ALP 0.2%
Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.
Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.
Redistribution
Gilmore contracted very slightly at its southern border, losing Tuross Head to Eden-Monaro. This change made no difference to Labor’s margin.
History
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.
The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.
Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.
Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.
In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.
Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.
Phillips faced a strong challenge for re-election in 2022. State Bega MP Andrew Constance, who had also been Minister for Transport, quit state parliament to challenge Phillips. Constance gained a 2.4% swing but fell less than 400 votes short of winning.
Assessment
Gilmore is Labor’s most marginal seat, and Constance is running again. There is a real chance Constance could win Gilmore at this election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 46,941 | 42.0 | +12.8 | 42.0 |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 40,175 | 36.0 | -0.2 | 35.9 |
| Carmel McCallum | Greens | 11,417 | 10.2 | +0.3 | 10.2 |
| Nina Digiglio | Independent | 4,721 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 4.2 |
| Jerremy Eid | One Nation | 4,453 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| Jordan Maloney | United Australia | 3,108 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 2.8 |
| Adrian Fadini | Liberal Democrats | 890 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 5,170 | 4.4 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 56,039 | 50.2 | -2.4 | 50.2 |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 55,666 | 49.8 | +2.4 | 49.8 |
Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of thoe five areas, ranging from 51.6% in Ulladulla to 54.3% in Kiama. The Liberal Party polled 50.4% in Batemans Bay.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.2% in Nowra to 18.2% in Kiama. The Greens did much better in Kiama than in the rest of the electorate.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nowra | 10.2 | 52.5 | 13,149 | 12.0 |
| Batemans Bay | 10.8 | 49.6 | 7,653 | 7.0 |
| Jervis Bay | 10.4 | 53.7 | 7,134 | 6.5 |
| Ulladulla | 11.2 | 51.6 | 6,071 | 5.5 |
| Kiama | 18.2 | 54.3 | 5,992 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 9.3 | 49.2 | 55,037 | 50.1 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 48.0 | 14,716 | 13.4 |
Election results in Gilmore at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Constance seems to be a bit of a flip flopper when it comes to climate change. Like he believed it when he was fighting the fires in 2020 and then recently just said that he’s changed his mind and that Australia should drop the 2035 emissions target and pull out of Paris.
I’m sure the good people of Nelligen, Batemans’ Bay, Kiama, Shoalhaven area who’ve lost their houses and lives in Black Summer will appreciate those remarks given what they’ve gone through, but no apparently off-short wind farms are more harmful than natural disasters that have evidently worsened in frequency and intensity in recent years. Give me a break.
They’ll probably vote him in given the slim margin, but Constance is no saint.
off-shore sorry
Did anyone see the Daily Telegraph and Sky News reports about an exit poll where there has been a large primary vote increase for Labor and drop for Liberal?
I wouldn’t put much trust into small sample exit polls