ALP 0.2%
Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.
Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.
Redistribution
Gilmore contracted very slightly at its southern border, losing Tuross Head to Eden-Monaro. This change made no difference to Labor’s margin.
History
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.
The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.
Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.
Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.
In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.
Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.
Phillips faced a strong challenge for re-election in 2022. State Bega MP Andrew Constance, who had also been Minister for Transport, quit state parliament to challenge Phillips. Constance gained a 2.4% swing but fell less than 400 votes short of winning.
- Andrew Constance (Liberal)
- Kate Dezarnaulds (Independent)
- Fiona Phillips (Labor)
Assessment
Gilmore is Labor’s most marginal seat, and Constance is running again. There is a real chance Constance could win Gilmore at this election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 46,941 | 42.0 | +12.8 | 42.0 |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 40,175 | 36.0 | -0.2 | 35.9 |
| Carmel McCallum | Greens | 11,417 | 10.2 | +0.3 | 10.2 |
| Nina Digiglio | Independent | 4,721 | 4.2 | +4.2 | 4.2 |
| Jerremy Eid | One Nation | 4,453 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 4.0 |
| Jordan Maloney | United Australia | 3,108 | 2.8 | -0.6 | 2.8 |
| Adrian Fadini | Liberal Democrats | 890 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 5,170 | 4.4 | -0.8 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Fiona Phillips | Labor | 56,039 | 50.2 | -2.4 | 50.2 |
| Andrew Constance | Liberal | 55,666 | 49.8 | +2.4 | 49.8 |
Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in four out of thoe five areas, ranging from 51.6% in Ulladulla to 54.3% in Kiama. The Liberal Party polled 50.4% in Batemans Bay.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.2% in Nowra to 18.2% in Kiama. The Greens did much better in Kiama than in the rest of the electorate.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nowra | 10.2 | 52.5 | 13,149 | 12.0 |
| Batemans Bay | 10.8 | 49.6 | 7,653 | 7.0 |
| Jervis Bay | 10.4 | 53.7 | 7,134 | 6.5 |
| Ulladulla | 11.2 | 51.6 | 6,071 | 5.5 |
| Kiama | 18.2 | 54.3 | 5,992 | 5.5 |
| Pre-poll | 9.3 | 49.2 | 55,037 | 50.1 |
| Other votes | 9.8 | 48.0 | 14,716 | 13.4 |
Election results in Gilmore at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
John
Sure the last part is not right always
A
1 lib
2 alp
Would not have been difficult
@mick but they wont becuase they dont care what happens after number 1 because after that its not there problem and im sure some parts of the liberal party want Mr Ward to come back if he were to be acquitted. they are not just gonna hand labor another seat
As a resident of Eden-Monaro (which shares a fair portion of its demography and culture with South Coast), it’s hard to see a path to victory for Phillips.
I went to Question Time today (possibly the last before the election) and noticed she was given a dixer, which means the ALP are looking to bolster her public profile in the House, but doesn’t indicate that they’re going to put many resources behind her on the campaign trail.
In the seat to the south, Mike Kelly managed to come back after losing his seat to Peter Hendy, which indicates perhaps that the good people of south-east NSW aren’t opposed to second chances. However, he didn’t vacate the seat to try and pinch a Federal job, as Constance did. And when Kelly did retire for “health reasons” and went on to take a job in the weapons industry immediately after, he was criticised quite a bit by his former constituents. Perhaps, like Kelly, Constance will be rebuked for his blatant greasy pole climbing shenanigans since leaving the state seat.
Whether Phillips benefits from incumbency more than Constance will benefit from a nationwide pro-Lib swing will be interesting to see.
I’d still put the house on a Lib win without a second thought, particularly when, as others have mentioned, the local Labor Party seem like they’re just going through the paces.
@Tim she’s been continuously given Dixers all week. Clearly shows they’re cooked and they know it
Last opinion poll I saw for her was 56-44 TPP to the Liberals.
I don’t think she’s cooked. She’s burnt.
Pity Labor doesn’t have a high profile member they could shuffle into contending the seat like they did with Rebecca White in Lyons. It’s a travesty for Labor that one of their only gains in 2019 will soon become one of their inevitable losses when they could’ve prevented it with a high profile candidate/MP.
I called this seat for Constance on May 23rd 2022
Sky news will be holding a pubtest in Gilmore on the 24th do you think Phillips will turn up?
@john you were wrong?
Pub with no beer
No because the election hasn’t happened yet
I’ve been a resident of Gilmore for 15 years. I live in Berry which is a Labor write-off. Earlier I was posting on the Whitlam page which is shaping up to be a close race.
I think Labor is done, regardless of how hard Phillips works. I see her “out and about” at almost everything and she seems personally popular. Despite her personal popularity and huge work ethic, I don’t reckon this is enough to save her.
The trend nationally is massively in favour of the Liberals. Every poll gets worse for Labor. I don’t think Phillips will lose because of her efforts as an MP, I reckon she’ll lose because of the national anti-Labor trend and cost of living issues.
I met Phillips at a street stall once. She was very passionate and a true local. I’m not a “party-voting” person, I vote for the candidate themselves. I do hope I’m wrong and Phillips is successful, especially because I can’t stand Constance.
Elliot. This was a traditional liberal voting seat but Scott screwed that up by trying to insert Mundine. 2022 saw a correction despite the. Swing to labor elsewhere but the anti lib/scomo vote saved her, 2025 will see a return to status quo
People won’t be voting against Phillips but rather against labor or for the libs/constance