2002. In its short history Gorton has been a very safe Labor seat, as was its predecessor seat of Burke.
Burke was created for the 1969 election. It was largely a safe seat, although it was considered marginal for much of the 1980s. It was held by Keith Johnson until 1980, followed by Andrew Theophanous from 1980 to 1984, when he moved to the new seat of Calwell, which he held until 2001. The seat was then held by Neil O’Keefe from 1984 to 2001. O’Keefe served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the second term of the Keating government.
In 2001, Burke was won by Brendan O’Connor, an official with the Australian Services Union, and O’Connor won the renamed Gorton in 2004. O’Connor has held Gorton ever since. O’Connor served as a minister from 2007 to 2013, and again from 2022 until he stepped down in 2024.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Brendan O’Connor is not running for re-election.
Assessment
Gorton is a safe seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brendan O’Connor | Labor | 38,178 | 41.3 | -10.1 | 41.3 |
| John Fletcher | Liberal | 25,350 | 27.4 | -0.6 | 27.4 |
| Praise Morris | Greens | 8,325 | 9.0 | +1.6 | 9.0 |
| Michael Virag | United Australia | 7,082 | 7.7 | +0.4 | 7.7 |
| Daniel Connor | One Nation | 6,719 | 7.3 | +7.3 | 7.3 |
| Steven J Loncar | Independent | 2,341 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 2.5 |
| Belle Gibson | Victorian Socialists | 2,064 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 2.2 |
| Tony Dobran | Great Australian Party | 1,312 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 1.4 |
| Paul Lassig | Federation Party | 1,063 | 1.2 | +1.2 | 1.2 |
| Informal | 7,089 | 7.1 | +1.0 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Brendan O’Connor | Labor | 55,434 | 60.0 | -4.3 | 60.0 |
| John Fletcher | Liberal | 37,000 | 40.0 | +4.3 | 40.0 |
Polling places have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.0% in the north-east to 63.8% in the south.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 10.2 | 63.8 | 13,231 | 14.3 |
| North-East | 9.3 | 54.0 | 11,695 | 12.7 |
| North-West | 9.5 | 59.5 | 10,064 | 10.9 |
| Pre-poll | 8.1 | 60.3 | 38,029 | 41.2 |
| Other votes | 9.6 | 60.7 | 19,322 | 20.9 |
Election results in Gorton at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.
Another seat where I’m expecting a large swing against Labor as the incumbent Brendan O’Connor is retiring and lots of mortgage house here.
Agree SpaceFish and with fewer Muslims there is less likely to be a swing to Greens/Victorian socialists unlike Calwell which could improve the TPP in some booths.
I assume Labor hold but with 54-57% TPP under the current climate. Please note there was already a big swing against Labor in 2022 especially among Southern and Eastern European Voters.
@Marh Judging by the by election results on the weekend it will be closer to 54% and might be less.
@marh with the loss of a long term mps personal vote and col, labor going backwards in vic along with an unpopular state govt id say 54 is probably the best they can hope for. serious problems for labor here in 2028 if labor hangs on to govt
I feel with the recent Werribee by-election, this seat could swing quite hard against Labor. The demographics here are nearly identical to Werribee: mortgage belt, young families, infrastructure/transport concerns.
A Liberal win is usually impossible but if they run a good campaign and capitalise on O’Connor’s retirement I can see them getting close this election and 2028 they could win it. Might as well also mention their 2022 candidate John Fletcher is running again for the Liberals. A 2025 win can happen though but a lot would need to go right.
A 2025 win can’t be ruled out but I think they will hold it marginally. If labor maintains government against the odds they will face a similar wipe out to the coalition in 2022
The MRP poll shows this will be close
And another Liberal candidate, this time for Gorton.
https://vic.liberal.org.au/team/john-fletcher
Dutton visited here today, it appears the Liberals feel they have a chance. Labor is still sagging in the individual state polls in Victoria and NSW, the is a chance Labor gets a swing in some of those marginals seats in Eastern Melbourne and Northern Sydney but gets whacked out this way and in western Sydney.
There will be a big swing here not as many Muslims here unlike Calwell so less likely to be as big increase in Green vote. Neighbouring Hawke is a better prospect and i think Dutton visited here on the way to Hawke.
Outside of Deer Park, this does contain many of the better Liberal areas in this part of Melbourne (Caroline Springs, Keilor, Taylors Lakes, etc).
Not completely ridiculous for the Liberals to at least be strongly competitive here.