ALP 0.2%
Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.
Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.
Redistribution
Gilmore contracted very slightly at its southern border, losing Tuross Head to Eden-Monaro. This change made no difference to Labor’s margin.
History
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.
The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.
Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.
Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.
In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.
Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.
Phillips faced a strong challenge for re-election in 2022. State Bega MP Andrew Constance, who had also been Minister for Transport, quit state parliament to challenge Phillips. Constance gained a 2.4% swing but fell less than 400 votes short of winning.
Assessment
Gilmore is Labor’s most marginal seat, and Constance is running again. There is a real chance Constance could win Gilmore at this election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 46,941 | 42.0 | +12.8 | 42.0 |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 40,175 | 36.0 | -0.2 | 35.9 |
| Carmel McCallum | Greens | 11,417 | 10.2 | +0.3 | 10.2 |
| Nina Digiglio | Independent | 4,721 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 4.2 |
| Jerremy Eid | One Nation | 4,453 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| Jordan Maloney | United Australia | 3,108 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 2.8 |
| Adrian Fadini | Liberal Democrats | 890 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 5,170 | 4.4 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 56,039 | 50.2 | -2.4 | 50.2 |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 55,666 | 49.8 | +2.4 | 49.8 |
Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of thoe five areas, ranging from 51.6% in Ulladulla to 54.3% in Kiama. The Liberal Party polled 50.4% in Batemans Bay.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.2% in Nowra to 18.2% in Kiama. The Greens did much better in Kiama than in the rest of the electorate.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nowra | 10.2 | 52.5 | 13,149 | 12.0 |
| Batemans Bay | 10.8 | 49.6 | 7,653 | 7.0 |
| Jervis Bay | 10.4 | 53.7 | 7,134 | 6.5 |
| Ulladulla | 11.2 | 51.6 | 6,071 | 5.5 |
| Kiama | 18.2 | 54.3 | 5,992 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 9.3 | 49.2 | 55,037 | 50.1 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 48.0 | 14,716 | 13.4 |
Election results in Gilmore at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Liberal gain, the individual polling has 56.2/43.8. Fiona Phillips doesn’t seem to have cut through as a local member despite being there for 5 years now.
@Spacefish agree, this is very likely to fall.
Any ideas on why the Liberal Party vote has collapsed in Southeastern NSW?
@watson watch,
What do you mean?
@watson watch – are you referring to the South Coast?
james (irelxnd),
Bega, South Coast, Eden-Monaro and Gilmore. Might add Goulburn to the list – they still hold it, but in 2023, the coalition 2pp was the second lowest in my lifetime – in 1978 it was marginally lower.
@Watson Watch:
* Bega votes with sitting members. Andrew Constance was very popular there and held that seat forever and the Liberals lost his personal vote to Michael Holland (though I think if the election was during COVID and Gladys was still leader then Bega would be a Liberal seat still).
* Goulburn: Goulburn (the city itself) has some bellwether voters so that probably explains it but Wendy Tuckerman still holds the seat for the Liberals.
* Kiama: Gareth Ward was kicked out of the Liberals and became an independent because of criminal offences. The new Liberal candidate was endorsed at the last minute and it was Melanie Gibbons who was parachuted in. She was actually retiring as the member for Holsworthy which is in the Liverpool area of Sydney (now held by Liberal Tina Ayyad) so it was clearly very very rushed. They almost ran dead there. Kiama will swing back to the Liberals in 2027.
* Monaro: bellwether seat.
* South Coast: again another loss of a personal vote (Shelley Hancock), this one was a shocker though so I would expect it to flip back in 2027 especially since Liza Butler isn’t really a good MP.
In Eden-Monaro, Kristie McBain has a personal vote (especially around Bega and Queanbeyan) and has been visible in the community. Fiona Phillips (the member for Gilmore) on the other hand (who did do well in and around Kiama and the Shoalhaven (Nowra-Bomaderry) area), while she seems like she’s been okay, hasn’t been visible in the electorate much so she hasn’t built up a profile so with Andrew Constance as the candidate he’ll probably win. He’s got a big personal vote (the fires helped that since he was affected by them), especially in the Eurobodalla region (around Batemans Bay).
The South Coast really likes sitting MPs, especially on the federal level. In 2013 which was a Coalition landslide and one of the Coalition’s best ever results in NSW, while Ann Sudmalis was elected as the MP (as a Liberal), there was a small swing against the Liberals because of Joanna Gash’s retirement. In 2019 (when Nationals candidate Katrina Hodgkinson also ran), Labor won because the Liberals parachuted in Warren Mundine.
@Watson Watch – Take these comments with a grain of salt. I don’t live on the South Coast but these are my observations.
The main one is demographic change. The South Coast is very tourism-dominated, which in recent years has brought in a lot of holidaymakers during summer months. But some of these people end up moving to the South Coast permanently. Basically this is how sea-change works. These people come from urban areas, and typically are quite affluent (the reason why house prices are so high), and most importantly have a more progressive stance on social issues. There is some level of alternative lifestyle on the South Coast, but there’s also a lot of young progressives and moderate retirees.
This has most certainly seen a shift in terms of voting in recent years. As NP explained, the South Coast as a whole loves incumbent MPs, and the Liberal MPs especially (Hancock, Gash, Constance, Ward, to a minimal extent Sudmalis) all have demonstrated an above-average popularity with their electorates, which is why these seats have been so safe during their tenures and swung hard when they retired, except with Ward who hung on due to a pretty incompetent Liberal campaign in 2023 preventing a significant vote split.
I think demographic change and inflated personal votes are usually the main reasons for why the South Coast has become worse for the Liberals in recent years. But I’m curious to see if there are any other factors?
@James I think that’s mostly it. A lot of sea changers from Sydney and Wollongong go to the South Coast and parts of it are quite touristy. Eden-Monaro is touristy because of the ski resorts too which have skiing in winter (ski season is usually mid to late June to late September as that is the wettest time of the year, May and early June don’t have as much precipitation so it snows but not enough to ski) and in summer they have lots of mountain biking (at least at Thredbo, where Mount Kosciuszko is).
Agree with the predictions above – Liberal gain. Labor has higher-margin seats that they probably would rather sandbag. I sense Labor will easily hold Eden-Monaro.
Have to agree that Gilmore is as good as gone unless Constance has an unforgivable gaffe which is unlikely. If Fiona Phillips had been more high profile or visible she could possibly hold it but this seat is surely bound to be the first to go.
Also agree that Eden-Monaro should be held by Kristy McBain who’s quite popular despite the lower margin now that Goulburn’s in it.
Nether Portal,
Do you write this nonsense yourself, or do you have computer program that generates it for you?
There are two problems with trying to invent modern history. Firstly, there are plenty of accurate records that can easily disprove your claims. Secondly, there are plenty of people around with first hand experience of the events you are trying to rewrite.
Disagree this will be liberal gain. Alp is united the liberal party is the reverse.
Constance gives me the impression he is brittle
Should read Disagree that this will be liberal gain
@mick are you cracked? Phillips is gone. Constance almost won and came within 400 votes in 2022. He managed a 2.4% swing in a year the liberals were thrown out of govt and almost won the seat against the trend.
@votante i wouldn’t say easily but yea the will hold it by about 3% i think.
@spacefish it only elected her over scomos debacle captains pick in 2019 and I think some people voted Labor over mundine out of protest. The lib candidate would have otherwise won and tbh i think Mundine would win if he were the candidate in 2025 too now with his increased profile.
To be frank, this is a seat I see as a Liberal gain. Constance is high-profile, and will have strong popularity especially around Batemans Bay/Eurobodalla LGA. Phillips was only re-elected because of Greens preferences and the bushfires causing a lot of anti-ScoMo resentment. ScoMo is gone, the Greens are unpopular as hell in Shoalhaven. Liberal gain unless Constance punches a nun or makes a horrible gaffe.
James (irelxnd),
Why do you believe the Balmain blow-in would be popular around Batemans Bay/Eurobodalla LGA?
When Liberal Party HQ dumped him in the seat of Bega, against the wishes of the locals, the Eurobodalla Mayor quit the Liberal Party and ran as an independent.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-fights-liberal-in-a-dirty-campaign-20030313-gdgf3a.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/everywhere-libs-turn-an-independent-20030315-gdgfiu.html
@Watson Watch – the article you sent me was from 2003, when Constance was first elected. Of course he would have had some level of controversy.
Look at the results in Bega since and Gilmore in 2022. Constance is quite popular and dominated the Batemans Bay booths (not a single one there was Labor). He’s held Bega on safe margins ever since and when he retired the seat flipped.
Agree James, Andrew constance is popular in the area having held onto the local state seat and even secured a swing to him when the rest of the country (and neighbouring Eden monaro) swung fairly hard to Labor.
The only minor controversy which might still affect constance could be his handling of the nsw transport portfolio during his time as a Minister.
‘Quite popular’ is interesting term to describe an ‘also-ran’.
Andrew Constance has that special ability to a safe seat Liberal Party seat into a marginal. He quit state parliament when pressure from the local community over hospital cuts became too great. He was a senior minister in the government that was making the cuts. Instead of standing up to his ministerial colleagues, he cut and run. There was a 12% swing in the resulting by-election, which was fought almost entirely on the hospital issue.
He has made two attempts at being selected to fill a casual senate vacancy and was rejected by the Liberal Party on both occasions. In 2020, he tried for Liberal Party preselection for Eden-Monaro by-election and was rejected.
It is pretty clear the Liberal Party do not see Andrew Constance as a winning candidate. Why are the Liberal Party unable to find a viable candidate for a former safe seat?
@Watson Watch – Firstly, he resigned from state parliament when it was clear he wanted Gilmore preselection and mostly had the numbers to win it. He never stated he resigned over community issues at all.
Second, he was convinced not to contest the Eden-Monaro by-election because there was a belief that he should stay in state politics, plus was convinced out of the preselection by John Barilaro (Nationals MP for Monaro) through rude text messages.
@JOHN
I don’t think I am cracked
I don’t think Constance is a certainty by any means.
James (irelxnd),
You summed it up nicely – he was only interested in what he wanted and didn’t care about the community he was elected to serve.
The Bega by-election showed what the community thought of his selfish actions.
My guess is the Liberal Party has already written this seat off and don’t want to waste resources on running a campaign.
@Watson Watch instead of personal attacks that I have to read at 1:00am, why don’t you explain what “nonsense” you think I’m saying?
Are you saying that there aren’t tree changers on the South Coast or that tourism doesn’t exist there?
I also don’t think it’s fair to call him selfish. He’s worked his ass off for the Eurobodalla community for over 20 years which is why he nearly won Gilmore. He’s a moderate too by the way. When Scomo was in Hawaii, Andrew Constance’s house was burning down.
I feel like you’re ragebaiting at this point.
@mick he only lost by less then 400 votes in 2022 managing a swing towards when most of nsw swang away hard. if labor cant put any distance between them and him in 2022 which was a bad year for the libs in particular what makes you think 200 people wont jump the fence in a year when labor is doing badly and could even lose govt after term and flip this seat?
@watson watch the by election result was the result of an aging state govt and the loss of a members personal vote. people often vote against the govt at by elections especially when it has no chance of changing the govt,
ANDREW CONSTANCE will be the next member for GILMORE
I’ve been in the Eurobodalla parts of Gilmore over the last week or so and neither candidate really has a presence at all. I’m pretty sure Labor have given up
If Gilmore was further up near Wollongong and Shellharbour then I would’ve considered this as a Labor retain but with the boundaries the way it is (what with Shoalhaven and South Coast included) it’s all but inevitable that this will flip.
To assume because of the small 2022 margin that this is a”certainty” is wide of the mark.The longer a mp stays in a marginal seat esp in country areas the more likely they are to retains Constance looking at things seems to have a sort of brittleness to him.
@Mick this seat is a tradition Liberal seat and was only really lost due to the misstep by Scotty of parachuting Mundine on top of the preferred and chosen Liberal candidate and there was clearly anger over that decision. Otherwise this would have remained Liberal in 2019 and 2022. So this will just be a correction back to the status quo.
In 1978 there was a nsw election . The seat of Albury was narrowly won by Labor
This seat was retained by the alp mp till 1988 when Greiner won government.
Gilmore won alp in 1993 not won again till
2019.
The margins varied between 64% and less than 5% either way see Wikipedia.
The liberal party is a basket case in the Gilmore area .. Rogan ward Schultz Ann Samalis Johanna Gash….
The wonder is that they came close prior to 2019
@mick id be willing to be bet my first born that constance wins this.
@mick 1993 was a particularly good year for labor when Hewson made a meal of describing GST , 2019 the libs tried to parachute a candidate in the same way Labor did in fowler in 2022, constance gave it a really good go and went against the trend and managed a 2.4% swing where they went backwards everywhere else. Statewide the swing was 3.2% to Labor. For that reason this and any seat that’s classified as marginal where the Libs gained significant ground is now under threat and likely be lost in a year when Labor goes backwards. Seats like McEwen, Lingiari, Lyons, Paterson all experience swings to the Liberals in a year they went backwards and therefore short get further swings in a year when labor goes backwards. Seats like Bruce, Hawke, Holt, Parramatta, Whitlam, Dobell, Shortland, Hunter, Blair, Greenway, Macquarie, Eden monaro will be vulnerable to swi gs but probably not enough to unseat the members in one go.